SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Wednesday 30th September 2026

Copper heads for a third-month gain on the prospect of lower refined output

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) – FY26 highlight success on Arbitration claims and Tannenberg copper prospects

Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Interims highlight change of strategy towards exploration in Namibia and Botswana

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – BUY, Target 0.85p – First six months of commercial production and strong lithium prices clear Bougouni project debt

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – Kangankunde export status reiterated amid ongoing downstream beneficiation consultations

Rome Resources* (RMR LN) – Interims show a 45% rise in the Kalayi tin resource

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Placing raises £1m

URU Metals* (URU LN) – £1.25m placing to fund eight-hole drilling at Zeb, South Africa

Copper ($14,528/t) – Copper heads for a third monthly gain on the prospect of lower refined output

• Chinese smelters are expected to step up maintenance in October and November, cutting refined output (Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network).
• Tight mine supply and low inventories continue to support the price.
• High prices are now weighing on spot market physical demand, and US tariff policy remains unresolved.
• China closes for a seven-day national holiday from Thursday.

Gold ($4,201/oz) – Gold rises as cheaper oil eases inflation fears

Sabre rattling continues with ongoing Iranian threats to attack regional oil infrastructure

• Oil fell after Saudi Arabia raised pipeline flows.
• Middle East supply is now close to pre-war levels.
• US 30-year Treasury yields rose for a sixth day and sit at their highest since 2002.
• New York Fed President John Williams said one more rate rise late this year may be appropriate.
• Traders cut the chance of an October rise to ~50%, from 66% a day earlier, and put December at 92%.
• US PCE inflation is due today, nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

Bank of Korea returns to buying gold after 12 years

• The Bank of Korea expects to buy ~1t of domestically produced gold in December, its first physical purchase since 2013 (Bloomberg).
• It held 104.4t at end-August, 3.4% of foreign reserves, and plans to raise that share over the medium to long term.

Lithium – Chinese lithium prices fall 25% in September on doubts over battery demand

• Lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou exchange has fallen below 120,000 yuan ($17,900)/t, from over 160,000 yuan at the start of September (Bloomberg).
• Chinese battery factories have outgrown demand, and the government suspended construction of new plants this month.
• The new battery tax and a slower economy are also weighing on demand.

Currencies

US$1.1353/eur vs 1.1356/eur previous. Yen 156.80/$ vs 157.27/$. SAr 16.344/$ vs  16.423/$.  $1.328/gbp vs  $1.324/gbp.  0.698/aud vs 0.699/aud.  CNY 6.705/$ vs 6.704/$

Dollar Index 101.23 vs 101.29 previous

Economics

US – 30y interest rates hit >5.6%, the highest since June 2022 (FT)

• Fiscal sustainability and an energy driven inflation pull feed the sell off in US debt.
• National debt passe $40tn last month.
• Markets are currently pricing in four more hikes over the next 12 months

China – The government and the central bank announce measures to support growth including mortgage subsidies and rates cuts

• The PBOC would reduce the rate on its pledged supplementary lending (PSL) by 25bp to 1.50%.
• The central bank would also expand the PSL facility to cover investment in water, power grid, computing, communications, urban pipeline and logistics networks.
• Separately, the finance ministry said first-time buyers get a 1ppt annual interest subsidy for up to five years on loans capped at Rmb1m per household for properties <120m2 and value up to Rmb1.5m (from October 1).
• The government is targeting 4.5-5% GDP growth rate in 2026 vs 4.3% recorded in 2Q26.

UK – Labour party conference pledges by PM

• Burnam has also pledged to:
• National Care Service providing free personal care for older people. Burnam’s father just passed and this is fresh in his mind.
• Water – Greater public control of water companies.
  • The aftermath from Macquarie’s treatment of Thames Water and ongoing issues has persuaded many that Water privatisation has not worked as intended.
• Housing: Greater public control of housing – pledge to increase public control of housing.
  • Labour to compulsory purchase properties from rogue landlords. But what will be the definition of a rogue landlord?
  • Labour will also strengthen council powers to take over empty homes and rent them out cheaply to families.
  • Labour will complete reform of Right to Buy, to ensure it doesn’t come at the expense of the public housing stock.
• Energy: Greater public control of energy
  • Labour plans to introduce greater public control in the energy system.
  • Labour will introduce a new publicly owned body within Great British Energy – Great British Grid (GB Grid) – to help improve competition, speed up grid connections for businesses, support reindustrialisation and drive down bills.
• Europe – The UK will hold a summit this year with the EU,  to strike important deals that will boost our economy, cut red tape.
  • Thankfully, the EU appear to have softened their stance toward the UK in the face of Trump.
• Electoral system change: Burnham committed Labour to changing the UK’s electoral system to proportional representation
  • Labour were formerly proposing to reduce the voting age but appear to have dropped that policy as young people appear more likely to vote for other parties

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,201/oz vs    US$4,145/oz previous

Gold ETFs 100.9moz vs 100.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,722/oz vs US$1,692/oz previous

Palladium US$1,235/oz vs US$1,212/oz previous

Silver US$61.5/oz vs US$60.9/oz previous

Silver ETFs 804.3moz vs 804.8moz previous

Rhodium US$9,150/oz vs US$9,250/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$14,528/t vs US$14,402/t previous

Aluminium US$3,217/t vs US$3,245/t previous

Nickel US$16,060/t vs US$16,110/t previous

Zinc US$3,888/t vs US$3,849/t previous

Lead US$1,900/t vs US$1,906/t previous

Tin US$54,350/t vs US$53,690/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$102.6/bbl vs US$106.7/bbl previous

• The December contract spread between Brent and WTI has normalised from >$10/bbl following expiry of the November crude contract overnight, after the US announced plans to release up to a further 40mb from the SPR.

• The API estimated a US inventory w/w build of 1.0mb to crude oil (-1.9mb expected), partially offset by a 0.8mb draw to the SPR, with gasoline stocks gaining 3mb and distillate stocks falling 0.3mb on 13.94mb of domestic crude output.

• European energy prices also edged lower as France’s average nuclear generation was down 9% w/w to 54% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity, which was partly as a result of the 1.6GW Flamanville third-generation nuclear reactor being shut-down last Saturday for a planned 350-day inspection to monitor long-term structural safety.
• Stegra has commenced funding talks after a review of the Company’s development of a 700MW green hydrogen plant and 5mtpa green steel plant in Boden indicated that additional capital is required to complete the project, as the estimated costs of implementing the project are significantly higher than assumed in June, largely due to inflation.

Natural Gas €70.1/MWh vs €72.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $89.4/lb vs $89.3/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$93.7/t vs US$94.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$479.4/t vs US$479.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$277.5/t vs US$279.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$144.0/t vs US$144.0/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$39,140/t vs US$39,140/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$110,075/t vs US$110,084/t

Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$19,166/t vs US$19,168/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,735/t vs US$1,735/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t

Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,875/mtu vs US$1,875/mtu

Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,925/mtu vs US$2,925/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$243/lb vs US$243/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.1/kg vs US$26.1/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$183/t vs US$183/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,952/t vs US$2,952/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,171/t vs US$1,171/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,275.0/kg vs US$4,275.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$450.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb

EV & Battery news:

Company news:

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) 50p, Mkt Cap £159m – FY26 highlight success on Arbitration claims and Tannenberg copper prospects

• GreenX Metals report their annual report and financials to end-June 2026.
• GreenX acquired and advanced the Tannenberg Copper Project in Germany, made some progress on the Eleonore North exploration project in Greenland.
• Poland: Importantly continues to win its international arbitration proceedings against Poland in relation to compensation for the blocking of the development of the Jan Karski coking coal mine.
• Tannenberg Copper mine (90%)
  • GreenX  has substantially expanded the licence area around the historic Tannenberg copper mine to 1,900 km². We note Anglo American has exploration outside these areas.
  • Historic estimate of 728,000t of contained copper grading 2.6% copper across part of the Tannenberg Copper Project based on an extensive drilling campaign undertaken between 1935 and 1938.
  • Drilling from 1980-1984 covering ~28% of the Ronshausen zone shows mineralisation of 3.45m beyond the Kupferschiefer into the limestone hanging wall and sandstone footwall.
  • This mineralisation grades ~2.1% copper and 25 g/t silver for ~169,000t of copper and 6.5 million ounces of silver.
  • The results confirm mineable copper withing a significantly larger zone than just the Kupferschiefer with potential to mine ~30m above and 60m below the Kupferschiefer.
  • JORC Exploration Target:
    • Copper 144–279mt @ 0.9% – 1.4%
    • Silver 144–279mt @ 15 – 21 g/t Ag
  • Contained metal (in-situ):
    • Copper: 1.3 – 3.9mt
    • Silver: 69 – 188moz
  • More drilling will need to be done to expand resources in these areas.
  • Management are moving to Scoping-level metallurgical test work using samples from each lithology and are planning new seismic surveys to support further drilling.
• Eleonore North Project (Greenland)
• Management are targeting gold, tungsten and antimony mineralisation and are advancing towards drill targeting at the North Margeries, South Margeries and Noa Pluton prospects.
  • 83kt of mineralised rock with a mean grade of 4.6% Sb at North Margeries
  • 58kt of mineralised rock grading at 3.2% W at South Margeries
  • 32kt of mineralised rock grading at 1% W at North Margeries
• Arbitration Set-Aside Proceedings
  • The court of Arbitration in Singapore rejected, in its entirety, Poland’s application to set aside GreenX’s Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) award.
  • The Singapore Court also awarded GreenX ~A$1.6m in legal costs, which has been paid by Poland in reimbursement of costs incurred by the Group in defending the unsuccessful ECT set-aside application.
  • GreenX was awarded approximately ~£252m in compensation and interest under the Australia-Poland BIT, following the Tribunal’s unanimous finding that Poland had breached its obligations under both the BIT and the ECT.
  • Approximately £183m was awarded pursuant to the ECT, with payments made under one award to be offset against the other.
  • ~£22m of further interest had accrued between the date of the Award in October 2024 and the end of June 2026.
  • GreenX is preparing to start enforcement of the awards in which court orders can be used to seize Polish government assets for sale to meet the award.
• Financials:
  • Revenue:  A$308k vs 245k in 2025 – interest income.
  • Other income:  A$1.6m vs 252k – arbitration costs .
  • Salaries:  A$0.91m vs 0.96m
  • Total employment expenses:  A$2.7m vs 1.6m – including share-based payment expenses
  • Admin expenses A$3.3m vs 3.1m
  • Arbitration related expenses:  A43.2m vs 3.1m
  • Exploration and evaluation assets impairment:  A$4.4m vs 0.0m
  • Net loss:  A$12.3m vs 6.0m

Conclusion: GreenX is well set for a transformational year with the potential for a substantial payout from the government of Poland and significant further discovery at Tannenberg.

*The analyst has visited the historic Tannenberg copper, silver mine in Germany

Keras Resources* (KRS LN) 1.90p, Mkt cap £3.84m – Interims highlight change of strategy towards exploration in Namibia and Botswana

(Keras holds 100% of the Diamond Creek phosphate mine in Utah, USA)

(The Nayéga manganese mine in Togo is 100% owned by Société Togolaise de Manganèse or the Government of Togo)

• Keras Resources report interim results and an update on the change in business strategy and its proposed name change to Okopa plc.
• Proposed disposal of US phosphate business: Production from the Diamond Creek organic phosphate mine continues to grow.
  • Keras will receive US$1m in cash with the convertible loan note indebtedness cancelled (~£923,000)
  • Keras retains an uncapped royalty of US$10/t on qualifying future Diamond Creek production.
  • The proposed transactions will leave Keras in a materially stronger financial position. Following completion of the Transactions and the conditionally raised up to £1.8 million Fundraise, Keras expects to have a controlling interest in a significant Namibian copper land position, no debt and approximately £1.83 million in cash, while retaining royalty exposure to assets previously developed by the Company.
• Namibia:
  • Keras has acquired an initial 51% interest and potential 70% stake in Cornerstone Mining with assets in Namibia. The deal remains subject to shareholder approval and some other conditions.
  • Cornerstone Mining holds a contiguous 6,214-hectare land position in the Kaoko Copper Belt in north-western Namibia.
  • The deal includes strategic partnerships with local Mining Claim holders including exposure to near-surface copper oxides for potential staged development.
  • There is also potential for the discovery of larger mineralised systems across the broader licence package.
  • Diamond drilling, geological mapping, geophysics, soil sampling and reconnaissance has been done including a ~15,000-tonne bulk sample on EPL 4305.
• Keras has also committed a development loan facility of up to US$2.0m to Cornerstone to expand exploration, define resources and advance activities in the Kaoko Copper Belt, Namibia.
• Funding: Keras is also proposing a conditional fund raising of £1.8m to be supported by new and existing investors.
• Management changes:
  • Russell Lamming steps into the CEO role from Chairman
  • Andrew Malashewsky joins as CFO on the board.
  • Nick Taylor joins as Non-Executive Chairman
  • Claire Parry continues as Senior Independent Non-Executive Director.
  • Brian Moritz will retire from the Board at the conclusion of the AGM on 12 October 2026.
• Interim financials to end June:
  • Revenue:  £244k vs 93k at end December
  • Admin expenses:  -£194k vs -502k
  • Profit:  £31k vs -288k
  • Loss from discontinued ops: -£282 vs -2,691k
  • Total loss:  -237k vs -£3,280k
• The Diane H. Grosso Credit Shelter Trust, an associate of Christopher Grosso advanced loans totalling US$450,000 to the business to pay for certain items of plant and equipment at the Diamond Creek mine.  The loan remained outstanding at 30 June 2026 (£339,000) and is included in Disposal Group borrowings. A further $300,000 has been advanced with the full amount recently converted into an 8% promissory note.
• Cash flows: The Diamond Creek phosphate and Nayéga manganese royalties should generate ~£50,000/month supporting corporate costs and other activities.

Conclusion: Diamond Creek is now profitable but does not represent management’s core expertise. The team expects to see a stronger growth profile from its newly acquired Namibian copper operations.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Keras

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.27p, Mkt Cap £55m – First six months of commercial production and strong lithium prices clear Bougouni project debt

BUY – 0.85p

• The Company released interim results for 1H26 covering the first full period of commercial production at the Bougouni Lithium Mine in Mali.
• Production 53kt SC5.3 during the period.
• A third shipment arrived to Hainan port on 27 June (20.4kt dmt) with the fourth shipment (24kt) departing from CDI port of San Pedro post period end.
• Mining at Ngoualana ran behind plan on machinery availability and blasting efficiency.
• Additional mining equipment was mobilised to site by the contractor.
• Throughput at the DMS plant restored to budgeted levels by period end.
• Strong lithium prices saw KMUK, (65% interest in Bougouni), a Kodal/Hainan 49/51 JV, repaying the Hainan working capital facility in full (US$33m) post period.
• Spot lithium prices averaged ~$2,250/SC6 during the period (1H25: ~$775/SC6)
• A new export permit to 125kt SC secured post period end.
• No issues with fuel or explosives supplies reported with concentrate trucking ongoing unaffected.
• Phase 2 involving development of the 2Mtpa flotation circuit is progressing with the team working with consultant engineers for the proposed design.
• Phase 2 ESIA update and community compensation assessment over the expanded Boumou footprint are progressing as well.
• Financial highlights:
  • Admin costs £1.2m (1H25: £0.8m)
  • KMUK contribution £4.6m (1H25: -£2.4m)
  • PAT £3.5m (1H25: -£3.7m)
  • CFO -£1.6m (1H25: -£1.2m)
  • Capex/Exploration -£0.0m (-£0.1m)
  • Closing cash position £13.4m (Dec25: £14.9m) and no debt.
• Kodal holds 49% of KMUK, which holds 65% of LMLB, so Bougouni is equity-accounted and the Group itself booked no revenue.
• The US$15m settlement payment to the State under the MoU remains unresolved.
• Kodal and Hainan are still in discussions over responsibility, with directors relying on legal advice that a Hainan claim is unlikely to succeed.

Conclusion: Bougouni production and strong lithium market generated enough FCF to clear $33m in debt repayments due to Hainan. The focus is on stabilising Phase1 (DSO) production rates at budget levels and expand with Phase 2 (~2mtpa flotation circuit) feasibility study related work in progress with details expected before YE. Additionally, the Company reports securing another 125kt export permit covering further ~12m of Phase 1 production.

*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) A$0.49, Mkt Cap A$1.1bn – Kangankunde export status reiterated amid ongoing downstream beneficiation consultations

• The Company released an update regarding the government’s review of the Mines and Minerals Act in Malawi.
• The consultation with industry participants relates to the proposed Beneficiation and Value Addition Regulations.
• The consultation does not represent final government policy and are planned to close 10 October 2026.
• Executive Chairman Robert Martin and Executive Director Zac Komur are in Malawi engaging with the President, Ministry of Mining and the Mining and Minerals Regulatory Authority.
• The Company reiterated that the Kangankunde Rare Earth Project is fully permitted with development works ongoing on course for maiden monazite concentrate production before YE26.
• Produced concentrate is not barred from export under the 2025 Executive Order as was confirmed by MMRA in October 2025.
• Applicable licensing, permitting and compliance requirements continue to apply.
• The Stage 1 flowsheet — crushing, milling, grinding, classification, gravity (spirals, shaking tables, MGS), magnetic separation and filtration — delivers a 55% TREO monazite concentrate, which the MMRA recognises as domestic value addition.
• The team reports that local discussions have “highlighted the need to test the technical and economic viability of additional processing”.
• The Company will submit a technical and commercial position paper and has agreed a joint industry position with other listed miners operating in Malawi.
• The stock is down 18% this morning.

Rome Resources* (RMR LN) 0.21p, Mkt Cap £16.9m – Interims show a 45% rise in the Kalayi tin resource

• The company reports unaudited interims for the six months to 30 June 2026.
• Rome Resources is a DRC-focused critical minerals explorer.
• Its Bisie North tin project in North Kivu holds the Kalayi and Mont Agoma prospects.
• Kalayi:
  • Inferred resource 0.46mt @ 1.47% Sn for 6.76kt contained tin, from 5,700m drilled to date.
  • Contained tin up 45% on the October 2025 estimate, with grade up from 1.33%.
  • MSA supports drilling southeast of the main drilled area, where the mineralisation appears to continue deeper at an angle and could double the resource.
  • Kalayi sits 8km along trend from Alphamin’s Bisie mine, the world’s highest-grade tin mine.
• Permits:
  • A small-scale mining programme has started at Kalayi.
  • It aims to convert the Small-Scale Exploitation Permit into a full Mining Licence.
  • That would lift Rome’s ownership to ~79%, subject to binding documentation.
• New Brunswick:
  • Rome has optioned areas in New Brunswick, Canada, covering a tin, tungsten and indium play.
  • Surface rock samples ran up to 0.6% tin, 0.2% tungsten and 1.5% copper, with a 2027 programme due by the end of this year.
• Financials:
  • Operating loss -£580,000 (1H25: -£578,000)
  • Loss before tax -£577,000 (1H25: -£560,000)
  • Exploration assets £14.76m (Dec25: £13.25m)
  • Cash £679,000 (Dec25: £1.42m)
• The Directors say the Group will need to raise further capital and have prepared cash flow forecasts to 30 September 2027.
• Post period:
  • Rome issued warrants over 15,800,000 shares on 22 September at £0.0029, expiring in 2031.
  • It raised £787,500 on 29 September.

Conclusion: Interims show the Kalayi resource up 45% in contained tin and at higher grade, with a small-scale mining programme running towards a full Mining Licence and ~79% ownership.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Rome Resources

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.060, Mkt cap £4.3 – Placing raises £1m

• Tertiary Minerals report the placing of £1m of stock at 0.06p/s subject to approval at a General Meeting on 27 October.
• Funds will be used for deeper drilling at the Target A1 project at Mushima North in Zambia.
• A number of drill holes ended in mineralisation in the recent drill campaign with deeper drilling expected to add significantly to the scale of the prospect.
• Best intersection to date on the Project:
  • 121m at 56g/t Ag, 0.26% Cu and 0.37% Zn (78 g/t Ag eq.) from 4m downhole – ends in mineralisation.
  • Including 52m at 99g/t Ag, 0.41% Cu and 0.43% Zn (130 g/t Ag eq.) from 39m downhole.
  • And 10m at 165g/t Ag, 1.01% Cu and 0.78% Zn (238 g/t Ag eq.) from 80m downhole.
• Further intersections (downhole widths, true widths unknown):
  • 51m at 67g/t Ag, 0.16% Cu and 0.38% Zn (83 g/t Ag eq.) from 28m downhole – ends in mineralisation.
  • 60m at 32g/t Ag, 0.08% Cu and 0.41% Zn (44 g/t Ag eq.) from 39m downhole.
• Highest silver assay to date on the Project at 471 g/t.
• Results now released for 25 of the 39 (3,639m) RC holes, with more to come.
• Drilling was limited to 128m vertical depth by the rig’s capability and a higher-than-expected water table.

Conclusion: We are looking for Tertiary to expand the extent of mineralisation at Mushima North and for the potential identification of copper sulphide mineralisation underlying the known oxide zone. *SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

URU Metals* (URU LN) 2.8p, Mkt Cap £2.7m – £1.25m placing to fund eight-hole drilling at Zeb, South Africa

• URU Metals has raised £1.25m before expenses through an oversubscribed placing of 50m new shares at 2.5p.
• The new shares are 34% of the enlarged capital of 146,963,703 shares, with admission on or around 6 October.
• Proceeds fund an eight-hole diamond programme at Zone 2 of the Zeb nickel project in Limpopo, South Africa, aimed at a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate.
• The programme is ~3,850m of NQ core from four pads, with paired holes testing the shallower part and the down-dip extensions.
• Hole positions come from the completed Leapfrog 3D model, which picked the higher-grade southeastern part of Zone 2 as the priority.
• Zaaiman Exploration Drilling will deploy two rigs, with drilling starting in the coming weeks.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

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