SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Friday 18th September 2026

Gold holds its gain as lower oil eases inflation worries

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arafura Rare Earths (ARU AU) – Arafura extends wind-turbine OEM offtake

Galileo Resources Plc (GLR LN) – US$3m sale of Botswana prospecting licences

Ongwe Minerals* (OGW CN) – Drilling results from the Belmont project, Namibia

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – US$1.2m sale of Turkish royalty

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, Target 17.6p – Interims highlight DFS completion, maiden reserve and €110m State grant

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Drilling provides clues to sulphide mineralisation underlying oxides at Mushima North

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) – Accounting reference date moved to 31 December

Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) – 1.3moz maiden reserve with FS on target by YE26

Gold ($4,395/oz) – Gold holds its gain as lower oil eases inflation worries

• Oil fell for a third day to $102.4/bbl, with Saudi Arabia moving to restore pipeline flows within days.
• Treasury yields fell across maturities, after spiking on Wednesday’s Fed decision.
• Gold is still nearly a fifth below where it stood before the Iran war began in late February.
• ETF holdings rose again to 100.4moz, having kept buying even while prices fell.
• Warsh’s remarks pushed expectations towards at least one more rise this year and up to two more in 2027.

Copper ($14,537/t) – Smelter fees hit a record low as concentrate stays scarce

• Copper rose 1.8%, helped by rising Chinese spot demand and lower oil prices.
• The spot copper concentrate treatment charge index fell to a record low of minus $221.89/dmt (Shanghai Metal Market).
• The 2026 benchmark for imported concentrate under long-term contracts is zero.
• Several Chinese smelters plan maintenance in October and November, with little scrap to fill the gap.
• Some have signalled production cuts and told customers long-term contract deliveries will be reduced.

Codelco delays its restructuring plan to the end of 2026

• Codelco told Reuters its recovery plan may not be ready until the end of 2026, having been expected in October.
• Four sources say it could involve cutting 5% to 20% of its nearly 77,000 staff, though Codelco says it is too early to speculate (Reuters).
• Some job losses could come from selling or closing less profitable operations or delaying projects.
• Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said in August that output is likely to stay around 1.3mt, against earlier plans for 1.7mt by the end of the decade.

Vedanta’s KCM signs a $498m deal to recover copper from tailings

• Konkola Copper Mines has signed a $498m contract with China NERIN Engineering for tailings leach plant.
• The plant sits at KCM’s operations in Chingola, in Zambia’s Copperbelt.
• It will recover 70,000t of copper a year by washing acid through existing tailings.
• KCM says it would be the largest plant of its kind in Africa.
• It runs alongside KCM’s existing tailings plant at Nchanga.
• NERIN provides design, engineering, procurement, and construction, plus commissioning, testing and training.
• The project sits within Vedanta’s ongoing $1bn investment in KCM, which includes the Konkola Deep Mining Project.
• KCM is 79.4% owned by Vedanta, with the rest held by ZCCM-IH, the Zambian state vehicle.
• Zambia wants to lift copper output to 3mt a year by 2031, from 890,346t in 2025.

Uranium equities struggled this week despite relatively stable uranium prices

• Kazatomprom fell 4%
• Cameco Corp. fell 5%
• Energy Fuels Inc. fell 2%

The move caught our attention as we see a strong positive longer-term outlook for uranium driven by ongoing uncertainty over oil & gas deliveries

• Spot uranium prices are recovering at $89.9/lb and heading towards the long-term uranium price of $96.4/lb as published by Cameco.
• Middle Eastern investment funds are reported to be maintaining and deploying capital rather than selling the market despite the ongoing war with Iran

IAEA Red Book

• The IAEA Red Book released this week reports global uranium resources recoverable at costs below US$100/lb U₃O₈  of >8.1mt.
• The IAEA reckon total supply is sufficient to meet projected nuclear energy demand through to 2050.
• Long-term contracts are needed support 15-20 year lead times for new mines.

Reactors  

• There are 418 commercial nuclear reactors in operation with 378GW9e) capacity and 23 reactors 19.7 GW9e) in suspension.
• Current uranium consumption is 64,500tpa of uranium
• New demand looks set to raise demand to 84,800-143,900tpa by 2050 with 72-80 new nuclear reactors currently under construction and another 120 more reactor officially planned.

Saudi Arabia announced a major find of ~110mt of uranium-bearing ore at Jabal Sed in the Medina region. The ore appears to come with REEs.

• The discovery was announced at the 70^th session of the IAEA, International AAtomic Energy Agency conference.
• Uranium concentrations are described as promising based on exploration and geological studies at Jabal Sayid.
• Jabal Sayid is 350km north of Jeddah.
• The site is said to contain ~552,000t of heavy REEs including dysprosium and terbium plus 355,000t of light REEs.
• If the uranium is contained in Monazite which also contains REEs we might expect uranium grades of 0.20% – 0.40% U₃O₈.
• The copper mine at Jabal Sayid produces 45,000-60,000tpa of copper in concentrate and is an equal jv run by Ma’aden and Barrick Mining.
• The mine’s resource grades 0.37% for 9.4mt Measured and 0.54% for 5.4mt Indicated though mine-head grades are higher at 1.7-2.3%

Conclusion: We have spoken to hundreds of geologists over many years and the term ‘promising’ is broad in its application and may not indicate ‘recoverable’ grades.

Uranium is likely to be recovered during the dissolution of rare earths their host minerals with the REEs potentially carrying the cost of the project.

We look forward to further detail on the discovery and if it might prove to be economically extractable

Currencies

US$1.1479/eur vs 1.1479/eur previous. Yen 157.32/$ vs 155.64/$. SAr 16.250/$ vs 16.282/$. $1.337/gbp vs $1.339/gbp. 0.713/aud vs 0.712/aud. CNY 6.699/$ vs 6.708/$.

Dollar Index 100.29 vs 100.16 previous.

Economics

China / US trade talks in US – BYD, CATL, Xiaomi executives on list of business leaders join Xi Jinping’s upcoming US visit, sources say

• Washington and Beijing are finalising a group of Chinese business leaders to join President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Washington, with final invitations expected in the coming days and US visas for the delegation likely to be approved by the State Department, according to Reuters sources.
• Companies under consideration include BYD, Xiaomi, CATL, Gotion, Hisense, Wanxiang Group, and Bank of China, several of which face active US regulatory pressure.
  • CATL and BYD were both added to a Pentagon list over alleged military links, in January 2025 and June 2026 respectively.
  • Gotion is suing a Michigan township over a blocked $2.36bn EV-components plant.
  • Wanxiang agreed in December to pay over $53m to settle a DOJ case on customs and anti-dumping duties.
• One source said Xi plans to bring companies facing US sanctions or restrictions, mirroring Trump’s decision to bring executives from Chinese-scrutinised US firms on his Beijing trip in May, which included Micron, Qualcomm, and Illumina.
• The visit comes as a Biden-era rule is set to bar China-linked manufacturers from selling new connected passenger vehicles in the US from model year 2027, on top of an existing 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, even as Trump said last week he’d support Chinese firms building cars domestically.
• Washington’s main objectives for the summit include a Board of Trade agreement, additional rare-earth export licences for US companies, and extending the trade truce reached in South Korea last October, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also expected to attend a White House state dinner during the visit.

Japan – The central bank raises rates by 25bp to 1.25%, as expected, while signalling further hikes are likely to follow

• Yen fell more than 1% to 157.7 following the 7-2 vote to raise rates. The non-unanimous vote means markets are unsure over the appetite for further tightening.
• Both dissenting votes represent two members appointed by Japan’s PM Takaichi who favours reflationary government policies.
• As the currency is seen giving up its intervention related gains, Finance Minister told reporters that the government “would not hesitate” to conduct another round of co-ordinated interventions.

Germany – Manufacturing inflation accelerates in August coming ahead of expectations (4.6%yoy vs 3.0% July)

UK – The central bank kept rates unchanged at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote

• Although, Andrew Bailey said that the policy “may have to tighten” amid rising inflation forecasts.
• The longer this volatility persists, the bigger the impact it will have on inflation, and the more likely it is that we will need to raise [the] bank rate to ensure that inflation falls back to our 2 per cent target.”
• Separately, the BOE announced it will pause all bond sales for six months and indefinitely hold on to its longest dated gilts.
• 30y gilt yields dropped 12bp to 5.74% on the announcement marking the best day since May.

Retail sales up 0.5%mom in August beating estimates supported by hot summer weather.

• The announcement follows a 0.5%mom drop in July that was in turn hit by promotional pricing the previous month.

Tom Watson, former Labour government minister joins Palantir

• If ever there was a gamekeeper turned poacher.
• Palantir has a £330m NHS contract and Labour Mayor, Sadiq Khan is trying to block the Met police from using Palantir in a £50m contract.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,395/oz vs US$4,334/oz previous

Gold ETFs 100.4moz vs 100.2moz previous

Platinum US$1,818/oz vs US$1,793/oz previous

Palladium US$1,329/oz vs US$1,321/oz previous

Silver US$67.0/oz vs US$64.8/oz previous

Silver ETFs 800.1moz vs 802.2moz previous

Rhodium US$9,150/oz vs US$9,550/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$14,537/t vs US$14,181/t previous

Aluminium US$3,294/t vs US$3,264/t previous

Nickel US$16,260/t vs US$16,075/t previous

Zinc US$3,902/t vs US$3,854/t previous

Lead US$1,914/t vs US$1,885/t previous

Tin US$53,670/t vs US$52,450/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$102.4/bbl vs US$107.6/bbl previous

• US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged lower as the EIA reported a 44bcf w/w storage build to 3,298bcf, with US inventories 4% lower y/y and 4% above the five-year average, as LNG export capacity rose 1bcf to 138bcf (c.19.7bcf/d).

Natural Gas €77.2/MWh vs €81.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $89.9/lb vs $89.9/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$97.2/t vs US$95.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$477.2/t vs US$475.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$275.0/t vs US$275.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$145.2/t vs US$145.8/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$39,780/t vs US$40,675/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$108,830/t vs US$108,984/t

Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$19,034/t vs US$19,158/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,880/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t

Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,875/mtu vs US$1,875/mtu

Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,925/mtu vs US$2,925/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$241/lb vs US$240/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$405/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$25.8/kg vs US$25.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$186/t vs US$186/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,952/t vs US$2,806/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,172/t vs US$1,170/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,255.0/kg vs US$4,255.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$440.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$34.0/lb

Company news:

Arafura Rare Earths (ARU AU) A$0.19, Mkt Cap A$1.0bn – Arafura extends wind-turbine OEM offtake

• The Company extends the existing binding offtake with a global wind turbine OEM.
• Annual contract volume of up to 500tpa NdPr oxide, with volume optionality retained to satisfy ECA-required offtake commitments.
• Term of five years, extendable to eight.
• Pricing linked to a global seaborne index (eg Benchmark Mineral Intelligence or S&P Global Platts North America).
• The Company will no longer disclose offtake counterparty identities unless the identity is itself material.
• Nolans REE Project FID declared 21 May with construction about to start.
• The hardrock deposit hosts ~29mt/2.9% TREO in Reserves and ~56/2.6% TREO in Resources, located in Australia (NT).
• The plan is to develop an integrated separation production facility running at ~4.4ktpa NdPr (separated oxides).

Galileo Resources Plc (GLR LN) 0.75p, Mkt cap £9.7m – US$3m sale of Botswana prospecting licences

• Galileo Resources reports that its US$3m sale of two prospecting licences in the Kalahari Copper Belt, Botswana to a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sandfire Resources, Metal Capital Exploration is expected to be completed at the end of this month.
• We understand that the transaction, which was announced in June, includes a success payment will be triggered by a JORC reserve containing “at least 400,000 tonnes of contained copper”.
• Under the previously announced terms, a minimum 400kt of contained copper would earn a US$20m success payment with copper content of 400-600kt qualifying a success payment of US$40m and if the metal content exceeds 600kt the payment rises to US$80m.
• Galileo Resources has also announced previously that proceeds of the sale will be used to progress “the Company’s principal projects in Zambia and Zimbabwe”.

Ongwe Minerals* (OGW CN) C$1.35, Mkt Cap C$81m – Drilling results from the Belmont project, Namibia

• Scout drilling at the BK2 target within Ongwe Minerals’ Belmont project, Khorixas, Namibia has intersected gold mineralisation and encouraged the company to announce a 3,500m programme to assess additional targets in the 12km x 6km project area.
• The scout drilling campaign consisted of 20 reverse-circulation (RC) holes testing the BK2, BK7 and BK13 targets
• The company’s announcement highlights reverse circulation results from:
  • Hole BKR-010 which “was drilled approximately 120 m south-southeast of the previously drilled holes BKP036 and BKDD003” intersected 3m at an average grade of 9.21g/t gold from 17m depth and additional intersections of 5m at a grade of 0.9g/t from 39m depth and 3m at a grade of 6.45g/t from 70m depth; and
  • Hole BKR-019, located “between the previously drilled holes and BKR010” which intersected a single metre at a grade of 4.70g/t gold from 53m depth and additional intersections of 5m at a grade of 1.11g/t from 63m and 7m at a grade of 3.23g/t from 78m depth.
• CEO, Dave Underwood, said that the scout drilling “has confirmed that there is high-grade gold associated with complex folding … [and that although the intersections are narrow] … the grades are very encouraging”.
• He described how among the “19 individual gold anomalies … [at Belmont, the] … BK8 target is also a very compelling undrilled target with a wide surface gold footprint over 1.5km in length and soil samples as high as 1.49 g/t Au”.
• Mr. Underwood also said that Ongwe Minerals is “also ramping up activity at the K17 prospect with two phases of geophysics designed to produce copper-gold intrusion related drill targets for testing in the second quarter of 2027”.
• He confirmed that the expected 2 month geophysical programme, following up an 8km x 7km geochemical anomaly at the K17 prospect, is expected to start in October.

Conclusion: Scout drilling at the Belmont prospect, Namibia, has intersected high grade gold and a further 3,500m drilling programme is planned to investigate additional targets among the 19 known gold anomalies within the project area.

*SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in Ongwe Minerals

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.31p, Mkt Cap £14.7m – US$1.2m sale of Turkish royalty

• Oriole Resources reports the sale of its royalty interest in the Turkish Muratdere project to Dubai-based Ardent Metals.
• The US$1.2m sale is expected to be delivered in three equal tranches, each of US$400,000.
• The first payment has already been received with the next two due “by 19 March 2027 and 19 September 2027 respectively”.
• Oriole Resources operated the Muratdere project “between 2005 and 2011 … [delivering] … a JORC-compliant Inferred Resource of 51 million tonnes (“Mt”) grading 0.36% copper” with additional gold, silver, molybdenum and rhenium.
• Chief Executive, Martin Rosser, explained that proceeds of the sale of its royalty will be “devoted to funding the Company’s important activities in Cameroon.”

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 6.02p, Mkt Cap £155m – Interims highlight DFS completion, maiden reserve and €110m State grant

BUY – 17.6p

• Savannah Resources released interim results for the six months to 30 June 2026 at the Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal.
• Portuguese State grant awarded for up to €110m, non-reimbursable, including €82.25m towards initial development capex.
• Phase 1 DFS highlights include:
  • 14y LOM / 183ktpa SC5.5
  • Costs: $473/t C1 / $646/t AISC
  • LOM EBITDA $3.2bn / FCF $1.9bn assuming $1,788/t average price
  • Post-tax NPV8 $913m / IRR 43% / 1.9y payback
• Maiden JORC Probable Reserve estimated at 20.0mt 0.99% Li2O using $1,200/t SC6 price.
• RECAPE submission guided for 4Q26 with the regulator’s decision expected 1Q27.
• Boticas bypass road DIA permit is expected 4Q26.
• Two rigs are operating on site for geotechnical and hydrogeological work.
• A FEED engineer was appointed in August, and the processing plant FEED vendor has been selected.
• Ten MoUs signed with local and regional organisations during the period.
• 154ha secured across Blocks A and C of the C-190 Aldeia concession, with plots bought or under deed to reach 114 by end-September.
• Compulsory acquisition is prepared where voluntary agreements are not reached.
• The team is working with a shortlist of lenders, with conditional project finance offers targeted YE26.
• Discussions continue on a German Government loan guarantee linked to the AMG offtake Heads of Terms.
• A second lithium offtake is targeted YE26, with LOIs indicating c.865ktpa potential demand for project by-products.
• A dual listing on a European or international market is being assessed for 2027.
• Interim financials:
  • Cash £17.1m (Dec25: £22.1m), including £4.9m pledged against bank guarantees for land purchases and the Aldeia concession
  • Loss from continuing operations £2.0m (1H25: £1.5m) on higher admin costs and a smaller FX gain
• The team guides to FID in early 2027, construction later in 2027 and first concentrate late 2028.

Conclusion: The DFS, a maiden reserve and the State grant together take Barroso close to a construction decision.

Focus is now on the RECAPE decision in 1Q27 and project finance by year end, both feeding the early-2027 FID.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) 29.2p, Mkt Cap £10m – Accounting reference date moved to 31 December

• Serval has changed its accounting reference date from 30 November to 31 December, with immediate effect.
• The next audited accounts will cover the 13 months to 31 December 2026, due by 30 June 2027.
• The following year runs from 1 January to 31 December 2027, with half-year results due by 30 September 2027.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Serval Resources

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.8p, Mkt Cap £5.2m – Drilling provides clues to sulphide mineralisation underlying oxides at Mushima North

• Following yesterday’s announcement of the latest drilling results from its Mushima North silver/copper project in Zambia Tertiary Minerals reports that the 29 drillholes released so far have outlined a “higher-grade shallow mineralised zone approximately 400m long by 150m wide, striking northwest”.
• The company confirms that “The Discovery Zone, along with the higher-grade zone, remains open and at depth, with numerous holes ending in mineralisation, extending beyond the Exploration Target boundary which is 500m long, 350m and 75m thick”.
• Initial portable X-Ray Fluorescence (pXRF) analysis has also outlined a “New shallow copper discovery made in the Western Zone, approximately 900m west-southwest of the Discovery Zone”.
• Managing Director, Richard Belcher, welcomed the results and confirmed that “mineralisation within the higher-grade zone remains open at depth, with numerous holes ending in mineralisation beyond the current modelled Exploration Target boundary”.
• He explained that “in several holes the mineralisation transitions from the oxide zone into fresher rock where visible disseminated sulphide mineralisation is also observed in the drill chips … [and commented that] …. While this is not conclusive evidence for the continuation of the oxide mineralisation into a deeper primarily sulphide deposit, … [it] … supports the need for deeper diamond drilling underneath the near-surface oxide mineralisation”.

Conclusion: The Phase 4 drilling at Mushima North is providing encouragement for sulphide mineralisation beneath the shallow oxides and extending the mineralised footprint.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) A$0.9, Mkt Cap A$156m – 1.3moz maiden reserve with FS on target by YE26

• The Company released maiden mineral reserve estimate for the El Zorro Gold Project in Chile.
• Mineral reserve estimate:
• 42.8mt at 093g/t for 1,283koz (100% OP domain)
• The estimate is based on >160km of diamond drilling completed on the Ternera property since the initial discovery.
• The reserve implies an 87% conversion of the 1.47moz Measured and Indicated resource.
• Ternera MRE
  • 40.3mt at 1.13g/t for 1.5moz (M&I)
  • 51.6mt at 1.10g/t for 1.8moz (Total)
• PFS highlights:
  • >13y LOM
  • OP with 6.3 WO ratio / contractor mining
  • 3mtpa conventional gravity/CIP
  • >100kozpa over first 10y treating 1.16g/t
  • 94.5% recoveries
  • Development capex $256m
  • AISC $1,572/oz
  • Post-tax NPV5/IRR $994m/57% using $3,500/oz gold price
  • Payback 17 months
• DFS related work ongoing with the study targeted for completion by the end of CY26.

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Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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