Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude Oil, Active Energy, Catenai, Cindrigo, Delta Gold, Headlam, Iofina, Phoenix Copper, Raspberry Pi, Scancell.
It is one of those sessions where the charts do most of the talking. There is still a heavy macro backdrop hanging over the market, especially with crude oil charging higher and geopolitical risk refusing to go away, but from a technical perspective, there are some very clear levels to work with across the major indices, crypto, commodities and a handful of UK small caps.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: support has held, but resistance is proving awkward
The FTSE 100 managed a bounce from the rejigged floor of the rising trend channel that has been in place since late October. That support area comes in around 10,200, and for now it has done its job.
The problem is what happened next. The index has repeatedly failed at the 50-day moving average near 10,410, with three or possibly four sessions in a row unable to get through. That is not an especially encouraging look, particularly with the RSI failing around the 50 level as well.
In practical terms, that leaves the FTSE looking vulnerable to another test of support. Rising oil prices are not helping, and if the market cannot reclaim the 50-day line, the expectation remains for a move back towards 10,200.
Below that, the picture becomes more complicated. A deeper pullback could drag the index down towards the 200-day moving average around 9,827. Ideally, though, the market stays on the right side of the more psychological support area around 10,000 to 10,100, with 10,080 standing out as the old initial March support zone.
On the upside, the trigger for a more constructive move is straightforward enough:
- Clear 10,410 at the 50-day moving average
- Then the next target becomes the top of the falling trend channel
- That upper resistance sits around 10,600
So for the FTSE, it is really a case of support having held, but upside progress needing confirmation.
Dow Jones: bounce from the gap floor keeps 52,000 in play
With the German market out of the picture, attention shifts to the Dow. Here the setup looks rather cleaner.
The index has effectively bounced from the floor of a gap area around 48,700. As long as the Dow remains above that zone, the technical bias points higher, with a target of 52,000 by the end of next month.
Clearly, broader news flow matters here. Any easing in geopolitical tension would help that scenario along. But even stripping out the fundamentals and looking purely at the chart, the rebound has been reasonably convincing.
There was a strong RSI rebound from above 50, which is often the sort of signal that suggests buyers are still in control. If there were no macro headlines in the background, the chart alone would suggest the Dow is already on its way to 52,000.
On the downside, if there is a rug pull or a disappointment on the geopolitical front, the key support to watch is the 50-day moving average at 47,800.
So the Dow setup is:
- Above 48,700, target 52,000
- If sentiment sours, look to 47,800 as the main support
Bitcoin: still keeping everyone guessing
Bitcoin remains in recovery mode, but the bigger question has not yet been answered. Is this a rally within a bear market, or the start of a more durable move higher?
Price is still trading within a recovery channel, and at this stage the market is keeping everyone guessing. The concern is that the chart has already shown how quickly apparent support can fail. Back in November and January, what looked like a floor turned into a rug pull.
That is why caution is still warranted around the current structure. A fade near 80,000 remains a plausible scenario, followed by a move back towards the floor of the channel around 66,000.
That said, there are positives too. The RSI is roughly half full rather than half empty. Bitcoin has posted three RSI rebounds from the 50 area, which is a constructive sign. If the market can establish itself above 80,000, the next obvious target becomes the 200-day moving average around 84,000.
For now, the key levels are:
- 80,000 as the near-term breakout or fade point
- 84,000 as the upside target if 80,000 gives way
- 66,000 as the lower channel support if the rally rolls over
Ethereum: lagging Bitcoin, but still trying to recover
Ethereum looks a little weaker than Bitcoin on a relative basis. The market is still struggling with the top of the falling trend channel that has been in place since August.
The important resistance area is around 2,570, which also marks the top of the recovery channel from February. That is the level bulls will want to see challenged while the market stays above the 50-day moving average at 2,207.
At the moment, that 50-day line is the main downside reference point and effectively the worst-case support level in the near term. As long as Ethereum remains above it, the recovery argument stays alive, even if the chart is not as strong as Bitcoin’s.
Gold: support has slipped, and resistance has moved lower
Gold has become a bit more disappointing in the near term. The market had been trying to hold 4,600, but that support did not quite stick. In fact, the resistance zone has now shifted down to around 4,650.
If gold remains below that area, the risk increases of a retest of the 200-day moving average at 4,277. That would be a fairly uninspiring development for the bulls.
On the upside, there is still a route to recovery if the market can stay on the right side of 4,500. In that case, the initial resistance to watch is the top of the falling trend channel from January, coming in around 4,730. The better-case scenario is then a push towards the 50-day moving average at 4,834.
So gold is not broken, but it has lost some of its recent shine and needs to reclaim resistance levels quickly.
WTI crude oil: still bullish, with more room if $100 holds
Crude oil remains one of the clearest bullish charts on the board.
Recent resistance around $102 has effectively given way, and the market tends to move in roughly $10 ranges. That arithmetic points naturally from $102 to $112, and price has already traded up towards $111.
Beyond that, a move towards the top of the broader range in the $120 area looks realistic, especially if the market holds above the key $100 a barrel level. Depending on how one draws the upper channel, there is even scope for much more aggressive upside, potentially into the $130 to $140 region.
What makes the setup more interesting is that the market is still not overstretched. The RSI is only around 60, which suggests there is still plenty of fuel left in the move.
Of course, every bullish chart needs a failure point. If there is a sudden rug pull, the main support comes in at the 50-day moving average around $91, which also lines up with the floor of the channel.
For crude, the roadmap is quite simple:
- Above $100, the bias remains firmly bullish
- $120 is the next major upside zone
- $91 is the key support if the move unwinds
UK small caps and selected shares
On a quieter day for parts of the market, several smaller names still stand out on chart grounds. Some are early-stage breakouts, others are continuation moves, but all of them have clear levels worth tracking.
Active Energy: rebound building above key moving averages: Active Energy is having another go on the upside. The chart shows a bear trap rebound from below the 50-day moving average, with price effectively bouncing from old resistance around 0.080p. It has also pushed well above the 200-day moving average at 0.097p, and that is a key technical improvement. As long as the shares hold above the 200-day line and the RSI stays above neutral 50, the setup remains constructive. The targets are: 0.12p initially. Then potentially 0.15p by the end of next month
Catenai: needs a close above 0.30p: Catenai has come back into favour a bit, or at least bounced from recent support. The important support zone is around 0.24p, and recent resistance sits at 0.30p, which capped the shares in April. The next move really depends on whether the stock can deliver an end-of-day close above 0.3p. If it does, then 0.40p plus by the end of next month is the target zone. Until then, the main requirement is simply to keep holding above 0.24p.
Cindrigo Holdings: breakout from a falling trend channel: Cindrigo has broken out of a falling trend channel, which immediately improves the technical picture. The first upside objective is the 200-day moving average at 9.75p. That comes after clearing the top of the channel around 7p. If momentum continues, the best-case scenario becomes 12p by the end of next month, corresponding to the upper parallel of the falling trend channel from October.
Delta Gold: one of the more exciting Aquis charts: Delta Gold is arguably one of the livelier situations on Aquis at the moment. The stock is finding support around, and just below, the 100p level, which is encouraging. The initial target is 131p, representing the upper parallel of the previous 85p target zone. The more ambitious view is for a move towards 170p by the end of next month. It may sound a long way off, but this is a punchy chart, and sporadic buying interest from Purebond adds to the interest around the name.
Headlam Group: triangle breakout points to 52p and potentially 67p: Headlam is not a chart that gets covered every day, but it is beginning to look more interesting. The shares have been breaking through recent resistance at 45p. Above that level, the first target is the 200-day moving average at 52p. If the move continues, the top of the triangle from September points to a more ambitious target as high as 67p by the end of next month.
Iofina: already through target, momentum still strong: Iofina has already beaten what looked like a fairly ambitious target at 39p. That breakout changes the tone of the chart quite quickly. With resistance overcome via a gap move, the next target becomes 46p. On the current rate of progress, that could arrive sooner than expected rather than having to wait until month-end.
Phoenix Copper: breakout backed by a rising 50-day line: Phoenix Copper has quietly improved. The shares have broken out of a falling trend channel, and there had already been a hint of positive divergence through the rising trend in the RSI window. Now the breakout is in place, and there is a rising 50-day moving average off the lows, which tends to be a useful technical signal. The best-case target here is a move towards the old December support area at 1.7p, while the shares remain above the 50-day line just below 1.1p.
Raspberry Pi: mid-move consolidation with scope for fresh highs: Raspberry Pi remains a favourite chart simply because it continues to behave well technically. The current pattern looks like a mid-move consolidation. The shares have already broken above a previous target around 636p. From here, the obvious near-term objective is a retest of recent highs at 683p. If that barrier gives way, the next target is 780p by the end of next month, which would bring last year’s high back into play.
Scancell: back in play after breaking the previous target: Scancell looks as though it has come back into play. The shares have broken through the previous target at 14.66p, and that opens up a move towards the next level at 18p. The ideal scenario is a steady rise while remaining above the 50-day moving average throughout. If that support continues to hold, the chart points to 18p by the end of this month.
The bigger picture
The broad theme across the market right now is fairly consistent. A number of major assets are sitting at inflection points:
- The FTSE 100 is trying to defend support but still cannot clear resistance
- The Dow looks more constructive and still points towards 52,000 while key support holds
- Bitcoin and Ethereum are recovering, but neither has fully resolved whether this is a genuine trend change or simply a rally within a broader weak phase
- Gold has softened and needs to reclaim lost ground
- WTI crude remains one of the standout bullish charts, with oil strength still influencing the wider market backdrop
Meanwhile, in the small-cap space, there are several names where the setups are cleaner than the broader market. Breakouts in stocks such as Cindrigo, Iofina, Phoenix Copper and Scancell are worth respecting, while Delta Gold and Raspberry Pi continue to look particularly lively.
As ever, it comes back to levels. If support zones keep holding, these charts can continue to improve. If they do not, the downside markers are already clear enough. Either way, there is no shortage of tradable structure on the board at the moment.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
