Gold edges lower as fund managers look for 2027 rally
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Arkle Resources (ARK LN) – Drilling accelerated at Erongo
Caravel Minerals (CVV AU) – Mining study completed for Caravel copper DFS
Kodal Minerals*(KOD LN) – BUY, 0.85p – Softer 2Q26 output but Bougouni starts to deliver cash
Perseus Mining (PRU AU) – Positive surprises from Yaoure
Total Graphite, formerly Tirupati (TGR LN) – Graphite production suspended pending drilling, mine planning and plant optimisation at Vatomina in Madagasca
Gold ($3,997/oz) edges lower as fund managers look for 2027 rally
- Gold continues to oscillate around $4,000/oz with limited catalysts since Tuesday’s CPI data.
- Trump’s increased military rhetoric against Iran is reducing confidence in a long-term peace solution with gold falling on escalated tensions in the Gulf.
- US dollar strength on infrastructure strikes in Iran and reimposition of the blockade of Iranian ports may raise global inflation.
- Rising US Treasury yields and some easing of perceived risk with some ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has softened gold.
- The US hit an oil tanker carrying Iranian oil while Iranian strikes in the Strait of Hormuz also caused the number of vessels transiting to slow with just 10 ships reported to pass through over the past 24 hours.
- Around 250 vessels are still waiting to pass through the Strait.
- The pullback is muted with lower-than-expected inflation in the US reducing the risk of a near-term interest rate hike.
- Further kinetic action in the region raises the risk of oil, naphtha, sulphur, aluminium and other shortages raising the potential for energy shortages and higher inflation globally
- Fidelity have stated they plan to start rebuilding gold positions in anticipation of a 2027 rally (Bloomberg)
Copper ($13,458/t) – IEA warns supply outlook has worsened considerably on acid shortages
- The IEA says copper’s near-term outlook has worsened sharply on sulphuric acid shortages.
- Hormuz closure and China’s acid export ban threaten SX/EW output which accounts for >15% of primary copper supply.
- The DRC and Chile are most exposed, with c.1.5mt and 1.2mt of leached production respectively.
- The IEA still sees a shortfall of 25% in mine supply by 2035, despite a number of new African projects.
Lithium – Zijin starts Congo’s first lithium exports, shipping all volumes to China
- China’s Zijin has begun exporting lithium concentrate from its Manono project in the DRC, Reuters reports.
- Zijin is targeting ~30kt of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026, with capacity for c.1mt a year of spodumene concentrate.
- Ownership of Manono remains disputed after the DRC revoked AVZ Minerals’ permit, with Zijin holding 54.9% of the new venture.
- The exports extend China’s grip on Congo’s critical minerals alongside CMOC and Huayou Cobalt.
Nickel ($16,770/t) – Philippines eyes Canada trade deals to challenge Indonesia’s dominance
- The Philippine Nickel Industry Association said a free trade deals with Canada will help diversify nickel supply.
- Canada aims to conclude the agreements with the Philippines and ASEAN by the end of 2026.
- Indonesia produced 66.6% of the world’s mined nickel in 2025, while the Philippines supplied 7.9%.
- Nickel prices recovered 2-3% after Indonesia ruled out a significant quota increase.
Potash – Demand headed for record 81mt in 2027 as affordability favours use
- Potash demand is set to reach a record 81mt in 2027, passing 2025’s record of 78.1mt (Bloomberg).
- Farmers are prioritising potash over more expensive nitrogen and phosphate, catching up on the application of fertilizer skipped in 2022.
- Prices have firmed 9% year to date, lifted by higher freight as vessels avoid Hormuz.
- Laos shipped 2.4mt to China in 1H, up 72% on 1H25, at an average $17/t discount to rival suppliers.
- BHP’s new Jansen mine in Canada is due to ship first potash in 2027, adding supply beyond today’s top producers Nutrien, Mosaic and K+S.
Rare earths – Malaysian parliament scrutinises Lynas’ Pentagon supply deal
- A Malaysian parliamentary committee is reviewing Lynas’ four-year agreement to supply rare-earth oxides to the US Pentagon.
- The committee met on 16 July, hearing from ministry officials, NGOs and Lynas executives.
- Lynas, one of only two major rare-earth producers outside China, processes material at its Malaysian plant.
- More than 20 civil-society groups oppose the deal.
- The committee urged the government to state an official position within two weeks.
Uranium – China’s nuclear fleet to grow 40% by 2030, lifting uranium needs
- China’s nuclear capacity is set to rise 40% to over 100GW by 2030 on a committed reactor pipeline (Bloomberg).
- Nuclear power could supply 22% of China’s electricity by 2045, up from 5% today.
- Chinese uranium demand is expected to reach c.40ktpa by 2040, with imports covering over 70% of needs.
- China splits uranium supply equally between domestic mines, direct imports and stakes in foreign miners.
- The expansion deepens China’s reliance on uranium imports from Kazakhstan and Namibia.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.20% | at | 52,553 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -4.03% | at | 64,141 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -2.06% | at | 24,493 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -3.05% | at | 3,764 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -2.0 | at | 4.53 |
Currencies
US$1.1445/eur vs1.1469/eur previous. Yen 162.20/$ vs 162.13/$. SAr 16.468/$ vs 16.336/$. $1.346/gbp vs$1.354/gbp. 0.699/aud vs 0.700/aud.
CNY 6.776/$ vs6.770/$. Dollar Index 100.69 vs100.50 previous.
Economics
US – Military strikes on Iran escalated overnight with US forces striking deeper inside the Islamic republic.
- US is reported to have hit infrastructure including six bridges in a southern port, a railway and an airport.
- More infrastructure strikes are suggested unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table.
- American forces on Wednesday struck a tanker headed for Kharg Isnad, marking the first time the US hit a commercial vessel since reimposing the blockade.
- IRGC said it retaliated by targeting US special operation bases in Syria and Kuwait as well as radar systems in Oman.
- Iran’s army also targeted an air base in Bahrain.
- Brent at ~$85 and is set to post a >10% gain for the week, the most since April.
Iran – US strikes on infrastructure in retaliation to strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Many Iranian’s are asking why their regime is fighting the US?
- While most Iranian’s don’t have any say in policy we believe certain factions within government now oppose the ongoing strikes against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
Yemen – Iran asking Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route in the US hits Iranian power infrastructure.
- Houthis are suggested to be considering attacking ships by deploying missiles and drones near Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- Representatives of IRGC who are in Yemen will control the decision on the strait, Reuters quoted the source close to Houthis.
UK – Andy Burnham is set to be announced as new leader of the governing Labour Party today on course to becoming PM
- Burnam leaves the City of Manchester with an additional £289m of debt taking the total city borrowing to £1.6bn.
- This places Manchester among the UK’s most indebted councils as national local authority debt hits £122bn.
- This compares with China where total local authority debt ranges from $10-14 trillion (~127% of GDP).
Ukraine – President Zelensky is facing a major dissent following a decision to remove his defence minister,
- The firing of 35yo Mykhailo Fedorov just six months in led to demonstrations across Ukrain yesterday and the resignation of a senior air force commander, FT reports.
- Zelensky party said that lawmakers could no get enough support for his preferred candidate (Ihor Klymenko, a former Interior Minister) with the president forced into a concession.
- Acting head of Ukraine’s SBU security service, Yevhenii Khmara, will act a new interim defense minister.
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,997/oz vsUS$4,031/oz previous
Gold ETFs 96.4moz vs96.4moz previous
Platinum US$1,585/oz vsUS$1,666/oz previous
Palladium US$1,236/oz vsUS$1,304/oz previous
Silver US$55.5/oz vsUS$57.2/oz previous
Silver ETFs 784.1moz vs784.1moz previous
Rhodium US$8,250/oz vsUS$8,100/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,458/t vsUS$13,621/t previous
Aluminium US$3,161/t vsUS$3,172/t previous
Nickel US$16,770/t vsUS$17,260/t previous
Zinc US$3,545/t vsUS$3,573/t previous
Lead US$1,868/t vsUS$1,873/t previous
Tin US$52,415/t vsUS$53,205/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$84.6/bbl vsUS$84.7/bbl previous
- European energy prices have risen to trade at the equivalent ~$110/boe this week on the back of continued supply disruptions and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and stronger power generation demand for cooling in Europe.
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged lower after the EIA reported a 41bcf w/w storage build to 3,024bcf, with US inventories down 1% y/y and 6% above the five-year average, as LNG export capacity rose 14bcf w/w to 131bcf.
Natural Gas €55.6/MWh vs€54.7/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.7/lb vs$85.3/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.2/t vsUS$100.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.2/t vsUS$470.2/t
HCC FOB Australia US$232.5/t vsUS$232.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$132.0/t vsUS$131.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vsUS$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$113,413/t vsUS$112,643/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$21,325/t vsUS$21,347/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,215/t vsUS$2,215/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vsUS$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vsUS$1,705/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vsUS$225/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vsUS$390/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.6/lb vsUS$5.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vsUS$27.0/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$210/t vsUS$211/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vsUS$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,158/t vsUS$1,160/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vsUS$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vsUS$397.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,095.0/kg vsUS$4,095.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$420.0/kg vsUS$420.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$32.0/lb vsUS$32.0/lb
EV & Battery news:
Hong Kong opens its first large-scale EV battery recycling plant
- Hong Kong has opened its first large-scale EV battery recycling facility, marking a significant step for its recycling and resource recovery efforts.
- The 100,000sqft facility can process up to 10,000t of batteries annually, roughly equivalent to the batteries from 20,000 EVs, using patented technology, automation, and AI to recover critical minerals including lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
- The resulting black mass will be supplied to mainland and overseas markets for use in battery production and other industrial applications.
- Hong Kong has around 180,000 registered EVs, as of May 2026, so it is to be seen whether the facility will be operating at full capacity from launch.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.7% | -0.9% | Freeport-McMoRan | -1.3% | -11.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.9% | -2.0% | Vale | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| Glencore | 2.1% | -2.6% | Newmont Mining | -1.7% | -7.2% |
| Anglo American | 2.6% | 0.3% | Fortescue | -1.9% | -0.6% |
| Antofagasta | 2.6% | 2.8% | Teck Resources | 0.0% | -8.2% |
Arkle Resources (ARK LN) 0.76p, Mkt Cap £12m – Drilling accelerated at Erongo
- Namibian uranium explorer Arkle has started drilling at its Erongo Project.
- The Company is undertaking an initial 1,500m RC programme.
- Initial drilling has intersected Carnotite, a secondary uranium mineral, in three holes across two fence lines.
- Carnotite was intersected between 4m and 15m, with assays pending to determine uranium content.
- Arkle is expanding the current programme program, accelerating holes planned for later in Q3.
- Additional drilling will target the western paleochannel, with step-out holes planned for the eastern paleochannel target.
- Additional drilling will also follow up on the recent trenching programme at the primary ULG target.
- 52 holes have now been drilled over 1,017m.
Caravel Minerals (CVV AU) A$0.24, Mkt Cap A$131m – Mining study completed for Caravel copper DFS
- Australian copper developer Caravel has completed the mining component of the DFS at its Caravel project in Western Australia.
- The study supports the updated ore reserve of 597mt at 0.24% Cu for 1.42mt of contained copper.
- The plan is a staged open-pit development of the Bindi and Dasher deposits, starting at Bindi.
- Pre-strip begins around 20 months ahead of first ore.
- Caravel hosts a resource of 1.28bnt at 0.24% Cu for 3.03mt of contained copper.
Kodal Minerals*(KOD LN) 0.30p, Mkt Cap £61m – Softer 2Q26 output but Bougouni starts to deliver cash
BUY – 0.85p
- The Company reported 2Q26 operational updated at the Bougouni Lithium Mine in Mali.
- 2Q26 highlights:
- 312kt at 1.1% Li2O mined
- 6.2x strip ratio
- 298kt at 1.0% Li2O throughput
- 46% overall recoveries
- 26.2kt SC5.3 produced
- Production came below budget as processing plant underperformed in May.
- The team reports maintenance and breakdown issues in the crushing circuit during the month.
- Operations continued as normal in June following repairs.
- Contractors mining equipment mobilised to the Ngoualana pit.
- No issues reported with availability of fuel or explosives.
- LMLB, an operating subsidiary, paid an initial $13m to the holding company KMUK (49% Kodal / 51% Hainan) starting repayments of Bougouni related capital expenditure.
- Funds will be used to pay down the majority of the Hainan finance facility.
- Concentrate shipment number three (20.5kt SC5.3) arrived to Hainan on 27 June with final payment expected shortly.
- The estimated final price for the third shipment indicated $2,304/SC6 CIF.
- Concentrate shipment number four (24.0kt) departed from the port of San Pedro (CDI) on 11 July and is expected to arrive in Hainan in late August.
- Regular shipments on concentrate are expected to continue at ~25kt every six weeks to two months
- Phase 2 involving development of the 2Mtpa flotation circuit is progressing with the team working with consultant engineers for the proposed design.
- Additional 20t sample is expected to be shipped for met testwork.
Conclusion: 2Q26 production underperforms on issues at the crushing circuit that are reported to have been addressed. Bougouni Phase 1 (DSO circuit only) delivered 26.2kt SC5.3 /23.3kt SC6E (SPAe: 27.5kt SC6E) reflecting low ~46% recoveries. Bougouni Phase 2 (flotation circuit addition) should address that with FS targeted for YE26 ahead of FID. On other fronts, lithium prices remain strong with the third shipment (20.5kt SC5.3 at $2,304/SC6 CIF) expected to gross ~$40m. That 24.0kt shipment to slip into 2H26 and assuming ~5.3% should be worth just under $45m at current spot prices ($2,150/SC6 CIF). The first payment from the LMLB ($13m) reflects Bougouni ramping up cash flows.
*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.
Perseus Mining (PRU AU) A$4.65, Mkt Cap A$6.2bn – Positive surprises from Yaoure
- African gold producer Perseus provides an update on its Yaoure operation.
- The Company notes the CMA underground its transitioning to operation, with an additional jumbo mobilised to boost ore delivery.
- The Yaoure open pit has identified over 24% more metal from the reserve model with additional areas of mineralisation identified.
- Drilling has boosted the Company’s confidence in extending the mine life.
- Perseus is committing $34m of additional capital to drilling in FY27 to increase the MRE.
Total Graphite, formerly Tirupati (TGR LN) 0.82p, Mkt cap £6.3m – Graphite production suspended pending drilling, mine planning and plant optimisation at Vatomina in Madagascar
- Total Graphite plc has conducted a review of its graphite assets in Madagascar and Mozambique.
- The review has reinforced management’s “belief that the Group possesses a portfolio of valuable graphite assets capable of supporting a significantly larger integrated graphite business.”
- Madagascar (Vatomina): The team are focusing on work to optimise and restart the Vatomina graphite project in Madagascar following an independent technical review.
- Work to be done includes: drilling, mine planning, infrastructure upgrades and final plant optimisation work, to improve operational performance.
- Graphite production is expected to restart >1,000t per month targeted from December 2026, subject to drilling progress.
- Mozambique: Management are advancing plans on plans for downstream processing in Mozambique.
- Management are looking to develop a DFS on a first-phase 50,000tpa plant.
- Cash: US$1.5m plus US$2.3m bank guarantee against the Mozambique mining projects.
Conclusion: Management have suspended graphite production at Vatomina pending work to better define the resource and optimise the process plant.
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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