Kupiansk has been the focus of fighting since Russian forces fled a surprise Ukrainian offensive in north Ukraine around Kharkiv last week. However, military bloggers from both sides now claim that Russia’s defense has collapsed again.
#Ukrainian soldiers have broken through #Russia's frontline along the #OskilRiver, exposing an important supply route and swathes of territory that the #Kremlin has promised to defend. #Russian media reported shootings and explosions in #Kherson. pic.twitter.com/NmMB1kxUzd
— Share_Talk ™ (@Share_Talk) September 18, 2022
“Kupiansk has surrendered. Vladlen Tatarsky, a pro-Russian military blogger, said last night that the enemy was on the left bank Oskil river.
The development was confirmed by Western commentators. James Rushton (a British military analyst who is based in Ukraine) stated that he did not believe that Russian forces could hold on to their defensive line along the Oskil River for long.
He said, “The Ukrainians already crossed it.” “Considering they now control all of Kupiansk and half of the city lies on the eastern bank. Any defensive line they might attempt to build along the river is already extremely vulnerable,” he said.
After a surprise Ukrainian offensive, Russian forces fled across the Oskil River that runs north-south through central Russia to Ukraine. They have retaken approximately 2,500 sq miles of territory, which is almost as large as Devon.
The largest and most valuable towns that the Ukrainian military captured were Kupiansk and Izyum. Both were heavily fought in the first weeks of the war. The Russian army used both to supply its troops in Donbas.
According to the British Ministry of Defence, a Ukrainian breach of Russia’s frontline along the Oskil River would be humiliating for the Kremlin. This Kremlin has made it a priority to capture and defend Luhansk and could threaten its last logistics hub to Donbas from Belgorod.
It stated that the line runs along the border with Luhansk Oblast. This is part of the Donbas which Russia seeks to “liberate” as one of its immediate war goals. Russia’s strategy will be undermined if there is a significant loss of territory in Luhansk.
The statement stated that Russia will likely try to defend the area stubbornly, but it is not clear if Russia’s front-line forces have enough reserves or morale to withstand a concerted Ukrainian attack.
The Oskil River flows south through fertile land in Ukraine, before joining the Seversky Donets River that flows into Donbas. It is located 75 miles east of Kharkiv, and 110 miles northwest of Luhansk, which pro-Russian rebels control since the 2014 uprising against Kyiv’s central government.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based Institute – Study War, confirmed that Ukrainian forces had pushed through Russia’s northeastern frontier. It stated that Russian forces were likely to be too weak to stop further Ukrainian advances along the entire Oskil River.
https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1571106246627065861?s=20
Unsourced footage of a Ukrainian tank was uploaded to Twitter and geolocated at Kupiansk, east bank Oskil River.
It showed the destroyed and smashed-up city. The wrecks of two abandoned Russian tanks can be seen to the left. One of them is painted with the letter Z, which has been a Russian pro-war symbol.
Geolocated to the Oskil River’s east bank, another video shows a Ukrainian soldier celebrating the destruction of a Russian armoured personnel carrier. The soldier in the video says, “All will soon become Ukraine.” Since the Kremlin’s February 24th invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces have suffered huge losses.
According to the Pentagon, the Russian army has suffered at least 75,000 deaths or injuries in fighting in Afghanistan. This is far more than what the Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan over a decade.
Analysts believe that the Russian army’s victory in the Ukrainian offensive was a sign of its exhaustion, a breakdown in its command and control structures, and low morale.
Telegram messages show that Russian soldiers are having difficulty defending themselves against Ukrainian attacks.
One conversation, which was leaked to Telegram and reported by BBC, showed that one Russian officer explained to a friend that he had just lost two more sniper units and that the losses were becoming too much.
According to Telegram, he stated that “you have no idea how tiring is it to say hello and then have to identify his remains later in the day.”
