Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Blackbird, Bradda, Cindrigo, Great Western, ImmuPharma, Iconic, Kendrick, Metals One, Pantheon, Panther, Zanaga.
There is a clear split across the markets at the moment. Some charts are rolling over, some are clinging to support, and one market in particular is driving the whole mood: crude oil.
That matters because when oil starts pushing higher aggressively, it becomes a headwind for equities and a source of volatility everywhere else. So the technical picture right now is not just about isolated levels on individual charts. It is about how rising energy prices are feeding into broader risk sentiment.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Here is the current setup across the major indices, crypto, gold, crude, and a selection of smaller-cap stocks.
FTSE 100: resistance failure puts 10,000 back in play
The FTSE 100 has failed at the resistance line from last month and also failed just above the 50-day moving average at 10,334. There was enough strength on the previous close to make the market look as though it wanted to turn bullish, but the surge in oil has changed the tone.
While the FTSE stays below the 50-day moving average, the initial downside target is the floor of the channel at 10,190. Beneath that, support comes in around 10,150.
If the pressure deepens, the next levels to watch are:
- 10,080, which marks the initial March support
- 9,877, the 200-day moving average
That lower target probably only comes into play if oil really accelerates, perhaps into the 110 to 120 area. On momentum, the RSI has failed again at 50, and that is now a repeated warning sign rather than a one-off wobble. Technically, that points to a market that is more likely to drift towards 10,000 than recover sharply from current levels.
DAX: trend break and abandoned baby signal weaken the picture
The DAX has broken its uptrend line from March and is also losing grip on the 200-day moving average around 24,100. That on its own would be enough to make the chart look vulnerable, but the candlestick action has made matters worse.
There is now what looks like an abandoned baby reversal pattern, with a gap up followed by a gap down. Combined with the trend line break, it is not a great look.
The minimum downside target now appears to be the 50-day moving average at 23,700. After that, there is an April gap that could pull the market down towards 23,400.
The other problem is momentum. The RSI has slipped below the neutral 50 level, and that had been one of the more supportive features of the DAX chart. Without it, the bulls have less to work with.
For the positive case to revive, the DAX really needs an end-of-day close back above 24,100. If that happens, resistance comes in at:
- 24,500, yesterday’s resistance
- 25,000, the next obvious upside level
For now though, that upside scenario looks less likely.
Dow: still the strongest of the major indices
The Dow remains the standout among the big indices. It has managed to close above the key 50,000 level and is holding above the uptrend line from March, which sits around 49,500.
That keeps open the possibility of a move towards 52,000 and beyond, based on a projection from the November resistance line.
That said, given the weakness elsewhere, the more realistic near-term outcome may be a range trade between:
- 48,700 on the downside
- 50,000 on the upside
The important thing is relative strength. With the RSI at 63, the Dow is still comfortably ahead of both the FTSE and the DAX in technical terms.
Bitcoin: the 200-day moving average remains the battleground
Bitcoin is still struggling with the 200-day moving average and the top of the February channel. Price has been trying to tag that 200-day line but has not quite managed it.
That makes the current zone important for both bulls and bears. If you are bearish, this is the area where the short setup makes sense, with Bitcoin sitting just below 82,000 and just under the 200-day moving average.
If price can close above the 200-day line, then resistance is relatively thin up to 90,000. That helps explain the current tug of war.
On the downside, support is clustered around 78,000, which was the initial May support area. Momentum is still constructive, with the RSI in the upper 50s and the RSI uptrend line still intact for now.
If there is a more aggressive reversal, then the 50-day moving average just below 75,000 becomes the obvious support zone.
Ethereum: less convincing than Bitcoin
Ethereum has never looked quite as strong as Bitcoin on the rebound from the February lows. The chart has now spent three consecutive sessions at the 50-day moving average, which normally would qualify as a bona fide buy area. That level comes in at 2,237.
The issue is momentum. The RSI has failed below neutral 50, and that introduces the risk of another leg lower.
If Ethereum closes below the 50-day moving average, the next downside target is the floor of the channel from February near 2,100.
On the upside, there is solid resistance around 2,400. A rebound into that zone is possible, but it would still be a rebound into resistance unless momentum improves.
Gold: the battle at the 50-day line has been lost
Gold has also been fighting with its 50-day moving average, and that battle appears to have ended in defeat. The 50-day line has given way, and the metal is now sitting on the uptrend line from October.
If that trend line breaks, the obvious next destination is the 200-day moving average at 4,343. For anyone looking for a safer technical buy point, that would probably be the more sensible area to consider, especially because the 200-day line is still rising.
The upside case is much less convincing. In the unlikely event of an end-of-day close back above the 50-day moving average at 4,730, the market could then recover towards the top of the falling trend channel from January, with 4,900 as the best-case target.
WTI crude oil: the market that matters most right now
WTI crude oil is the market with the strongest influence on everything else at present, and it is firmly on the front foot.
Price found support almost perfectly around $99.39, just above the $99 area, and bounced before any deeper pullback towards the 50-day moving average could develop. That is a bullish sign in itself.
The next trigger is a break above Wednesday’s resistance at $103.67. If that gives way, the chart points to a fairly direct move towards $110 over the next few sessions.
There is also a separate line of resistance around $105, which looks like the big level for crude right now. Clear that properly, and the bigger upside opens up.
On a best-case basis, the top of the current channel is pointing as high as $140 by the end of next month. That is obviously the bullish stretch target, but the technical backdrop is undeniably strong, especially with the RSI rebounding from above 50.
Small-cap stock charts to watch
Blackbird: bear-trap reversal strengthens recovery case: Blackbird has delivered a bear-trap gap reversal, which is one of the stronger turnaround signals you can get on a chart. The key level is now 1.6p. Above that, the target becomes the top of the channel from September, which could take the shares as high as 2.6p. There is also bullish divergence on the RSI, which adds weight to the recovery idea. Only an end-of-day close back below 1.6p would delay that improving picture.
Bradda Head: still on fire: Bradda Head has been one of the stronger performers this month. The second target at 3.1p has been in focus, and above that the chart opens up towards the 5p area, which corresponds to the old summer 2023 resistance.
Cindrigo Holdings: financing overhang clearing, 200-day line in sight: Cindrigo looks better now that recent financing concerns are behind it. The chart is pushing above the first target and is now heading towards the 200-day moving average at 9.45p. The hope is that this can be reached within the next couple of weeks or before month end. If momentum continues, the best-case target by the end of next month is around 12p, provided the shares hold above the former breakout level at 7p.
Great Western Mining: one of the recoveries of the year: Great Western Mining has been one of the standout recovery charts. The shares are edging towards the next target around 6.25p, and that remains the objective for the end of this month while the price stays above the previous December resistance line at 5p.
ImmuPharma: early move, but the chart is waking up: ImmuPharma may be a little early, but not necessarily too early. The stock has broken recent resistance around 4.3p, and above that the next target is the 50-day moving average at 5p. Even if there is a near-term pullback, the chart suggests the shares may be anticipating news. The recent price behaviour certainly looks as though something could be in the pipeline.
Iconic Labs: high risk, high volatility, clear trigger level: Iconic Labs remains very volatile and certainly not one for widows and orphans, but the technical setup is easy enough to define. The shares still need to break through the 200-day moving average at 2.25p. If they can do that soon, the chart could target as high as 5p by the end of the month. The line in the sand on the downside is the rising 50-day moving average at 1.68p. Lose that, and the move starts to look more like a false dawn.
Kendrick: still stretching higher after fresh news: Kendrick has had news support and the shares continue to race ahead. The key call this week has been that above 8p, the price could head towards 12.5p, which is based on a March resistance line projection. For the bullish case to remain intact, ideally the stock now holds above the latest gap floor around 7.4p. It is a punchy target, but the chart is behaving as though it can still deliver it.
Metals One: strong breakout after announcement: Metals One responded strongly to a decent announcement, with the shares nearly doubling. The stock has broken through post-March resistance at 1.97p. Above that, the chart points towards the top of the triangle around 2.5p. Given how close price already is to that target, the 200-day moving average at 2.75p also comes into view as a possible extension. Above the 2.3p zone, those higher targets become increasingly realistic over the coming days.
Pantheon: finally responding to the oil move: With crude oil pushing higher, Pantheon is finally starting to respond. The stock is on the verge of breaking major recent resistance around 12.5p. If that break is confirmed, the next target is 16p by next month.
Panther: gap breakout in play. Panther has a larger bullish narrative around it, but from a charting perspective the immediate setup is this: while the shares remain above the top of the gap at 117p, the target is 180p by the end of next month. At around 130p, that still leaves decent room if the move follows through.
Zanaga: recovery already underway, now needs to hold above 8p: Zanaga has already begun its recovery move. The top of the channel target at 8.8p has effectively been reached, and the next level of interest is 10p, which matches old summer 2024 resistance. The important issue now is support. Ideally, the shares hold at or above the old October resistance at 8.2p on an end-of-day closing basis. If that proves too tight, then the 2026 peak around 7.7p may offer support instead. Realistically though, bulls will want the stock to stay on the right side of 8p to avoid this turning into a bull trap.
Final chart takeaway
The main message from the current market setup is that oil is setting the tone. As long as crude remains strong and pushes through the 105 to 110 area, it is hard to see the FTSE and DAX doing much more than struggle with resistance and drift lower towards support.
The Dow still looks the healthiest among the major indices. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both at important inflection points, with Bitcoin in the stronger position of the two. Gold looks vulnerable unless it can recover its 50-day moving average quickly.
Among the smaller stocks, there are still some very lively charting opportunities, particularly where breakouts are being backed by strong momentum, recovery structures, or news flow.
For now, the charts are not short of action. They are just becoming much more selective.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
