Gold breaks through record highs, on track for best quarter since 1986
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) – FY24 results and MRE upgrade delivering 51% growth in ounces
Allied Gold (AAUC CN) – Full year results show accelerating growth programme in Ethiopia and Mali
Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – BKM optimised feasibility study nears completion
B2Gold (BTO CN) – Goose Project update, as company firm CAPEX estimate
Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) – £3.2m equity raise
Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Gold loan interest conversion
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Closing of upsized C$6m placing to fund gold exploration in Colombia
Gold ($3,072/oz) breaks through record highs, on track for best quarter since 1986
- Gold continues to rally, breaking through its previous record highs and touching $3,086/oz overnight.
- ETF holdings have increased to 87.8moz, up from 81moz mid-2024 but well below 113moz hit in 2020 and 107moz hit in 2022.
- This shows rising investor participation in the current bull market, which has been fuelled by major central bank buying from China among others.
- Increasing retail appetite for gold is supporting the metal, alongside accelerating bullish positioning from funds.
- The metal may be rallying on increasing haven appetite amid the ongoing trade war between Trump’s administration and various counterparties, notably China.
- However, US Treasuries remain weak, suggesting haven asset allocating is yet to get underway.
- The rally likely reflects a continued shift in the global monetary order, with the East securing gold as it looks to diversify away from dollar reserves.
- Trump’s major rollout of reciprocal tariffs is due on April 2nd, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a sustained rally into that.
- We saw a previous major rally into the BRICs summit last October, which was fuelled by talk of de-dollarisation and a gold-backed BRICS currency.
- This failed to materialise, triggering a sell-off, which then reversed following reports of China central bank buying restarting in November.
Copper ($9,755/t) prices pull back as anecdotal reports suggest consumers are not buying much physical copper at current prices in the US
- A quick and simple question to a US trading company suggests there is not much volume in the physical copper trade in the US
- Consumers and investors appear to be focusing on the medium to longer-term view of a slowdown caused by disruption from new US tariffs.
- Copper equities may also be ignoring high physical premiums with Antofagasta falling 1% overnight 6% this week and Freeport-McMoRan falling 3.6% overnight.
ii / interactive investor – video interviews:
- Is China losing its grip on African mining, inc. Sovereign Metals*, Kefi*, Atlantic Lithium*, Goldstone*, Kodal*, Yellow Cake, Kazera Global, Aterian*:
- Gold, inc. Goldstone*, Kefi,
- Trump tariffs, China and critical metals, inc. Aterian*, Atlantic Lithium*, Sovereign Metals*, Yellow Cake, Kazera Global
- Five mining stocks to watch: , inc. Sovereign Metals*, Kazera Global, Yellow Cake, Thor Explorations, Kodal Minerals*
*SP Angel acts for Sovereign Metals and Kodal Minerals
Sharepickers: Gold & Copper Small Caps: https://audioboom.com/posts/8693044-john-meyer-here-s-some-gold-copper-small-caps
- Gold, copper, 13:05 Orosur*, 13:38 Oriole*, 15:25 Resolute, 16:44 Goldstone*, 17:46 Antofagasta, 18:23 Central Asia Metals, 19:56 Kavango, 20:52 Power Metal Resources, 24:25 Kefi*, 25:18 Tertiary Minerals*
- Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG6furFO3n4X
* SP Angel act as nomad and or broker
FCA To Encourage Retail Investors To Increase Their Risk Levels: https://audioboom.com/posts/8693692-fca-to-encourage-retail-investors-to-increase-their-risk-levels
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.37% | at | 42,300 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.80% | at | 37,120 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.65% | at | 23,427 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.67% | at | 3,351 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -3.7 | at | 4.32 |
Economics
US – Fortress America – Trump tariffs cause consternation across nations with substantial exports into the US
- The EU first developed Fortress Europe to protect Europe from damage caused by low-cost imports.
- Now America is doing the same so EU politicians might complain but its really a case of ‘pot calling kettle black’.
- S&P Case Schiller home prices 4.7% yoy in January vs 4.5% yoy in December.
- New home sales rose 1.8% in February to 0.676m units vs a fall of -6.9% in January to 0.664mill units.
- Durable goods orders 0.9% in February vs 3.3% in January
- Durable goods orders ex transport rose 0.7% in February vs 0.1% in January
- Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 92.9 in March vs 100.1 in February
- Richmond Fed manufacturing index also fell -4 (6),
- Kansas City manufacturing index rose to 1 vs -13
- GDP revised to 2.4% in Q4 vs 3.1% in Q3
- Core PCE prices rose 2.6% qoq in Q4 vs 2.2%
- Real consumer spending rose to 4% in Q4 vs 3.7% in Q3
Japan – Tokyo core CPI climbs to 2.4% in March vs 2.2% in February as food and rent prices rise
- Food prices jumped 5.6% yoy in March vs driven by a whopping 92.4% yoy rise in rice due to a poor rice harvest.
- Services prices also rose 0.8% yoy in March from 0.6% yoy in February.
- Rents also rose 1.1% yoy.
EU – New car registrations fell -3.4% in February vs -26% in January
Germany – Gfk consumer sentiment improves but remains at a woeful -24.5 from -24.6 reflecting a slightly less worse outlook
- Whatever consumers thought, Trump has probably just made it all feel much worse.
- Ifo business climate rose to 86.7 in March vs 85.3 in February
- The figures are still very poor and indicate Germany has a long way to go to restore business confidence
UK – Retail sales rise 1% mom in February vs expectations for a -0.3% fall
- The figures highlight the sticky nature of inflation giving the BoE yet more reason to hold interest rates.
- UK CPI rose to 0.4% mom in February vs -0.1% mom in January.
- UK CPI also rose 2.8% yoy in February vs 3% yoy in January.
Ukraine – Putin will die soon and Ukraine war will end, says Zelensky
- Zelenski comments that Putin is near death and fears losing his grip on his people.
- Press reports suggest Putin is suffering from a potential range of diseases from Parkinson’s to thyroid cancer.
- Reports also suggest Putin is frequently accompanied by a specialist cancer physician.
- Another refuted report suggests Putin had a cardiac arrest in October and was taken to a special intensive care unit at his official residence after being revived by medical professionals.
- Life expectancy for Russian men was 68 years vs 78 years for Russian women in 2022.
- Putin is 72 so he is beating the Russian average for now.
Sudan – Military frees Khartoum after paramilitary fighters flee capital
- Sudan government forces have retaken Khartoum airport ejecting the rebel RSF “Sudanese Rapid Support Forces” from the city.
- RSF fighters, who are principally backed by the UAE have fled across the Jebel Aulia Dam which crosses the Nile river.
- Unfortunately, this is unlikely to mark an end to the war, just a relocation of the front line.
- The war has left some 150,000 dead and 11 million displaced.
- The Sudan military appear to have declared two airports in Chad as legitimate military targets indicating a potential broadening of the conflict.
Currencies
US$1.0780/eur vs 1.0761/eur previous. Yen 150.46/$ vs 150.56/$. SAr 18.183/$ vs 18.246/$. $1.295/gbp vs $1.291/gbp. 0.630/aud vs 0.631/aud. CNY 7.264/$ vs 7.266/$.
Dollar Index 104.325 vs 104.482 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,068/oz vs US$3,036/oz previous
Gold ETFs 87.8moz vs 87.7moz previous
Platinum US$985/oz vs US$976/oz previous
Palladium US$985/oz vs US$973/oz previous
Silver US$34.3/oz vs US$33.7/oz previous
Rhodium US$5,775/oz vs US$5,775/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,755/t vs US$9,890/t previous
Aluminium US$2,557/t vs US$2,611/t previous
Nickel US$16,350/t vs US$16,155/t previous
Zinc US$2,864/t vs US$2,944/t previous
Lead US$2,028/t vs US$2,083/t previous
Tin US$35,700/t vs US$35,110/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$73.7/bbl vs US$73.6/bbl previous
Henry Hub Gas US$3.91/mmBtu vs US$3.78/mmBtu yesterday
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged higher even as the EIA reported a 37bcf w/w build to 1,744bcf, with storage inventories falling to 24.2% below last year and 6.5% below the 5-year average. With average March gas output of 106bcf/d, we could see the first net inventory increase for this month since 2012.
- Woodside plans the $206m sale to Perenco of its Greater Angostura assets in Trinidad and Tobago, inclusive of the shallow water Angostura and Ruby offshore oil and gas fields, which is expected to close in 3Q25.
- Diversified Energy has placed $300m 4-year senior secured notes that will pay a fixed semi-annual coupon of 9.75% per annum, which will be used for repayment of existing debt and for general corporate purposes.
- The offshore Norway Northern Light partners have taken a final investment decision to invest $700m in Phase 2 of the project, which will increase the transport and storage capacity from 1.5mtpa to more than 5mtpa CO2 from 2028. First CO2 storage from Phase 1 of the project is expected to commence this summer.
Natural Gas €40.8/MWh vs €41.0/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $64.3/lb vs $64.3/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$103.3/t vs US$103.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$476.8/t vs US$477.2/t
HCC FOB Australia US$174.3/t vs US$174.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$100.0/t vs US$100.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,845/t vs US$33,610/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,642/t vs US$60,559/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,912/t vs US$9,910/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$805/t vs US$805/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$358/mtu vs US$358/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$435/t vs US$435/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$299/t vs US$299/t
Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,506/t vs US$1,506/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$335.0/t vs US$335.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg
Battery News
Mexican energy ministry sets new battery storage targets for renewables projects
- Renewable energy developers in Mexico will be required to install battery storage equivalent to 30% of a plant’s capacity.
- The batteries will need to store energy equivalent to at least three hours of discharge.
- Mexico plans to add 21.8GW of energy generation by 2030, of which 80% will be renewable.
- The planned additions will take Mexico’s clean energy to 38% of its total energy generation by 2030.
Mercedes recalls 12,308 EVs in China due to battery fire risk
- Mercedes-Benz joint venture Beijing Benz has begun the recall of 12,308 EVs in China due to the risk of fire in the power batteries.
- Some of the vehicles in the recall have a reduced battery reliability due to fluctuations in the high-voltage battery production process, the company said.
- The existing battery management software has also caused battery cells to experience excessive loads.
- Beijing Benz will upgrade the battery management system software of the affected vehicles through authorized dealers to eliminate safety hazards, the announcement said.
Company News
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 0.1% | 0.4% | Freeport-McMoRan | -3.6% | -1.8% |
| Rio Tinto | 1.0% | 2.3% | Vale | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Glencore | -0.1% | -0.6% | Newmont Mining | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Anglo American | -0.8% | 2.2% | Fortescue | -1.2% | 1.4% |
| Antofagasta | -0.7% | -2.9% | Teck Resources | -1.9% | -7.4% |
Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) 99p, Mkt Cap £380m – FY24 results and MRE upgrade delivering 51% growth in ounces
- The Company released FY24 results as well as updating its mineral resource at the Nalunaq Gold Project in Greenland.
- Construction of processing plant at Nalunaq continued in 4Q24 with first gold poured (1.2kg) in November.
- Construction activities included the installation of the gravity circuit, ball mill, feed conveyor, reclaimer, e-house, gold room shaking table, concentrator, furnace and oven and the thickener.
- Commissioning issues during winter months impacted commissioning activities between December and March with the Company to provide 2025 production guidance on 14 May (1Q25 update).
- The team is focused on stabilising operations to ramp up to 300tpd in 4Q25.
- Phase 2 construction and installation planned for 4Q25.
- EBIT of -C$20m (FY23: -C$22m)
- PAT of -C$23m (FY23: -C$1m)..
- CFO (before working capital) of -C$14m (FY23: -C$17m).
- FCF of -C$123m (FY23: -C$59m) with C$117m in capitalised project related costs.
- Liquidity stood at ~C$51m including cash balances, undrawn revolving credit facility less trade payables.
- The Company raised ~£28m in new equity in December (86p placing price) and entered into a credit agreement with Landsbankinn for a 2-year senior secured debt financing package of up to US$35m.
- Updated Nalunaq MRE stands at ~500kt at 30.13g/t for 484koz in total resource including:
- 151kt at 32.38g/t for 158koz in the Indicated category;
- 348kt at 29.16g/t for 326koz in the Inferred category.
- New MRE represents a 51% increase in contained ounces as well as includes maiden Indicated resource.
- Key resource expansion in the Valley Block and Mountain Block extension areas, reinforcing the potential for further growth.
- New MRE incorporates additional 65drill holes (61 surface and 2 underground) as well as additional underground channel and chip samples.
- The team is suggesting updated MRE the potential mine life can be extended from ~6y to ~10y.
- The MRE used 5.9g/t COG and US$2,100/oz gold price assumption.
- Previous MRE (2022) stood at 320koz at 28.00g/t using 5.0g/t COG and $1,800/oz gold price.
- Bara Consulting also provided an exploration target for the Nalunaq Project of 0.6-2.3mt at 10-30g/t for additional 0.2-2.3moz.
Allied Gold (AAUC CN) C$5., Mkt Cap C$1.6bn – Full year results show accelerating growth programme in Ethiopia and Mali
- Gold miner and developer Allied Gold reported 358koz gold production in 2024, vs 344koz produced 2023.
- Company reported an AISC of $1,699/oz over the year, up from $1,569/oz 2023.
- Allied guides for Kurmuk first production in mid-2026, following $100m in CAPEX over 2024.
- Allied raised $161.6m in an equity placing and received a $250m funding package for Kurmuk from Wheaton over 2024.
- Addtioinally, Allied has entered into a strategic arrangement with a UAE fund over asset/corporate stakes.
- 2025 production guided at 375-400koz with AISC at US$1,690-1,790/oz.
- Higher AISC reflects Agreement with Government of Mali among other factors.
Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – 0.94p, mkt cap £28m – BKM optimised feasibility study nears completion
- Kalimantan copper developer Asiamet provides an update on the BKM project.
- Asiamet is finalising supplementary analysis on power supply in line with lender financing requests.
- Upon completion of this, the DFS will be published.
- Company notes major engineering and project definition work is complete, reducing overall project risk.
- Lower CAPEX and reduced construction complexity anticipated.
- Company notes strong lender engagement.
- Annual work plan approved for limestone resource drill programme for copper neutralisation process plant and water treatment.
Conclusion: Asiamet is in the final stages of their project optimisation process and reports strong and continued engagement with lenders and financiers.
B2Gold (BTO CN) C$4.5, Mkt Cap C$6bn – Goose Project update, as company firm CAPEX estimate
- B2 Gold reports an update on their Goose Project in Nunavut, Canada, following the Back River Technical Report release.
- The Company has boosted indicated mineral resource grade by 16% to 15.5mt at 7.2g/t Au for 3.56moz Au.
- Inferred gold grade boosted by 14% to 10.1mt at 7.5g/t Au for 2.44moz.
- Company is using a new geological model.
- Reserves over LOM production c.2.3moz Au for average annual gold production of 300kozpa for the first six years.
- Average gold grade processed expected to be up 14% vs FS at 6.8g/t Au, with 92.5% recoveries.
- Management now see a long-term AISC of $1,360/oz with a current AISC of $1,547/oz.
Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) 4.6p, Mkt Cap £130m – £3.2m equity raise
- The Company is raising £3.15m through an issue of new equity at 4.4p as the team continues discussions regarding a potential sale of its Russian PGM mining assets.
- In addition, the Company will be issuing one for one warrant with an exercise price of 8.7p (100% premium to the placing price) with a two year exercise period.
- Proceeds to be used to maintain London listing, fund planned dual listing on the Astana International Exchange (AIX) in Kazakhstan as well as replace 2.5p convertible loan facility from Sanderson.
- New shares are placed with US and UK institutional investors.
- The Company highlighted American interest in exploration of critical minerals in the Russian Arctic hosting Eurasia’s Kola projects.
- The interest is supported by US institutions investing into the Company amid the change in geopolitical landscape and discussed economic cooperation between the US and Russia.
- The issue price represents a 8% discount to the last closing mid price.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Eurasia Mining
Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 0.98p, Mkt Cap £9m – Gold loan interest conversion
- The Company issues 49m new shares to Asian Investment Management Services in exchange for 248oz in accumulated interest on the existing gold loan.
- New shares represent 5.2% of enlarged share capital and take AIMSL shareholding to 25.7%.
- The outstanding gold loan including accrued interest now stands at 2.3koz with 1.9koz in principal and 0.4koz in outstanding interest (14%pa).
Conclusion: Conversion of accrued interest into shares reiterates AIMSL’s support for the Company as the team is ramping up operations at the heap leach operation in Ghana.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Goldstone Resources
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 13.4p, Mkt Cap £35.6m – Closing of upsized C$6m placing to fund gold exploration in Colombia
- Orosur reports the closing of their placing of 35.3m C$0.17/unit for gross proceeds of C$6m.
- Each unit will consist of one common share and one half of one common share purchase warrant (exercisable at C$0.25/share).
- The warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one common share at C$0.25 within 24 months of the closing date.
- The placing includes the full exercise of the agent’s options for C$1m, suggesting strong demand.
- Orosur states that the directors ‘were unable to participate in the Offering as previously anticipated’ owing to ’the high level of investor demand.’
- The Company will use the funds to progress exploration at Anzá.
Conclusion: Orosur is now well-funded to progress the Pepas project, having drilled out the high-grade zone, boosting their understanding of the geometry of the gold mineralisation which seems to be defined by two converging faults. We see the prospectivity of scale to the north as a potential game-changer for the Company, and this placing will enable the Company to progress vital exploration, whilst gold continues to pushing past $3,000/oz.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
DISCLAIMER
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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return
