Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Amaroq, Gately, Guardian Metal, IG Design, Likewise, MedPal, Manolete, Public Policy, Potentially AI, Priority , Skinbio, Tern, Thor Explorations.
The charts are starting to show a few more signs of life. There are still key resistance levels to clear, and plenty of markets remain dependent on wider geopolitical headlines, but the technical picture is improving in several places.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
The common theme is straightforward: rising or reclaimed 50-day moving averages, RSI rebounds around the neutral 50 level, and breaks through nearby resistance. Those are the ingredients to look for if the recovery is going to develop into something more substantial.
Major indices: FTSE 100 steady, DAX constructive, Dow needs to recover
FTSE 100: holding above the rising 50-day line
The FTSE 100 has continued to bounce above its rising 50-day moving average. The RSI has also found support around neutral 50, or just above it, which keeps the technical bias positive.
The immediate upside trigger is a decisive break through 10,620. If that arrives, 10,750 is the near-term objective, potentially by the end of next month. A more convincing breakout could open the way towards the channel top at 11,000, although that probably requires geopolitical concerns to ease significantly.
On the downside, the March channel floor sits near 10,420. That is the key support area and, for now, looks like the likely limit of any pullback.
DAX: gap-fill potential remains intact
The DAX has bounced from the floor of its rising channel, around 24,700, even though that floor has needed a small adjustment lower. The preferred scenario remains a push up to fill the gap around 25,400 over the next week or two.
A break below 24,700 would expose the 200-day moving average at 24,300. Those taking a more cautious approach may prefer to see a clean move back above the 50-day line and the RSI reclaim neutral 50. The RSI was still around 48, so confirmation is not quite there yet.
Dow: 52,000 is the level to reclaim
The Dow has slipped out of the smaller channel that had contained price action since early last month. To get the upside case back on track, it needs to reclaim 52,000.
Failure to do that leaves the April uptrend line, the floor of the wider channel and a neckline-type area near the 50-day average at 51,200 as the more obvious risk zone. The RSI has broken its own uptrend around 55, which was an early warning sign.
Above 52,000, the August objective would be the monthly resistance at 53,300.
Crypto: Bitcoin leads the improvement, Ethereum is building a recovery
Bitcoin: a break above 65,000 changes the tone
Bitcoin had been remarkably lifeless, but the chart is looking better. The break through recent 65,000 resistance, combined with an RSI rebound above 50 and an uptrend line in the RSI window, creates a more constructive setup.
The minimum upside target is 67,000, with the 200-day moving average near 73,000 the more ambitious objective. That could be in play by the end of next month, or possibly sooner.
One particularly encouraging feature is that Bitcoin is making higher lows above a falling 50-day average. Once that average starts to flatten or turn higher, the chance of a proper upside move increases.
- Near-term support: 63,000 at the 50-day moving average.
- Worst-case support: 61,000, which has been July support.
- Upside levels: 67,000 initially, then 73,000 around the 200-day average.
Ethereum: an inverted head-and-shoulders style recovery
Ethereum is not outperforming Bitcoin yet, but it is showing similar signs of recovery. It is trying once more to break through 1,945 resistance after pushing above a falling 50-day moving average.
As long as Ethereum remains above the 50-day line at 1,730, the minimum upside target is the 200-day average around 2,172. Several RSI rebounds from 50 or higher during the month strengthen the recovery case.
The setup resembles an inverted head-and-shoulders formation. The longer Ethereum can hold above 1,900, the better the chart looks.
Gold and crude oil: breakout attempt versus a key moving average
Gold: finally through early-month resistance
Gold has been a serial disappointment recently, but it has managed to break the resistance line that had been in place since the start of the month. That level was near 4,030.
Above it, the next resistance line is around 4,230, followed by the recent July highs. It is an interesting move given the usual relationship between gold and peace or ceasefire expectations. In recent months gold has tended to rise when such prospects rise, so the current strength is slightly counterintuitive but technically encouraging.
WTI crude oil: close above 83.36 needed for 87
Crude oil has peaked near its 50-day moving average at $83.36. An end-of-day close through that level would point towards $87.
If it cannot break through, the market may need to test support around $78, a recent base that had previously acted as resistance. The RSI near 61 is still in a healthy position for more gains, and the rising 200-day line is supportive despite the sharp retreat from the $120 area in March and April.
The worst case would be another test of the 200-day moving average near $75.
What matters most from here
The better charts share a familiar technical pattern: price holding above, or breaking back through, the 50-day moving average; RSI support around neutral 50; and resistance levels turning into support.
That does not remove risk. Several of the targets depend on decisive breakouts, while geopolitical developments remain capable of moving major markets quickly. Still, the balance of evidence is more constructive than it has been recently, particularly in Bitcoin, Ethereum, several UK small caps, and selected commodities.
Key levels remain the guide: 10,620 on the FTSE 100, 52,000 on the Dow, 65,000 on Bitcoin, 1,945 on Ethereum, $83.36 on WTI crude, and the relevant 50-day moving averages across the individual shares.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
