Copper hits new high as US looks likely to update shortly on the new copper tariff
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
American Tungsten & Antimony (AT4 AU) – Ramp-up and expansion planning begins at Del Sol Refinery and White Spar antimony mine
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – Permit approvals clear the way to restart mining at Andacollo, Chile
Minsur (MINSURI1 PE) – Q2 output steady as spending on mine life rises
Pensana (PRE LN) – $165m Cascade investment update
Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Exploration results from Reese Ridge, Nevada
Thor Explorations(THX LN) – Drilling continues to intersect mineralisation beneath the Segilola pit, Nigeria
Trekor Metals (TKOT LN) – Earnings surge on record copper prices and stronger volumes
Copper ($14,060/t ) – Trump or The US Department of Commerce likely to update shortly on the new copper tariff
- Investors wouldn’t pay such premiums for physical copper unless they felt very sure some form of tariff or import restriction was coming.
- China now looks to be very low on physical copper stock despite its huge investment in copper smelting.
- Trump to attend US State Department roundtable event with leading mining executives to secure critical minerals for the energy, defense and technology sectors.
Gold ($4,254/oz) rises as US and Iran near deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz
- News reports indicate the US, Iran and Oman are close to a deal to reopen the Strait, which would ease oil-driven inflation.
- Traders now see a 54.8% chance of a September Fed rate rise, down from 64% mom.
- Gold rose 1.8% to $4,254/oz as US dollar and Treasury yields fell.
China gold demand edges higher as bars offset jewellery drop (China Gold Association)
- China consumed 511.41t of gold in 1H, up 1.23% year on year.
- Bar and coin buying jumped 28.42% to 339.34t, while jewellery fell 33.88% on high prices.
- Mine output fell 14.62% to 152.91t after inspections stopped work at some mines.
- The PBoC (China’s central bank) added 40.12t, a 20th straight month of buying as it moves reserves away from the US dollar.
Nickel ($16,605/t) falls as Indonesian government looks set to allow more mining
- Nickel fell 2.1% to $16,605/t, the lowest since mid-July.
- A major Indonesian mine is reported set for an extra ore quota of tens of millions of tons (SMM).
- The report surprised as the government had denied a broad quota rise, saying extras would be reviewed case by case.
Lithium – Albemarle (ALB US) says lithium demand is growing faster than supply
- Albemarle reports lithium use rose 45% in the first five months of 2026, near the top of its 15-40% growth forecast.
- Its 2026 forecast for grid and data center storage batteries rose 11%.
- Q2 net income jumped to $480m from $22.9m, with storage earnings more than tripled on higher prices (Mining.com).
Super El Nino in 2027 likely to lead to greater flooding in China and SE Asia
- Weather forecasters reckon 2026 is an extremely destructive prelude and next year might be worse (SCMP)
Massive typhoon due to ravage China just south of Shanghai this week
- The storm follows severe flooding in the northwest which killed 25
Europe – heatwave causing river-cooled nuclear reactors to reduce capacity
- Romania blew up a rock in the Danube to help redirect cooling water to the nation’s last operating nuclear reactor
- Other nukes have suspended power production in Hungary and Romania due to the drought.
- This combined with higher power usage for air-conditioning may increase coal use in thermal coal power stations.
- Parts of the Danube are unnavigable with the Slovak-Hungarian stretch near Budapest and Bratislava and downstream toward Bulgaria and Romania now too shallow for heavy load cargo and large passenger vessels.
Chile recovering from strong storms, flooding, landslides, avalanches
- Up to three meters of snow fell in the Atacama and Coquimbo mountain areas with ~100,000 people isolated during the storms.
- 20-40mm was recorded in Copiapó with 90-130mm to the south in Huasco and Vallenar sectors.
- Storms hit the hyper-arid core of the Atacama Desert but say 15mm is allot less than the annual solar evaporation rate of ~3,200-3,500mm/y
- The storms caused only temporary logistical issues washing out roads and bringing down power lines.
- Salt flat evaporation ponds managed the additional rainfall with minimal impact on brine levels so we don’t expect any material impact on output from SQM / Albemarle.
Zambia – Drought seen cutting a third to a half of hydropower capacity to 1,019-1,635 MW vs national demand of 2,400 MW
- Zambia saw Floods in January and February but this was less severe in the Copperbelt than in 1015
- Unfortunately, the nation is now suffering a drought which is tough for farmers and miners with hydropower generation falling
- Total installed capacity 4,576MW including a new 750MW from the Kafue Gorge Lower Hydropower Station which helps to stabilize the grid.
- A further 163 MW will come from the new Lufubu Hydropower Cascade + Solar power has risen to ~841 MW this year from 88 MW in 2021 and should rise to 1,000 MW.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.49% | at | 54,349 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.93% | at | 65,683 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -1.88% | at | 25,429 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.43% | at | 3,895 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +0.8 | at | 4.62 |
Currencies
US$1.1545/eur vs 1.1545/eur previous. Yen 157.82/$ vs 157.66/$. SAr 16.337/$ vs 16.344/$. $1.346/gbp vs $1.347/gbp. 0.704/aud vs 0.705/aud.
CNY 6.750/$ vs 6.749/$. Dollar Index 99.76 vs 99.78 previous.
Economics
Iran reports it has reached an agreement with Oman on Hormuz shipping route.
- Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Tehran and Muscat had agreed on the geographical coordinates of a navigable channel.
- A joint statement on provisional arrangement was “in final stages”.
- Tehran reinstated that it would not accept “foreign interference” in the waterway.
- If implemented, the new route for shipping could be used for two to four months.
DRC – Ebola epidemic threatens tin, tantalum and tungsten production and exports
- If the epidemic spreads further this could start to impact copper and cobalt production and exports
Ghana central bank lost $1.9bn buying gold in 2025 (IMF, Bloomberg)
- The Bank of Ghana lost 22bn cedis ($1.9bn) on fees, gold testing charges and trading margins in its gold buying program.
Australia – Gold rises to Australia’s second-largest export next to Iron ore (Bloomberg, ABS)
- June shipments jumped to A$7.13bn ($5bn), overtaking coal and close to February’s record.
- Central bank and other long-term buying is seen as key support.
Myanmar / Thailand – REE and gold mining developing environmental catastrophe
- Unregulated gold and rare earth mines from >2,000 mines in Shan state, eastern Myanmar polluting rivers in Thailand
- Most of these mines are reportedly set up by Chinese companies due to restrictions in China
- https://www.asiafinancial.com/shan-mines-an-environmental-catastrophe-for-thailand-se-asia
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,254/oz vs US$4,177/oz previous
Gold ETFs 96.8moz vs 96.7moz previous
Platinum US$1,750/oz vs US$1,783/oz previous
Palladium US$1,372/oz vs US$1,390/oz previous
Silver US$61.6/oz vs US$61.8/oz previous
Silver ETFs 787.6moz vs 787.7moz previous
Rhodium US$8,525/oz vs US$8,375/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,060/t vs US$14,059/t previous
Aluminium US$3,235/t vs US$3,227/t previous
Nickel US$16,605/t vs US$17,095/t previous
Zinc US$3,729/t vs US$3,699/t previous
Lead US$1,882/t vs US$1,902/t previous
Tin US$56,045/t vs US$56,325/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$79.8/bbl vs US$79.2/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices remain around $80/bbl as news that Iran has reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was balanced against Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.
- The EIA estimated w/w US inventory build of 2.5mb to crude offset by draws of 2.8mb to the SPR, 1.6mb to gasoline and 3.5mb to distillate stocks, with refinery utilisation down 0.7% w/w to 96.5% on 13.8mb/d of domestic supply.
Natural Gas €53.5/MWh vs €55.6/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $86.3/lb vs $86.2/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.3/t vs US$94.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.0/t vs US$466.5/t
HCC FOB Australia US$215.0/t vs US$212.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$130.3/t vs US$131.8/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$109,490/t vs US$110,459/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$20,224/t vs US$20,225/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,185/t vs US$2,185/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,745/mtu vs US$1,745/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$3,125/mtu vs US$3,125/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vs US$225/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vs US$390/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.4/kg vs US$26.4/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$208/t vs US$208/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,789/t vs US$2,789/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,163/t vs US$1,163/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$395.0/t vs US$395.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,095.0/kg vs US$4,095.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$430.0/kg vs US$430.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.0/lb vs US$33.0/lb
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 0.4% | 6.2% | Freeport-McMoRan | 3.1% | 15.7% |
| Rio Tinto | 0.0% | 4.7% | Vale | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| Glencore | 4.1% | 10.1% | Newmont Mining | 6.7% | 14.2% |
| Anglo American | 2.9% | 11.6% | Fortescue | 1.4% | -2.2% |
| Antofagasta | 3.0% | 14.1% | Teck Resources | 1.7% | 11.8% |
American Tungsten & Antimony (AT4 AU) A$0.05, Mkt Cap A$94.6m (around £46m) – Ramp-up and expansion planning begins at Del Sol Refinery and White Spar antimony mine
- US antimony and tungsten developer AT4 gives an update on the Del Sol Refinery, Nevada and White Spar mine, Arizona.
- Both sit under an acquisition announced 28 July 2026 which has not completed, with all work depending on it.
- Restart:
- The antimony plant is set to restart in September using White Spar ore.
- Product samples will go to possible customers for testing and approval.
- Expansion:
- Del Sol is permitted for 18,500 short tons of feed per year, with room for more equipment.
- Engineering proposals requested for a bigger plant and new products, including ammonium paratungstate (APT), a refined tungsten product.
- No study done and no cost estimates prepared.
- Funding and permitting:
- Operating results from the restart are expected to support US Government funding applications, with none awarded or promised.
- The Company met Nevada regulators before applying to lift permitted capacity from 18,500 to around 100,000 short tons per year.
- These are permit limits, not production targets.
- White Spar:
- Historically mined for antimony and silver, with no Mineral Resource estimated.
- A bulk sample is planned through the Del Sol plant, subject to approvals.
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 26p, Mkt Cap £187m – Permit approvals clear the way to restart mining at Andacollo, Chile
Initiation Note 21/07/26 – BUY – 89p CLICK HERE
Andacollo: heap leach gold restart with pathway to 130kozpa
- In what Senior Vice-President, Operations, Robert Sedgemore described as “a major milestone” for the project, Galantas Gold reports receipt of approvals clearing the way for a resumption of production at its Andacollo project in Chile
- “The authorized operating period extends for four years from the commencement of mineral extraction … under the previously approved mine design, waste-disposal configuration, heap-leach facilities, operating parameters and safety conditions”.
- The Tres Perlas open-pit hosts around 11.3mt under the approved mine plan and the company explains that “approved waste-rock facilities retain approximately 17.7 Mt of capacity, representing approximately 53% of total authorized capacity”.
- Galantas Gold confirms that it has purchased a three-stage crushing circuit and that the approvals apply to “permitted … [for] … crushing … [of] … up to 15,000 tonnes per day”.
- The company also explains that it “expects to apply in advance for the extensions or modifications required to support continued operations beyond the current authorized period as well as a Phase II operational expansion to 40,000 tpd … [subject to] … completion of the applicable technical and environmental studies and receipt of new or modified permits”.
Conclusion: Permit approvals validating the mine design and operating plan at Andacollo clear an obstacle to a production restart expected to deliver ~130koz pa of gold output.
*SP Angel act as Broker to Galantas Gold
Minsur (MINSURI1 PE) PEN7.20, Mkt Cap PEN6.9bn (around £1.5bn) – Q2 output steady as spending on mine life rises
- Minsur, the second-largest refined tin producer, reports Q2 output of 7,000t, down 0.5% yoy (ITA).
- Cash costs rose 9.5% to $10,500/t, with spending up 49% on a new tailings dam and longer mine life.
- Tin sales rose 75% to $400.9m and gross profit more than doubled.
Pensana (PRE LN) 75p, Mkt Cap £228m – $165m Cascade investment update
- The Company updates on the status of the US$165m Cascade Natural Resources investment.
- The team received US$15m to date with the balance US$150m remaining outstanding.
- The fund led by Lloyd Pengilly is reported to be in contact with its backers, the State of Qatar, with completion of the second tranche due shortly.
- Delay is attributed to “growing strategic importance that the State of Qatar places on the critical minerals sector and an increase in the scope of the propose investment from the original mine development funding of US$165 million to now include further funding for the mine to magnet downstream strategy and the NASDAQ listing”.
- The Company reports that the delay will impact the Longonjo Rare Earth Project (Angola) development schedule.
- CEO Tim George is meeting Qatari investors in Doha and will be traveling to Washington to participate in a Presidential critical minerals round table later this week.
- The first tranche relates to a 3.8% interest in the Company (~14m at 80p).
- The remaining balance is for a 38.2% interest in Sable Min, a majority shareholder in Ozango Minerais, the developer of the project.
- Pensana currently holds 100% in Sable Min that in turn owns a 84% stake in Ozango (or 68.4% once Angola Sovereign Wealth Fund, FSDEA, US$25m subsidiary level investment is confirmed taking its stake to ~25% with two Angolan partners holding the remaining 6%).
Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) 0.02p Mkt Cap £1.3m – Exploration results from Reese Ridge, Nevada
- Sunrise Resources reports that mapping, sampling and structural geological work at its Reese Ridge zinc/lead/silver project in Nevada provided data for 3D modelling aimed at identifying drill targets.
- The company reports “Narrow vein samples grading up to 9.9% zinc, greater than 20% lead and 192g/t silver … [have been recovered] … from the Ridge Top Prospect”.
- “Mineralisation … [has been] … confirmed in both the hanging wall and footwall surrounding the high-grade veins, demonstrating encouraging widths of economically significant mineralisation” including:
- A “0.6m chip sample … [from the hanging-wall mineralisation] … grading 4.8% zinc, 0.4% lead and 10g/t silver”; and
- A “3.3m chip sample… [from the foot-wall mineralisation] … grading 5.8% zinc, 1.0% lead and 17g/t silver”.
- Executive Chairman, Patrick Cheetham, said that the “integration of recent mapping with historical geophysical data into a new three-dimensional structural model … [which] … will enable us to prioritise drill targets with greater confidence”.
- He elaborated that “Our objective, is not only to drill test the down-dip continuity of the high-grade surface mineralisation but also the large conductive geophysical anomaly at depth, which we believe could represent a large sulphide system”.
Thor Explorations(THX LN) 54.5p, Mkt Cap £372m – Drilling continues to intersect mineralisation beneath the Segilola pit, Nigeria
- Thor Explorations reports that drilling beneath its Segilola open pit in Nigeria has continued to intersect mineralisation which remains open down-plunge at depth towards the south.
- Among the results highlighted in the announcement are:
- A 19.4m wide intersection at an average grade of 3.01g/t gold from a depth of 346m in hole SNMDD-089; and
- 5.3m averaging 5.66g/t gold from 300m in hole SNMDD-166; and
- A 3.4m wide intersection at an average grade of 7.58g/t gold from a depth of 289m in hole SNMDD-170; and
- 2m averaging 9.27g/t gold from 420m in hole SNMDD-171; and
- A 1.2m wide intersection at an average grade of 11.31g/t gold from a depth of 288m in hole SNMDD-178; and
- 2.1m averaging 3.02g/t gold from 296.9m depth in hole SNMDD-179 which also intersected 3.3m at an average grade of 5.99g/t from 307.7m and 5.5m grading 2.28g/t from 312m.
- Drilling focused on two main areas including:
- The Northern Zone, where drilling delineated a steeply dipping, south plunging shoot in a previously untested area that now extends 400m below the pit and remains open (SNMDD089)
- The Southern Zone that hosts a more continuous, shallow-plunging footwall structure (3–5m true widths, ~800m strike) being drilled to define continuity; significant intersections from the current drilling include 1.6m grading 3.73g/t Au in drillhole SNMDD090
- Drilling is ongoing with four rigs on site as the team is considering an underground mining development decision extending Segilola LOM.
- The current programme aims both to upgrade the Inferred resource below the put and increase the overall resource.
- Existing 2018 PEA underground resource is 28koz indicated at 9.4g/t Au and 90koz inferred at 7.9g/t Au, a share of which has since been included in the open pit domain.
- MRE update due by the end of 2026.
- President & CEO, Segun Lawson said that the drilling shows “the continuation of high-grade mineralisation beneath the Segilola pit and continue to contribute new ounces to Segilola’ s gold inventory well below the current pit design”.
- He also commented that “We are also encouraged that our drilling continues to delineate a high grade steeply dipping shoot in a previously untested area which currently extends to 400m beneath the pit and remains open”.
- Mr. Lawson explained that the drilling “will continue through the course of the year as we work towards making an underground mining development decision … [and will improve] … our growing understanding of the structural controls of the mineralisation, which has been a challenging aspect of this drilling program”.
- The company confirms that “the current program will both upgrade the inferred resource below the pit and increase the size the overall of the resource, with the objective of increasing the life of mine at Segilola … [and that it expects to deliver] … an updated resource by the end of 2026”.
Conclusion: Drilling beneath the pit continues to intersect ‘open’ mineralisation at depth and is expected to contribute to an updated resource for Segilola later this year as the company moves towards a decision on a possible transition into underground mining
Trekor Metals (TKOT LN) 580p, Mkt Cap £2.2bn – Earnings surge on record copper prices and stronger volumes
- The Company reports 1Q26 and 1H26 financial results for its copper operations in Canada and the US.
- 1H26 results include:
- Revenues C$568m (1H25: C$255m)
- Adjusted EBITDA C$219m (1H25: C$52m)
- PAT C$39m (1H25: -C$7m)
- EPS C$0.19 (1H25: -C$0.06)
- Cash Flow from Operations C$277m (1H25: C$82m)
- Copper collars matured for 27mlbs in 2Q26 with a ceiling price of US$5.40/lb resulting in a C$24m loss.
- 3Q26 ceiling price is now US$7.50/lb and US$8.50/lb.
- The Company decided to not use any ceiling prices (ie selling calls to reduce the cost of puts) moving forward.
- Gibraltar Copper Mine, located in BC, Canada:
- 2Q26 Production 30.3mlbs in 2Q26, in line with management expectations
- Copper head grades averaged 0.25% and recoveries averaged 82%
- Sales 32.0mlbs
- C1 Unit Costs C$2.41/lb
- Florence Copper, an situ leaching operation in Arizona, continued to ramp up.
- 2Q26 Production 5.2mlbs, up on 1.5mlb in the previous quarter
- C1 Unit Costs C$4.72/lb
- Wellfield drilling restarted in late 2025 with five rigs operating on stie.
- The first new production wells were brought online in early July with a total 26 wells expected to come online in August
- 110 production wells were in operation as of quarter end feeding ~3,400 gallons per minute at 1.8g/L.
- Sales 5.3mlbs in copper cathodes.
- The mine has a 85mlbs per annum capacity and a 22y LOM.
- Fixed sulfuric acid supply agreement for 2026in place with no near-term cost impact expected.
- FY26 guidance reiterated:
- Gibraltar 110-115mlbs
- Florence 30-35mlbs
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
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Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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