Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude, Capricorn Energy, 80 Mile, GreenRoc, Harena, Jade, ImmuPharma, IMC, Kazera, MobilityOne, Pantheon, Sintana, Tap.
Here is the state of play for charts across indices, crypto, gold, crude oil, and a basket of small caps on the bulletin board. The common theme is not “everything is fine”. It is more like this: markets are still pressing, but the risk is that rallies fail at the same places they have repeatedly failed before, especially while momentum indicators are not yet fully supportive.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
FTSE 100: Under resistance, risk of a retest of key moving averages
The Footsie 100 has been trending down in a falling trend channel since mid-last month. Prices are currently sitting below a resistance area around 10,080, which also acted as earlier support.
From here, the main “decision” points are:
- Potential downside test: the risk area around the 200-day line near 9,637 (with a more recent support level around 9,840).
- What would help: crude oil turning around and geopolitical pressure (in particular Iran-related headlines) easing.
In plain English: as long as FTSE remains huddled under that resistance, you have to respect the possibility that buyers will get challenged again close to the longer-term trend support.
DAX: Gapping action, still trapped in a falling channel
The DAX has been showing gap-up and gap-down behaviour that is frankly disconcerting. Even so, the broader chart remains dominated by the same falling trend channel that has been in place since mid-last month.
There is a “sell signal” flavour to the pattern with an abandoned baby candle showing up. After that, the market has continued to gap down since early month.
What to watch
- Channel top / ceiling: around 21,600.
- Oversold check: it is not oversold yet, which keeps the door open for another test lower.
- Longer-term recovery odds: while below 23,000 (March resistance turned support area), a meaningful turnaround back towards the 200-day line around 24,100 looks slim.
Bottom line: there is no “clean” bullish signal yet. Until price reclaims key resistance zones, the falling channel still does most of the talking.
Dow Jones: Failure near the 200-day line, looking capped
The Dow Jones shows a fairly classic story: repeated attempts to deal with the 200-day line, failing each time. The last try did not even reach it, which is not the strongest sign if you are hoping for a snap-back rally.
- Channel floor: trending support from late December sits nearer the 45,000 area.
- 200-day line: around 46,600.
- Upside ceiling scenario: if things go “fantastic”, the next upside stopping point is suggested near 47,500.
As with other risk assets, positive Iran-related developments would be the kind of headline catalyst that could change the tone quickly. Without that, upside looks limited.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: Crypto breaking structure, with support zones in focus
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is in a generally sadder mode, breaking an uptrend line in the RSI window. Momentum pressure is increasing as Bitcoin drops below the 50-day and slides under the 69,000 level.
- Recent support: around 65,000.
- Worst-case support projection: towards the upper 50,000s, around 57,000.
- Resistance wall: around 71,000 (a hard line where rallies may be sold into).
Ethereum
Ethereum was slightly better earlier, but the picture has also worsened. It is now below the 50-day line near 2,044 and has broken an RSI uptrend line as well.
- Initial support: around 1,900.
- Worst-case projection: near 1,750.
The key takeaway is that neither coin currently has the “momentum cover” you would want if you are expecting a sustained recovery.
Gold: Bull run in question, range trading dominates
Gold is asking a simple question: has the big bull run ended? Right now, price action feels sheepish.
The trading range is roughly between:
- 4,300 and 4,600
And there is a key reference point: February support around 4,400. Gold is trading either side of that, which is not helpful for directional clarity.
Even though the 200-day line is rising and there was a one-touch rebound that looked like it might be a “bull tack”, the 50-day line is falling, making it harder to trust a clean continuation higher.
Crude oil (WTI): The rally case looks stronger after the “rug pull”
Crude oil is the one chart where the tone is more constructive. Even after last week’s sharp dip (a “rug pull”), the setup for continued upside is argued to be stronger than many expect.
Two important points were highlighted:
- There have been two RSI 50 rebounds in the last week. There was also one similar rebound at the end of February that helped forecast a larger move towards 120.
- Multiple RSI 50 plus events often line up with recoveries that surprise people who are only looking at the most recent candles.
Key levels
- Support: upper 80s and especially above 92 (a key line).
- Upside target: up towards 110 by the end of next month.
- What would cause it? The argument is that peace-related developments would likely support crude. But it is framed as a “one would shudder to think what else” kind of headline dependency.
If oil can hold above the critical support zones, the bullish path gets much more plausible.
The common thread across all markets
Whether it is FTSE, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, or WTI, the pattern is similar: charts are in zones where outcomes depend on specific levels. You are not just trading “a direction”. You are trading whether key resistance or support can actually hold.
If you want one rule of thumb from all this analysis, it is this:
- Wait for confirmation around resistance and moving averages (often the 50-day and 200-day lines).
- Respect the risk zones where the market has already failed before.
- Use momentum cues like RSI 50 rebounds, especially in smaller caps where structure changes can be fast.
As always, headlines matter. But levels and momentum are what decide whether the headlines translate into real follow-through.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
