SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Tuesday 21st July 2026

Copper premium hits $103/t in Yangshan, as storm hits Chile and on tax crackdown on scrap traders in China

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arkadian Strategic Metals (formerly Alba Mineral Resources) (AKN LN) – Field exploration plans for the Motzfeldt rare-earths project, Greenland

Hamak Strategy* (HAMA LN) – Threshold reached in 5:1 warrant / share exchange offer

Famien Resources (FMN AU) – Maiden Gogo drilling results from the Southern Target of the Bonougbara Trend, CDI

Leading Edge Materials (LEM CN) – Swedish funding backs processing work at Norra Kärr rare earth project

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Mushima North infill resource drilling

Copper ($13,751/t) – premium hits $103/t in Yangshan, as storm hits Chile and on tax crackdown on scrap traders in China

• China’s copper premium widened to $103/t, from a $20/t low in January (SMM, Reuters).
• A tax crackdown on scrap traders is pushing buying onto refined copper cathodes.
• LME stocks fell to their lowest since March falling a further -4,350t to 290,925t this morning, with metal moving into China.
• Satellite monitor Earth-i found one in seven Chinese smelters offline in 2Q, up from 5.5% in 1Q.
• Smelter margins are under pressure, with processing fees falling to negative levels and lower sulphuric acid sales from the ban of exports.
• Copper has risen around 9% this year on demand hopes and a possible US import tariff.

Chile declares state of emergency as storm kills five and curbs copper output across central mines

• A powerful winter storm has hit central Chile with heavy rain, snow and strong winds.
• Codelco suspended surface work at Andina and halted ore shipments from El Teniente.
• Lundin Mining shut Caserones on 18 July after snow cut power and access but is maintaining full-year guidance.
• Anglo American is watching Los Bronces, while Antofagasta cut non-essential work at Los Pelambres.
• The storm looks set to run until after the weekend with 100,000 people cut off by the extreme weather.

Sulphuric acid exports fall 99% in June after export halt

• Chinese customs data show sulphuric acid exports fell 99.2% in June to 980t, from 116,703t in May.
• Chile and Indonesia, its two biggest buyers, received no cargoes at all.
• Beijing halted exports from May to protect fertiliser supplies after the war cut sulphur shipments.
• The squeeze hits Chilean copper leaching and Indonesia’s HPAL nickel plants.

Indium – prices jump to $800-850/kg from $700-737/kg as LiDAR (Robotaxis) and AI optical systems drive demand for metal

• Indium prices have jumped higher as Chinese state export controls meet strong demand
• Datacentres, AI systems, Robotaxis and defense systems and lasers are driving demand.
• AI systems use also use semiconductors which rely on Indium Phosphate InP wafers which enable better electron mobility and form a better substrate for InGaAs and InAlAs ternary alloys.
• Robo-taxis used indium-rich sensors and LiDAR systems to generate images of their surroundings and are expected to see a surge in new demand
• Indium Phosphate is on China’s export control list due to rising domestic demand and its use in lasers and AI semiconductors.
• China produces >70% of global indium production (>760t) mainly as a byproduct of zinc smelting which also produces byproduct germanium, gallium, silver, copper and gold.
• China has a history of stockpiling indium based on its used in advanced consumer electronics and may be looking to build stock again to meet expected increasing demand.
• The Fanya Exchange which had raised funds on the accumulation of significant minor metals collapsed in 2015 leading  to the sale of 3,609t of indium.
• The indium was sold in a judicial auction to Kunming Rongke New Materials for approximately $416m, worth around $3bn at today’s price.
• The Fanya crisis led to the sale of 14 minor metals following the freezing of $6.4bn of customer accounts with the Chinese state taking control of the sale process.
• The Fanya collapse depressed minor metals for years as China auctioned metal into the market.

Gold ($4,076/oz) – Buyers step in to support gold at $4,000 as Middle East conflict continues

• Gold rose 1.8% to $4,078/oz following fresh buying near $4,000.
• Iranian mediators are proposing a 10-day pause in air strikes (Axios).

Nickel – Indonesia’s new export agency to soft launch system in September

• Indonesia’s new export agency DSI, will soft launch its revised export system in September.
• DSI head Luke Mahony said the rollout stays ‘phased and market-oriented’, with DSI as intermediary not trader.
• President Prabowo wants DSI running as a one-stop shop for resource exports by 1 September.
• The DSI will cover Indonesia’s nickel exports which represent around two thirds of global mine supply.

China shipped no gallium, dysprosium, terbium and yttrium to Japan in June, according the latest customs data.

• Shipments have nearly dried up completely since late last year following a diplomatic raft with Japanese PM Takaichi.
• No exports of dysprosium or terbium from November last year with only minimal shipments of yttrium since December.
• China publicly tightened controls on exports of dual use goods (REOs, permanent magnets, other critical minerals) to Japan in January, and then twice again the following month.
• PM Takaichi said that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could become an “existential threat” to Japan.

Currencies

US$1.1425/eur vs1.1448/eur previous.Yen 162.54/$ vs162.35/$. SAr 16.432/$ vs16.497/$. $1.345/gbp vs$1.348/gbp. 0.702/aud vs0.700/aud.

CNY 6.765/$ vs6.772/$. Dollar Index 100.90 vs100.73 previous.

Economics

US/Iran – Active military strikes continued for a tenth day after the ceasefire MOU fell through.

Iran – The US continue to target the IRGC and military sites across Iran, including the Electronic Industries Complex in Shiraz, a major drone-component manufacturing hub.

• Iranian media said initial reports indicated that a location inside the city was struck.
• US forces also struck Sirik to disrupt Iran’s intelligence in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Reports also indicate a number of other sites being struck with US airstrikes.
• The IRGC claimed it targeted US aircraft at Aqaba Airport in Jordan.
• The IRGC Navy additionally stated: “Attacked the drone maintenance and repair sheds of the American units stationed at Al-Sakhir Air Base in Bahrain, which resulted in their destruction.
• Attacked the TF59 vessel preparation sheds in Bahrain’s Salman Port, which resulted in its destruction and heavy damage to the vessels. Setting fire to the sheds where the naval special commando forces were stationed, supported, and equipped at the Arifjan base in Kuwait, and completely destroying them.”
• The IRGC claimed that two oil tankers attempting to use the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz exploded and stopped moving late last night following what it called US instigation.
• Fars News Agency published footage it said showed one or both vessels targeted while attempting to pass through the southern shipping lane.
• A fire broke out aboard a Greek cargo ship after it was struck by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters).
• The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a ship was struck by a projectile 17 nautical miles east of the UAE. No casualties were reported.
• Officials close to President Trump are reportedly pressuring him to accept Qatar’s proposal for a 10-day ceasefire.

Yemen – Houthis announce they will close the Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea in an immediate naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.

• The Houthis, cited the Saudi-led blockade of Yemen.
• Saudi Arabia has currently exporting ~75% of its oil exports via pipeline to the Red Sea to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

UK – Andy Burnham replaces Keir Starmer as new PM and announces a new set of ministers.

• John Healey who resigned as defence secretary last month has been named new chancellor.
• Yvette Cooper has been appointed health secretary while Shabana Mahmood keeps her job as home secretary.
• Ed Miliband has been named foreign secretary while Wes Streeting has been appointed defence secretary.

Budget deficit came in £2.7bn over OBR estimates from March despite improvements in June that took the deficit down £8bn to £16bn.

• The budget deficit came in at £57.6 billion ($77.5 billion) between April and June.
• Healey appointment fuelled speculation about a further boost for military spending and concerns over funding higher spend.
• Shorter term 2y yields are around 4.4%, not far off this year’s high of 4.6%.

Better than expected number released this morning with the economy adding 148k jobs in three months to May.

• Headline wages and ex bonus were up 4.3% and 3.4%.
• Employment Change (May / Apr / Est): 148k / 99k (revised from 100k) / 80k
• Av Weekly Earnings (%yoy, May / Apr / Est): 4.3 / 4.4 / 4.5
• Av Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (%yoy, May / Apr / Est): 3.4 / 3.4 / 3.4

Germany – Investor sentiment climbed to the highest level in five months on hopes Chancellor Merz’s economics reforms will kickstart growth.

• “It seems that the reforms are having an effect,” ZEW commented on data.
• “Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated with the developments in the Iran conflict and the oil price remain a crucial factor affecting the prospects for a recovery of the German economy.”
• ZEW Expectations (Jul / Jun / Est): 26.3 / 10.5 / 15.3
• ZEW Current Situation (Jul / Jun / Est): -77.6 / -81.0 / -77.7

Brazil – Chinese imports into Brazil hit record high following tax breaks and vehicle imports

• Chinese exports into Brazil rose 8% to $38.5bn (Brazil-China Business Council).
• Brazilian exports to China jumped 22% yoy in H1 to >$58.3bn
• The $19.8bn trade surplus  for Brazil made up 47% of its total $42.4bn surplus for the rest of the world
• China now accounts for 31.6% of total Brazilian exports in H1 with China accounting for 27% of Brazilian exports vs just 13.3% going into the US following Trump’s 25% tariff on Brazilian imports.
• But, Brazilian exports into China are quite different from its exports to the US indicating relatively little substitution with crude oil, aircraft, steel, coffee and wood pulp going to the US vs food stuffs, crude oil and iron ore going to China.
• New energy vehicles made up 15% of total imports into Brazil from China and 88% of total EV import with EVs and hybrids making up $5.35bn in H1 with EVs at $2bn vs hybrids at $2.79bn.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,076/oz vsUS$4,015/oz previous

Gold ETFs 96.2moz vs96.2moz previous

Platinum US$1,634/oz vsUS$1,604/oz previous

Palladium US$1,291/oz vsUS$1,267/oz previous

Silver US$58.8/oz vsUS$56.9/oz previous

Silver ETFs 787.1moz vs784.9moz previous

Rhodium US$8,200/oz vsUS$8,250/oz previos  

Base metals:

Copper US$13,751/t vsUS$13,578/t previous

Aluminium US$3,159/t vsUS$3,148/t previous

Nickel US$17,100/t vsUS$17,025/t previous

Zinc US$3,558/t vsUS$3,517/t previous

Lead US$1,885/t vsUS$1,875/t previous

Tin US$54,005/t vsUS$53,415/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$88.7/bbl vsUS$90.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices stabilised after Iran commented that it had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reinstating the ceasefire with the US and restoring marine vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has appointed Miatta Fahnbulleh as Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), taking over from Ed Miliband who is promoted to Foreign Secretary.

Natural Gas €59.1/MWh vs€59.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.6/lb vs$85.7/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$98.7/t vsUS$99.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.4/t vsUS$469.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$232.0/t vsUS$232.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$133.5/t vsUS$133.1/t      

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vsUS$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$113,230/t vsUS$113,146/t

Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$20,769/t vsUS$21,344/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,215/t vsUS$2,215/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vsUS$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,745/mtu vsUS$1,705/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vsUS$225/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vsUS$390/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vsUS$5.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vsUS$27.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$208/t vsUS$208/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,789/t vsUS$2,809/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,160/t vsUS$1,160/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vsUS$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vsUS$397.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,095.0/kg vsUS$4,095.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$430.0/kg vsUS$420.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$32.0/lb vsUS$32.0/lb

EV & Battery news:

China to end decade-long tax exemption on EV batteries

• China’s Ministry of Finance announced on Friday that it will levy a consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries and solar cells for the first time in over a decade, as Beijing steps up efforts to curb industry overcapacity and price wars.
• Lithium-ion batteries will be taxed at 2% from 1ˢᵗ September, rising to 4% a year later, while solar cells will be taxed at 2% from 1ˢᵗ April 2027, also rising to 4% after a year.
• China introduced a 4% consumption tax on batteries in 2015 but exempted lithium-ion batteries and solar cells to support the then-nascent industries.
• Analysts estimate the levy could add around 1,000 yuan ($147) to the cost of producing an EV once rates reach 4%, a modest per-car increase but a fresh squeeze on already thin manufacturer margins.
  • A typical Chinese EV carries a 50-100kWh battery pack, with cells currently priced around 0.35-0.40 yuan/Wh, a figure the initial levy would lift to roughly 0.36-0.41 yuan/Wh (China Passenger Car Association).
• Veteran auto analyst Jia Xinguang views the move as a sign of Beijing’s confidence that the EV and solar sectors have outgrown the need for preferential tax treatment.

Company news:

Arkadian Strategic Metals (formerly Alba Mineral Resources) (AKN LN) 0.01p, Mkt cap £3.5m – Field exploration plans for the Motzfeldt rare-earths project, Greenland

• Alba Mineral Resources has issued a report on progress at its Motzfeldt rare-earths project in southern Greenland where mobilisation of its field exploration team is underway and the “first field activities … [are] … planned for 29 July 2026”.
• The company confirms that “Relogging of historic Motzfeldt drill core … [is] … being advanced” and mineralogical and metallurgical tests including “Rougher and cleaner flotation tests … [which have been] … completed as part of the first-pass beneficiation programme”.
• Dr Curtis Rooks, Arkadian’s Principal Geologist, explained that the field team will also take “a new bulk sample from within the Aries JORC mineral resource area … [to] … support the next phase of more detailed processing test work”
• He said that the “work programme includes an environmental baseline study… [focussed] … on the most likely development sites at Motzfeldt which currently consists of the Aries deposit area as well as two alternative land transportation routes”.
• Dr. Rooks will also “meet representatives of the Municipality of Kujalleq in Qaqortoq on 27 July 2026 … to discuss the forthcoming Motzfeldt programme and Arkadian’s plans for ongoing engagement with local communities in respect of the future development of the project”.

Hamak Strategy* (HAMA LN) 0.65p, Mkt Cap £2.94m – Threshold reached in 5:1 warrant / share exchange offer

1. Hamak Strategy Limited report the acceptance threshold has been reached of >100,000,000 eligible warrants to go ahead with the warrant offer to simplify the company’s capital structure.
2. Eligible warrants validly surrendered under the Offer will be cancelled and corresponding new shares issued.
3. The offer is to exchange five warrants for one share in Hamak Strategy Limited to reduce the perceived overhang created by the 0.8p warrants.The warrants are due to expire on 3rd July 2027.
4. If all 452.1m eligible warrants are swapped, then Hamak should issue ~90.4m new shares representing ~80.0% reduction in potential dilution.
5. The 0.8p warrants were issued as part of a £2.5m funding announced in July last year.
6. Hamak have 452.14m shares outstanding and would suffer substantial dilution if all warrants are exercised, not accounting for the 5% Advisory and Consultants’ Board pool and the latest issue of 165,767,123 to Yorkville/YA exercisable at 1p/s which could bring in £1.66m.
7. Hamak Strategy is focussed on bitcoin treasury management with 26 Bitcoin held in treasury and on exploration of the Akoko gold project in Ghana

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in CAA Mining which may gain shares in Hamak Strategy if Hamak elects to acquire Akoko.

Famien Resources (FMN AU) A$0.18, Mkt Cap A$54m – Maiden Gogo drilling results from the Southern Target of the Bonougbara Trend, CDI

• The Company reports assays on the first five RC drill holes of the planed 3,500m programme at the Gogo Permit area in northeast Cote D’Ivoire.
• Selected intersections from the Southern Target of the Bonougbara Trend include:
  • GOERC0005: 6m at 2.68g/t Au from 33m
  • GOERC0002: 3m at 5.61g/t Au from 44m
  • GOERC0002: 5m at 1.44g/t Au from 73m
  • GOERC0003: 23m at 0.64g/t Au from 37m, incl. 2m at 2.34g/t Au
  • GOERC0001: 2m at 4.43g/t Au from 71m
• Drilling intersected broad zones of sheared sericite-quartz-pyrite alteration along an inferred NE structure, with higher grades tied to pyrite and quartz veining.
• The 5 holes reported tested less than 400m of strike within the 5km long Bonougbara Trend.
• The Southern Target was drilled first for access reasons when rig arrived.
• The Northern Target is the highest priority target with drilling nearing completion.
• Drilling expected to finish by end July with assays for the remaining 3,000m to follow shortly.
• The drill rig to move back to Tougbo Permit area after to test Kalama Bave target at depth.
• This will be followed by RC drilling at Koroba West (Aug–Sept), Tougbo East Permit, where recent dump sampling returned a peak 0.66g/t Au in altered granite.
• Regional BLEG stream-sediment results from the Toumodi and Dimbokro permits are due in the coming weeks.

Leading Edge Materials (LEM CN) C$0.26, Mkt Cap C$68m – Swedish funding backs processing work at Norra Kärr rare earth project

• Rare earth developer Leading Edge Materials updates on processing work at its Norra Kärr project in Sweden.
• Two research projects involving the company have gained funding from the Swedish innovation agency Vinnova.
• The SHLENK project studies how to stop silicates forming gel when leaching eudialyte, while NordAL covers Nordic alumina.
• The awards are part of a SEK70m (C$10m) national programme to secure Sweden’s critical minerals supply.
• The Company is sampling to make a concentrate of eudialyte, its rare earth mineral, for pilot tests.
• Norra Kärr gained a 25-year mining lease in June, on track to be the EU’s first heavy rare earth mine.
• The deposit is rich in dysprosium and terbium, key inputs for magnets in EVs and defence.
• CEO Kurt Budge called the funding ‘a strong validation of the strategic role Norra Kärr can play’.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.07p, Mkt Cap £4.5m – Mushima North infill resource drilling

• Tertiary Minerals reports the completion of 22 holes (2,175m) of its planned 4,000m drilling reverse-circulation (RC) campaign at its Mushima North silver/copper target in Zambia.
• The drilling is testing an “Exploration Target of 15-30 million tonnes at 40-60 g/t silver equivalent”.
• Managing Director, Richard Belcher, described the progress so far as “a very exciting start to this drill programme … [and said that it is] … currently infill drilling to support the delineation of a JORC Mineral Resource Estimate”.
• At this stage, laboratory assays are not yet available, but the company says that “preliminary results from the Company’s internal analysis using a pXRF analyser supports the current extent of the oxide mineralisation … as well as intersecting higher-grade copper and possible silver mineralisation within the north of the Exploration Target”.
• The drilling consists of a pattern of holes “collared approximately 50m apart along the east-west lines and drilled to vertical depth of up to approximately 125m”.
• Today’s announcement explains that results so far on the A1 silver oxide target show “a near surface, tabular body located within the oxide zone … [which] … is some 500m long, 300m wide and up to 75m thick … [and which] … remains open to the northwest, southwest and at depth”.

Conclusion: The latest RC drilling results from the infill drilling at the Mushima North project in Zambia progress the delivery of a maiden MRE for Target A1. Assay results are awaited but pXRF data shows an extensive, near surface, zone of oxide mineralisation which remains open laterally and at depth.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

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Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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