Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, African Pioneer, Beximco, Bellway, Chesterfield, Delta Gold, EasyJet, Hercules, Ondo, Pulsar, Severfield, SkinBio.
The market feels split at the moment. Some major indices are pressing against resistance and look set to break higher, while crypto remains fragile, commodities are mixed to weak, and small caps are throwing up a handful of selective technical setups rather than broad strength.
That means this is very much a chart-by-chart market. There are places where a decent breakout could develop quickly, and there are others where the risk of another leg down is still very real.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100 still trapped, but leaning towards a breakout
The FTSE 100 is still boxed into a relatively tight range. On the downside, the 50 day moving average near 10,392 has been acting as support. On the upside, resistance from early March comes in around 10,520.
The key point here is simple. A daily close above 10,520 would improve the picture and open the way towards the April resistance area near 10,700.
For now, the market is still ranging, but the balance of probability is tilting slightly to the upside. The RSI is above the neutral 50 mark at around 53, which suggests positive momentum is trying to build.
The preferred scenario is that this week’s dip into the 10,350 zone turns out to be the low. That said, it is still worth respecting the possibility of a deeper shakeout towards 10,100 if sentiment suddenly sours.
DAX battling 25,000 resistance
The DAX has been all about the 25,000 area. That resistance zone has been tested around 25,070, and it remains the big ceiling for now.
Support is sitting near the floor of the current channel and the 50 day moving average around 24,600. Bulls will want to see the index hold above that level on a closing basis.
One encouraging feature is the 200 day moving average, which is now rising with more conviction. That usually helps the broader trend, even if short term momentum has softened a bit with the RSI slipping below 50.
So while the DAX has lost a touch of momentum, the medium term structure is not broken. Holding 24,600 keeps the chart constructive.
Dow pushing at the top of its rising channel
The Dow has been trying to force its way out of the rising trend channel that has been in place since April. There was a brief move through the upper boundary, but it did not yet stick.
The top of that channel sits around 52,500. A close above that would strengthen the breakout case and keep alive the target near 54,000, which lines up with a resistance line from November and remains a reasonable objective into the end of next month.
Near term support and resistance have both been clustering around 51,300. Ideally that holds, because if it does not, there is room for a drop towards the lower end of the channel and the 50,200 area.
The RSI around 60 is still supportive of further gains, and the repeated support points above a rising 50 day line since April remain one of the more bullish features on the chart.
Bitcoin and Ethereum still look unwell
Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to look heavy. It has been hovering around the 60,000 area without much conviction, and although there has been a modest bounce from 58,000, the overall picture still looks vulnerable.
The lower boundary of the current channel points towards 54,000, which remains the main downside risk for now.
To improve matters, Bitcoin really needs to reclaim the 62,000 area, which had previously been support. A move back above that level could trigger a rally towards the 50 day moving average, but there is a problem here: recent attempts to recover that average have failed twice.
The RSI is close to oversold, though not decisively through that threshold. That helps explain the small positive reaction, but it does not yet signal a durable turnaround.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is still struggling, and the chart continues to carry downside risk.
Ethereum
Ethereum is in a similar position. Price action has been close to recent support around 1,560, but that level is looking increasingly shaky.
While Ethereum remains below broken support near 1,650, the chart leaves open the possibility of a slide towards the lower boundary of the near term channel around 1,319.
The RSI is oversold, but not in an extreme washout way. That means the market is weak enough to be under pressure, yet not stretched enough to rule out more downside.
Gold struggling below former support
Gold has found some temporary companionship with a support projection from February, which now points towards roughly 3,920. The trouble is that the bounce has been weak.
The rebound appears to have been driven mainly by the RSI brushing the oversold 30 area rather than by a meaningful shift in trend. With price still below 4,120, which had been temporary support, the near term bias remains lower.
There is even a risk that the decline pushes beyond the old October and November support zone around 3,920. In other words, support has appeared, but conviction has not.
WTI crude oil hit by Middle East de-escalation
Crude oil has been undermined by the easing of tensions in the Middle East, and technically the chart has turned weaker.
WTI is now struggling below the 200 day moving average at $74. As long as it stays under that level, there is scope for a move down towards the base of the February gap near $68.20.
That lower area could become a technical buy zone for a rebound back towards the 200 day line. But for now, the momentum signal is not great. The RSI has failed around the oversold 30 area, which can sometimes mark the start of another downward leg rather than the end of one.
Stock charts worth watching
African Pioneer: African Pioneer is nudging the top of a rising trend channel, with major resistance around 1.6p. A daily close through that level would signal a fresh leg higher, with potential towards 2.4p by the end of next month. The setup remains valid while the shares hold above recent support around 1.4p. Ideally, the breakout happens soon rather than dragging on.
Beximco: Beximco has shown some strange price action, which is not unusual in a less liquid name. The broader structure is still a rising trend channel that has been in place since July. There has been a sharp dip, possibly a shakeout, towards 35p. The key now is whether the shares can close back inside the channel, or at the very least recover above 42p and stay there for a few sessions. If that happens, the chart points towards 57p by the end of next month. The extended period with RSI above 50 is one of the more supportive signs here.
Bellway: Bellway has the look of a possible broadening triangle base. It has also delivered a couple of rebounds from the RSI 50 area, which often reflects underlying support in the trend. Above resistance at £19.60, the shares could head towards the top of the triangle at £22.30 by the end of next month. That is an ambitious call, but the setup is helped by a rising 50 day moving average.
Chesterfield: Chesterfield has been one of the day’s stronger names. The stock sits in a long term rising trend channel, and the key level to break is recent resistance around 1.2p. If that level gives way on a weekly closing basis, the shares could push above 2p by the end of the summer. Both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages are rising, which adds to the constructive backdrop. Support to watch is around 0.9p.
Delta Gold: Delta Gold has produced a decent intraday recovery after opening at the low and moving higher. The missing ingredient is stronger momentum. What would improve the setup is a move in the RSI back above 50, combined with a daily close above the 50 day moving average near 141p. That combination could set up a rebound into the 160p to 170p area by the end of next month, even if the stock later fades again. There is still some risk of a move down towards the £1 area, but the latest price action has at least eased immediate concern. Near term support is around 120p.
EasyJet: EasyJet has pushed through resistance with a gap higher and has already cleared an initial target around £5.50. Above that, the next technical objective is a resistance line stretching back into 2024, which points towards roughly £6.25. This is one of those names where fundamentals and corporate speculation can matter more than pure charting, but the technical road map is there: First key breakout zone: £5.50, Next upside target: £6.25
Hercules: Hercules has had decent updates this week, and one technical feature stands out. Even though the price has dropped to fresh near term lows, the RSI has held a bit firmer on this latest dip. That kind of divergence can sometimes hint that selling pressure is beginning to lose intensity. The RSI is also heavily oversold. If the shares can stabilise, a recovery above 29p could open the way towards 38p by the end of August. What definitely needs to be avoided is another low below 21p.
Ondo: Ondo surprised on the downside earlier, and now it may be catching some people out on the upside. The shares moved quickly to a red resistance line target around 5.75p. If that level is exceeded, the next target is around 10p by the end of next month, representing roughly the midpoint retracement of the sharp April decline. The bullish case remains alive while the price stays above the 5.75p to 6p zone.
Pulsar: Pulsar has started to bounce from the lower area of its channel, which stretches back to January and comes in around 69p. A recent rebound above the 200 day moving average near 66p is particularly interesting. When a stock is strong enough to turn higher before even touching a major long term average, that can be a sign of underlying strength. The initial target is 85p, with 95p possible by the end of next month as long as the shares remain above recent support around 75p.
Severfield: Severfield is not a chart that usually gets much attention, but the current setup is neat enough to note. The shares are sitting near the base of a rising trend channel. While price stays above broken resistance around 29p, the top of the channel near 36p remains the target. That could be reached in the first half of July if momentum improves quickly.
SkinBioTherapeutics: SkinBioTherapeutics is shaping up with what looks like either a bull flag or at the very least a mid move consolidation above a rising 50 day moving average. That is usually a constructive pattern. The initial target is around 14.5p, but the more ambitious objective is a gap fill towards 19p by the end of next month. To keep the setup healthy, the shares ideally need to remain above the 50 day line, which sits just below 10p.
What matters most right now
There are a few themes running through these charts:
- Major indices are close to important breakout points, especially the FTSE 100, DAX, and Dow.
- Crypto still looks weak and has not done enough to suggest a lasting recovery.
- Gold and oil both remain under pressure unless key levels are reclaimed.
- Small caps are offering selective opportunities, but many need confirmation through daily or weekly closes above resistance.
The biggest takeaway is that this is not a market where everything is moving together. Strength has to be earned chart by chart. Where breakouts come, they could offer decent upside. Where support fails, the downside can still accelerate quickly.
That is why closing levels matter so much here. Plenty of these charts are sitting right on the edge between consolidation and confirmation.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
