Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, 80 Mile, Gran Tierra, Georgina, KEFI, London BTC, Marechale, Medpal, Pensana, Rockfire, S4, Seraphim.
Markets are looking increasingly geared towards peace prospects, although the technical setups still matter more than headlines. The FTSE 100 is calm, the DAX and Dow are pushing higher, gold has found fresh momentum, and crude oil is struggling below a key long-term moving average.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Major Indices: DAX and Dow Lead the Risk-On Move
FTSE 100: Holding Above 10,700 Is the Priority
The FTSE 100 has been relatively subdued while the market waits for the alleged final peace deal. Recent support sits around 10,830, with the more important former July resistance level near 10,760.
The main bullish trigger would be an end-of-day close above the March resistance line at roughly 11,050. A sustained break there would open the way towards 11,500, potentially by the end of the month.
On the downside, a move back below 10,760 could trigger a sharper retracement towards the 50-day moving average near 10,545. Ideally, the index remains above the 10,700 area and keeps the current recovery structure intact.
DAX: Peace Optimism Has Already Lifted the Index
The DAX has responded much more enthusiastically to improving peace expectations. The earlier end-of-month target of 26,300 has already been reached.
Above that level, the focus turns to the upper boundary of the rising trend channel from March. That projects towards 27,200 by the end of the month.
The key area to protect is former late-July resistance at approximately 25,500 to 25,600. The recent consolidation resembles a small bull flag, so remaining above that zone would keep the upside case alive.
Dow: A Gap Above Resistance Is a Strong Momentum Signal
The Dow looks like the market gaining the most from the current mood. It has gapped above resistance, and that is often one of the strongest momentum signals available on a chart.
The previous target around 53,300 has been surpassed. The next best-case target is near 54,900, based on a projected November resistance line.
If the market loses momentum, the July resistance breakout area around 52,700 is the obvious retracement destination. Given the high expectations now built into the market, that risk should not be ignored.
Cryptocurrency Charts: Bitcoin Stabilises While Ethereum Consolidates
Bitcoin: Dips Towards the 50-Day Average Remain Constructive
Bitcoin has managed to regain the right side of its 50-day moving average, currently around 63,100. That is the important positive development, even if the latest price action has started to soften.
For now, dips towards the 50-day moving average can be regarded as buying opportunities, with mid-July support near 61,000 acting as the key risk level.
A breakdown below that support would weaken the setup considerably and could expose the late-March support projection around 56,000. At present, that remains the less likely scenario.
The RSI remains unconvincing because it is hovering either side of the neutral 50 level. That does not provide a particularly strong momentum signal, so price needs to remain above the 50-day line to keep the technical picture constructive.
Ethereum: A Rising 50-Day Line Supports the Consolidation
Ethereum is continuing to consolidate around a rising 50-day moving average, which is encouraging. The market has bounced towards the 1,800 area, with the 50-day line sitting near 1,796.
As long as Ethereum stays above that moving average, the next target is the 200-day moving average around 2,073. That remains the likely upside objective later in the month.
The RSI is holding around the neutral 50 level, which is a modest positive. It suggests the market is not overextended while it builds a base.
Commodities: Gold Breaks Higher While Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable
Gold: Back Above 4,090 and Looking Bullish Again
Gold is up around 2% and has broken above resistance from early last month in the 4,090 to 4,100 area. Recent price action has once again shown that peace-related developments can coincide with a stronger gold market.
The longer gold remains above 4,090, the greater the chance of a return to late-June resistance around 4,380. That would mark a significant change after a long period of consolidation.
The RSI trend line is also beginning to look more supportive, with several touchpoints suggesting that bullish momentum may finally be returning.
For those wanting greater confirmation, a break above July resistance around 4,205 would provide a stronger signal that the market is heading towards 4,380.
WTI Crude Oil: Below the 200-Day Average, Momentum Points Lower
Crude oil is underperforming despite the absence of a final peace announcement. The market is now below its 200-day moving average near $76.35, which had been the key bearish call.
The longer WTI remains below that level, the greater the chance of a further move towards $70. That outcome is not inevitable, but it has to be part of the technical calculation, particularly with a potentially sticky peace deal involving Iran.
An end-of-day close back above the 200-day moving average would improve the outlook and could bring $80 back into view, where the 50-day moving average sits.
For now, the two recent downside gaps suggest that momentum is biased towards $70, with rallies likely capped around $80 in the near term.
Technical Levels to Keep on the Radar
- FTSE 100: 10,760 support, 11,050 breakout trigger, 11,500 upside target.
- DAX: Hold 25,500 to 25,600 for a potential move towards 27,200.
- Dow: 52,700 is the key pullback level, while 54,900 is the upside objective.
- Bitcoin: 63,100 is the 50-day reference point and 61,000 is key support.
- Gold: Above 4,090 remains constructive, with 4,205 needed for stronger confirmation.
- WTI crude oil: Below $76.35 keeps the $70 risk alive, while a recovery above it could target $80.
- Seraphim Space: Above 174p, the rising trend channel points towards 205p to 210p.
These are chart-based scenarios rather than guarantees. The strongest setups are generally those holding above broken resistance, rising moving averages and RSI 50, while the main risk remains a failure to hold those support levels on an end-of-day closing basis.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
