Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude Oil, Ascent, Deltic, Great Western, hVIVO, Kazera, Mendell, Neo, Smarter Web, TPX, Valereum
The market setup has become a little more awkward over the past few sessions, but not decisively bearish. In several major indices, the ideal clean breakout has stalled in consolidation. That is not quite what the bulls would have wanted, yet in most cases, the damage still looks limited as long as key moving averages continue to hold.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
FTSE 100: consolidation, but the broader setup is still intact
The FTSE 100 has drifted into the sort of consolidation phase that was not really on the bullish wish list, including a dip towards the 50-day moving average. Even so, the index is still holding above that line, which comes in around 10,431.
As long as the FTSE stays above the 50-day line, the broader constructive view remains in place. The main upside trigger is still a break through the 10,680 area, which would open the way for a return to the highs of the year and potentially the all-time peak near 10,934.
That may feel like a punchy target right now, but the chart has not actually broken down. Two technical supports still argue in favour of giving the uptrend the benefit of the doubt:
- RSI remains above the neutral 50 level
- The market is still above the floor of the rising trend channel from October, around 10,375
For anyone looking for a buying opportunity rather than chasing strength, the first area of interest remains a dip back towards the 50-day moving average.
DAX: gap fills done, now can the recovery resume?
The DAX had been in better shape, although it too has softened. The market has now filled a second gap lower, taking it down towards the 24,600 zone.
That leaves the index vulnerable to a further test of the 50-day moving average at 23,960 if sellers push a bit harder. However, the larger picture is not especially negative while momentum remains constructive. The RSI is still comfortably above 50, sitting around 56, which suggests there is still scope for a recovery phase rather than a full trend reversal.
The preferred outcome remains a retest of the best levels of 2025 by the end of next month as a best-case target.
On the downside, if the market were to slip below the falling 50-day line, the next obvious support area would be the gap at 23,400.
Dow Jones: a nasty reversal, but the 50-day line may still be enough
The Dow has had less help from the geopolitical backdrop, with Trump-related headlines and wider market nerves feeding into a key reversal lower. The index failed near late-February resistance around 49,900, which had already looked like a difficult ceiling.
That failure leaves the market at risk of testing the 50-day moving average near 47,900. For now, that is still seen as the likely worst-case scenario rather than the start of something more sinister.
If the Dow can stabilise there, the larger recovery structure could remain alive. In that case, a push through 50,000 could still lead to a move towards 52,000 by the end of next month.
So the short version is this:
- Near-term tone: weaker after the reversal
- Key support: 47,900 at the 50-day moving average
- Recovery trigger: a break above 50,000
- Upside target if recovered: 52,000
Bitcoin: this breakout attempt looks more convincing
Bitcoin is one of the more interesting charts on the board at the moment because the market is finally delivering the upside move that had been hoped for. The price action is pressing higher within a rising trend channel from February, and the top of that channel comes in around 79,000.
If Bitcoin can clear that area, the next target would be the 200-day moving average near 85,000.
What makes the current setup especially important is the historical comparison. The market has looked similar before, notably at the end of January and in early October, when Bitcoin rallied into a corrective rising or recovery channel only to roll over again. This time, though, the structure looks better.
The key level underneath is 74,000, which marks recent support. While Bitcoin holds above there, the more optimistic interpretation remains valid. Lose that support, and the risk swings back to a retreat towards the floor of the broader channel around 67,000.
For now, this is one of those moments where the market appears to be saying that history may not repeat itself.
Ethereum: lagging Bitcoin, but improving
Ethereum continues to trail Bitcoin, but the chart is beginning to look healthier. Price is moving within a recovery channel that points towards an initial target of 2,460.
The more important point is that this recovery is shaping up better than the rebound seen between November and January, if only because this one has lasted longer and is beginning to look more sustainable.
As long as support holds, the market can continue to work higher. In a weaker scenario, the 50-day moving average becomes the obvious fallback level. The RSI is also beginning to support the improving trend, which adds weight to the bullish case.
Gold: still range-bound and waiting for a proper signal
Gold remains stuck in a range, with support around 4,600 and the 50-day moving average near 4,884. That means the chart has not yet delivered the clean confirmation needed for the next leg higher.
What is needed here is an end-of-day close not only above the top of the trend channel from January, but also above the 50-day line. If that happens, the next target opens up towards early March resistance at 5,200.
There is still some risk of another shakeout before that. In a worst-case near-term scenario, gold may need to test below 4,540. The positive feature is that the lows are getting progressively higher, which keeps the medium-term structure constructive even if the metal is not yet ready to break free.
WTI crude oil: still the market of the moment
Crude oil remains the standout chart right now. The working range is still roughly 85 to 95 dollars, with the 50-day moving average sitting around 85. That range remains the central expectation for the time being.
If oil breaks below 85, then the market could rotate into a lower trading band of roughly 75 to 85 dollars. That sort of downside would probably require a proper geopolitical settlement, and at the moment that does not look especially likely.
On the chart itself, there is a clear line of resistance building over the last couple of weeks, creating a triangle-type formation. To reignite the bullish trend properly, oil needs to break through the 92 to 93 dollar zone. That would put 100 plus back into play.
Until then, the triangle and the moving average are doing most of the technical heavy lifting.
Small-cap stock charts to watch
Ascent Resources: quietly climbing: Ascent Resources has been moving higher by stealth. The story has been constructive since the low 40s, and the market has already hit the initial upside objective just above 0.7p. From here, the next target is 0.9p plus by the end of next month, with the recent support area around 0.55p ideally holding.
Deltic Energy: early bird setup after bear traps: Deltic looks interesting as an early-stage opportunity. The chart has produced what appears to be a pair of two-day bear traps, and there has also been a gap-close price signal. Above the 2.9p area, the shares look capable of heading towards the 200-day moving average around 3.5p initially. Best case by the end of next month is a move towards the 5p to 5.6p area.
Great Western Mining: comparisons with Guardian Metal: There is growing chatter that Great Western Mining could be the next Guardian Metal. The comparison is easy enough to understand, with both companies connected to the same broader geographic and thematic space in Nevada. Technically, the target is the upper parallel of the rising trend channel from December, which points as high as 4p by the end of next month. The bullish case remains valid while the shares stay on the right side of 3p.
hVIVO: first target reached, more to come?: There was a positive announcement from hVIVO, and the chart has responded well. The shares have already hit an initial target at around 10.5p, corresponding with the top of a rising trend channel. If the stock can close above that 10.5p level, the next target becomes 15p by the end of next month. Recent support is around 8.75p, and that is the level bulls will want to see hold.
Kazera: another attempt at a breakout: Kazera has been covered a few times lately, and the shares are once again trying to clear the falling trend channel around 1.1p. A successful breakout would open the way towards the top of the triangle pattern at 1.66p by the end of next month. The encouraging sign here is the RSI, which has pushed above 50 in recent sessions and is backing up the improving price action.
Mendell Helium: strength continues above the first target: Helium remains one of the hottest commodity themes around, and Mendell has already reached its first target at 6p. Above 6p, the next target is 9.5p by the end of next month. The RSI has stayed above neutral 50 continuously since the beginning of last month, which is exactly what you want to see in a stock trying to sustain momentum rather than just produce a one-day spike.
Neo Energy: the early call has worked well: Neo Energy was highlighted earlier in the month below 0.6p, and the subsequent move has validated that bullish setup. The shares peaked around 1.05p, and the important technical point now is that they hold above the top of the old falling trend channel at 0.95p. As long as that former resistance acts as support, the chart points to 1.3p by the end of next month. The setup was supported by bullish divergence in the RSI window, and that momentum signal has played out neatly.
Smarter Web: Bitcoin exposure helping the chart: Smarter Web appears to be benefiting from being one of the bigger names among the Bitcoin treasury-style plays. The stock has broken out of a falling trend channel around 34p to 35p, and that break improves the near-term outlook materially. The next target is the top of a broad triangle from January, which points to as high as 47p by next month.
TPX: trend channel still points higher: TPX has been mentioned a few times already, and the chart remains constructive. The rising trend channel suggests a minimum upside target around 51p, potentially by the end of this month, while the shares remain above the floor of the gap at 37p. For the more ambitious case, the upper parallel of that rising channel points towards 70p plus by the end of next month. In other words, there is still room for both a steady move and, if momentum kicks in, something more dramatic.
Valereum: speculative setup with gaps above: Valereum remains a speculative chart and one that has disappointed before when apparent recovery setups failed to follow through. Main support sits around 2p, and it may yet need to revisit that level. Even so, there are a couple of unfilled gaps to the upside, and that will naturally catch the eye of traders looking for a squeeze. Those gaps imply the possibility of a move towards the top of the falling wedge or triangle over the next couple of weeks, provided the shares can remain above the latest support around 3.4p.
Final thoughts
The broad message across the charts is that markets are wobbling rather than collapsing. The FTSE 100, DAX and Dow are all being tested, but most still have enough technical support in place to avoid a bearish verdict for now.
Crypto is looking more encouraging, particularly Bitcoin, where the current breakout attempt appears stronger than previous false starts. Gold still needs a proper close above resistance before it can be trusted. Crude oil remains highly sensitive and technically important in the 85 to 95 dollar zone.
For now, it is a market that rewards patience and respect for levels. A lot of these charts are close to moving decisively. The key is knowing which lines really matter when they do.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
