Traders on the prediction market Polymarket are increasingly positioning for further weakness in oil prices this month, after crude retreated to levels last seen before the conflict in Iran.
In a market tracking, where West Texas Intermediate (WTI) could trade during July, participants assign a 24% probability that the US benchmark falls to $60 per barrel—its lowest level since late January, prior to the Middle East escalation that lifted prices above $120 per barrel.
The $60 threshold has attracted the largest volume of wagers, with more than $85,000 committed, indicating that many traders view an extended decline as a credible scenario. The most probable outcome remains a move to $65, implied at 63%, with WTI currently around $68.
By contrast, the market reflects limited expectations for a rebound, assigning a 15% chance of a return to $80 and just a 7% probability of reaching $85. Those upside odds have fallen sharply in recent sessions, consistent with reduced concerns about supply disruption.
Oil prices have declined for three straight sessions as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for global oil flows—continues to normalize. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly restored exports close to pre-conflict levels, lifting transit volumes through the strait back above 10 million barrels per day.
President Donald Trump also said this week that negotiations with Iran were progressing following mediated talks in Doha.
