Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Andrada, Aptitude, Ethernity, Jersey, Medpal, Nativo, Oxford Biomedica, and Time To Act.
The major indices are sitting in tight ranges, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are testing whether former resistance can hold as support. Among individual shares, several breakouts remain promising, but the levels that keep those setups intact matter as much as the upside targets.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Major indices: Waiting for a decisive move
FTSE 100: A narrow range cannot last forever
The FTSE 100 remains caught between the floor of its rising channel from March, around 10,670, and the 50-day moving average near 10,770. Resistance from July sits around 10,800. Until that level breaks, the practical approach is to treat strength as an opportunity to sell into the range and the channel floor as a potential buying area.
That leaves a trading band of roughly 130 points, which looks too narrow to persist indefinitely. If the index slips below the channel, 10,600 or perhaps 10,550 looks like a reasonable initial downside area. A much sharper sell-off could bring the 200-day moving average, around 10,440, into play.
DAX: Channel support is doing the work
The DAX has a similar problem: it is hanging on to the floor of its rising channel near 25,300, with the rising 50-day moving average around 25,800 overhead. Until it escapes that range, there is little reason to call a sustained move either way.
The relative strength index, or RSI, remains below its neutral 50 level. That leaves room for the index to fill July’s gap near 25,100, or even briefly test the 200-day moving average around 24,800. A visit to the latter would be a surprise, and potentially a fleeting one.
Dow Jones: Repeated momentum failures are a warning
The Dow is confined between recent support near 51,100 and September resistance around 51,800. More concerning than the range itself are three failed attempts by RSI to get back above 50. Ordinarily, that points towards a test of the 200-day moving average near 50,200 unless something changes.
On the upside, a decisive move through the 51,800 to 52,000 area would shift attention towards the 50-day moving average, around 52,800. For now, the range needs to resolve before there is much conviction in either direction.
Cryptocurrencies: Former resistance faces its first test
Bitcoin: Can $82,000 hold?
Bitcoin’s recent hesitation has brought it back to the $82,000 to $83,000 area. That was resistance before the second breakout a week or two ago and is now being tested as support. Holding above $82,000 keeps the top of the rising channel from February, around $95,000, in sight by the end of next month.
An uptrend line in the RSI window is helping to support the setup, although so far it is doing little more than keeping Bitcoin steady. A break below $82,000 would put the rising 50-day moving average near $76,800 in focus, with $75,000 also a plausible downside area.
Ethereum: The $2,600 area is pivotal
Ethereum is also leaning on former resistance. Its previous peaks around $2,580 have become the area to defend, broadly corresponding to the $2,600 zone. While that holds, the target is the top of the rising February channel, just shy of $3,300.
If support gives way, the next level to consider is the 50-day moving average around $2,420.
Gold and crude oil: Two very different charts
Gold: A steep channel finally gives way
Gold has had a difficult few days. The hope was that the floor of its rising channel from June, reinforced by the rising 50-day moving average, would produce another bounce. There were attempts to hold it, but the channel proved too steep to sustain.
Support has appeared around 4,100, in the middle of July’s former trading range. The immediate task for the bulls is to reclaim broken support around 4,200. Without that recovery, 3,970 becomes the next level down and a move below 4,000 remains a risk.
WTI crude oil: A range with a slight upward bias
WTI crude has settled into a range below the gap near $97 and above its rising 50-day moving average around $88. In practice, $90 to $97 looks like the working band while the market makes up its mind.
Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising, and oil has managed to bounce from above the 50-day line. That just tips the chart towards the upside. The unresolved Iran-related backdrop adds uncertainty, rather than a clear reason to assume the range is about to break.
Smaller-Cap Shares to Watch
- Andrada: Strong momentum above 6.5p: Andrada is still looking bullish, provided former resistance from August and September now acts as support around 6.5p. Above that level, 8p is the initial target, with 9.4p a best-case objective by the end of next month. The shares may be allowing the 50-day moving average time to catch up with the price. RSI is also holding comfortably above 50, which keeps the momentum picture encouraging.
- Aptitude: Can the triangle breakout extend?: Aptitude has already reached the top of its triangle around 272p. The first requirement now is to remain above former resistance at 256p on an end-of-day closing basis. A fresh move through 272p would open the possibility of 303p and a return towards previous peaks by the end of next month. A fall back below the broken neckline at 245p would undermine the setup; that is the ultimate stop level on this reading.
- Ethernity: An encouraging turn, with a substantial caveat: Ethernity has spent plenty of time bumping along the bottom, but the chart is beginning to look more encouraging. The shares have recovered above the previous close, and the 50-day moving average is rising. The floor of the gap around 0.002p is the near-term target. Size matters here. With a market capitalisation of roughly £100,000, this is an exceptionally small company and not a situation suited to everyone, however interesting the chart may look.
- Jersey Oil and Gas: A bounce backed by a strong session: Jersey Oil and Gas appears to have bounced from the floor of its rising channel around 101p. The shares have gapped through the rising 200-day moving average, while a session that opened at its low and closed at its high adds to the constructive picture. That points towards 120p or more over the next week or two, even if the move subsequently fades. In the best case, the top of the rising channel from December sits around 147p, with the end of November a more realistic timeframe than the end of October.
- MedPal: The fundraise has not stopped the advance: MedPal continues to surprise on the upside. Despite last week’s £5 million fundraise at 5p, the shares are now more than 2.5p above the placing price. Holding above the previous target area around 6.5p keeps 10p in view by the end of October. That target looked difficult before the cash call and perhaps even less likely immediately afterwards, but the price action has changed the picture. The recent swing low around 5p remains the important level to hold.
- Nativo: A rising 200-day average provides support: Nativo has bounced from a rising 200-day moving average around 0.33p. Its 50-day average is rising too, and the shares have held a gap up from the lows. Together, those are encouraging signs for a retest of the top of the rising channel from March around 0.5p. A best-case move towards 0.7p, effectively a test of the year’s highs, could develop by the end of November. Staying above 0.33p would keep the setup cleaner, although 0.3p allows a little room for normal price movement.
- Oxford Biomedica: The August gap is the next challenge: Oxford Biomedica has advanced without any merger or acquisition activity to explain the move. A breakout through the 470p area brought the initial target, the 50-day moving average near 504p, into focus. With the shares now above that average, attention turns to filling August’s gap up to 580p. The question is whether the breakout has enough strength to carry it that far.
- Shearwater: Former channel resistance becomes support: Shearwater has exceeded its initial target at the top of a falling channel around 57p. That former ceiling now appears to be support, alongside the 50-day moving average at roughly the same level. While the shares hold above 57p, the top of the triangle near 74p to 75p is the next objective, potentially by the end of next month or sooner.
- Time To Act: A possible mirror-image recovery: Time To Act, listed on Aquis, looks as though it may climb the right-hand side of its chart in a similar fashion to the way it fell on the left. The level to defend is recent broken resistance at 35p. Above that, a return to the spring 2025 peak around 65p is possible by the end of next month. The company’s leadership has also made a clear appeal to shift investor attention from past performance towards its plans ahead. The chart now offers a straightforward test of whether that change in focus gains traction: hold 35p, then see whether the shares can work towards 65p.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
