WTI (Oct) $83.50 +$1.30, Brent (Oct) $89.70 +$1.86, Diff -$6.17 +56c.
USNG (Oct)* $2.91 -1c, UKNG (Oct)* 170.06p +10.35p, TTF (Oct) €68.97 +€3.655.
*Denotes expiry of the September contracts.
Oil price
Oil is flat today as Trump says that he has ‘no interest’ in reviving the MOU even though mediators have been saying that talks are imminent. But the gas price is up again as less physical supply means that traders are coming to terms with quite how awful the European gas storage situation is as we head into September next week.
The big rumour around this morning is that Axios reveal that Venezuela is considering leaving Opec as stories abound that the USA is about to take a large and direct stake in ‘at least a dozen’ oil fields in the country. This would be a massive deal and actually make some sense as the USA could formalise its supply of the heavy crude that supplies a number of key refineries in the states.
And Andy Burnham has apparently, in an interview with the FT, said that Labour must take a more ‘pragmatic approach’ to net zero and with both Jackdaw and Rosebank up for imminent approval can take advantage of the recent rain to see the wild fires issue relegated in the public eye.
PetroTal Corp
I have noted with interest this week that PetroTal announced that Gavin Wilson, NED has bought 599,000 shares in the market making his holding 934,000 shares. This is a substantial vote of confidence so I thought I would put pen to paper with my current thoughts about PetroTal.
PetroTal is about to begin a fully funded, multi-well drilling campaign that is expected to grow production to more than 20,000 bopd within the next year. Compared to average 2026 production of approximately 12,000 bopd, that is a growth rate of more than 65% YoY, which if achieved would place PetroTal in the top decile of its global small/mid-cap E&P peers.
As reported with its recent Q2 2026 results, PetroTal holds $105 million in unrestricted cash with just $37 million of debt, against a market cap of approximately $340 million. At prevailing oil prices, the company reports above average operating margins (~$50.00/bbl in the second quarter) and is generating run rate EBITDA of more than $40 million per quarter.
Accordingly I note that PetroTal shares trade at a deep discount to peers on both cash flow and reserve-based metrics — a gap that should close as newsflow picks up around the imminent drilling program. This means that at some stage in the not to distant future the board will be thinking about reinstating the dividend which given the strong numbers would in my view be perfectly possible but also justifies that previous decision.
The shares have started to recover, at 29p the shares are up 16% on 1 month, +22% over 6 months but still down 24% year on year. My target price is still 75p which given the numbers above does not actually look demanding and it would not surprise me if I increased that target before long. Finally I am so glad that I took the decision to keep PetroTal in the Bucket List as I think that recent performance justifies that with plenty more to come.
Borders & Southern Petroleum
Borders & Southern welcome the recent news from Navitas and Rockhopper regarding the accelerated development of Sea Lion. The steadfast dedication by Navitas demonstrates their confidence in the basin and the favourable fiscal regime. In particular, the Company would like to congratulate Sam Moody and his Rockhopper team in achieving a substantial capital raise, at minimal discount, to finance their share of the extra capex requirements. The commitment to secure a second FPSO and the concomitant substantial capital committed, reinforces the irrevocable journey the Falkland Islands is making to becoming a new oil province. For Borders & Southern, this continues to point the spotlight towards this nascent hydrocarbon region, and reenforces our own experience of support for renewed investor interest.
Borders & Southern have 100% interest in all our acreage licences and have a substantial discovery, 462 MM bbls (P50) of recoverable liquid hydrocarbons with huge potential exploration upside. After a decade of under investment by the Major oil companies, there has been a plethora of M&A transactions along the Atlantic Margins over the past 18 months as ‘Big Oil’ looks to replace their declining reserves. De-risked resources of Darwin’s scale are few and far between and are highly attractive to the oil industry.
The Company continue to engage with multiple third parties in the farm out process, significant progress has been made and we look forward to updating the market when the process concludes.
Not wanting to miss out on the Falklands frenzy this week Borders have put out a ‘don’t forget about us’ RNS which apart from blowing smoke up Sam reminds us that they are still in negotiations with ‘multiple parties’ and that significant progress has been made.
This is the reason that I put Borders into the Bucket List back in February as a high beta play on Darwin and that continues to be the case, in fact the shares are up around 19% since then and my reasons for inclusion were for a much bigger gain as and when a farm-out is announced.
My target price for the company is 50p which is admittedly high wide and handsome but if you look at similar plays when for example Navitas have been involved, and here I think that supermajors are quite possibly in the data room, a deal would be incredibly rewarding. No comment from the CEO in today’s announcement but I know where to find him in extremis…
Rockhopper Exploration
Rockhopper yesterday announced that the Company has raised approximately US$180 million (approximately £132.4 million) through the placing of 189,210,582 New Ordinary Shares with existing and new institutional investors at a fixed price of 70 pence per share via an accelerated bookbuild.
The Placing attracted strong demand from existing and new institutional investors and was significantly oversubscribed at the Issue Price.
The Placing Shares being issued represent approximately 22% of the existing issued ordinary share capital of the Company prior to the Placing. The Placing was conducted using the Company’s existing share authorities.
Open Offer
As detailed in the Company’s announcement of 27 August 2026 titled “Proposed Capital Raising”, the Company has also launched an Open Offer to provide Qualifying Shareholders with the opportunity to subscribe for New Ordinary Shares at the Issue Price. A circular containing full details of the Open Offer and the expected timetable will be posted to Shareholders on 28 August 2026 and made available on the Company’s website shortly thereafter.
Sam Moody, CEO of Rockhopper Exploration plc, said:
“We are delighted with the strong response from investors. The support reflects the compelling opportunity presented by Sea Lion and the value uplift to project Net Present Value, as highlighted in yesterday’s announcement. We are also pleased to offer qualifying shareholders the opportunity to participate in this exciting development through the Open Offer.”
Nothing to add here, as expected the issue was significantly oversubscribed which is what happens when you offer free money around. It must be galling to all those berks who have spent the last few years dissing the Falklands and I look forward to seeing them drinking the barrels of oil that they promised when they said that Sea Lion wouldn’t happen…
And finally…
A bit of sport this weekend but F1 manages a week off after a four week holiday and we wait for Monza next week.
In the Prem tonight sees the Eagles hosting the Noisy Neighbours ahead of a full fixture list over the Bank Holiday weekend. Tomorrow Forest visit Anfield, it’s the Cherries v the Toffees, newly promoted sides The Tigers are at the Sky Blues and Spurs host the Magpies. On Sunday Chelsea entertain the Seagulls, the Bees are at Elland Road, the Black Cats host the Cottagers and the Red Devils start their home campaign against another promotee in the Tractor Boys. Bank Holiday Monday sees Villa shorn of most of their squad face top of the table and Premier League favourites the Gooners.
Racing is a bit of after the York show with Goodwood on Saturday and Sunday and what was the glorious Waterford Crystal Mile is now the Virgin Bet Mile, how the mighty have fallen. Also racing at Sandown where it seems that most of the top jockeys and trainers are represented.
The US Open tennis starts on Sunday but that’s been boring as hell lately with no players of note any more, they even make the mixed doubles tournament an event in its own right…
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest
The information, investment views and recommendations in this article are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engaging in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the writer but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The writer may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
