Copper prices recover as outflow of metal accelerates on SHFE
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Canyon Resources (CAY AU) – Locomotives arrive in Cameroon as first shipments targeted for 4Q26, $160m of additional financing sought
Solstice Minerals (SLS AU) – Deep diamond drilling extends copper-gold mineralisation at Nanadie
Gold ($4,031/oz) rebounds as dollar rally fades and US Treasury yields slide
- The gold price has rebounded back over $4,000/oz, having touched ytd lows of $3,973/oz.
- The metal is down 11% over the past month, and 3% over the past week.
- The gold price exuberance from the recent progress in peace talks between the US and Iran was countered by a more-than-expected hawkish Fed Chair Warsh.
- The market priced in additional rate hikes following the Fed meeting which emphasised the importance of controlling inflation.
- However, US Treasury yields have been sliding, suggesting reduced expectations for a more longer-term hiking cycle.
- The 10 Year Treasury is back below 4.4%, reducing the dollar’s upward momentum.
- The dollar index has fallen 23bp this morning to 101.5, ending several days of consecutive gains.
Copper (US$13,160/t) – prices recover as outflow of metal accelerates on SHFE
- Copper inventories fell -8,143 tons (-5.7%) to 135,732t on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week.
- But given, China’s 15mtpa consumption these sorts of stock withdrawals may become more common.
- The LME also saw a further -2,625t withdrawn reducing stocks to 336,475t today.
- Copper smelters in China are now processing copper for free while living off the benefits of gold, silver and sulphur contained in the concentrates.
- Overbuilding of copper smelting capacity has squeezed margins down to near-uneconomic levels with high sulphuric acid prices helping alongside cheeky discounts for copper metal offered at the smelter exit gate.
- China raised refined copper output by 8% yoy to 14.7mt last year with the CSPT, a group of larger smelters, agreeing to cut output by 10% following the collapse in Tc/Rcs ‘Treatment and Refining’ charges.
- The NBS reports production rose another 7.4% yoy from January-April further undermining Tc/Rc rates.
- China has >52% of global copper smelting capacity and rising from around 65 smelters but only ~10% of global mine production.
Anglo and Codelco to add 120,000tpa of copper in cooperative agreement
- A new mine plan to combine future development at Andina and Los Bronces mines in Chile will enable an additional 120,000tpa of new copper output.
- The plan should produce 2.7mt of copper over 21 years worth .
Tin – Seligdar, Russia plans new supply from 2028
- Seligdar, reports it will start producing tin from a new plant in late 2028.
- The company produced 3,500t of tin in concentrate last year.
Spain’s Oropesa project clears a permit hurdle
- Australia’s Elementos (ASX: ELT) won a special “public interest” status for its Oropesa tin project in Spain.
- This EU status recognises the project’s wider benefits, and here it helps it get water permits with full approvals expected by late 2026 or early 2027.
- Europe imported ~66% of its refined tin in 2025.
Lithium – producers bet on BESS storage as EV demand cools
- Fastmarkets, reports lithium demand for Battery Energy Storage Systems is growing at ~40% a year.
- Growth is now being led by AI’s power use and the push to strengthen grids.
The US Army announced deals with a number of companies to build critical minerals processing plants on military bases around the country.
- Pentagon signed deals with REalloys, Titan Mining, ioneer and EnergyX for processing of REE, graphite, boron and lithium.
- REalloys (ALOY US, Mkt Cap US$870m) will build a REE separation facility at the Tooele Army Depot, Utah.
- Titan Mining (TII US, Mkt Cap US$219m) will build and operate a graphite purification facility at either Pine Bluff Arsenal, Arkansas, or Anniston Army Depot, Alabama.
- EnergyX (Private) and ioneer (INR AU, Mkt Cap A$460m) will develop a lithium facility and a boron plant, respectively.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.14% | at | 51,921 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -4.15% | at | 69,361 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -1.70% | at | 22,685 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -2.23% | at | 4,028 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -1.4 | at | 4.38 |
Currencies
US$1.1376/eur vs 1.1353/eur previous. Yen 161.68/$ vs 161.83/$. SAr 16.501/$ vs 16.581/$. $1.320/gbp vs $1.318/gbp. 0.689/aud vs 0.690/aud. CNY 6.804/$ vs 6.804/$.
Dollar Index 101.39 vs 101.62 previous.
Economics
Reverse of carry trade could squeeze global liquidity as Japan starts to normalise interest rates to offset new inflation
- It all really started in China, Japan’s great nemesis.
- China has inflated its economy with low-costs subsidised finance and an enormous pool of educated, hardworking and low-cost labour enabling it to lower manufacturing costs and undercut Japan.
- Japan competed with China with negative interest rates and low-cost nuclear power though labour costs remain high.
- But, China is now allowing unit prices in its ‘Anti-Involution’ policy causing inflation in goods and components used in Japanese factories.
- Japan now plans to raise interest rates to steady inflation, though we see this as tough to control given that a large part of the cause is 2,100km away.
- Unfortunately, the end of ultra-low interest rates in Japan means the end of cheap money for hedge funds and liquidity squeeze on the activities of those funds.
- The funds will need to find other sources of low-cost finance or will need to cash in their positions.
- It is difficult to know how this will play out but we suspect some hedge funds will continue to run the Japan carry trade for as long as they possibly can before being forced to dump their favoured positions.
- Some of this low-cost money is lent to businesses causing credit lines to evaporate. Other funds are used in bond arbitrage, trade finance and a range of other investment ideas.
- The question is, what can take over to replace the low-cost funding from the world’s third-largest creditor and forth largest economy?
Technology stocks pull back on the news OpenAI may delay its IPO.
- New York Times reported that the Company was advised that recent volatility in tech stocks and in SpaceX shares might reduce retail investors’ appetite.
- Softbank who invested more than $30bn into the Company and committed more than $60bn in total that would give it ~13% stake in the business dropped >12% in Tokyo on Friday.
- Nikkei and Kospi closed 4% and 6% lower today.
- Nasdaq futures are 0.5% down.
🇺🇸 – Senate blocks efforts to restrain Trump over Iran by 50-47
- The vote hands Trump a significant victory.
- Trump thanked senators who changed their votes, saying the result ‘puts Iran on notice.’
- The vote preserves the current legal framework which allows Trump to continue military operations under its existing interpretation of executive war powers.
- The move also highlights the constitutional debate over the balance of authority between Congress and the president over the use of military force.
US – May PCE came in line with forecasts confirming a pickup in inflationary pressures.
- Expectations are for energy related inflation to slowdown with falling crude prices while monetary authorities to closely follow core measure.
- Core PCE is currently the highest its been since late 2023.
- Market currently estimates a ~75% chance of a hike in September.
- PCE (%yoy, May / Apr / Est): 4.1 / 3.8 / 4.1
- Core PCE (%yoy, May / Apr / Est): 3.4 / 3.3 / 3.4
Japan – Tokyo inflation data for June showed a faster than expected increase in CPIs.
- Both headline as well as core measures came ahead of estimates.
- CPI (%yoy, Jun / May / Est): 1.7 / 1.4 / 1.6
- CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy (%yoy, Jun / May / Est): 1.9 / 1.6 / 1.8
Namibia – A N$2.1bn ($127m) desalination project is planned to provide water for the mining industry.
- The Erongo SUNAM Desaliantion project is expected to be completed by June 2028.
- The facility will be developed by NamWater, a state owned utility, and uranium producer Swakop Uranium.
- The government will contribute N$200m in equity with the rest to be covered by private sector and development funding.
UK – Andy Burnam to move parts of No 10 to Manchester
- Labour MPs should be careful of what they wish for.
- For years MPs have voted against moving out of the Palace of Westminster which needs major refurbishment for power, plumbing and structural repairs.
- Almost every MP wants to enjoy the history and prestige of their time in the Palace but the building badly needs a refurb.
- This is an opportunity for Burnam, former mayor of Manchester, to move MPs out to Manchester while the work gets underway.
- They would inevitably be followed by their assistants, lobbyist and other flunkies who will be calling for accelerated construction of HS2 when they find out how few spare seats there are on the trains up-north.
- There is an old Victorian fish market in the Northern Quarter of Manchester which sounds entirely appropriate.
Iran – Strait will “never return to pre-war conditions.” According to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf
- Iran and Oman formed a joint committee to manage it, and the Persian Gulf Strait Authority is already collecting according to a report.
- Gulf states remain sceptical regarding Iran’s potential military rebuilding and unaddressed ballistic missile
Lebanon – US official reports Israel had taken a concrete step by pulling back from part of its buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
- Lebanese security sources say they had no knowledge of any pullback. Israeli officials rejected the report.
- “for the first time in 30 years, the sovereign government of Lebanon is speaking to the government of Israel directly,”
- “That’s who we’re going to be negotiating with. Not Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not the government.” according to Marco Rubio.
- IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani warned, “If the Zionist entity does not withdraw from Lebanon of its own accord, it will be forced to flee in defeat.” Qaani said, “You must leave all of Lebanon; because this land is a field of steadfastness and resistance, not a playground for occupiers. If you do not retreat voluntarily today, tomorrow you will inevitably be forced to flee in humiliation and defeat.”
- Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reached a principal agreement on military “pilot areas” in southern Lebanon, with technical details expected to be finalized today in Washington. (Al-Hadath)
- “We will help the Lebanese government extend its control over all its territories without any external interference.” Marco Rubio
- Israel and Lebanon are discussing a US-backed proposal under which Israeli forces would hand over parts of southern Lebanese territory captured during the war to the Lebanese Army.
- Under the proposal, Lebanese troops would be trained and vetted by the U.S. to ensure they have no ties to Hezbollah, while Israel would retain forces in a border buffer zone. (Reuters)
- “If the Zionist entity does not withdraw from Lebanon of its own accord, it will be forced to flee in defeat.” IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani
Yemen – “We eliminated the entire Houthi leadership, except for Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, who is hiding in the tunnels. If he is in the crosshairs, he will die.” Katz
Syria – CENTCOM killed a senior ISIS leader in north-west Syria in a precision strike.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,029/oz vs US$3,983/oz previous
Gold ETFs 97.1moz vs 97.3moz previous
Platinum US$1,610/oz vs US$1,561/oz previous
Palladium US$1,204/oz vs US$1,175/oz previous
Silver US$58.0/oz vs US$56.9/oz previous
Silver ETFs 782.7moz vs 783.4moz previous
Rhodium US$7,750/oz vs US$7,850/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,160/t vs US$13,144/t previous
Aluminium US$3,155/t vs US$3,135/t previous
Nickel US$16,735/t vs US$16,925/t previous
Zinc US$3,415/t vs US$3,428/t previous
Lead US$1,910/t vs US$1,912/t previous
Tin US$50,355/t vs US$50,075/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$73.7/bbl vs US$72.8/bbl previous
Natural Gas €40.5/MWh vs €40.9/MWh previous
- Henry Hub natural gas prices edged higher after the EIA reported a 76bcf w/w storage build to 2,835bcf, with US inventories are 2% below last year’s level and 6% above the five-year average, as LNG export capacity rose 2bcf w/w to 135bcf on 35 LNG departures (-1 w/w).
Uranium Futures $85.6/lb vs $85.7/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.1/t vs US$97.6/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$478.1/t vs US$478.8/t
HCC FOB Australia US$243.3/t vs US$243.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$128.5/t vs US$129.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$109,501/t vs US$110,229/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,386/t vs US$21,972/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,325/t vs US$2,350/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vs US$1,705/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$228/lb vs US$228/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vs US$5.8/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vs US$27.2/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$224/t vs US$224/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,154/t vs US$1,154/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$402.5/t vs US$402.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vs US$4,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.0/lb vs US$31.0/lb
EV & Battery news:
UK EV sales beat petrol cars for the first time over a full year
- In the 12 months to May 2026, UK buyers bought 516,490 new pure electric cars (BEVs) just ahead of 504,010 new petrol cars (ACEA)
- EV sales rose 34% yoy in May as sales of petrol vehicles fell 14%
- Hybrids remain the most popular type of vehicle but are likely to suffer more mechanical issues due to the doubling up of components.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -1.6% | -10.0% | Freeport-McMoRan | -4.0% | -11.8% |
| Rio Tinto | -2.3% | -7.2% | Vale | -3.1% | -7.1% |
| Glencore | -0.7% | -8.4% | Newmont Mining | -3.9% | -13.3% |
| Anglo American | 0.3% | -9.3% | Fortescue | -1.6% | -5.2% |
| Antofagasta | 0.7% | -11.9% | Teck Resources | -3.1% | -11.5% |
Canyon Resources (CAY AU) A$0.1, Mkt Cap A$188m – Locomotives arrive in Cameroon as first shipments targeted for 4Q26, $160m of additional financing sought
- Cameroonian bauxite developer Canyon provides an update on its Minim Martap project.
- The Company announces that locomotives have been delivered to Cameroon, with first rail wagons due to arrive in mid-August 2026.
- Mining is due to begin in 3Q26, with first bauxite shipments on schedule for 4Q26.
- The Company is working on securing an additional $160m of financing to boost rail transport capacity to 105wMt per month by 3Q27.
- Without the additional funding, production will remain at 35kwMt per month.
- Major construction works including ore haulage road, IRF and dredging of the port are due to be completed in late 3Q26.
Solstice Minerals (SLS AU) A$2, Mkt Cap A$348m – Deep diamond drilling extends copper-gold mineralisation at Nanadie
- Solstice Minerals, Australian copper explorer, reports diamond drilling results from its Nanadie Copper-Gold project.
- Hole NANRCD004 was drilled to extend the RC hole NANRC004 which intersected 62m at 1.55% Cu and 0.66g/t Au to 318m.
- Highlights from the diamond hole combined with the original RC hole returned 629m at 0.5% Cu and 0.17g/t Au from surface, with the hole ending in mineralisation.
- Highlights include:
- 31m at 1.41% Cu and 0.34g/t Au from 462m
- 38m at 0.87% Cu and 0.22g/t Au from 547m
- The copper-gold assays were analogous o previously reported zones of chalcopyrite mineralisation.
- Phase 2 drilling continues over the 1.2km of strike length, which reportedly remains open to the north and south and at depth.
- The Company believes it is gaining increasing confidence to increase the 40mt MRE at Nanadie.
- Assays from 12 diamond holes are pending.
- Shares up 30% this morning.
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
No.1 for Precious Metals: Q1 2026
No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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