SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Tuesday 4th August 2026

Copper approaches $14,000/t as US imports and sulphuric acid supply issues tighten the market

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Bradda Head Lithium (BHL LN) – Solar agreement signed over Pennsylvania brine lease

Great Western Mining (GWMO LN) – Resource evaluation drilling at the Defender tungsten project in Nevada expected to start shortly

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) – Expansion of licenses in Greenland with evidence of gold, tungsten and sliver mineralisation

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – BUY, 4.2p – Tulu Kapi development update highlights RAP progress with debt drawdown targeted for 4Q26

Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Idaho unpatented mining claims secured

Copper ($13,964/t) approaches $14,000/t as US imports tighten the market

• Copper hit $14,050/t this morning following news that >200,000t landed at US ports in July.
• This is the largest monthly import of copper into the US since 2014
• Buyers are shipping ahead of a US tariff decision, now overdue since 30 June.
• Sulphuric acid supplies restricted by the Strait of Hormuz and China’s export ban are impacting SX-EW copper production in Chile and the DRC.
• Chile produces some ~1.8mtpa of SX-EW and with the DRC close behind at ~1.3mtpa

Gold ($4,065/oz) holds above $4,000/oz as Chinese buyers step in

• Chinese institutions are reported to be seen buying gold with new interest seen since gold pulled back to $4,000/oz. (Bloomberg).
• Bank of Korea is preparing to buy gold for the first time in 13 years starting with domestically produced bullion.

Australia gold mining boom raises wages and costs for gold miners

• A surge in the construction of new gold mines in Australia is lifting wages and costs.
• At least 10 new gold plants are being built vs the normal two to three a year.
• Ramelius Resources reports wages up 7% and building budgets up 10-15%.
• Northern Star is spending A$1.7bn to double its Super Pit plant to 27Mtpa, ready within months.
• Newmont is spending A$2.3bn at Tanami, lifting capacity from 2.6 to 3.3Mtpa.
• Ora Banda is building a A$375m, 3mtpa plant to double output at Davyhurst.
• Remember it was the merchants and guys selling shovels who made all the money in the California gold rush including: Levi Strauss and the founders of Wells Fargo.

Lithium – US Defense Department cancels $300m lithium stockpile tender

• The US defence stockpile agency dropped a tender for around 16,000t of lithium carbonate.
• The five-year contract was worth up to $300m. No reason was given for the cancellation.
• The agency also cancelled a cobalt tender last year.
• Meanwhile, Chinese lithium carbonate prices are up nearly 20% this year.

Rio is unlikely to reconsider an approach for Glencore as a six month restriction expires this week, according to Mining Weekly

• Rio confirmed it held talks with Glencore over a potential merger in early January but then decided no to proceed following a 28d “put up or shut up” deadline (February 5).
• Simon Trott is reported to have reassured Australian investors back then that Rio had no reason to revisit talks with Glencore.
• Rio is focused on streamlining operations concentrating on three core businesses including iron ore, copper and aluminium/lithium.
• Glencore represents an attractive portfolio of copper assets as well as a trading/marketing arm to leverage mining operations, albeit, the merger would also bring in a sizeable coal exposure.
• Relative valuation is also not helping odds for a potential bid with Glencore’s share price rising ~33% this year vs 18% for Rio.

Rare Earths – Malawi parliament orders investigation into Kangankunde Rare Earth Mine (AllAfrica.com)

• Malawi’s parliament ordered a 30-day investigation into the Lindian’s Kangankunde rare earths mine
• Lindian is targeting first production in Q4 2026.
• MPs question the mine’s 2022 medium-scale licence and missing documents, including an environmental assessment.
• Officials cannot say how much sample material went to Zambia and Australia for testing.
• The Speaker warned the mine could close if irregularities are found, saying ‘we are not going to allow our minerals to be stolen anymore.’
• Malawi’s mining regulator dismissed the same claims just last month.

Malawi’s mining minister calls for more private investment (AllAfrica.com)

• Mining Minister Thoko Tembo called for deeper partnerships between government and the private sector.
• Tembo says mining is capital intensive and investment is ‘crucial to the growth of the industry.’
• He wants local investors to take a bigger role in developing the sector.
• The comments came at a meeting with NICO Group, a Malawian financial services company.
• NICO’s MD Vizenge Kumwenda outlined the group’s capacity to fund mining projects.
• The projects would fall under Malawi 2063, the country’s long-term development plan.

Liontown (LTR AU, Mkt Cap A$3.2bn), a WA based lithium producer, “would look” at suspended Rio Tinto’s Mt Cattlin Lithium Mine, Business News reports.

• Rio Tinto suspended operations mid-2025 due to market conditions.
• Mt Cattlin is located in the south of WA, Australia, and run as an open pit operation at >200ktpa SC.
• Arcadium, an original owner pre Rio merge, considered an extension to LOM through an extensive waste stripping programme or an underground alternative but given low lithium prices flagged in 2024 that the mine will go into C&M.
• Mineral Resource 20.1mt 1.34% for ~670kt LCE.
• Reserves 2.3mt 1.0% for ~60kt LCE (OP domain and Stockpiles only).
• Liontown ramps up Kathleen Valley Underground Lithium Mine in WA having produced 392kt SC at A$1,233/SC in FY26.
• The Company guided for 390-440kt SC at A$1,050-1,250/SC for FY27.
• Kathleen Valley underground mining rates are expected to reach 2.8mtpa by late FY27 (Jun YE), up from 1.5mtpa recorded in late FY26.
• Katheleen Valley hosts 72mt 1.31% 2.3mt LCE in 2P Reserves and 149mt 1.33% 4.9mt LCE in MRE.

Currencies

US$1.1508/eur vs 1.1526/eur previous. Yen 157.68/$ vs 156.73/$. SAr 16.499/$ vs 16.468/$. $1.343/gbp vs $1.346/gbp. 0.702/aud vs 0.703/aud.

CNY 6.753/$ vs 6.753/$. Dollar Index 100.03 vs 99.79 previous.

Economics

US/Iran – President Trump pushes Tehran to sign a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as Tuesday or face air strikes.

• “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump told reporters on Monday.
• “You’ll find out today or tomorrow. I mean, they’re going to go quickly, one way or the other. It’s not very complex.”

US equity futures are trading higher with S&P nearing an all time high on positive earnings results.

• S&P companies are beating expectations at a rate of 86%, the highest in five years, with YOY growth in EPS at 29%.
• Palantir jumped 16% in premarket trading after raising its outlook.
• SpaceX and AMD are due to report later today.

Japan – The yen is slightly weaker approaching 158 level after hitting sub 156 over the news of a join US/Japan market intervention

Germany – Defence manufacturer is accommodating dismissed auto workers.

• Hensoldt AG is set to open a software and engineering centre in a vacant building on a Bosch campus near Stuttgart.
• The planned site will make use of engineering expertise at Bosch, the world’s largest auto supplier.
• The goal is to transfer as many as 300 automotive staff to work for the radar and sensor maker.

Rhine water levels dropped to the lowest in nearly 150y on hot weather threatening a crucial transporting route.

• The water level at Kaub, a key choke point for vessels heading to southern Germany and Switzerland, fell to 24cm Monday.
• That is the lowest since records began in 1880.
• Freight rates are rising with shipping companies forced to reduce cargo loads to navigate through shallow waters.
• Companies are turning to alternative transport routes like trucking and rails.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,065/oz vs US$4,061/oz previous

Gold ETFs 96.7moz vs 96.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,657/oz vs US$1,646/oz previous

Palladium US$1,287/oz vs US$1,285/oz previous

Silver US$59.0/oz vs US$58.0/oz previous

Silver ETFs 787.5moz vs 786.9moz previous

Rhodium US$8,250/oz vs US$8,250/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$13,964/t vs US$13,872/t previous

Aluminium US$3,256/t vs US$3,200/t previous

Nickel US$17,320/t vs US$16,975/t previous

Zinc US$3,670/t vs US$3,691/t previous

Lead US$1,885/t vs US$1,878/t previous

Tin US$55,750/t vs US$55,375/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$84.6/bbl vs US$82.9/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices moved higher after reports of a further attack on a commercial vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran denying that any direct talks with the US were underway.

Natural Gas €58.5/MWh vs €57.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.3/lb vs $86.5/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$93.9/t vs US$93.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.8/t vs US$467.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$212.0/t vs US$215.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$135.8/t vs US$134.3/t          

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$110,772/t vs US$110,759/t

Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$20,214/t vs US$20,360/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,185/t vs US$2,185/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,745/mtu vs US$1,745/mtu

Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$3,125/mtu vs US$3,025/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vs US$225/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vs US$390/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.4/kg vs US$26.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$208/t vs US$208/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,789/t vs US$2,789/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,163/t vs US$1,162/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$395.0/t vs US$395.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,095.0/kg vs US$4,095.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$430.0/kg vs US$430.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$32.5/lb vs US$32.5/lb

EV & Battery news:

Chinese EV makers hit record 10.7% share of western Europe market

• Chinese EV brands, including BYD and Xpeng, hit a record combined market share of 10.7% of new car sales across 18 western European countries in Q2 2026, up from 5.7% a year earlier, according to Schmidt Automotive Research.
• Tesla also grew its regional share to 2.6% in Q2, up from 1.7% a year earlier, even as overall US-brand share fell to 6.5%, with Schmidt analysts crediting Tesla’s price cuts to just above €30,000 ($34,522) across many markets with preventing a steeper fall.
• BYD, China’s market leader, delivered 91,500 units in Q2 for a 2.8% share, overtaking both Tesla and MG, and launched two luxury Denza models in the region in April and July, with a target of 3,000 flash-charging stations across Europe by March 2027.
• Leapmotor sold over 30,000 units in Q2 through its Stellantis partnership, up 466% yoy, for a 0.8% H1 share, with Schmidt noting the 100,000-unit quarterly mark remains unpassed by Chinese brands but could fall in Q4.
• Chinese carmakers are deepening local production ties to bypass trade barriers, with Geely announcing plans in July to acquire a 34% stake in a Ford plant in Spain for €221m ($254.32m), following Leapmotor’s move in May to expand production with Stellantis.
• Chinese brands and Tesla combined took 13.3% of the new-car market in Q2, up from just 0.1% a decade ago, helping drive western Europe’s strongest H1 since 2019, with registrations up 5.9% yoy to 6.44m units.
• European, Japanese, and South Korean brands all posted their lowest quarterly market shares in at least two years, at 65%, 10.7%, and 7% respectively.

Petrol trucks and SUVs on top in the US, while European carmakers struggle

• American demand for petrol trucks and big SUVs is driving strong profits at GM, Ford, and Stellantis, protected by steep US tariffs and rules that keep cheap Chinese EVs like BYD out of the market.
• GM and Ford were the only two big carmakers to raise their profit outlook for the year after a strong second quarter, and Stellantis’s profits more than tripled thanks to a modest US sales recovery.
• The Trump administration relaxed emissions rules this year, letting Detroit carmakers pull back from money-losing EVs and build more petrol and hybrid trucks and SUVs instead, the vehicles that make them the most money.
• European carmakers are in a much tougher spot. Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz all warned their yearly profits will come in lower than expected, and are cutting costs to compete with Chinese brands, which now hold close to 10% of Europe’s car market.
• Some experts think the US strategy could backfire longer term. Consultant Tu Le questioned whether American carmakers are serious about eventually building better EVs, and BCG’s Felix Stellmaszek warned that staying protected for too long could leave them badly behind once the shift to electric picks back up.

Company news:

Bradda Head Lithium (BHL LN) 2.3p, Mkt Cap £12.8m – Solar agreement signed over Pennsylvania brine lease

• Lithium developer Bradda Head has signed an accommodation agreement over its Pennsylvania brine lease.
• Solar developer SunShare will build a facility on 16 acres of the 136 acre lease in Lawrence County.
• Payment terms:
  • Bradda receives $5,000 within 10 business days of signing.
  • A further $20,000 follows if SunShare gives formal notice to proceed.
  • SunShare can extend the agreement up to five times at $5,000 per 12-month period.
  • Once construction starts, SunShare takes over the annual lease rentals, currently $1,339 and rising to $2,421 from 2028.
• Bradda keeps its brine lease, mineral rights and site access throughout.
• The deal expires if the solar project misses commercial operation within three years of formal notice.
• The solar plant could power a future DLE (direct lithium extraction pilot at the site).
• Executive Chair Ian Stalker says the agreement ‘enables the proposed solar development to progress while preserving the Company’s brine lease.’

Great Western Mining (GWMO LN) 3.55p, Mkt Cap £13.7m – Resource evaluation drilling at the Defender tungsten project in Nevada expected to start shortly

• Great Western Mining reports plans to start resource drilling at its Defender-Pine Crow tungsten exploration project in Nevada within the next two weeks.
• The company has previously indicated that it expects the programme to comprise around 7,000 feet (~2,800m) of reverse circulation drilling.
• Drilling will be overseen by a representative of the company’s independent technical mineral resource consultant, Addison Mining Services, to streamline “the resource evaluation process and … [ensure] … an efficient path to resource definition in Q4 2026”.
• The company confirms that it expects to receive assay results from the drilling “through September and October 2026, in addition to results from the bulk sample metallurgical work conducted in Q2 2026”.
• Great Western Mining confirms that the 2026 exploration programme is “fully funded”.

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) 50p, Mkt Cap £150m – Expansion of licenses in Greenland with evidence of gold, tungsten and sliver mineralisation

• GreenX Metals have expanded their Eleonore North gold project in Greenland through the acquisition of two new exploration licences over ~1,600 km².
• Historical assays show up to 50 g/t of gold in boulders and quartz veins in granitic intrusions in 1975
• Tungsten and sliver mineralisation have also been identified along a 160 km-long mineralised structural corridor in regional sediment sampling which corresponds to target intrusions.
• The intrusions and adjacent strata are shedding mineralised material into local streams via freeze / thaw erosion.
  • “Extensive evidence of tungsten mineralisation in the form of scheelite from stream sediment sampling.”
• Recent fieldwork should deliver first sampling and mapping results expected this quarter.
• The Malmbjerg Climax-type molybdenum porphyry deposit straddles the same fault system 60 km to the northwest.
• GreenX are issuing A$250,000 worth of new shares to the vendor of Eleonore North following the grant of exploration licence MEL 2026-124.
• GreenX held cash and cash equivalents of A$13m at the end of the last quarter
• Tannenberg: GreenX give recently gave a comprehensive update on the Tannenberg copper project in Germany:
  • Tannenberg JORC Exploration Target:
    • Copper 144 – 279mt @ 0.9% – 1.4%
    • Silver 144 – 279mt @ 15 – 21 g/t Ag
  • Contained metal (in-situ):
    • Copper: 1.3 – 3.9mt
    • Silver: 69 – 188moz
• Arbitration case with Polish government (~£252m and rising)
  • GreenX recently reported the receipt of A$1.6m for legal costs relating to its arbitration with the Government of Poland follows a recent ruling in a Singapore Court.
  • The claim relates to compensation awarded in arbitration relating to the loss of the Jan Karski project and Dębieńsko projects in Poland.
  • See: https://dailyjus.com/world/2024/11/mining-arbitration-series-a-perspective-from-poland
  • Litigation funder, LCM, will be paid 5x $11.2m of outstanding funding plus compounding interest at 30% by the time the claim is settled.
  • Remaining funds from the settlement will be distributed to shareholders less ~£20m to fund ongoing work at Tannenberg.

*The analyst recently visited the historic Tannenberg copper, silver mine in Germany

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 1.1p, Mkt Cap £151m – Tulu Kapi development update highlights RAP progress with debt drawdown targeted for 4Q26

BUY – 4.2p

• The Company updates on development progress at the Tulu Kapi Gold Project (Ethiopia) and portfolio of assets in Saudi Araba.
• Phase 1 Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) is well advanced covering the area for initial infrastructure (airstrip, power substation, construction camp).
• Phase 2 RAP covering the open pit and processing plant areas are now underway.
• Project equipment procurement continues as planned with >50% of major equipment ordered/ready for ordering.
• Lycopodium, EEP, ERA and BCM are mobilising teams to site.
• Construction of resettlement houses away from the mining license area in progress.
• Installation of a power substation and a new access road connecting the site to the highway is ongoing.
• Development progress reported to track on schedule with commissioning late 2027 and full production mid-2028.
• Project debt funding remains on track for first drawdown 4Q26.
• Exploration team led by Jeff Rayner is evaluating and prioritising targets in Ethiopia and the wider region.
• In Saudi Arabia, development plans are to start production from oxide material from Jibal Qutman Stage 1 (oxide OP) followed by Hawiah Stage 1 (oxide OP), and ultimately by sulphide development at Jibal Qutman (Stage 2) and Hawiah.
• Jibal Qutman FID targeted 2H26 with the Company planning to update on DFS results and its potential participation in the project then.

Conclusion: The Company reports development works are progressing on schedule as the focus now on project execution.

Relocation programme is ongoing. Debt drawdown due 4Q26 with commissioning expected in late 2027 and maiden production reiterated for mid-2028.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 0.4p, Mkt Cap £3.2m – Idaho unpatented mining claims secured

(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)

• Following the recent fundraising, Phoenix Copper confirms that it has now secured tenure of its unpatented mining claims in Idaho for the next year by paying the assessment fees due.
• The Empire mine produced during the first half of the 20^th century exploiting sulphide ores at depth beneath the oxide mineralisation envisaged as Phoenix Copper’s initial open pit project.
• The longer term, underlying potential of the Empire Mine’s remaining sulphide mineralisation at depth has still to be fully evaluated, however it may ultimately help to deliver a second phase longevity to Phoenix Copper’s operations possibly alongside the results of exploration at the nearby, near surface Red Star silver and base metals deposit, the Horseshoe Creek/White Knob prospects and the Navarre Creek gold prospect which the company has previously described as exhibiting similarities to the geological setting of the Carlin belt in the neighbouring state of Nevada.
• The company also reports that it has now discharged “all contractual obligations under the convertible loan agreement” with Indigo Capital “which was announced on 4 December 2025”.
• In July, the company raised around £2.4m by a placing, subscription and retail offer of shares priced at 0.5p/share.

Conclusion: Continuity of control over its claims around the Empire mine project maintains access to promising longer-term exploration projects close to the oxide copper project.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper

SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

No.1 for Precious Metals: Q1 2026

No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange

If anyone reads this article found it useful, helpful? Then please subscribe www.share-talk.com or follow SHARE TALK on our Twitter page for future updates. Terms of Website Use All information is provided on an as-is basis. Where we allow Bloggers to publish articles on our platform please note these are not our opinions or views and we have no affiliation with the companies mentioned

---