Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Boku, CapAI, Eurasia, Ferro Alloy, Greenroc, Getech, Intercede, Medpal, Oxford Biomedica, Orosur, Physiomics, Tinybuild.
Markets are sitting in a series of tight ranges, which means the next proper end-of-day breakouts should matter. The bigger indices look cautious, crypto remains relatively firm, gold and crude oil are probing for support, and several smaller shares are beginning to show more constructive chart setups.
The key is not to get carried away inside these micro ranges. A close beyond the relevant moving average, channel line, or resistance level is what turns a possibility into a more credible technical signal.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: A Micro Range Between Key Levels
The FTSE 100 is caught between the floor of its rising channel from late March, around 10,640, and its 50 day moving average near 10,762. For now, this is simply a narrow holding pattern.
An end of day close outside this range should provide the next directional clue. The complication is that there is also a resistance line from late July sitting just below the channel floor.
- Upside requirement: A move through the 50 day line and July resistance is needed before turning bullish again.
- Downside risk: A break below the channel floor could expose 10,400 and then the 200 day moving average near 10,420.
- Current position: The index remains in a very small range, so patience is required.
DAX: Weak RSI Favouring Another Test Lower
The DAX is showing a similarly compressed picture. The relevant range is between the channel floor at around 25,400 and the 50 day moving average around 25,800.
A close above the 50 day average could open the way towards September resistance near 26,200. On the downside, the first notable level is the floor of the July gap just above 25,000, while the worst case would be another test of the 200 day moving average just below 24,800.
The concern is the RSI. It has failed several times below the neutral 50 level, which is normally a less than encouraging sign. Unless the DAX can reclaim its 50 day line, the technical bias remains towards a move back to the 200 day average.
Dow Jones: Half Empty Rather Than Half Full
The Dow has produced a reversal-style session and is not looking particularly convincing. While it remains above the floor of the channel from April, there is still a chance of a recovery towards the 50 day moving average in the 52,600 to 52,800 area.
However, channel support around 51,400 may be the more immediate destination before any meaningful revival. The RSI has recorded failures below 50 and slipped beneath its prior uptrend line. That puts the technical picture firmly in the half-empty camp for now.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: Crypto Remains the Stronger Area
Bitcoin Holds Above the Former Range Top
Bitcoin has enjoyed a decent burst higher and is now consolidating above the former range ceiling at 82,000. That is exactly the sort of behaviour bulls want to see after a breakout.
The larger pattern remains a broadening triangle dating back to February. Its upper boundary is moving towards 95,000 by the end of next month. That may be ambitious for the end of the current month, but as long as Bitcoin remains above 82,000 the structure still looks constructive.
The main downside support is the 50 day moving average around 74,500. At present, the price action looks more like a mid-move consolidation than a major top, particularly after the earlier consolidation phase.
Ethereum Leads the Crypto Charge
Ethereum continues to lead the crypto complex, edging towards 2,900, a level previously considered a target for the end of next month. The top of the current channel is around 2,950, although that level rises each day.
The more ambitious target remains the post-December and post-January resistance area near 3,400 by the end of next month. The crucial breakout level is 2,580. Above that, the chart remains in good shape.
Gold: Support Is Being Tested
Gold is looking rather hesitant. It is struggling to remain above the floor of a rising trend channel from June, and there is now a heavy band of resistance through 4,400.
For those looking to buy dips, the 50 day moving average at around 4,314 is the first area of interest, perhaps extending towards 4,300 or 4,290. A convincing break through 4,400 would improve the picture and could bring the 200 day moving average near 4,542 into play.
For now, though, the market appears to be searching for support. Two RSI failures around the 50 level suggest that the next move may still be lower before gold can mount a proper recovery.
WTI Crude Oil: Another Leg Down Is Possible
Crude oil has fallen back more sharply than many might have expected, not only reaching the former worst case area around $93, but also struggling above its 50 day moving average at $87.47.
A test of that moving average would not be surprising, even if the market subsequently bounces. There is also an unfilled gap down towards just under $84, which currently represents the more negative scenario.
The RSI has moved below the neutral 50 level, supporting the case for another decline towards the $83 area. The better outcome would be for the 50 day average to hold and limit the damage.
Smaller-Cap Shares to Watch
- Boku: A Strong Step Pattern Takes Shape: Boku has been one of the casualties of the year, but the chart is starting to look far more interesting after the July overshoot below 100p. The shares are rising in a step formation: a vertical move, then sideways consolidation, then another vertical move. This is one of the stronger technical setups, particularly because it has been accompanied by a gap higher and a sideways consolidation above a rising 50 day moving average. Key support: Around 122p. Near-term target: Filling the gap towards 140p. Technical strength: Rising 50 day average combined with the step progression.
- CapAI: Breakout Could Target the Open Gaps: CapAI has pushed above recent resistance at 0.35p, which gives the chart a possible turnaround feel. There is a gap to fill towards 0.51p, followed by another gap near 0.67p. A gap does not have to be filled, of course, but the presence of those open spaces gives the shares potential upside reference points. While the breakout level holds, a move into the 0.5p zone is possible. A pullback towards the 50 day average at roughly 0.43p would be the more defensive scenario.
- Eurasia Mining: 2.4p Is the Level to Beat: Eurasia Mining remains a difficult and highly news-sensitive situation. Potential developments surrounding a Russia-Ukraine deal could affect sentiment, although the practical impact on the company remains uncertain. From a chart perspective, the shares are still contained within a falling trend channel. The first level to beat is 2.4p. A sustained move above that could allow a move towards 3p and the 200 day moving average by the end of next month. The essential support is the old July area at 2.07p. Fresh lows would clearly undermine the recovery case.
- Ferro-Alloy Resources: Bullish Divergence After the Collapse: Ferro-Alloy Resources has shown why a collapse can sometimes create an opportunity, provided the chart begins to confirm it. The shares found support around 3.5p and have now pushed through the top of the falling trend channel and the 50 day moving average. The immediate technical objective is the gap at 4.5p, following the move through roughly 3.8p. The RSI is also displaying an uptrend line and bullish divergence, implying that accumulation may have been taking place at the lower levels before the latest spike.
- Greenroc: A Constructive U-Shaped Recovery: Greenroc is looking increasingly exciting from a charting perspective. The shares have formed a U-shaped turnaround and bounced above a rising 50 day moving average. Better still, both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages are rising. An RSI rebound above 50 strengthens the setup. While the shares hold above the recently broken resistance level at 4.3p, the old April resistance around 5.6p looks a reasonable target before the end of next month. There may be room for more eventually, but getting back to that 5.6p area is the first task.
- Getech: A Gap Through Resistance Supports the Upside Case: Getech, also known as GTEC, has found support at the prior target level of 3.9p. The next major objective is old support from 2024 at approximately 6.75p. The gap through resistance is a positive development and suggests the market could reach that higher target by the end of next month, or potentially sooner if momentum continues.
- Intercede: From Bear Trend to Bull Trend?: Intercede is floating above a rising 50 day moving average and has broken recent resistance, with better support now forming around 120p. Above this level, the top of the channel near 147p is the next target, potentially as early as the end of next month. The chart would become even more compelling if the 200 day moving average begins to rise too. For now, holding above the 200 day average suggests the shares may have made the transition from a bear trend to a bull trend.
- MedPal: Holding Well Above the Placing Price: MedPal completed a £5 million fundraise at 5p, and the fact that the shares are trading well above that level is notable in the current market. There is resistance around 6.5p, but a break through that area could keep the shares on course for 10p by the end of next month. The rebound is looking healthy, and staying decisively above the placing price remains an encouraging feature.
- Oxford Biomedica: Holding Above 460p to 470p Matters: Oxford Biomedica has pushed through resistance around 465p. The initial target was the 50 day moving average at 515p, and the shares have already reached 512.5p, which is close enough to show that the setup has worked. The next near-term test is a retest of recent resistance near 532p. In a more speculative upside scenario, any merger and acquisition interest could focus attention on the gap towards 576p. The RSI has moved above 50 for the first time in a couple of months. The main requirement is to hold the day’s low and, more importantly, stay above the 460p to 470p support zone.
- Orosur: The 50 Day Average Is the Deciding Level: Orosur saw a sharp rally followed by an equally sharp decline after its fundraise. The chart has effectively created an island top, with a gap up followed by a gap down. The critical support is the 50 day moving average at 16p, close to the 17p placing price. If that level fails, the shares could retest the September low around 13p.
- Physiomics: A Significant Bounce Above the 200 Day Line: Physiomics is attempting another move higher after bouncing above its 200 day moving average, a development that is technically significant. The shares are also pushing through the 50 day moving average around 0.47p. Above that level, a retest of recent resistance around 0.6p is the first objective. The more ambitious target is the top of the channel near 0.8p, potentially by the end of next month or into November. The key point is simple: the shares need to remain above the 50 day and 200 day moving average area around 0.47p.
- Tinybuild: Fresh Blue-Sky Momentum Above 15p: Tinybuild has delivered one of the cleaner technical moves. The shares have reached the 15p target line, which was an ambitious projection drawn from this time last year. Now that 15p has been achieved, the next target is 20p by the end of next month. That level is derived from a projected 2025 resistance line. In the meantime, it would be preferable for the shares to remain above former resistance at around 14p. The strong, clear candles suggest that there may still be more upside to come.
What to Watch Next
Across the major markets, moving averages and channel boundaries are doing most of the work. The FTSE, DAX and Dow need to resolve their tight ranges, while gold and crude oil are trying to establish a floor.
Crypto remains the stronger major asset class, with Bitcoin holding above 82,000 and Ethereum maintaining its leadership above the 2,580 breakout area. Among the smaller shares, the most constructive charts are those combining rising moving averages, broken resistance, positive RSI action, and visible gap targets.
Technical analysis is most useful when it provides clear levels. If support holds, the upside targets remain in play. If support fails, the bearish alternatives take over quickly.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
