Gold continues rebound as weaker US job report weighs on dollar
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Agnico Eagle (AEM US) – Rock mass movement at Canadian Malartic Complex
Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) – Strong production and cash build as focus shifts to Magnetic
Rome Resources (RMR LN) – Kalayi drilling underpin July 2026 MRE upgrade
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Mineralisation intersected in the underlying granite at Redmoor as Cornwall County Council approves expansion of drilling
Talga Group (TLG AU) – Stock jumps 33% as Talnode graphite product delivered
Gold ($4,174/oz) continues rebound as weaker US job report weighs on dollar
- Gold prices have risen >$200/oz from last week’s lows, rising 1.2% this morning to $4,174/oz.
- The move comes following a reversal of the recent dollar rally, supported by reduced hawkish comments from Fed chair Warsh.
- The dollar fell again yesterday after US NFP labour data came below expectations, lifting yields but hitting the dollar.
- The dollar has been gold’s major headwind over the past month, with a rally pushing gold to ytd lows.
- The wider precious metals spectrum was also hit, with silver and PGMs sliding.
- Silver is up 3.2% this morning, while platinum has rallied 2.45%.
- We suspect a combination of sustained central bank buying and a continued downtrend in the dollar will be required to test record highs in gold prices again.
Iron Ore – Australia warns China’s state buyer could push prices down
- Australia says China’s state buyer, CMRG ‘China Mineral Resources Group’, could drag the iron ore price down over the next few years.
- China set up CMRG in 2022 to pool its steel mills’ buying power and press suppliers like BHP and Rio Tinto.
- It has told some mills to skip certain Fortescue cargoes, part of a push to change how ore is priced.
- The risk matters to Australia, as China buys about three-quarters of the world’s seaborne ore; the price sits near $98.5/t.
Nickel – Nickel Industries starts its ENC battery-nickel plant, with sulphur stocked to September
- Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC) will make its first battery-grade nickel at its new ENC ‘Excelsior Nickel Cobalt’ plant in July.
- The plant makes MHP ‘mixed hydroxide precipitate’, the half-processed nickel used in EV batteries, and aims for full output of 72,000t a year by October.
- It bought sulphur, a key input, cheaply at $450/t before prices jumped past $1,000/t, enough to last to end-September.
- In a first, some of its nickel will go to SpaceX rockets, through a 10-year deal with a Korean partner.
Aluminium – price slides to a multi-month low as Gulf supply may return
- Aluminium fell below $3,100/t, its lowest since February, after a drop of about 16% in June.
- The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ‘the Gulf shipping lane for oil and metal’ has raised the chance of Gulf supply coming back.
- A stronger dollar and likely US rate hikes are adding pressure, along with more output from China and Indonesia.
- Analysts still see limited downside longer term, as China nears its output cap and demand stays firm.
Coal mine gas explosion in China: https://www.itv.com/news/2026-05-23/at-least-82-killed-in-coal-mine-gas-explosion-in-china-local-media-reports
Guardian Metal Resources – Tungsten & Pilot Mountain mine : https://invest.investorshub.com/innovationreport/
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.14% | at | 52,900 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.47% | at | 69,744 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +1.27% | at | 23,348 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.37% | at | 4,044 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | – | at | 4.48 |
Currencies
US$1.1450/eur vs1.1405/eur previous.Yen 160.92/$ vs 162.13/$.SAr 16.205/$ vs16.411/$.$1.337/gbp vs$1.324/gbp.0.694/aud vs 0.688/aud.CNY 6.784/$ vs 6.784/$.
Dollar Index 100.71 vs101.24 previous.
Economics
US – Markets are shut today for the long 4th of July weekend.
- Nasdaq futures up nearly 1% in holiday trading rebounding following a selloff in chipmakers.
- Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX) was down 11% over the last two days.
- Focus turns to 2Q earnings results as the market assess sustainability of a rally in AI infrastructure related stocks.
June payrolls come in below forecasts with investors lowering their expectations for a rate hike this year.
- Odds of a hike in September gone down from ~80% to just over 60%.
- US$ index sold off helping precious metals higher with gold up more than $100/oz post announcement.
- NFPs (‘000, Jun / May / Est): 57k / 129k (revised from 172k) / 113k
- Unemployment Rate (Jun / May / Est): 4.2 / 4.3 / 4.3
- Av Hourly Earnings (%yoy, Jun / May / Est): 3.5 / 3.4 / 3.5
China – Private sector PMIs point to a slight slowdown in growth momentum in June.
- Nevertheless, composite measure covering both manufacturing and services sectors expanded at one of the fastest rates in three years.
- New business increased for the 13th month.
- Employment climbed for the second successive month, the first back to back increase since mid-2023.
- Input price inflation eased to a five month low.
- RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (released earlier, Jun / May / Est): 51.7 / 51.8 / 52.0
- RatingDog Services PMI (Jun / May / Est): 54.1 / 54.4 / 53.0
- RatingDog Composite PMI (Jun / May / Est): 53.6 /54.0 / NA
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,177/oz vsUS$4,070/oz previous
Gold ETFs 96.7moz vs96.7moz previous
Platinum US$1,666/oz vsUS$1,617/oz previous
Palladium US$1,283/oz vsUS$1,226/oz previous
Silver US$62.7/oz vsUS$59.9/oz previous
Silver ETFs 783.0moz vs783.0moz previous
Rhodium US$8,100/oz vsUS$7,900/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,413/t vs US$13,217/t previous
Aluminium US$3,110/t vsUS$3,059/t previous
Nickel US$16,465/t vsUS$16,215/t previous
Zinc US$3,520/t vsUS$3,446/t previous
Lead US$1,891/t vsUS$1,864/t previous
Tin US$52,310/t vsUS$50,950/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$71.9/bbl vsUS$70.6/bbl previous
Natural Gas €44.2/MWh vs€43.6/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.1/lb vs$85.9/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$97.6/t vsUS$98.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$475.3/t vsUS$476.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$242.0/t vsUS$242.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$128.8/t vsUS$129.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vsUS$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$110,918/t vsUS$110,152/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$22,626/t vsUS$22,030/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,245/t vsUS$2,245/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vsUS$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vsUS$1,705/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$226/lb vsUS$226/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vsUS$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vsUS$5.7/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vsUS$27.0/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$219/t vs US$219/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vsUS$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,157/t vsUS$1,157/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vsUS$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vsUS$400.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vsUS$4,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$410.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.5/lb vsUS$31.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
BYD’s nickel-free battery challenges Indonesia’s nickel plan
- Asia Times, in an opinion piece, says BYD’s new nickel-free SUV, with 150,000 orders in under two months, shows top EVs no longer need nickel.
- The car uses an LMFP ‘lithium manganese iron phosphate’ battery, which drops nickel and cobalt but still gives long range.
- Asia Times argues this weakens Indonesia’s hope of using its nickel as a bargaining chip over the EV supply chain.
- As a sign of nerves, it notes foreign investors are pulling back, sending the rupiah to a record low past 18,000 per dollar.
Company news:
Agnico Eagle (AEM US) $154, Mkt Cap $77bn – Rock mass movement at Canadian Malartic Complex
- Agnico Eagle provided an update on their flagship Canadian Malartic complex in Canada.
- The Barnat open pit saw a rock mass movement this week, causing the suspension of operations.
- Agnico is now conducting a geological assessment to assess the stability of the area.
- The Malartic processing plant will be supplied by low-grade ore from existing stockpiles from the Barnat pit.
- The Company expects reduction of output of 60-80koz Au in 2H26, taking production towards the lower end of the 3.3-3.5moz guidance range.
- The event is expected to reduce production by 150koz in 2027 and 2028.
- Agnico retains its guidance of 1mozpa from Canadian Malartic in the early 2030s.
Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) A$6.3, Mkt Cap A$7.4bn – Strong production and cash build as focus shifts to Magnetic
- Australian gold producer Genesis reports June quarter production data.
- FY26 production rose to 285.4koz, towards the upper range of guidance of 260-290koz.
- Cash build reported at A$258m, bringing cash position to A$520m.
- The Company completed the acquisition of Magnetic for A$247m and invested A$78m in growth and exploration.
- Genesis has increased its exploration budget to A$80-90m to focus on drilling at the Magnetic deposits.
Rome Resources (RMR LN) 0.34p, Mkt Cap £26m – Kalayi drilling underpin July 2026 MRE upgrade
- The Company released final assay results from the recent drilling programme at the Kalayi deposit within the Bisie North Project in eastern DRC.
- Highlight intersections from holes KBDD019 to KBDD034 include:
- KBDD025: 9.5m at 2.05% Sn from 60.0m, including 6.0m at 3.12% Sn including 3.0m at 5.66% Sn
- KBDD033: 19.5m at 0.52% Sn from 144.0m, including 1.0m at 3.23% Sn and 1.0m at 2.87% Sn
- KBDD034: 5.0m at 1.88% Sn from 225.0m, including 1.5m at 4.77% Sn
- KBDD029: 6.5m at 0.97% Sn from 220.0m, including 1.5m at 3.24% Sn
- The campaign delivered wider mineralised zones than prior drilling while retaining high-grade tin intervals.
- The programme was targeted at improving geological continuity and growing the resource.
- Results are expected to expand the existing MRE (0.3mt at 1.36% Sn for ~4kt Sn, November 2025).
- MRE update is due July 2026.
- The pilot mining project and airborne geophysical survey advance in parallel, with the pilot supporting conversion of the Small Scale Exploitation Permit into a full Mining Licence potentially.
- The Bisie North Project comprises two deposits including polymetallic predominantly copper Mont Agoma (3.2mt at 1.45% Cu, 0.19% Sn, 2.72% Zn and 14.3g/t Ag in Inferred) and near surface higher grade tin Kapayi (0.3mt at 1.36% Sn for ~4kt Sn in Inferred).
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 4.15p, Mkt Cap £120m – Mineralisation intersected in the underlying granite at Redmoor as Cornwall County Council approves expansion of drilling
- Strategic Minerals confirms Cornwall County Council’s approval of planning permission to expand its drilling programme at its Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper Project in Cornwall.
- The permission allows the deployment of two additional drilling rigs and the “option to add a further drill rig to the programme later in the year, to further accelerate the programme”.
- The company says that the expanded drilling campaign will comprise 22,500m in “at least 44 drillholes, including infill drilling of the existing Resource … [and testing of] … the Exploration Target … [and that it believes it is] … the largest, continuous, diamond drilling programme to be undertaken in Cornwall … [and] … the largest, single, drilling programme undertaken in Great Britain this century”.
- Strategic Minerals also takes the opportunity to confirm the completion of hole CRD-044 at 526.10m depth “having intersected the full thickness of the Redmoor Sheeted Vein System (“SVS”), and having intersected the Kit Hill granite at depth, with the intersection of a mineralised granite roof zone”.
- Grades have yet to be determined but the granite-hosted mineralisation “includes … [the copper mineral] … chalcopyrite and … [the tin mineral] … cassiterite mineralised vein structures within aplitic sheets in the upper 30 m of the granite body”.
- In our opinion, this initial confirmation of mineralisation within the underlying granite at Redmoor offers additional mineral resource expansion potential at depth. Although this potential will need further exploration to verify the continuity, grade and scale of the opportunity it illustrates the growing opportunity at Redmoor.
- Following completion of hole CRD-044, Strategic Minerals is drilling a ‘daughter hole’ CRD-044D1, from a downhole depth of 195m, with the objective of collecting “metallurgical samples for the pre-feasibility/feasibility study stage of metallurgical testwork”.
- Dennis Rowland, Managing Director of the operating company, Cornwall Resources, welcomed the Planning Permission to expand the drilling to a three-rig programme “as soon as possible”.
- He also welcomed the intersection of granite hosted mineralisation in hole CRD-044 and commented that it supports “the hypothesis that the mineralisation continues at depth into the granite”.
- Strategic Minerals’ Executive Director, Mark Burnett, said that “We are delighted to have received the necessary planning approvals to commence the largest continuous diamond drilling campaign ever undertaken in Cornwall, and which we believe is the largest, single, drilling programme delivered in Great Britain this century”.
Conclusion The award of Planning Permission opens the way to deploy additional drilling rigs at Redmoor accelerating the infill and expansion drilling programme for the PFS. The intersection of mineralisation within the granite underlying the current MRE at Redmoor offers additional resource expansion potential, subject to confirmation of the continuity, grade and scale of the mineralisation.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals
Talga Group (TLG AU) A$0.28, Mkt Cap A$140m – Stock jumps 33% as Talnode graphite product delivered
- Graphite-focused group Talga provides an update on its Talnode product.
- The Company has now made the first shipment from the EVA demonstration plant to Nyobolt.
- Talga is now planning to build a commercial-scale anode plant in the region with construction due to begin in 2027.
- Nyobolt is building ultra-fast-charging battery systems and sees Talnode as a qualified feedstock for its battery anode technology.
- Nyobolt is backed by Scania and AI-enabled warehouse robot maker Symbotic,
- Talga shares rose 33% on the news.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.7% | -0.9% | Freeport-McMoRan | -1.3% | -11.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.9% | -2.0% | Vale | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| Glencore | 2.1% | -2.6% | Newmont Mining | -1.7% | -7.2% |
| Anglo American | 2.6% | 0.3% | Fortescue | -1.9% | -0.6% |
| Antofagasta | 2.6% | 2.8% | Teck Resources | 0.0% | -8.2% |
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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