SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Friday 15th May 2026

Gold pulls back as US Treasuries slump on elevated inflation concerns

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Cornish Metals* (TIN LN) – Main shareholders provide credit facilities

Elemental Royalty Corp (ELE CN) – $239m acquisition of Panuco royalty to boost exposure to silver

Kendrick Resources (KEN LN) – Exploration results from the TK Rare Earth Project, Namibia

Largo Inc (LGO CN) – Quarterly results as operations improve but revenue hit by US tariffs

Resolute Mining (RSG LN) – Application of Inferred resource rejected by ASX for use in ABC project Scoping Study

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) – Geophysics results from Botswana support future drill testing

Zinnwald Lithium (ZNWD LN) – £57m AMG recommended offer

Gold ($4,555/oz) pulls back as US Treasuries slump on elevated inflation concerns

• Gold prices fell 2.1% overnight, as US Treasury yields continue to march higher.
• Silver is down 8% as the wider metal markets sells off, with the dollar tracking US Treasury yields higher.
• The US 10 year has jumped sharply over the past 24 hours, hitting December 2024 highs.
• Two sets of hot inflation readings came out in the US this week, with both PPI and CPI numbers causing concerns over a return to rate hikes.
• The dollar index has climbed over 99 again, up 1.4% over the past week and causing a wider sell-off in the metals sector over the past 24 hours.
• In China, Bloomberg reports SF Holding, the Country’s largest express-delivery firm, is planning to open a gold vault in Hong Kong as the city builds out its precious metals trading hub.
• Gold is becoming increasingly mainstream with Chinese retail traders, while the Central Bank continues to bolster their foreign reserve allocation to gold.
• In India, the Modi government tightened rules for duty-free gold imports for jewellery exports yesterday, having raised import tariffs on gold and silver earlier in the week.
• India is aiming to reduce overseas gold purchases to ease FX pressure mounting from elevated crude prices.

Copper (13,589/t) pulls back on wider metals sell-off as dollar jumps

• Copper prices, which enjoyed a c.10% rally over the past month, have pared gains amid increased metal volatility.
• The metal is down 2.9% on the LME and 4.4% on COMEX this morning.
• Part of copper’s recent rally was driven by renewed tariff expectations from the White House.
• This drove up US premiums and drew copper out of LME warehouses.
• Copper has also enjoyed more speculative flows from traders looking for alternative ways to play the AI data center trade.
• The wider market is selling off this morning over higher US Treasury yields, weighing on recent winners such as copper.
• Zooming out, the copper supply-demand balance remains tight with deficits looming.
• Added supply pressure came from recent production downgrades from major operations Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula.
• Both Ivanhoe and Freeport have delayed respective return to nameplate capacity following the two major incidents last year.
• Copper supply may also become constrained owing to elevated sulphuric acid prices, with sulphur exports restricted amid the ongoing shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz.
• C.20% of global copper supply is provided by SX-EW operations, which may become constrained by access to key inputs.
• While short term volatility is expected in the current market, which has seen strong rallies followed by sharp pull-backs, the long-term outlook for copper remains strong.
• Grade decline continues and CAPEX pressure is expected to accelerate again, with the pipeline of large-scale, high-margin copper projects constrained.

Oil rises towards $110/bbl (Brent) on lack of resolution for reopening of Strait of Hormuz

• Trump reported plans to sell more US oil to China following visit to China
• The move suggests longer term disruption for vessels trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7

Currencies

US$1.1642/eur vs 1.1711/eur previous. Yen 158.37/$ vs 157.92/$. SAr 16.612/$ vs 16.401/$. $1.337/gbp vs $1.352/gbp. 0.717/aud vs 0.726/aud

CNY 6.803/$ vs 6.787/$. Dollar Index 99.07 vs 98.50 previous

Economics

US – US Dollar gains following Trump visit to China where China has pledged to buy 200 Boeing aircraft

• Fed Governor Barr commented against shrinking the Fed balance sheet. The comment raised the US 2-year bond yield to its highest since Jun ’25

• CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper says Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are now cut off from Iranian weapons supply and support following months of careful planning.

US House of Representatives rejects War Powers Act proposal designed to halt Trump’s military action without congressional approval

• The Senate also rejected a similar proposal.
• Trump signalling the US may attack Iran and reverse Iran’s military recovery
• The US Secretary of State confirmed the US and China are aligned against militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz and against Iranian tolls

China – China has pledged not to transfer military equipment to Tehran.

Saudi Arabia – reported to be discussing a regional non-aggression framework involving Iran (FT)

• European nations swing behind idea discussed with Riyadh to model agreement on 1970s Helsinki process.
• Iran’s neighbours are concerned they will be left to manage a more hostile and aggressive Iran once the US has withdrawn forces from the region.
• We suspect Iran will continue to sow discontent to overthrow the current rulers of local Kingdoms, Emirates and Sultanates.

Iran – Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated “The Strait of Hormuz is open for anyone that isn’t an enemy. You just need to pay the tolls.”

• Mr Araghchi also warned the UAE over ties with Israel during war,
  • “Enmity with the Great People of Iran is a foolish gamble. Collusion with Israel in doing so: unforgivable. Those colluding with Israel to sow division will be held to account.”
  • “The UAE was directly involved in the aggression against Iran. Neither the U.S. military presence nor ties with Israel protected you — reconsider your policy toward Iran.”

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,577/oz vs US$4,706/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.9moz vs 98.8moz previous

Platinum US$2,009/oz vs US$2,132/oz previous

Palladium US$1,430/oz vs US$1,501/oz previous

Silver US$79.1/oz vs US$87.3/oz previous

Silver ETFs 795.4moz vs 794.1moz previous

Rhodium US$9,975/oz vs US$9,975/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,653/t vs US$13,948/t previous

Aluminium US$3,598/t vs US$3,644/t previous

Nickel US$18,645/t vs US$18,870/t previous

Zinc US$3,521/t vs US$3,570/t previous

Lead US$1,997/t vs US$2,007/t previous

Tin US$52,500/t vs US$55,115/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$107.2/bbl vs US$105.9/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged higher as US President Trump warned Iran that his patience was running out with regard to the ongoing effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• OPEC’s May oil market report now forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.2mb/d and 1.5mb/d in 2026 and 2027, reflecting 0.2mb/d being moved into next year from April’s estimates, with OPEC+ crude oil supply down by another 1.7mb/d m/m (-9.5mb/d) and no changes to non-OPEC+ supply growth of 0.6mb/d expected in both years.
• Henry Hub prices also edged higher as the EIA reported a lower-than-normal 85bcf w/w storage build to 2,290bcf, with US inventories now 2% above last year’s level and 7% above the five-year average as LNG export capacity rose 26bcf w/w to 141bcf based on the 37 LNG vessels departing US ports.

Natural Gas €48.7/MWh vs €46.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.0/lb vs $85.8/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$109.1/t vs US$110.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$487.2/t vs US$487.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$239.0/t vs US$238.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$133.5/t vs US$133.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$112,449/t vs US$111,609/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$27,561/t vs US$27,626/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,810/t vs US$2,840/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,903/mtu vs US$1,973/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$198/lb vs US$198/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$6.0/lb vs US$5.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$246/t vs US$247/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,154/t vs US$1,157/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,725.0/kg vs US$3,625.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$30.5/lb vs US$30.5/lb

EV & Battery new:

Can SoftBank’s Zinc-Halogen batteries challenge LFP for BESS in AI data centres?

• SoftBank is launching a new battery business focused on powering AI data centres, targeting the massive increase in electricity demand driven by AI workloads and hyperscale computing.
• The company is developing next-gen zinc-halogen batteries in partnership with South Korean firms COSMOS LAB and DeltaX.
• The batteries use water-based electrolytes instead of flammable organic solvents used in lithium-ion batteries, significantly reducing fire and thermal runaway risks.
• SoftBank claims the batteries achieve energy density comparable to lithium-ion batteries while maintaining the safety advantages.
• The batteries are being positioned as a challenger to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for stationary energy storage, particularly in AI data centres where power loads fluctuate rapidly and require highly responsive energy systems.
• Compared with LFP batteries, zinc-halogen systems offer several advantages for grid and data centre use: lower fire risk, easier scalability, longer durability in long-duration storage applications, and reduced dependence on critical minerals like lithium.
• Despite the advantages, zinc-halogen batteries still face technical challenges, particularly corrosion caused by bromine chemistry, which requires specialised materials and system designs to ensure long-term reliability.
• The technology also improves supply-chain resilience for Japan because the key raw materials, including zinc and halogen compounds, can be sourced domestically rather than relying on imported lithium supply chains.
• SoftBank plans to begin mass production by 2027 and scale output to gigawatt-hour levels by 2028 at its Sakai City facility in Osaka.

Company news:

Cornish Metals* (TIN LN) 101p, Mkt cap £127m – Main shareholders provide credit facilities

• Following its recently announced US$210m bond issue which secures the debt component of the finance needed for the resumption of tin production at its South Crofty mine in Cornwall Cornish Metals reports that its principal shareholders, the National Wealth Fund and Vision Blue Resources have agreed credit facilities totalling up to ~£52m.
• The National Wealth Fund, which owns 28.45% of Cornish Metals, is providing £35m of the principal with Vision Blue (29.08%) providing £22.75m.
• The facilities, which are subject to an arrangement fee of 1.65% and are secured by “Fixed and floating charges over assets of the Borrower and Guarantors except mineral titles and assets in the UK which are already pledged as security”, will support:
  • Escrow facilities of “Up to approximately £16 million … in connection with the Bonds and is to be funded as a condition to issuance of the Bonds” as well as
  • “for underground mine development and shaft refurbishment”; and
  • “for surface facilities and infrastructure” and
  • “general operating and corporate purposes”.
• An initial tranche comprising £21.1m (NWF) and £13.7m (Vision Blue) is committed with a second tranche of £13.9m (NWF) and £9.05m (Vision Blue) can be “requested by the Company if required and made available at the Lenders’ discretion”.
• Noting that the provision of the facilities “signals NWF’s and Vision Blue’s continued support for Cornish Metals and our goal to restart tin mining in Cornwall … [CEO, Don Turvey, said that they should facilitate progress towards] … the final investment decision for the South Crofty project while continuing to advance and derisk the project by maintaining the high level of activities across site”.
• He also commented on interest from strategic off-takers, and “institutional investors, interested in financing the development of South Crofty”.

Conclusion: Credit facilities from the main shareholders as well as Cornish Metals’ recent bond issue secures the debt financing for the resumption of tin production at South Crofty and maintains the project’s momentum ahead of a final investment decision expected in the coming months.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad. An SP Angel analyst formerly worked in the South Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals

Elemental Royalty Corp (ELE CN) C$25.7, Mkt Cap C$1.65bn – $239m acquisition of Panuco royalty to boost exposure to silver

• Elemental Royalty has agreed to acquire Vizsla Royalties.
• Vizsla shareholders can elect to receive either 0.15 common shares in Elemental, C$4.13 in cash or a combination.
• The transaction implies a fully diluted equity value for Vizsla of $239m and a 22% premium to the 20-day VWAP.
• Vizsla holds a royalty over the Panuco Project in Mexico, operated by Vizsla Silver Corp.
• The Panuco royalties comprise a 3.5% NSR from the Silverstone concessions and a 2% NSR over the Rio Panuco concessions.
• The Project expects first silver production in 2H27.
• The 2025 Panuco DFS outlined:
  • 9.4 year LOM
  • Processing average LOM feed grades of 249g/t Ag and 2.01g/t Au.
  • 17.4mozpa LOM average payable AgEq
  • 20.1mozpa over first five years
• Elemental sees Panuco as being a top three asset in their portfolio, with the project fully financed for construction.
• Elemental expects Panuco to add 7,500kozpa AuEq to its royalty portfolio once in production.

Kendrick Resources (KEN LN) 8p, Mkt Cap £28m – Exploration results from the TK Rare Earth Project, Namibia

• The Company reports initial results from the ongoing drilling and sampling programme at the Teufelskuppe Rare Earth Project (TK) in Namibia.
• Preliminary TKDD003 results (pXRF) returned a series of higher grade intersections including:
  • 6.5m at 3.25% TREO from 2m
  • 4.3m at 3.15% TREO from 34m
  • 3.8m at 4.94% TREO from 43m
  • 12m at 3.95% TREO from 56m
• The hole is located at TK2, ~200m NW of TK1A.
• Historic drilling at TK1A ended in mineralisation at a grade of 6.1% TREO.
• Comprehensive laboratory testing and petrology studies have been initiated
• Additionally, a channel sampling (~10cm deep/5cm wide) of outcropping carbonatite bodies is ongoing.
• Surface sampling across TK1 to TK7 confirms strong average TREO grade of 3.12 % from 295 samples.
• Drilling is being conducted at TK2, targeting depth continuity beneath one of several prominent carbonatite bodies.
• Sampling and drilling data will be used to compile maiden MRE for both TK and Kieshöhe (KH) projects.
• The Company has an inhouse MRE estimate for 14mt at TK.

Largo Inc (LGO CN) C$1.38, Mkt Cap C$139m – Quarterly results as operations improve but revenue hit by US tariffs

• Largo reports financial results for 1Q26.
• The Company mined 852kt ore at 0.48%, up 91% and 17% respectively year on year.
• V2O5 equivalent production increased 102%yoy to 2.6kt, whilst ilmenite production increased 33%.
• Production came in the upper end of quarterly guidance as stability improves at the Maracas Menchen plant.
• V2O5 sales increased 4%yoy to 2.1kt.
• Revenue generated at $27.5m, while operating costs reported at $34.5m.
• Adj. EBITDA reported at -$4.3m.
• Cash stood at $11.2m and debt increased 1.2%yoy to $108m.
• Company notes the impact of US tariffs on Brazilian products hitting revenue over 1Q26, before being reduced from 50% to 10%.
• Company notes improving cash operating costs of $4.27/lb over the quarter on better mine performance and no kiln/plant stoppages over the quarter.
• On the vanadium market, Largo notes positive trends, with a focus on supplying into the high-purity market including the aerospace sector.
• Management expects a better 2Q26 on sales timings and rebalancing in the US ferrovanadium market.

Resolute Mining (RSG LN) 69p, Mkt Cap £1,496m – Application of Inferred resource rejected by ASX for use in ABC project Scoping Study

• Resolute Mining have been forced into the embarrassing position of retracting the publication of a Scoping Study based on an ‘Inferred’ mineral resource.
• Inferred represents the lowest level of confidence in the mineral resource estimate under the JORC code with around 50-70% of ‘inferred’ resources generally upgrading to the ‘Indicated’ resource category in JORC reports on further drilling and estimation.
• These days the JORC code includes economic parameters to help give readers confidence in the economic potential of the project in question.
• We note Resolute presents a significant amount of drilling for the JORC inferred resource and is busy with drill infilling to upgrade the resource.
• A total of 388 drill holes covering 57,344m of RC and diamond drilling at the Kona between 2017 and 2020 suggests the resource is relatively well defined
• Drill spacing at Kona South and Kona Central is on 50m spaced sections with drilling on each section at 25-50m spacing
• The Scoping Study is based on a 2021 ‘Inferred’ resource estimate of 72mt at an average grade of 0.93g/t gold in the Kona South and Kona Central deposits for 2.2moz of contained gold.
• The study sees relatively shallow open pits mining providing around 7mtpa of ore to produce around 141kozpa over a mine life of 12 years.
• The Geology and Mineral Resources section from P32 of the ABC Project Scoping Study describes an average thickness of the mineralisation of ~100m at Kona South
  • “with well-developed mineralisation occurring for a strike length of approximately 1.0 km.
  • At “Kona Central the mineralised zone is often much wider but with a lower grade tenor and currently drill defined over a strike extent of 1.6 km.
  • The gold mineralisation has a close spatial relationship with arsenopyrite with the presence of arsenopyrite nominally corresponding to the presence of gold.
  • Arsenopyrite occurs as disseminated grains and aggregates within the psammitic host, usually aligned to the foliation. The rock is strongly silicified within the mineralized zones; but quartz veining is rare to absent and not an important control to mineralisation”
• The simpler the project the greater the confidence in upgrading the mineral resource from inferred into indicated and measured categories.
• Assumption: gold at US$3,500/oz
  • Capex is US$648m
  • NPV_5% post tax – US$1,178m
  • IRR 39%
  • Total gold production of 1.7moz for the life of mine
  • Cash cost – US$1,493/oz
  • AISC – US$1,565/oz
  • Payback – 1.4 years
• At US$4,500/oz gold the NPV_5% increases to US$2,036m while using a 10% discount rate generates an after-tax NPV of US$782m at US$3,500/oz or an NPV of US$1,425m at the US$4,500/oz gold price.

Conclusion: The ASX rules are in place to prevent less honourable promoters from publishing economic reports based on less-than-rigorous geological studies.

While it is difficult for the ASX to adjust its rules for specific we feel the ABC Project Scoping Study looks well founded and we look forward to the updated JORC MRE in the second half.

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) 27p, Mkt Cap £9.4m – Geophysics results from Botswana support future drill testing

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• Serval Resources, the Namibian and Botswana focused copper explorer, reports geophysics results from their Botswanan prospects.
• Serval has conducted ground-based magnetics, TDEM and AMT surveys over the PL082 and Pl231 licence blocks.
• The programme aimed to boost the team’s understanding of the thickness of sand cover overlying the copper-silver prospective target units.
• Additionally, by completing various geophysical surveys, the Company has aimed to refine their targeting approach as they aim to test key target horizons before drilling.
• Survey results are also aimed to corroborate larger scale regional geophysics data.
• At PL082, which lies on strike to Cobre’s Ngami project, management has identified clear areas of increased conductivity and resistivity, which suggest the potential for target Ngwako pan and d’Kar formation contact.
• Clear zones of more resistive units at PL082 will be the target of future exploration, while further work is required to gauge the depth to bedrock.
• At PL231, the Company has successfully identified interpreted anticlinal structures and notes it has gained an improved understanding of the variation in depth of sand cover.
• Most encouraging is the identification of an anticlinal structure to the north of the licence at Pl231, with these structures known to form structural traps for mineralisation in the Kalahari Copper Belt.
• The depth to bedrock at Pl231 is considered to increase from c.20m in the north to 90m in the south.
• Going forward, Serval will conduct more extensive ground based magnetic field work to firm up their understanding of the structural geology at the prospect.

Conclusion: Serval is conducting fundamental work on its Kalahari Copper Belt licences following their successful acquisition earlier this year. Through a variety of geophysical surveys, Serval is strengthening their targeting process for potential areas of copper-silver mineralisation within the prolific metallogenic belt. Focus is on delineating high-priority drill targets, with the Company now funded to drill in Botswana.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Serval

Zinnwald Lithium (ZNWD LN) 8.3p, Mkt Cap £45m – £57m AMG recommended offer

• AMG Critical Materials agreed to acquire Zinnwald Lithium in a ~£57m recommended cash and share deal.
• AMG Lithium, a wholly owned subsidiary of AMG, is offering ~10p per share comprised of:
  • 5p cash
  • 0.001577 new AMG shares
• The offer price implies a >60% premium to the last close price and ~70% to the 30d VWAP.
• Zinnwald shareholders to own 1.8% in AMG post transaction.
• AMG first invested in the Company in 2023 and is currently the largest shareholder with a 29%
• Following the transaction, AMG plans to advance technical and engineering studies for the project.
• The plan is to follow a phased development approach starting of with a smaller scale initial scope to progressively de-risk the project.
• The deal is expected to get completed 3Q26.
• Zinnwald Lithium Project (100% ZNWD) is a PFS stage hardrock lithium deposit (mica) located in Zaxony, Germany.
• The mineralisation crosses the German-Czech border with European Metals Holdings holding licenses covering the Czech part of the orebody (Cinovec Project ~7.5mt LCE @0.40% Li2O MRE)
• The 2025 PFS envisaged a phased development of the underground operation:
  • Underground decline access
  • Phase 1 ~1.5mtpa/18ktpa LHM
  • Phase 2 ~3.5mtpa/35ktpa LHM
  • Integrated operation for production of battery grade LHM
  • 41y LOM
  • Phase 1 Development Cost €1.0bn
  • Phase 2 Development Cost ~€650bn
  • Sustaining Cost €820m
  • C1 Cash Costs ~€8,400/LHM
  • Price ~€26,300/LHM (~$30,500/LHM)
  • Post Tax NPV8 and IRR €2.2bn and ~20%
  • 5y pay back
  • PP 128mt at 0.44% Li2O 1.4mt LCE
  • MRE 227mt 0.48% Li2O 2.7mt LCE

Conclusion: AMG is acquiring a large mica hosted lithium project at a fraction of PFS NPV with a view to progressively derisk the project examining staged development. While the acquisition price (~$75m) represents <5% of modelled NPV and is ~$30/LCE in-situ (vs ~$300/LCE Zheijang/Atlantic offer), we would also recommend ZNWD shareholders accept the offer given the project’s low grade nature (and underground development plan), complicated metallurgy and high upfront capital cost.

SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

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No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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