Copper heads for a second weekly gain on China demand hopes
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Pitfield produces rutile pigment
Pensana (PRE LN) – Longonjo development ramped down pending funding; Coola farm out
Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 16.5p– Retail offer raises >£2m taking total equity raise to ~£30m
Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – BUY, Target 72p – Annual report highlights value of rare earths, natural rutile and graphite in Kasiya critical minerals project in Malawi
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – H1 reports confirms Redmoor development as its priority objective
Copper ($14,588/t) – Copper heads for a second weekly gain on China demand hopes
- Copper is heading for a second weekly gain, in thin trading with China on holiday.
- The spot premium over front-month Shanghai futures hit its highest since 2021 this week pointing to tight supply onshore.
- Tariff expectations pulled metal into the US this month, leaving stocks thinner elsewhere.
- But, many do not expect Trump to impose tariffs on copper imports into the US.
- Traders are watching Iran-US talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Escondida moves towards a gradual restart following fatality
- BHP is assessing conditions for a gradual restart at Escondida.
- No restart date has been given.
Gold ($4,280/oz) – Gold falls as US 30-year Treasury yields rise to just under 5.5% – the highest in more than two decades.
- Treasury losses deepened Thursday, on inflation fears and worries about government debt.
Nickel ($16,435/t) – Indonesia’s quota cuts fail to lift the price
- Indonesian government plan to cut mining quotas from 379mt to 250-260mt pushed LME nickel to a May high of $20,000/t.
- The mid-year review raised allocations for some operators, including Eramet’s Weda Bay, the world’s largest nicke mine.
- Operators are importing more ore into Indonesia, with 11.4mt taken from the Philippines in January to July, up 67% yoy (WBMS).
- Indonesia’s plants will need 315mtpa of ore at full capacity (Indonesian Nickel Miners Association).
- LME and Shanghai stocks stand at 478,000t, about seven weeks of world supply.
- China imported 170,000t of refined nickel in the first seven months, the highest rate since 2016.
China’s EV and battery makers argue over who pays the new battery tax
- Beijing’s 4% consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries exemption ended in September.
- The tax starts at 2% from 1 September and returns to full 4% a year later (SCMP).
- Battery makers want to pass it on while carmakers are pushing back.
- Talks are still ongoing weeks after the tax returned.
- Chinese carmakers’ profit margin narrowed to 3.6% in the first seven months, against 6.5% across downstream industry (CPCA).
- Battery makers earned nearly twice the carmakers’ combined net profit in the first half, with CATL over 85% of it.
- Solid-state and other advanced batteries are exempt until 2028.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.31% | at | 51,350 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.30% | at | 66,364 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -1.11% | at | 24,487 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -1.22% | at | 3,888 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -3.1 | at | 5.17 |
Currencies
US$1.1389/eur vs 1.1390/eur previous. Yen 158.13/$ vs 158.23/$. SAr 16.350/$ vs 16.358/$. $1.323/gbp vs $1.324/gbp. 0.702/aud vs 0.704/aud. CNY 6.713/$ vs 6.712/$.
Dollar Index 101.15 vs 101.08 previous.
Economics
US/China – Two nations agreed to extend a trade truce by two months that was due to expire November 10.
- Apart from the extension, progress on other matters are reported to have been limited.
Long term US mortgage rates (30y) hit 7% for the first time in almost two years driven by rising bond yields.
- That coupled with rising fuel costs are seen weighing on Republicans’ approval ratings ahead of November midterms
Saudi Arabia intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Taif and the Yanbu area on Thursday, with the Houthis claiming strikes on Riyadh and Aramco facilities at Yanbu (Reuters)
- It was not clear whether there was any damage or casualties in either Taif or Yanbu, the main alternative route for Saudi oil in Red Sea.
- Brent is just under the $105/bbl mark.
Russia – The government proposed a windfall tax on resources companies in an effort to rein in growing budget deficit (Mining.com)
- The Finance Ministry proposed a 20% rate on gold revenues and 30% on fertilizer and other miners.
- The government projects a budget deficit of ~2% of GDP over the 2027-29.
- That compares to ~3% expected this year.
- Defence and security spending is seen as a “strategic priority” for the new budget.
- “The planned resources will enable the equipping of the armed forces with necessary weapons and military equipment, the modernisation of defence enterprises, the payment of monetary allowances to military personnel,” the Finance ministry said.
Zinc – De-industrialisation of Europe continues
- Nyrstar has launched a strategic review on its Budel zinc smelter in Holland.
- The review is scheduled to complete at the year end.
- Nyrstar sees “extremely challenging conditions for zinc smelters globally” due to:
- Chinese overcapacity,
- low processing charges,
- high energy costs in Europe
- difficulty finding zinc concentrates
- Budel capacity of 315,000ppa
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,280/oz vs US$4,286/oz previous
Gold ETFs 100.7moz vs 100.5moz previous
Platinum US$1,752/oz vs US$1,765/oz previous
Palladium US$1,251/oz vs US$1,283/oz previous
Silver US$63.8/oz vs US$64.3/oz previous
Silver ETFs 802.5moz vs 804.0moz previous
Rhodium US$9,450/oz vs US$9,300/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,588/t vs US$14,634/t previous
Aluminium US$3,257/t vs US$3,254/t previous
Nickel US$16,435/t vs US$16,545/t previous
Zinc US$3,961/t vs US$3,918/t previous
Lead US$1,927/t vs US$1,919/t previous
Tin US$53,935/t vs US$54,175/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$106.2/bbl vs US$103.3/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices moved lower on reports that the US and Iran were negotiating a deal alongside the UN General Assembly in New York that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices moved higher as the EIA reported a 53bcf w/w storage build to 3,351bcf, with US inventories 4% lower y/y and 3% above the five-year average, as LNG export capacity fell 14bcf to 124bcf (c.17.7bcf/d).
Natural Gas €73.3/MWh vs €74.0/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $89.5/lb vs $89.6/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$95.1/t vs US$96.0/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$478.0/t vs US$478.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$278.5/t vs US$277.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$144.0/t vs US$143.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$39,640/t vs US$39,640/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$109,931/t vs US$109,577/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$19,141/t vs US$19,144/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,875/mtu vs US$1,875/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,925/mtu vs US$2,925/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$243/lb vs US$243/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.1/kg vs US$26.1/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$182/t vs US$183/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,952/t vs US$2,952/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,169/t vs US$1,170/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,275.0/kg vs US$4,275.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$450.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
China’s EV makers and battery suppliers clash over who absorbs resumed lithium-ion battery tax
- Chinese EV makers and battery manufacturers are locked in negotiations over which side should bear the cost of a resumed consumption tax, a dispute underlining the pressure carmakers face from weak domestic demand.
- Beijing is ending an 11-year exemption on the taxation of lithium-ion batteries, which returned at 2% on 1ˢᵗ September and will rise to the full 4% one year later.
- Battery makers had initially planned to pass the cost downstream.
- EVE Energy, the fifth-largest battery maker by volume, told clients on 24ᵗʰ July it would add the 2% tax to domestic orders shipped after 1ˢᵗ September, with CATL and Tianjin Lishen Battery issuing similar pricing notices.
- EV makers havepushed back, according to two people familiar with the matter, given their profitability is already squeezed by reduced subsidies and softening domestic demand in the world’s largest EV market.
- Caixin Global has reported the tax’s practical cost is modest, adding around 500 yuan ($70) to a typical 50kWh EV battery pack at the current 2% rate, with automakers’ own in-house battery units exempt from the levy.
European truckmakers hedge with hydrogen as Chinese and US rivals push cheaper electric lorries
- Volvo Group has defended its continued investment in hydrogen-powered trucks alongside electric models, with CEO Martin Lundstedt calling it “super dangerous” to bet on a single powertrain.
- Volvo, Daimler Truck, Scania, and Iveco all deepened hydrogen partnerships with Toyota last week, backed by governments including Germany.
- The hedge comes as Chinese makers Sany, SuperPanther, and state-owned Sinotruk push electric trucks into Europe, alongside BYD’s new heavy-duty truck (20-80% charge in 20 minutes) and Tesla’s Semi Truck (550km range), both unveiled at the IAA Transportation show in Hanover.
- Transport & Environment’s Stef Cornelis warned European truckmakers risk losing a quarter of the electric truck market to Chinese and US entrants by decade’s end without faster electrification.
- Seven Western manufacturers still hold about 97% of Europe’s heavy-duty truck market, according to Mobility Global, but electric trucks made up just 4.8% of new EU registrations in H1 2026 vs 92% for diesel, per ACEA data, despite higher diesel prices from the Middle East conflict.
- European truckmakers called on Brussels for a 3-year delay to 2030 emissions-cut rules requiring a 45% reduction versus 2019 levels, needing electric trucks to reach 35% market share to hit the target.
- China is targeting 40% of new truck sales as electric by 2030, up from about 25% last year and 37% more recently amid the Iran war, with Sany planning to price electric trucks 20% below European rivals and launch two more models in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland by end of next year.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.5% | -0.5% | Freeport-McMoRan | -0.7% | 1.7% |
| Rio Tinto | -1.0% | -1.6% | Vale | -1.9% | -6.3% |
| Glencore | 1.9% | 0.4% | Newmont Mining | -1.8% | -2.5% |
| Anglo American | 1.3% | 1.9% | Fortescue | -2.3% | -2.2% |
| Antofagasta | 0.7% | 2.4% | Teck Resources | -0.4% | 2.0% |
Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – 38p, Mkt cap £290m – Pitfield produces rutile pigment
Our in-house metallurgist has conducted a review of the Pitfield process flowsheet
Click here for the review: LINK
Uncoated rutile pigment produced from Pitfield’s weathered ore
- Test work has produced an uncoated rutile pigment from concentrates made from Pitfield’s in-situ weathered ore in Western Australia.
- X-ray diffraction (XRD) testing confirmed all the contained TiO2 was converted into rutile crystal form.
- Purity of 97.6% TiO2 is held back by 0.65% sulphur, which is normally removed during calcination; correcting for it giving higher purity 99.2% TiO2.
- The ore is naturally low in deleterious elements, in particular radionuclides, making refining simpler than for many peers.
Targeting architectural coatings, the largest TiO2 market
- Architectural coatings consume 2.3Mtpa, around 33% of world pigment output (TiPMC Consulting).
- Coated rutile pigment for this market sells at around US$3,250/t.
- The final coating stage costs only ~US$250-320/t on the sulphate route.
- 93% of the TiO2 market is rutile, against 7% anatase.
Coated Rutile Pigment price, Global / Multi-National Producer weighted average
Source: TiPMC
Next steps: coating work, merchant sales and titanium metal
- Empire is in talks with surface treatment specialists on product development, plant design and capital costs for the coating stage.
- It also sees an opening to sell raw uncoated pigment into the merchant market, given the scarcity of high-grade feed.
- The Murdoch University titanium metal test rig is built and being commissioned, on track for early 2027.
Conclusion: a strong step towards a premium product
A strong step for Empire, taking Pitfield from a raw TiO2 product to the rutile pigment form that makes up 93% of the market, using conventional processing. This opens the architectural coatings sector, the largest single market for TiO2. Focus now moves to the coating work and its capital cost.
SP Angel Flowsheet Overview
Our in-house metallurgist has reviewed the Pitfield flowsheet, which we summarise as below: *
- Nature has done much of the work at Pitfield, with weathering leaving anatase at >95% TiO2 in the ore.
- This makes processing straightforward.
- Conventional flotation rejects >90% of the gangue into a >34% TiO2 concentrate.
- The acid leach then recovers up to 98% of the titanium, and bench-scale test work has made a 99.25% TiO2 product.
- Behind the flowsheet sits an 8.16bnt resource for 349mt contained TiO2, with 50% now Measured or Indicated.
- The next steps are the engineering studies in late November, economics in early 2207 and continuous piloting through next year.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Empire Metals
Pensana (PRE LN) 49p, Mkt Cap £205m – Longonjo development ramped down pending funding; Coola farm out
- The Company updates on funding and development of the Longonjo Rare Earth Project in Angola.
- The team reports that Cascade, backed by the State of Qatar, invested only US$15m of the agreed $165m to date.
- While the Company remains in contact with Cascade, the team started parallel detailed financing discussions with its major shareholders to fund the mine through commissioning and into production.
- Outstanding detailed construction design, high-cost site activities and long-lead procurement have been ramped down until financing is finalised.
- Negotiations with potential major offtake partners continue with agreements to be entered into “when required” to support the ABSA and EXIM debt facilities.
- Construction at Longonjo is over 30% complete.
- The construction schedule revised from 2028 to late 2028.
- Separately, the Company agreed a farm out on the Coola Project, located 30km from Longonjo.
- ASX listed Tyranna Resources (TYX AU, Mkt Cap A$9m) will spend US$2.6m over three years diluting Pensana to 20%.
- Pensana is down >20% this morning.
Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 5.4p, Mkt Cap £139m – Retail offer raises >£2m taking total equity raise to ~£30m
BUY – 16.5p (from 17.6p)
- The Company reports the Retail Offer launched earlier this week is now closed raising £2.2m.
- That brings total gross proceeds to £30.1m (~US$40.2m) with 547m new shares to be issued (5.5p).
- Post raise cash and short term treasuries estimated at >$53m.
Conclusion: Retail offer takes gross equity raise proceeds to ~£30m and available cash to ~$53m as the Company prepares to complete environmental permitting, secure project funding and start development works at the Barroso Lithium Project. As highlighted previously, catalyst rich quarters ahead including RECAPE application submission (4Q26), RECAPE decision (1Q27 / within 50 business days hard deadline post submission), FID and start of construction (2027). The team also expects to secure a second offtake partner and have conditional project funding offers before YE. We reiterate BUY recommendation and update our target price to account for new shares – 16.5p (from 17.6p).
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources
Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 25.5p, Mkt cap £172m – Annual report highlights value of rare earths, natural rutile and graphite in Kasiya critical minerals project in Malawi
(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.2% of Sovereign Metals)
BUY, Target 72p
- Sovereign’s annual report highlights the tremendous work done in planning and derisking the Kasiya critical minerals project, near Lilongwe, Malawi.
- Kasiya is world-class in the scale of its natural rutile and flake graphite content along with the presence of substantial critical rare earths in monazite mineralisation.
- The separation and collection of rutile, graphite and monazite is via simple gravity spirals with the monazite collected from the waste stream using electrostatic and magnetic separation.
- A comprehensive DFS with substantial support from the Sovereign-Rio Tinto Technical Committee and others indicates the project has been exhaustively prepared.
- Advice and ideas from some of the world’s best agronomists and engineers have optimised plans for the simple extraction of the valuable minerals restoring ground to a better condition than before mining.
- Kasiya DFS key metrics:
- 12mtpa for Stage 1 rising to 24mtpa in Stage 2 producing 220,000tpa rutile and 275,000tpa graphite
- Capex (Stage 1): $727m and $1,239 for the Life of Mine. Sustaining capex: $431m
- Operating costs: $450/t
- Revenue: $727m and $16,210m for total LoM
- EBITDA: $476m
- NPV@8: $2.2bn
- IRR: 23%
Assumptions:
-
- Rutile pricing: US$1,670/t vs US$1,490/t for 95% grade rutile (FOB Nacala)
- Graphite pricing: US$1,288/t vs US$1,290/t (FOB Nacala)
- REEs: – no revenue is currently included for the Monazite stream for the DFS project
- Monazite Scoping Study:
- Capex: ~US$29m
- Monazite REC: ~2,626tpa recovered from the rutile tailings stream.
- NPV@8: ~US$722m pre-tax
- IRR: ~151%
- Payback: 18 months.
- Op costs: ~US$0.90/kg REC
- Op margin: ~90%
- EBITDA: ~US$84m
- Pre-tax, unlevered free cash flow of ~US$1.8bn over first 23-year of mine life
- Total Integrated Kasiya NPV of US$2.9bn
- Resource: 524.4mt grading 0.0132% monazite
- Resource 69,000t of monazite in 524.4mt ore grading 0.0132% monazite based on: 3,250 magnetic heavy-mineral composites, representing 1,012 boreholes within the DFS pit areas.
- Deepening engagement with the U.S. Government, major U.S. companies, and industry stakeholders
- Western demand is raising prices for Dy, Tb, Y, Sm and Gd oxides due to Chinese export controls since April 2025.
- NdPr for permanent magnets also offer substantial additional revenue.
- The DyTb production should roughly equal ~18% of feedstock for of America’s first DyTb separation plant.
- The Yttrium (Y) output should also represent ~35% of av. US consumption – its mainly used for radar and jet-engine thermal-barrier coatings. The US imports all its Yttrium.
- Offtake discussions advancing with Mitsui, Traxys and other strategic counterparties.
- Land rehab: a second year of rehabilitation trials at the pilot mining site neared completion ahead of the mid-2026 harvest, with crop yields expected to reach 5.2t/Ha of maize, around 5x the regional average.
- “Diversified multi-cropping system expanded, combining maize with bamboo, winter beans, grass fodder and groundnuts on rehabilitated post-mining land”
- “The 28 local farmers involved in the trials formally requested that Sovereign remain at the trial site and support the establishment of a farming co-operative
- – a strong community endorsement and a central pillar of Kasiya’s post-closure social transition strategy”
- All work being done to standards required by development finance institutions
- Hydropower:
- The DFS is based on connection to Malawi’s national hydropower grid via a 132kV overhead line to the Nkhoma substation.
- The new 375MW IFC/World Bank-funded Mpatamanga hydropower station and grid connections will provide a surplus of green energy.
- Transport, logistics:
- A rail line directly to the Port of Nacala in Mozmbique enables transport costs of US$117/t product (FOB Nacala)..
- Year-end financials:
- Cash and cash equivalents: A$ 25.1m at end June 2026 vs A$ 54.5m yoy. No debt
- Group assets of A$ 29.4m vs A$ 55.4m yoy due to fall in cash reserves relating to exploration and evaluation spend on the Project to complete the DFS.
- Exploration and evaluation expenses: A$ 23.4m vs A$ 33.9m yoy
- Corporate and administrative expenses: A$ 1.9m vs A$ 1.6m yoy
- Business development expenses: A$ 2.1m vs A$ 2.3m
- Loss post tax: A$ 25.6m vs A$40.0m yoy.
Valuation: (See flash note for valuation):
Conclusion: Sovereign has had an interesting year. Management retain complete control of the Project with Rio Tinto maintaining it’s equity stake.
This leaves Sovereign management free to negotiate details with Offtakers, development institutions and the Malawi government for the construction of the project.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 5.2p, Mkt Cap £147m – H1 reports confirms Redmoor development as its priority objective
- Strategic Minerals’ half year report for the six months to 30th June reports an after tax loss of US$995,000 (H1 2025 – US$151,000 profit) and a 30th June cash balance of ~US$10m following the raising of £8.7m equity in fundraisings in January and March.
- The company highlights the increased mineral resource estimate (MRE) for its Redmoor tungsten/copper/tin project in Cornwall announced in March which delivered a 49% increase in the ‘Inferred’ resource tonnage to 17.4mt at an average grade of 0.56% WO3, 0.17% tin and 0.50% copper.
- Continuing resource infill drilling at Redmoor is confirming the continuity of mineralised structures within the ‘Sheeted Vein System’ (SVS) which underpins much of the resource as well as identifying additional mineralised structure, including early indications that mineralisation extends into the underlying granite.
- Commenting on progress of its planned 22,500m drilling programme the company reaffirms its previous confirmation that it has drilled “5,000m … to date, on time and on budget”.
- Executive Chairman, Charles Manners, welcomed the increased mineral resource at Redmoor as well as “materially improved metallurgy and a base case NPV of US$1.54 billion … [which] … have now put Redmoor firmly on the map as Europe’s highest-grade undeveloped tungsten project”.
- He commented that “Against a backdrop of record tungsten prices and with growing emphasis on security of supply, our strategy is focused on delivering Redmoor into production as quickly as possible”.
- Today’s announcement also confirms that Cuprum Metals has exercised its option to acquire the Leigh Creek copper project in South Australia with definitive documents signed in September “subject to conditions including Australian FIRB approval”.
- Today’s announcement also reports a decline in revenues at its US-based Cobre magnetite operation to US$1.59m (H1 2025 – US$2.00m) attributing the decline to “a temporary fall in purchase volumes from the largest buyer in January and February, which has subsequently reverted to long-term average levels”.
Conclusion: As it progresses its resource upgrade drilling and feasibility work, Strategic Minerals confirms its focus on bringing its Redmoor tungsten/copper/tin project in Cornwall to production as quickly as possible
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
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Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
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Sales
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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