Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude Oil, ACG, capAI, Cloudbreak, Clean Power, Crism, Delta Gold, DeFi, ITM, Incanthera, Iconic Labs, Intercede, Quantum Data, THG, Time To ACT.
The broader market picture is still constructive, even if a few instruments are pausing rather than sprinting. Across the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold and crude oil, the key theme is the same: plenty of charts are trying to build from recent bear traps, gap reversals and consolidations above rising moving averages.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: still looking like a mid-move consolidation
The FTSE 100 appears to be in a mid-move consolidation above a rising 50-day moving average, and that is normally the sort of setup that hints at a fresh leg higher.
The rebound from the bear trap at the end of last month still matters. As long as that structure holds, the market looks capable of pushing on. The first important hurdle is recent resistance at 10,687 on an end-of-day close basis.
If that gives way, the next targets are:
- 10,934.9, the late-February all-time record high
- 11,220, the top of the rising channel
The channel top could come into view by the end of next month, though that may prove more of a summer target than something achieved in a hurry during May.
On the downside, the ideal is simple: stay above the 50-day line at 10,430. For now, dips towards 10,500 still look like intraday buying opportunities for the bulls.
DAX: finally moving around after months of range trading
The DAX has actually been making better progress than the FTSE. That is encouraging, especially after spending much of the past year stuck in a broad range between 23,000 and 25,000.
Now there is a bit more life in the market, and the technical picture is improving. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are close together, both appear to be rising, and there is even the possibility of a golden cross developing. That would certainly brighten the mood.
The recent action also has the hallmarks of a bear trap island reversal, with multiple gaps down followed by multiple gaps up.
While the DAX remains above 24,200, which was initial April resistance, the path looks open for a move to fill the gap towards 25,200, the top of the late-February gap down. That is a reasonable near-term target into month end.
Dow Jones: pushing back towards the highs
The Dow looks as though it is on its way back towards the highs. February resistance at around 50,500 is now the key reference point, and if that area is properly cleared, the next move could extend significantly.
The best-case scenario from here is a time projection towards 52,000 by the end of next month.
On the downside, recent broken resistance and the gap floor around 48,700 should ideally hold. The bigger support reference remains the 50-day moving average at 47,952. As long as the Dow stays above those levels, the market remains pointed towards further upside.
Bitcoin: better than the doubters are suggesting
Bitcoin is looking rather better than some of the more dramatic calls on social media would have you believe.
There were obvious sell points in October, January and again last week. What stands out now, though, is that in the last few days the price has not fallen away to the 50-day moving average. Instead, it has been trying to bounce.
That does not remove the risk of failure at the top of the rising February trend channel near 79,000. A rejection there could still send Bitcoin back lower. But for the moment, the chart suggests an attempt to hold above the 50-day line and push towards that channel top.
The upside framework is:
- 79,000 as the immediate channel target
- 86,000 near the 200-day moving average on a stronger breakout
The main bearish alternative would be a retreat towards the channel floor at 67,000. Right now, however, the chart leans towards a reasonable recovery rather than a fresh collapse.
Ethereum: still near the top of a falling channel
Ethereum is not yet as strong-looking as Bitcoin, but it has also avoided the sort of immediate failure that would have made the chart look much worse.
The market is sitting near the top of a falling trend channel around 2,420. While it remains below that level, there is still scope for a test of the 50-day moving average at 2,149.
Even so, the same point applies here as with Bitcoin: if the market was going to fail badly, it probably would have done so last week. Instead, it has held together.
That leaves the more positive scenario in place. While Ethereum stays above the rising 50-day line at 2,149, a move towards 2,834 by the end of next month remains a credible target.
Gold: trying to reclaim the 50-day line
Gold has been trying to recover back above its 50-day moving average. It came close at the end of last week, but has not quite sealed the deal yet.
The key level is an end-of-day close above the 50-day line at 4,890. If that happens, then the next notable upside reference is resistance from the last March peak at 5,250.
Support is beginning to edge higher, and for now it looks as though buyers should come in around 4,600 or above. Any dips towards that area are likely to be treated as buying opportunities.
The RSI is sitting around neutral, just above 50, so momentum is not especially strong, but it is not rolling over either. For now, the glass is still just about half full.
Crude oil: trapped in a channel and waiting for the next trigger
Crude oil is trading within a rising trend channel, but it is not offering a particularly dramatic setup just yet. It is essentially moving between the 50-day moving average and resistance roughly 10 dollars above it.
The rough working range is:
- 85.39 around the 50-day line
- 95 to 95.95 on the upside
This is one of those markets where geopolitical developments are likely to matter as much as the chart pattern. For now, the channel remains the guide.
Stock focus
ACG Metals: still one of the stronger resource charts: ACG Metals, with its gold and copper mix, remains one of the better-looking names in the space. The shares are in a rising trend channel with support based around 1,530. While the price stays above that level, the first objective is a retest of the late-January record high at 1,790. That could happen by the end of next month, possibly sooner. On a two to three month view, the top of the channel points as high as 2,180, which feels more like a summer target. If there is a rug pull, the hope is that the downside is limited to the 50-day moving average at 1,434. Importantly, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are now rising, and that is often the sweet spot in a bull run.
Cloudbreak: trying to base after the earlier surge: Cloudbreak has been trying to establish where the floor of its channel sits. That floor looks to be around 0.37p on the rising trend channel from October. An end-of-day close through the 200-day moving average at 0.59p would improve the picture significantly. If that happens, the shares could head as high as 1p by the end of June. For now, this still looks like a stock absorbing the after-effects of the sharp rally seen into the autumn.
Clean Power: target exceeded, next level comes into view: Clean Power has moved broadly as hoped. The original objective was around 7.6p at the top of the falling trend channel, and the shares managed to overshoot that quite comfortably. The next upside level now comes in around 13.3p to 13.4p. Ideally that target is reached by the end of the month, or even sooner, especially if the shares can remain firmly above 10p.
CRISM’ Therapeutics: messy chart, but the gap reversal helps: Crism is not the cleanest chart of the bunch, but there are still some encouraging signs. There is a price channel floor in place, and the range highs sit towards 19p. The key short-term requirement is an end-of-day close above the 50-day moving average and above 13p. The recent action includes what looks like a double bear trap, with two gaps lower followed by a reversal setup. If the breakout comes, the shares could move towards the top of the range at 18p plus by the end of next month.
Delta Gold: still one of the charts of the year: This remains one of the stocks of the year. The technical roadmap has worked rather well so far. First came the break above the old March resistance at 69.12p, which opened the way to 85p. After that target was met, attention shifted to 125p. The shares nearly got there, reaching 124p, which is close enough for most mortals. After such a steep run, support is now likely to come in around 100p to 105p. The move has been beautifully parabolic, and one of the giveaways along the way was how consistently the price found support above a rising 50-day moving average.
DeFi: a surprisingly strong bounce at channel support: DeFi is looking better than many might have expected. The shares are bouncing from, and in fact above, the floor of a rising trend channel at around 32p. While that level holds, the initial target is a retest of March resistance at around 61p by the end of next month. On a broader two to three month view, the top of the channel points towards £1. The chart is also supported by bullish divergence on the RSI, which adds to the constructive tone.
ITM: mid-move consolidation after the big catalyst: ITM has understandably attracted attention after its NATO and government-related deal flow. Technically, this now looks like a mid-move consolidation rather than a spent rally. The trigger level is an end-of-day close above 145p. Only once that is achieved does the more ambitious upside target come into play, and that points towards 195p by the end of next month. On the downside, the shares ideally stay above 130p on a closing basis.
Incanthera: deeply oversold and starting to stir: Incanthera has been waiting for meaningful news around its lead product, and the commercial update for Skin + Cell at the end of last month may have been the first step in reviving interest. The chart is certainly oversold. From here, an initial target of 2p looks possible in the near term, especially if a fresh announcement provides the spark.
Iconic Labs: highly speculative, but 200-day resistance is the key: Iconic Labs remains a very ragged chart and is firmly in the highly speculative category. The only clear technical line in the sand at the moment is the 200-day moving average at 2.3p. An end-of-day close above that could open up a move towards the 5p area. Beyond that, caution is essential. This is not the sort of setup for the faint-hearted.
Intercede Group: classic bear trap island reversal: Intercede Group offers one of the more attractive reversal patterns on the board. The shares gapped down to new lows and then gapped back up, creating a textbook bear trap island reversal. The immediate trigger is an end-of-day close above the 50-day moving average at 96p. If that happens, the first upside target is the top of the falling trend channel at around 113p by the end of next month. Best case, if the move really gets going, is a push towards the 200-day moving average at 136p. The latest gap floor at 88p should ideally hold on a closing basis, especially after the recent RSI rebound through the 50 area.
Quantum Data: one of the hottest charts right now: Quantum Data looks extremely lively. The shares have already sailed through the earlier 3p target, and now the upper parallel of the broadening triangle points as high as 6p by the end of next month. The chart also has the feel of a bear trap island reversal, which adds to the bullish case. Ideally, the shares stay above yesterday’s high and the gap floor at 3.75p. That area may also be the obvious place for anyone waiting for a pullback.
THG: 45p remains the minimum target: THG moved rather quickly into the 45p target zone, and that level still looks like the minimum upside objective while the chart structure holds together. The key support is the gap floor at 39p. As long as the shares stay above there, the bullish case remains intact. Another positive feature is that both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising, which tends to reinforce the trend rather than undermine it.
Time To Act: one of the more interesting Aquas setups: Time To Act is looking surprisingly good. The price action has taken on a step-fashion rise above a rising 50-day moving average, and the candles have been opening at the low and closing at the high for three straight sessions. The target from here is 13p at the top of the falling trend channel by the end of the month, or potentially even sooner. An end-of-day close through the December peak at 10p could be quite explosive. Beyond that, there is not much obvious resistance until 20p, apart from the 200-day moving average.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
