Britain is heading towards significantly greater dependence on imported gas as declining North Sea production outpaces reductions in domestic demand, increasing exposure to global LNG prices and overseas suppliers.
“Britain will control its own energy rather than depending on markets controlled by petrostates and dictators,” Ed Miliband said shortly before Labour won the 2024 general election.
Two years later, industry projections suggest Britain could become more dependent on imported gas as declining North Sea production widens the gap between domestic supply and demand.
Government analysis describes the UK Continental Shelf as a “super-mature” basin, while projections cited in the report suggest UK gas production could fall from around 28 billion cubic metres to 14 bcm by 2030 and about 6 bcm by 2035.
Import dependence could consequently rise above 70% by 2030 and potentially towards 85% by 2035, according to BloombergNEF estimates cited in the report.
That gap would increasingly need to be filled by Norwegian pipeline gas, imported LNG, European interconnectors and storage, particularly during periods of peak winter demand.
The challenge is compounded by the longer-term decline of Norwegian production. Norway currently supplies a substantial proportion of Britain’s gas, particularly during winter, but its mature offshore fields are also expected to decline significantly over the next decade.
That increases the importance of global LNG supplies from exporters including the US and Qatar. New export capacity expected from North America and Qatar could provide additional supply, although Britain would remain exposed to international competition for cargoes and global gas prices.
Reducing demand offers another route to limiting import dependence through greater electrification of heating, insulation and renewable electricity. However, the transition would need to proceed quickly enough to offset the decline in domestic production.
The policy debate therefore centres on whether Britain should accelerate that transition, encourage additional North Sea development, expand LNG and storage capacity, or pursue a combination of all three.
For markets, the implication is clear: unless gas demand falls roughly as quickly as domestic production, Britain will become increasingly tied to international gas markets. That leaves households and energy-intensive businesses more exposed to global price shocks, infrastructure outages and geopolitical disruption — the very dependence policymakers have said they want to reduce.
