SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Friday 19th June 2026

Gold continues to weaken as dollar extends gains following Fed meeting

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Energy Fuels (UUUU US) – Conditional $725m loan from the US government

KEFI Copper and Gold* (KEFI LN) – BUY, 4.2p – US$400m mining contract with BCM

Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – 2025 results shed light on the dismissal of former Chairman and CFO and emphasise the quality of the Empire mine project in Idaho

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 18.5p – FLASH NOTE – Site visit notes

Serabi Gold plc (SRB N) – AGM statement highlights strong performance into 2026. Shareholder vote on renumeration report and policy

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) – Widespread exploration programmes begin across Namibia, Botswana and Cote d’Ivoire

Gold ($4,170/oz) continues to weaken as dollar extends gains following Fed meeting

• Gold prices are down another 1% this morning, having touched lows of $4,121/oz overnight.
• The metal rallied in the wake of the US-Iran MoU for peace, rising over $4,300/oz before reversing course.
• The move lower was triggered by a more hawkish Fed meeting, with Warsh emphasising commitment to bringing down inflation.
• The dollar rallied on the back of the meeting, with the index now firming over 100.
• Comments from Trump regarding a return to military escalation in Iran also pressured the gold price.

Potash ($402/t) prices hold higher levels as India looks to increase Belarussian purchases

• Potash prices have strengthened in the wake of wider fertiliser-based disruptions from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz.
• Urea prices are up 16%yoy, while DAP and MAP prices are up 13% and 15% respectively.
• Liquid fertilisers have also rallied, with anhydrous ammonia up 41%yoy.
• Potash’s supply outlook took another hit this week as BHP delayed Jansen another 2 years, with another major CAPEX blowout reported.
• Indian companies are increasing their purchases of Belarussian potash, with IPL reportedly paying $383/t, a $34/t increase on their previous contract.
• Prices in the wider fertiliser market have softened in recent weeks as traffic begins to return through the Straits of Hormuz.

Copper — Freeport plans to restart its Indonesian smelter

• Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) plans to start its new Manyar copper smelter in East Java in September, processing concentrate from August.
• Manyar is Freeport’s second smelter and will take about 15% of Grasberg’s copper this year.
• Grasberg is at about 50% of normal after a September 2025 landslide, recovering to full by early 2028.
• The government, via MIND ID ‘Indonesia’s state-owned mining holding company’, already owns 51% of PTFI, with Freeport holding the rest.
• Freeport has now offered a further 12% stake by 2041, lifting the government’s share to about 63%, to extend its mining licence (IUPK).

Nickel — New mines and plants move closer to production

• Brazilian Nickel is seeking an anchor investor for its $1.4bn Piauí nickel-cobalt project in Brazil.
• It already has backing from TechMet and advice from Rothschild, and is also chasing government money from Canada, Europe, and Brazil’s BNDES.
• The mine aims for 28,000t of nickel a year from early 2030, giving the West supply that avoids China and Indonesia.
• Nickel Industries, an Australian-listed firm with large plants in Indonesia, says its new ENC plant is nearly running.
• ENC ‘its nickel-cobalt project in Sulawesi’ should make first MHP in mid-July and refined nickel by mid-August,
• MHP ‘Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate’ is a half-processed nickel-cobalt product used to make batteries.
• In Canada, SLAM Exploration (TSXV: SXL) drilled over 30m of massive sulphide at its Goodwin nickel project, though grades are still pending.

Tin — LME approves the ITA’s Tin Code for responsible sourcing

• The LME has approved the ITA’s Tin Code as a verified, OECD-aligned responsible-sourcing standard.
• The ITA ‘International Tin Association’ is the global tin industry body.
• That matters because much tin comes from higher-risk places like Myanmar and the DRC, so clean supply is now an edge.
• Supply also stays tight, with weak Indonesian exports, a slow Myanmar Wa restart, and unrest hitting Bolivia.

Currencies

US$1.1446/eur vs 1.1510/eur previous. Yen 161.34/$ vs 160.61/$. SAr 16.490/$ vs 16.376/$. $1.319/gbp vs $1.330/gbp. 0.701/aud vs 0.703/aud. CNY 6.769/$ vs 6.763/$.

Dollar Index 100.91 vs 100.31 previous.

Economics

US/Iran peace talks would not be taking place on Friday raising uncertainty whether a lasting truce can be agreed on.

• Israel is found distancing itself from the deal keeping fighting against the Iranian allied Hezbollah in Lebanon.

China – may have acquired an ASML semiconductor machine according to US intelligence in violation of export controls

• We believe it will be very difficult to use the machine without expert ASML support though China may seek to reverse engineer the technology.

UK – Andy Burnham secured a victory in the Makerfield by-election on his way to challenge Labour leadership.

• The Greater Manchester mayor secured more than half the votes cast (~55%) with Reform coming in second (~35%).
• He is expected to meet with Keir Starmer over the weekend to try an persuade the PM to set a date for his exit.

Ukraine/Russia – Ukraine hit Moscow with nearly 200 drones in the largest attack on the capital yesterday.

• Drones hit the Moscow’s largest oil refinery in the south east of the city.
• At least 16 people were injured including two children, FT cites local authorities.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,158/oz vs US$4,299/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.1moz vs 97.1moz previous

Platinum US$1,682/oz vs US$1,737/oz previous

Palladium US$1,278/oz vs US$1,323/oz previous

Silver US$64.9/oz vs US$68.7/oz previous

Silver ETFs 785.6moz vs 785.6moz previous

Rhodium US$8,000/oz vs US$8,000/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,606/t vs US$13,732/t previous

Aluminium US$3,403/t vs US$3,407/t previous

Nickel US$17,813/t vs US$17,905/t previous

Zinc US$3,622/t vs US$3,581/t previous

Lead US$1,972/t vs US$1,968/t previous

Tin US$55,161/t vs US$54,260/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$80.2/bbl vs US$78.4/bbl previous
Natural Gas €40.5/MWh vs €40.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.6/lb vs $85.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.4/t vs US$99.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$484.9/t vs US$486.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$244.0/t vs US$243.8/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$135.5/t vs US$135.5/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$106,827/t vs US$103,972/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,731/t vs US$24,051/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,400/t vs US$2,400/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,765/mtu vs US$1,765/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$228/lb vs US$228/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.2/kg vs US$27.2/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$225/t vs US$229/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,161/t vs US$1,162/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$402.5/t vs US$402.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vs US$4,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.0/lb vs US$31.0/lb

EV & Battery news:

Company news:

Energy Fuels (UUUU US) US$17, Mkt cap US$4.1bn – Conditional $725m loan from the US government

• The Company signed a conditional $725m loan commitment with Department of War, US Office of Strategic Capital.
• A 20y loan to fund expansion of critical minerals processing at White Mesa Mill in Utah and a planned rare earth metals and alloy facility.
• Earlier this year, the Company announced a ~US$300m acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials that operated a rare earth metal and alloy making facilities in South Korea.
• The loan is conditional on further due diligence, finalisation of agreements, customary closing conditions and approvals.

KEFI Copper and Gold* (KEFI LN) 1.1p, Mkt Cap £155m – US$400m mining contract with BCM

BUY – 4.2p

• The Company signed a more than $400m Tulu Kapi mining contract with BCM Group.
• The contract covers the initial nine year mine life.
• The agreement follows BCM’s recent mobilisation in the country already providing bulk earthworks and drilling services for TKGM, a holder of the mining license.

Conclusion: Development momentum builds at the Tulu Kapi Gold Project as the Company signs a $400m mining contract with BCM after securing project funding.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 1.25p, Mkt Cap £3.6m – 2025 results shed light on the dismissal of former Chairman and CFO and emphasise the quality of the Empire mine project in Idaho

(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)

• Phoenix Copper reports a loss of $4.4m for the year to 31^st December 2025 (2024 loss $7.1m – “restated to reflect the reversal of unauthorised transactions” which resulted in the dismissal of the company’s former Chairman and CFO).
• Interim non-executive Chair, Catherine Evans, apologised unreservedly to shareholders for “the events referred to in our announcements of 9th February and 9th March 2026, whereby our former Executive Chairman and former Chief Financial Officer made unauthorised payments to Lloyd Edwards-Jones SAS (“LEJ”) without the current Board’s knowledge or approval”.
• She explained that “These payments took place over a 9-year period since the initial IPO and were unknown and unauthorised by any other Board member, past or present … [and confirmed that Phoenix Copper] … is taking active steps within the law to seek reimbursement of the unauthorised payments from Marcus Edwards-Jones and Richard Wilkins”.
• In 2026, the company has “received a repayment of $40,000 … [which will be] … included in the financial statements for the current year ending 31 December 2026”.
• Investigation has “also uncovered other unauthorised payments amounting to $0.64 million, the majority of which was paid to a third-party intermediary in connection with potential additional issues of 10-year copper bonds. These payments were also made without Board knowledge or approval”.
• Ms. Evans commented that “stakeholders have justifiably questioned how these transactions were able to occur in a business with appropriate corporate governance safeguards … [and said that] …. The specific control weakness identified was that dual control of the bank mandate was held by the two individuals in question”.
• Remedial action to rectify these shortcomings includes circulating “bank statements … to all Board members monthly along with reconciled monthly management reports, to ensure full transparency of all cash movement”.
• Operationally, she explained that “the development of the Empire Mine and related mining properties … requires the Company to consider additional sources of finance to progress the development of the mine … [and said that the] … macro-economic environment and current metals prices are in our favour, and the excellent economics of the Empire Mine and related mining properties remain as compelling as ever”.
• She thanked retiring “members of our advisory board, Dennis Thomas and Andre Cohen, all the very best following their retirement, and to thank them both for their immense contribution to the Company over the years”.
• Commenting that the corporate issues relating to the former Chairman and CFO the Chief Executive, Ryan McDermott, explained that their actions had no impact on the “mineral resources or reserves” of the Empire mine which remain “unchanged, as has the mineral potential on our surrounding exploration projects”.
• He outlined the way forward as “quite simple.  Funding – detailed engineering – permitting – construction – production” and reiterated the findings of the September 2024 PFS while pointing out that current metal prices are higher than prevailed in 2024 with copper at US$6.33/lb (previously US$4.45/lb), gold at US$4,348/oz (formerly US$2,325/oz) and silver at US$68.11/oz (formerly US$27.25/oz).
• In the context of these elevated commodity prices, Mr. McDermott said that “the outlook for mining and milling at Empire is outstanding.  Despite the recent challenges faced by the Company”.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 6.2p, Mkt Cap £158m – FLASH NOTE – Site visit notes

BUY – 18.5p

CLICK HERE

• The Company hosted a site visit to the Barroso Lithium Project in Northern Portugal last week. Key takeaways below.
• DFS on track for July 2026; no material design changes anticipated from the 2023 Scoping Study (1.5Mtpa, DMS/flotation flowsheet, ~190ktpa SC5.5).
• RECAPE submission reiterated for 4Q26, triggering a 50-business day hard-deadline review; environmental licence completion expected 1Q27. Notably, no project that has cleared the DIA stage has to date failed at RECAPE.
• Environmental workstream progressing; baseline studies (air quality, noise, vibration) ongoing alongside targeted work addressing points raised during the DIA process.
• Mine design configured to minimise community and environmental impact: no water drawn from local rivers, no housing relocation, dynamic pit backfilling, dry-stacked TSF, and haulage roads routed away from local villages.
• Community engagement materially strengthened over the past two years –growing local hiring and improving communication over direct and indirect economic benefits from environmentally responsible mining operation;
• Local stakeholder profile raised with Portuguese nationals represented across management and the Board; local investors holding just over 25% of the register.
• Land acquisition process of privately owned land (~25% of project area) is ongoing while discussions with the Covas do Barroso Baldios remain challenging; voluntary acquisition is the target, though current regulation permits compulsory consolidation, a mechanism with local precedent in infrastructure projects such as roads and wind/hydro power.
• Strong central government support underwritten by the up to €110M Portuguese State grant and Strategic Project Status under the EC CRMA.
• MRE expansion and scale optionality are not in the base case with step-out drilling expected post-commissioning.

Conclusion: The site visit reinforces our conviction in the project with DFS (July) and RECAPE (1Q27) timelines intact, environmental workstreams progressing, and community engagement materially improved. Fundamentals remain unchanged: EU’s largest spodumene resource (with MRE expansion upside), conventional flowsheet, good infrastructure, up to €110m state grant (strong central government support signal), AMG strategic partnership and supportive local investor base. Strategic location (EU’s 2nd largest EV market) and the absence of competing regional spodumene deposits position Barroso as a prime source for future European lithium refinery capacity and a credible M&A target.  Clear catalysts ahead: DFS to tighten design and economics to be used to advance project funding discussions; RECAPE approval the long-awaited major re-rating event.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Serabi Gold plc (SRB N) 320p, Mkt cap 244m – AGM statement highlights strong performance into 2026. Shareholder vote on renumeration report and policy

• Serabi’s AGM statement highlights good progress at the Palito and Coringa gold mines in Brazil
• The group raised gold production by 18% to 44,169oz of gold last year with 12,042oz in Q1’26.

• • Palito mine treated ~25kt of ore in Q1 @ 5.90g/t gold in Q1 for 4,592oz of gold
  • Coringa produced ~30kt of ore in Q1 @ 8.01g/t for a further 7,450oz of gold
  • Guidance:53-57,000oz of gold for 2026.

• Palito: Gold grades improved at the Palito mine complex to 6.04 g/t in 2025 vs 4.86 g/t in 2024.

• • It may be difficult for the mine to maintain this grade with management focussing on quality over quantity last year.
  • Production for 2026 should exceed last year helped by the installation of the 4th ball mill at Palito which raises plant capacity to 900tpd from 600tpd at Palito.

• Coringa: saw production from a second zone speeding up production.

• • Production from the Meio zone is mechanised which should lead to an improvement in efficiency, speed and safety as production ramps up at the mine.
  • Exploration:  >30,000m was drilled in the first brownfield drill campaign in 15 years

• Ore sorting: at Coringa enabling the processing of lower grade ores stockpiled at Coringa with higher grade ore transported 200km Palito for processing.

• • Higher grade run-of-mine ores are now being pre-concentrated at Coringa for before trucking Palito Complex.
  • The average trucked grade from Coringa this year is ~8 g/t gold with the trucking cost equivalent to ~0.30g/t of gold.

• Total Resource Inventory rose to 1.4Moz from 1.0Moz by January and is on track for 1.5moz Au – 2.0moz of gold in Phase II.

• • Serabi recently reports an increase in its mineral resource inventory with a total of 731,000oz classed as ‘Measured & Indicated’ (previously 567,000oz) and an additional 653,000 in the ‘Inferred’ category (previously 435,000oz).
  • The Palito mine hosts a ‘Measured & Indicated’ resource of 1.27mt at an average grade of 9.5g/t gold (388,600oz) with an additional 744kt of ‘Inferred’ resources at an average grade of 6.5g/t (156,600oz).
  • Sao Chico contributes a ‘Measured & Indicated’ resource of 151kt at an average grade of 7.9g/t gold (38,400oz) with an additional 8kt of ‘Inferred’ resources at an average grade of 6.5g/t (1,700oz).
  • At Coringa, [i]Serabi Gold reports a ‘Measured & Indicated’ resource of 1.43mt at an average grade of 9.3g/t gold (427,000oz) with an additional 0.75mt of ‘Inferred’ resources at an average grade of 6.6g/t (158,300oz).
  • Another 30,000m of drilling planned this year with the discovery of the Serra South zone at Coringa, just 500m south of the Serra zone offering potential for more higher-grade ore.

• Permitting:
• Coringa is running under a 3-year ‘GU’ license which permits mining and transportation of 100,000t of ore over three years.
• The license runs till 27^th January 2027, when it will require further renewal.
• Management hope to have received an ‘IL’ (Installation License) by then to build a new plant at Coringa.

• • “The LI is issued by SEMAS, the State Environmental Agency, however for them to approve we require two prior authorizations from two government agencies.
  • The first authorization comes from FUNAI, the government agency for the indigenous communities. This authorization comes in two parts, firstly the approval of an Indigenous Impact study (“the ECI”), and once approved, a compensation agreement with the indigenous communities based on the findings in the ECI. I am delighted to say that in March of this year, FUNAI presented the ECI to all Indigenous groups and this was unanimously approved, so we are now entering the compensation agreement. This agreement is based on impacts only highlighted in the ECI. We are optimistic this can be settled quickly now the ECI has been approved.
  • The second authorization comes from INCRA, the government agency for land use. The company is negotiating the change of land use at Coringa from agriculture to mineral extraction. INCRA has now approved this at state level, so we are also optimistic the approval at Federal level will shortly follow. With these two approvals from FUNAI and INCRA, SEMAS can issue the LI.”

• Unfortunately, if the trucking license is not issued and the Instillation License for Coringa is also not received in time this might reduce/halt gold production from Coringa.
• Shareholders vote against the approval of the Directors’ Remuneration Report by 52.34% vs 47.66% in favour.
• P82 annual report:

• • “Given the proximity to the 2025 year-end and timing of the bonus determination the Committee considered it appropriate to adjust the 2025 bonus outcome rather than forfeit the health and safety element of the 2026 annual bonus. This has resulted in bonuses of 67.5% and 58.5% of salary for Mike Hodgson and Colm Howlin respectively”
  • Michael Hodgson, ceo, is on US$486,000 plus US$81,000 bonus and US$591,000 IFRS charge for options granted
  • Colm Howlin is on US$131,000 plus US$37,000 and 133,000 IFRS charge for options granted

• Shareholders also voted against the approval of the Directors’ Remuneration Policy         by 50.37% vs 49.63% in favor

Conclusion: Serabi is working hard to raise production through 2026. There is some permitting risk but there is time to work through the process and there is significant opportunity to further develop the mine at Coringa into a more substantial producer.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) 22p, Mkt Cap £7.5m – Widespread exploration programmes begin across Namibia, Botswana and Cote d’Ivoire

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• Serval Resources, Namibian and Botswanan copper-silver explorer, provide an update on various work programmes.
• In Namibia, Serval is targeting extensions of the Central African Copper Belt sediment-hosted copper mineralisation.
• Serval is focusing initial exploration work in Namibia on the Omatapati, Horsehoe and Otjozongombe prospects, with historical drilling returning highlights of 19m at 2.6% Cu.
• Serval is conducting a combination of detailed geological mapping and geophysics to target areas extending into alluvium cover.
• Trenching will also be completed to support structural analysis of the geology.
• The initial phase of exploration work is intended to delineate drill targets for a maiden drilling programme in 4Q26.
• In Botswana, Serval will continue to focus on the 232 and 235 clusters, along strike from the Khoemacau mine operated by MMG.
• High-resolution drone magnetic and AMT surveys will be conducted followed by soil sampling on areas identified with prospective horizons.
• In the Cote d’Ivoire, Serval will conduct a capital-light exploration programme utilising ground magnetics and systemic soil sampling to better refine the Mo-Cu anomaly identified in the 1970s.

Conclusion: Serval is undertaking a widespread and comprehensive exploration programme across its three projects in Namibia, Botswana and Cote d’Ivoire. A combination of geophysics and soil sampling programmes, complimented by trenching and mapping, should delineate high-priority drill-targets in Namibia for a maiden drilling programme in 4Q26. The Company continues to develop their understanding of the Kalahari Copper Belt geology and is starting more focused geophysics targeting to better refine key areas for mineralised copper-silver. We continue to see Serval as one of the most exciting junior explorers in Africa and look forward to further updates as the expansive programme gets underway

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Serval

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Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

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Sales

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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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