Gold prices steady amid uncertainty over rates outlook and Iran war resolution
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – Results highlight expansion of Rwanda trading and advances in work programs across Morocco, Rwanda and Botswana
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Nielle gold license expiration
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – FY25: magnet recycling momentum builds up with MKAR Nasdaq listing in sight
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Fertile structure assessed from drill core at Fermi uranium prospect in Athabasca Basin, Canada
Sun Peak Metals (PEAK CN) – Additional VMS targets identified in Saudi Arabia as maiden drilling looms
IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.62% | at | 49,652 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.38% | at | 59,513 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -1.28% | at | 25,777 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.11% | at | 4,112 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.6 | at | 4.39 |
Currencies
US$1.1738/eur vs 1.1680/eur previous. Yen 156.30/$ vs 160.50/$. SAr 16.693/$ vs 16.825/$. $1.361/gbp vs $1.349/gbp. 0.720/aud vs 0.713/aud. CNY 6.829/$ vs 6.837/$.
Dollar Index 98.06 vs 98.90 previous.
Economics
US – President Trump is scheduled to seek a Congress approved extension to the military operation in Iran later today.
- Republicans who hold a slim majority in both chambers of Congress are likely to grant the president an extension.
- Under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, the president can carry out military action for only 60 days before seeking an authorisation or a 30-day extension from Congress.
- President Trump formally notified Congress of the conflict 48 hours after strikes began on February 28, with a 60-day period running out on May 1.
Trump was scheduled to receive a briefing yesterday on plans for a series of new military strikes on Iran to pressure Tehran accepting US terms for the nuclear deal.
- Iran said it would respond with “long and painful strikes” on US positions if Washington renewed attacks.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The S&P 500 registered its best monthly gain (+10%) since the November 2020 Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough, led by gains in technology stocks.
- The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 15%, marking its best month since April 2020.
- Investors seem unfazed by the evolving energy crisis and higher rates outlook.
Eurozone – The ECB held rates unchanged at 2% (deposit rate), in line with estimates.
- Monetary authorities are reported to have discussed a potential hike this month “at length and in depth” but unanimously decided to keep rates at current levels.
- ECB President Lagarde said that long term expectations remained anchored so far but that the decision would be revisited ahead of the next decision on June 11.
- The announcement followed up an inflation report showing CPI climbed more than expected to 3% in April.
UK – The BOE kept rates at 3.75% but suggested they may increase if the Iran war continues.
- The MPC voted 8-1 in favour of the decision with Huw Pill (BOE Chief Economist) arguing for a 25bp hike.
- The future path for interest rates is contingent on the course of the energy shock.
- A slightly dovish tone at the press conference saw market odds of a hike at the next meeting in June fall to ~50%, from around 70% before the meeting.
- CPI hit 3.3% in March on higher petrol prices.
Precious metals:
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
Gold US$4,587/oz vs US$4,589/oz previous
Gold ETFs 98.8moz vs 98.8moz previous
Platinum US$1,975/oz vs US$1,937/oz previous
Palladium US$1,520/oz vs US$1,485/oz previous
Silver US$73.4/oz vs US$72.8/oz previous
Silver ETFs 791.3moz vs 793.2moz previous
Rhodium US$10,000/oz vs US$10,000/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,010/t vs US$13,035/t previous
Aluminium US$3,510/t vs US$3,474/t previous
Nickel US$19,605/t vs US$19,405/t previous
Zinc US$3,384/t vs US$3,316/t previous
Lead US$1,947/t vs US$1,952/t previous
Tin US$49,180/t vs US$49,325/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$110.7/bbl vs US$122.0/bbl previous
- Brent crude oil prices held above $110/bbl as both the US and Iran maintained their respective negotiating positions that dampened expectations for the near term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Henry Hub prices gained after the EIA reported a lower than normal 79bcf (+83bcf exp) w/w storage build to 2,142bcf, with US inventories now 6% above last year’s level and 8% above the five-year average as LNG export capacity fell 1bcf w/w to 133bcf based on the 35 LNG vessels departing US ports.
Natural Gas €46.1/MWh vs €47.2/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $86.5/lb vs $86.6/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.4/t vs US$108.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$474.1/t vs US$473.6/t
HCC FOB Australia US$234.5/t vs US$232.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$138.0/t vs US$134.8/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$113,122/t vs US$112,985/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$24,821/t vs US$24,791/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,450/t vs US$2,450/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,343/mtu vs US$2,343/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$198/lb vs US$198/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.6/kg vs US$28.6/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$250/t vs US$249/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,799/t vs US$2,799/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,150/t vs US$1,148/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,275.0/kg vs US$3,275.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$28.0/lb vs US$27.5/lb
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 2.3% | -2.1% | Freeport-McMoRan | 1.5% | -6.0% |
| Rio Tinto | 2.7% | 0.2% | Vale | 3.2% | -4.6% |
| Glencore | -0.8% | 1.0% | Newmont Mining | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Anglo American | -0.3% | -3.2% | Fortescue | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Antofagasta | -0.8% | -4.5% | Teck Resources | 3.1% | -4.8% |
Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 23.55p, Mkt Cap £4.2m – Results highlight expansion of Rwanda trading and advances in work programs across Morocco, Rwanda and Botswana
(Aterian holds 100% of Agdz Copper-Silver Project in Morocco)
- Rwanda: HCK Lithium-Tantalum tin, tantalum and tungsten prospects
- (owned 70% by Aterian and 30% by HCK Mining Company Ltd.)
- Rio Tinto spent US$4.73m on diamond drilling, geochemical sampling and geophysical surveys with four holes (1,180m) intersecting multiple pegmatite dykes at HCK-1 and HCK-2 with downhole thicknesses locally reaching up to 79 m.
- MWOG0002: 6.90 m grading 2.11% Li₂O, including 3.45 m at 3.20% Li₂O within fresh pegmatite below the weathered zone.
- The results validated the pegmatite exploration model developed from earlier geological mapping, geochemical sampling and geophysical surveys.
- Exploration programme also included the collection of 257 rock samples, 2,643 soil samples, and approximately 246 km of ground magnetic surveys along with radiometric data and mineralogical tests.
- Musasa Lithium-Tantalum Project (100%), on the eastern shores of Lake Kivu, Rwanda.
- The team have identified 23 pegmatites with indicators for more pegmatites observed at a further 20 locations.
- Management have undertaken initial target generation work with 66 observation points established and evidence of current or historic artisanal mining identified at eight locations.
- Rwanda: Eastinco Limited (100%)- mineral trading platform
- Trading operations resumed in February 2025 following the stabilisation of Rwanda’s Inkomane mineral traceability and trading system.
- Eastinco is registered as a compliant participant and conducts trading activities in accordance with Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board (“RMB”) requirements and international responsible sourcing frameworks, including the Responsible Minerals Initiative (RMI) and OECD Due Diligence Guidance.
- Aterian secured a US$250,000 mezzanine loan facility, alongside a trade finance agreement providing up to US$4.5 million to fund purchases of tantalum, niobium and cassiterite concentrates.
- Trading activities generated a gross profit during Q4 2025, demonstrating the viability of the Company’s trading model.
- Aterian has added a further US$25m working capital facility through Wogen for supplier payments, inventory financing, and full-cycle trade funding.
- A further £450,000 was raised through equity and convertible bonds to expand trading infrastructure in Rwanda.
- Morocco (100%): AI exploration joint venture with Lithosquare to accelerate target generation.
- Aterian hold 44 exploration licences covering approximately 663 km² in the prospective Anti-Atlas region, targeting copper and silver mineralisation.
- During the year, exploration programmes continued across the Company’s key projects at Agdz, Tata, Azrar and Jebilet Est.
- Agdz Copper-Silver Project: lies 35 km east of Ouarzazate, within the Anti-Atlas belt, near Managem’s Bouskour copper-silver mine and the Imiter silver mines.
- Elemental Altus Royalty Corp. holds a 2.5% NSR royalty over each licence, except for Akka and West Tazalaght, where no royalty applies.
- Tata Copper Project: Rock chip sampling has returned values of up to 7.02% Cu from bedding-parallel mineralisation within lower Adoudou siltstones.
- Azrar Copper-Gold Project: lies 45 km from the Tizert copper mine.
- Recent results include 0.80% Cu over 4.2 m at the Izarzar fault target and 0.82 g/t Au with 0.63% Cu over 9 m at the Tifrit quartz vein target, including 2.97 g/t Au and 2.00% Cu over 0.7 m.
- Jebilet Est Copper Project
- Rock chip sampling returned values including 2.09% Cu, 9.25% Cu, and 0.68% Cu from several newly identified targets.
- Two principal mineralised zones, with grades of up to 4.43% Cu in the western licence and 3.11% Cu in the eastern licence.
- Akka Copper Project
- Initial reconnaissance sampling returned values up to 3.93% Cu from quartz-carbonate veining within a fold hinge structure.
- Additional samples returned 0.30% Cu and 0.34% Cu, while disseminated copper oxide mineralisation within Adoudou dolomites returned anomalous values of 0.16% Cu.
- West Tazalaght Copper Project
- 7 km west of the Tazalaght Copper Mine with initial reconnaissance sampling returned values of up to 0.25% Cu, and evidence of historical copper activity, including smelter slag containing malachite.
- Botswana (90%)
- Aterian hold 14 prospecting licences comprising eleven copper-silver licences in the Kalahari Copperbelt (KCB) and three lithium brine licences in the Makgadikgadi Pans.
- One licence lies ~50 km east of MMG’s Khoemacau Copper Mine Zone 5 deposit while another is located 7 km west of the Banana Zone deposit. MMG acquired Cuprous Capital Ltd, for its Khoemacau deposit for US$1.73bn.
- Satellite-based remote sensing using Sentinel-2 imagery identified spectral signatures associated with minerals such as bornite, chert, goethite and illite, together with anomalous CO₂ and helium emissions, which may indicate concealed copper-silver mineralisation beneath soil or deep cover.
- AI is being used to enable a portfolio-wide desktop target ranking exercise to prioritise follow-up exploration.
- Sua Pan lithium brine licences: work continues on brine evaluation
- AI – Lithosquare Partnership
- Up to €1.4 million fully funded AI-led programme directed across eight priority Aterian projects (“JV Projects”)
- Potential for Lithosquare to earn a 2.0% net smelter return (NSR) and up to 49.9% equity, strictly tied to exploration success and value creation
- Initial €500,000 investment for AI-driven target generation, geophysics, mapping and scout drilling to identify high-value copper and critical mineral targets rapidly
- €900,000 additional projected drilling to advance successful targets
- Lithosquare has an initial 20% project interest and 0.5% (“NSR”) with additional equity and NSR interests tied to value creation catalysts
- Financials to end 2025
- Revenue £0.1m vs 0.04m yoy
- Admin expenses £1.7m vs 1.7m yoy
- Interest costs £-£0.26m vs £0.06m
- Pre-tax loss: £2m in 2025 vs £1.6m in 2024
Conclusion: Aterian has many facets and areas for potential discovery. The team are methodically progressing on-the-ground geology while evaluating the data using AI for new target generation. Exploration and trading in Rwanda is particularly promising with a sizeable expansion in the metal trading platform and good prospects for meaningful discovery on the pegmatites at HCK and Musasa.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.31p, Mkt Cap £63m – Nielle gold license expiration
BUY – 0.86p
- The Company reports the Nielle gold exploration license in Cote d’Ivoire expired.
- The concession located in the Tongon-Banfora greenstone belt was initially granted in 2014.
- The license was held for an initial three year term followed by two renewals (three years each).
- The team was granted an exceptional two-year renewal in 2023.
- The Company requested a further exceptional renewal earlier but was not granted one.
Conclusion: The Nielle gold exploration license expired with the team still holding a number of other gold exploration licenses currently under application in Mali and Cote d’Ivoire. We are not attributing much value to the exploration portfolio at this point ($5m nominal contribution) with key valuation drivers remaining Stage 1 ramp up and a delivery of Stage 2 expansion at Bogouni Lithium Mine in Mali.
*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 45, Mkt Cap £174m – FY25: magnet recycling momentum builds up with MKAR Nasdaq listing in sight
BUY
- The Company released its 2025 financial results highlighting progress across its portfolio of REE mining/separation and magnet recycling/manufacturing assets.
- In the UK, first production runs were reported at the commercial scale HPMS magnet recycling/manufacturing facility at Tyseley Energy Park, Birmingham.
- 9.2t of magnet material has been produced since the start up in July 2025 with 7.4t shipped to customers.
- The facility is expected to run initially at 100-350tpa of NdFeB alloys and magnets with a phased expansion to 1,000tpa currently being evaluated.
- In Germany, first commissioning runs of recycled NdFeB alloy powder from the commercial scale HPMS vessel at the facility in Pforzheim were announced in April 2026.
- Capacity is fully permitted for production of up to 750tpa of NdFeB magnets and alloys.
- Production will start at a minimum initial capacity of ~100tpa NdFeB rising to ~350tpa.
- HyProMag GmbH is evaluating the potential to scale up the Pforzheim lines to 750tpa over the next three years.
- In the US, the Maginito/CoTec JV (40% MKA) signed a lease agreement for the proposed HPMS recycling/manufacturing facility in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas.
- The team is considering options to expand capacities from initially envisaged ~1,600tpa to ~4,700tpa.
- A post tax NPV of >$2bn and IRR of 39% (based on forecast market prices) support the start of a PFS for the expansions and help build momentum for a planned US public listing.
- At the mining/separation part of the business, the team released details of updated Songwe Hill FS (Post Tax Nominal NPV10/IRR $340m/24%, under Adamas Intelligence Base Case prices) and Pulawy Separation Facility PFS (Post Tax Nominal NPV10/IRR $779m/40%) details.
- The Company progressed with spinning out Songwe Hill and Pulawy into a separate listed vehicle (MKAR).
- MKAR confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form F‑4 to the US SEC with a Nasdaq listing targeted for mid-2026.
- The implied pro forma valuation for the Company’s interest in MKAR is estimated at $400m.
- FY25 financial highlights:
- G&A -$6.8m (2024: -$3.1m) on larger scope of operations and additional MKAR deal costs
- PAT -$17.6m (2024: -$0.4m) including a $10.8m charge on revaluation of outstanding warrants.
- CFO -$4.2m (2024: -$2.1m)
- CFI -$2.5m (2024: -$0.7m) mostly reflecting spend on HyProMag recycling projects in the UK and Germany.
- Closing cash $3.1m with minimal debt ($600k convertible loan related to the MKAR Nasdaq listing and $1.3m in outstanding leases).
- The Company raised $15.5m (at 3.3p) in April to fund the ramp up of its magnet recycling and manufacturing operation in the UK and Germany.
- HyProMag USA, a Maginito/CoTec JV, is being funded by CoTec which responsible for FS and development related costs.
Conclusion: The FY25 report highlights major operational milestones, with first production runs confirmed at Birmingham and Pforzheim HPMS facilities as well as ongoing design works for US operations. The magnet recycling and manufacturing business is transitioning from development into early commercialisation, with a clear phased path to scale across multiple geographies. The planned MKAR spin-out and Nasdaq listing represent a potentially significant re-rating catalyst, with an implied pro forma valuation of $400m for Mkango’s interest. The Company is well funded following the latest raise with key catalysts to watch from here including the UK and German ramp-ups, a FID on HyProMag USA, and progress on the MKAR listing timeline.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 13.1p, Mkt cap £14.8m – Fertile structure assessed from drill core at Fermi uranium prospect in Athabasca Basin, Canada
- Power Metal Resources reports the identification of a fertile structure for uranium mineralisation from the analysis of cores from the Rapids Fault Structure at Perch River.
- The technical team have concluded recent drilling has intersected the distal, upper extent of the system.
- Supplementary drill core samples also confirm a geochemically and mineralogically fertile environment for unconformity-related uranium deposits.
- The presence of sudoite, hydrothermal tourmaline and dolomite within the Rapids Fault structure along with boron potentially indicates the presence of primary uranium mineralisation within a 100m.
- Drillhole PR25-01 returned boron levels of 779 ppm
- Anomalous lead isotope readings also serve as a direct proxy for significant uranium decay and are spread along a strike of at least 400m along the Rapids Fault structure.
- The convergence of high-temperature sudoite alteration, hydrothermal tourmaline and radiogenic lead suggests the hydrothermal core, which may contain an uranium deposit, remains untested at greater depths.
- The RNS gives greater detail on the rationale behind the interpretation.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources
Sun Peak Metals (PEAK CN) C$0.37, Mkt Cap C$60m – Additional VMS targets identified in Saudi Arabia as maiden drilling looms
- Sun Peak Metals, who have accumulated a large-scale land package in Saudi Arabia prospective for VMS discoveries, provides an update.
- The Company reported yesterday that they have identified two new VMS gossan zones at the Halahila VMS Project.
- The targets are located 3.5 and 5km south along trend from the Halahila Main zone.
- Rock chip sampling returned highlights including 1.32g/t Au, 11g/t Ag, 0.64% Cu and 1% Zn.
- The gossans identified lie beneath Wajid sandstone cover, boosting expectations of additional concealed VMS targets along trend.
- Additionally, geophysics surveys have identified confirmed the 650m gossan zone at Halahila Main, where rock-chip and grab samples previously returned 16g/t Au and 180g/t Ag.
- The exploration team is conducting further mapping, rock chip sampling, TDEM surveys and ground gravity surveys over the target area.
- Halahila lies along trend from the Al Masane copper-zinc mining complex, 45km to the north, with the Kutam copper mine lying 40km to the west.
- Management notes drilling will begin in late 2Q26, marking a maiden drill programme for Sun Peak in Saudi Arabia.
Conclusion: Sun Peak is becoming one of the more interesting Saudi exploration stories on listed markets currently. The Company has accumulated a large-scale land package, with focus on previously underexplored VMS-prospective licences. Systematic ground-based exploration programmes are supporting drill target delineation, and we see the maiden drill programme due this quarter as a watershed moment for the Company, who have done well to refresh their story following a pivot away from Ethiopia. We look forward to further results from the ongoing exploration programme and more detail on the planned drill programme.
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
No.1 for Precious Metals: Q1 2026
No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
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