Gold extends rebound >$4,100 as US dollar and yields fall further
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Atlas Metals Group (AMG LN) – Moving to lithium and graphite following termination of pozzolanic project
Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – US$150m credit facility for the Bilboes development
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Additional testing identifies the resource potential of the Narlaby Formation at Wudinna
Cora Gold (CORA LN) – Greenfield drilling extends the Sanankoro shear zone in Mali
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – BUY, Target 89p – Gold offtake agreement for Andacollo
Mkango Magnetic Materials* (MKA LN) – BUY – SEC F-4 approval declared with the deal EGM vote due 25 November
Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Revised timetable for resumption of plant operations at the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe
Tungsten West (TUN LN) – High Court approves Capital Reduction
Viridis Mining & Minerals (VMM AU) – Binding take or pay Solvay offtake
Gold – extends rebound >$4,100 as US dollar and yields fall further
- Gold is trading >$4,100/oz, having jumped >3% on Wednesday.
- Treasury yields fell across the curve, and the dollar weakened 0.4% on the Democrat sweep, with both falling further on Thursday.
- Brent fell to under $100/bbl for the first time since early October, after Trump played down Iran strikes.
- China’s bar and coin consumption rose 26.26% to 444.6t over nine months (China Gold Association).
- Jewellery consumption fell 33.86% to 178.6t.
- Traders now look to Friday’s US payrolls for direction on rates.
Copper – slips on datacentre doubts despite tightening of Chinese physical market
- Copper fell 0.2% to ~$14,011/t, with governor wins across four states putting half of proposed US data centre additions under tighter scrutiny.
- But, production cuts at Chinese smelters have left immediately available cathode scarce.
- The Shanghai spot premium over futures jumped to 1,900 yuan ($285)/t on Wednesday, the highest since 2021 (SMM).
- US imports fell to 194,284t in September from July’s record 225,094t, with a proposed 15% tariff from 2027 still unconfirmed.
- Freeport has approved a $4.5bn expansion at Bagdad, Arizona, with first production targeted for mid-2030.
China – Overseas mineral acquisitions rise to 8-year high at $8.8bn in nine months
- Rhodium Group calculates Chinese overseas mineral acquisitions at US$8.8bn over the first nine months, the since 2018.
- Eurasia Group says Beijing treats 70% import dependence as an unofficial ceiling.
- That covers copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, bauxite, and iron ore.
- The IEA puts China at ~92% of global refined rare earth production.
India – Cabinet approves a $297m incentive for lithium and nickel processing
- India’s cabinet has approved a Rs28.14bn ($297m) programme to build domestic lithium and nickel processing.
- It targets electric mobility, battery storage, electronics, defence, and speciality steel.
- The government says processing remains concentrated in a few countries, exposing supply chains to disruption and price swings.
South Korean chipmakers are selling off with Samsung and SK Hynix down more than 7% on concerns of tighter US data centre regulation.
- Kospi Index closed ~5% off with SOX down ~3%.
Brent at $95/bbl following a 9% drop on Wednesday taking total losses to ~20% for the week.
- Markets are betting on deescalation in the Iran war with President Trump saying there were no immediate strike plans.
- Trump conceded that the war “largely” cost Republicans midterms.
- Chuck Schumer (Democrat/Senate) has pledged to end the conflict, and JD Vance blamed the war for Republican losses.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +3.03% | at | 53,356 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.79% | at | 61,078 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +3.67% | at | 24,797 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.10% | at | 3,690 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -2.0 | at | 4.87 |
Currencies
US$1.1241/eur vs 1.1246/eur previous. Yen 158.23/$ vs 158.20/$. SAr 16.356/$ vs 16.488/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.702/aud vs 0.700/aud. CNY 6.670/$ vs 6.674/$.
Dollar Index 101.43 vs 101.37 previous.
Economics
Eurozone – Elevated inflation rates remain the case in the Eurozone with the headline figure hitting 4% and the core measure at 2.5%.
- CPI MoM (Oct P / Sep / Est): 0.4% / 0.6% / 0.4%
- CPI YoY (Oct P / Sep / Est): 4.0% / 3.8% / 4.0%
- CPI Core YoY (Oct P / Sep / Est): 2.5% / 2.5% / 2.5%
Iran – Trump’s trouncing unlikely to end conflict with Iran
- Trump will likely attack Iran again to force IRGC to the negotiation table
- Any negotiated settlement seems unlikely.
- But, a long-duration conflict now also looks low probability.
- The Democrats will not want the war to continue under their watch, if / when they win the next Presidential election.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,127/oz vs US$4,035/oz previous
Gold ETFs 100.8moz vs 100.9moz previous
Platinum US$1,520/oz vs US$1,457/oz previous
Palladium US$1,027/oz vs US$985/oz previous
Silver US$52.8/oz vs US$51.9/oz previous
Silver ETFs 815.8moz vs 816.0moz previous
Rhodium US$9,125/oz vs US$9,125/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,025/t vs US$14,057/t previous
Aluminium US$3,083/t vs US$3,069/t previous
Nickel US$16,115/t vs US$15,515/t previous
Zinc US$3,837/t vs US$3,817/t previous
Lead US$1,899/t vs US$1,883/t previous
Tin US$47,370/t vs US$47,345/t previou
Energy:
Oil US$95.4/bbl vs US$104.2/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices slumped further on rising market expectations that the Democratic sweep at the US midterm elections would act as a check on President Trump further escalating the Iran conflict.
- The EIA estimated draws of 1.3mb to commercial US crude, 0.4mb to the SPR, 3.6mb to distillates and 0.2mb to gasoline stocks, with refinery utilisation up 1.7% w/w to 94.5% as domestic crude output finally broke through the 14mb/d level.
- European energy prices pull back with crude prices as the onset of the European winter heating season caused EU natural gas storage levels to fall by 0.9% w/w to 74.1% full (vs 89.8% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 839TWh.
Natural Gas €86.6/MWh vs €93.1/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $91.7/lb vs $92.0/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$93.0/t vs US$91.9/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$480.2/t vs US$480.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$260.5/t vs US$260.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$143.5/t vs US$146.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,525/t vs US$33,525/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$105,246/t vs US$105,186/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$13,418/t vs US$13,410/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,240/t vs US$1,235/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,835/mtu vs US$1,835/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,775/mtu vs US$2,775/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$239/lb vs US$240/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$25.6/kg vs US$25.6/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$176/t vs US$176/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,917/t vs US$2,917/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,177/t vs US$1,176/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,555.0/kg vs US$4,555.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$460.0/kg vs US$460.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 6.2% | 2.6% | Freeport-McMoRan | 1.3% | -6.0% |
| Rio Tinto | 7.0% | 2.2% | Vale | 4.1% | -0.3% |
| Glencore | 1.6% | -4.7% | Newmont Mining | 9.9% | 3.7% |
| Anglo American | 2.1% | 0.4% | Fortescue | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| Antofagasta | 2.7% | 1.9% | Teck Resources | 4.3% | 2.3% |
Atlas Metals Group (AMG LN) 2.8p, Mkt Cap £1.5m – Moving to lithium and graphite following termination of pozzolanic project
- Atlas Metals report the termination of their proposed acquisition of UPSA ‘Universal Pozzolanic Silica Alumina’.
- They say the termination:
- “follows recent due diligence difficulties and actions by representatives of UPSA which the Company believes materially changes the merits and viability of the transaction.
- The Company is seeking to recover material amounts owed to it by UPSA.”
- While the Roman’s used Pozzolanic Silica Alumina (volcanic ash) in much of their construction we feel it’s not something today’s investors get that excited about unless it’s in historic artefacts in the British Museum.
- Atlas report they are now in advanced discussions on lithium and graphite assets in Africa and South America.
- “The projects are well-funded, have the potential to generate revenues in the near term and are supported by existing technical reports.”
- Expenses:
- Admin expenses were £2.8m over the past six months
- Current assets:
- Trade and other receivables £1.69m
- Cash and cash eq.: £0.08m
- Current liabilities:
- Trade and other payables: £5.38m
- Convertible loan notes: £3.77m
- Total current liabilities: £9.65m
Conclusion: Atlas has not disclosed how much UPSA. Lets hope this is easily recoverable. We look forward to seeing details on the lithium and graphite proposals.
Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 1,550p, Mkt Cap £296m – US$150m credit facility for the Bilboes development
- Caledonia Mining reports that it has secured US$150m of interim financing for its Bilboes gold project development in Zimbabwe.
- The Standard Bank led facility comprises a US$50m revolving credit facility with interest payable at “the secured overnight financing rate for the relevant period (“SOFR”) plus 8.10% per annum … [plus a US$100m facility] … with an accordion option of up to a further US$50 million, at an interest rate of SOFR plus 7.90% per annum”.
- Caledonia Mining says that securing the banking facility from a syndicate of “eight banking institutions demonstrates strong support from the Zimbabwean banking sector for both the Group and the project”.
- The banking facility follows a gold hedging programme, started in December 2025, which secures a “floor price of US$3,500 per ounce while retaining full participation in upside gold price movements” on gold sales of 3,000oz per month until December 2028.
- It also comes after Caledonia Mining’s January 2026 “upsized US$150 million convertible notes offering, generating approximately US$130 million in net proceeds”.
- The company confirms its continuing “discussions with regional and international financial institutions regarding a longer-term project financing package”.
- The systematic building of the Bilboes financing package comes as “Initial ground works at Bilboes are ……underway and the main construction … [is planned to] … take place during 2027 and 2028. The project remains on track to deliver first gold in under two years from now in October 2028”.
- Chief Executive, Mark Learmonth, explained that “Bilboes is expected to transform Caledonia’s production profile and we remain focused on advancing the project towards development”.
- In November 2025, the company announced that, over a planned 10.8 years mine life, the Bilboes project is expected to produce 1.55moz of gold at an all-in-sustaining cost of US$1,061/oz “with first production expected in late 2028”.
- Using a consensus gold price of US$2,548/oz, Caledonia Mining has previously said that it expects funding of US$484m to deliver an after-tax NPV8%(Real) of US$582m and an IRR of 32.5% with a payback of 1.7years.
Conclusion: As work on the ground progresses the Bilboes project towards expected first gold production in 2028, Caledonia Mining is assembling the necessary financial resources through a combination of hedging, convertible notes and today’s announcement of a US$150m revolving credit facility.
*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 3.25p, Mkt Cap £36m – Additional testing identifies the resource potential of the Narlaby Formation at Wudinna
- Cobra Resources reports further results from ambient temperature leaching of samples from its Boland and Head rare earths projects in South Australia, collectively described as the Wudinna Rare Earth project.
- Testing of 42 drill samples leached by pH3 “0.5 Molar ammonium sulphate lixiviant solution” were conducted by Australia’s Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO).
- Results for the Pidinga Formation host rock at the Boland deposit showed recovery rates for of up to:
- “88 % of total rare earth plus yttrium (“TREY”)
- 87 % of neodymium plus praseodymium (“Nd+Pr”)
- 73 % of dysprosium plus terbium (“Dy+Tb”)
- 81 % of samarium (“Sm”)
- 76 % of yttrium (“Y”)”
- Tests on samples of the Pidinga Formation at the Head deposit showed recovery rates for of up to:
- “66 % of TREY
- 62 % of Nd+Pr
- 58 % of Dy+Tb
- 64 % of Sm
- 57 % of Y”
- In addition, tests on 3 samples of the younger, Narlaby Formation, at the Head deposit showed recovery rates for of up to:
- “88 % of TREY
- 88 % of Nd+Pr
- 93 % of Dy+Tb
- 88 % of Sm
- 84 % of Y”
- “The Company will now study the Narlaby formation in greater detail with the objective of establishing its whole or partial inclusion in the ISR portion of the Head … [mineral resource estimate] … MRE”.
- Managing Director, Rupert Verco, said that the “exceptional recovery results within the Narlaby formation present as a compelling opportunity to bring this existing material classified as open pit MRE mineralisation into the ISR recoverable resources” and confirmed that “the team is evaluating the next work streams to enable this conversion”
- More generally, he said that “These results provide us with greater clarity in identifying the materials that can contribute most to Wudinna’s development”.
- Mr. Verco confirmed that the testing programme “aids in identifying both the opportunities and the variability that must be reflected in the scoping study”.
Conclusion: The latest test results on rare earth recovery from the Wudinna project confirm the potential of the Narlaby Formation to contribute to the in-situ recoverable resource.
Cora Gold (CORA LN) 9.5p, Mkt Cap £72.7m – Greenfield drilling extends the Sanankoro shear zone in Mali
(Cora Gold hold the Sanankoro gold project in the Yanfolila gold belt of southern Mali, with a JORC resource of 1,044koz at 1.04 g/t Au)
- Cora Gold report assay results from four reconnaissance holes at the Dakounkoura South greenfield target.
- Dakounkoura South is the southern extension of Dakounkoura, which sits 1km north of the Zone B North deposit.
- The four holes total 392m on 100-200m spacing.
- Greenfield drilling accounts for ~5% (<1,000m) of the 2026 programme.
- Best intercepts, all outside the current MRE:
- 28m @ 0.27 g/t Au from 51m in SC0750
- 35m @ 0.40 g/t Au from 5m in SC0751
- 11m @ 0.55 g/t Au from 66m in SC0752
- 16m @ 0.85 g/t Au from 20m in SC0753
- 11m @ 0.33 g/t Au from 118m in SC0753, the second parallel zone
- What the drilling showed:
- All four holes hit mineralisation along the hangingwall of the Sanankoro Main Shear Zone.
- 500m of strike of a new oxide zone, close to the planned process plant.
- Mineralisation sits in quartz veining within metasediments, weathered to oxide to 85m downhole.
- SC0751 starts just 5m from surface and remains open down dip.
- Dakounkoura and Dakounkoura South now run ~1.2km of combined strike to a depth of 120m.
- Total drill-defined strike on the Sanankoro structure is now >8km and remains open in all directions.
- CSA Global, now ERM, set a 2022 Exploration Target of 5.9-8Mt at 0.60-1.20 g/t Au over Dakounkoura and Dakounkoro.
- Programme status:
- The RC programme was expanded on positive results and has finished at 14,081m.
- Diamond drilling continues for resource growth and metallurgical testwork, expected to exceed 1,500m.
- Assays are pending from Zone A, Zone C, TRA07, Kary and the remaining Zone B holes.
- The 2026 programme aims to grow the resource and extend Reserve mine life beyond the 10.2 years in the 2025 DFS.
- CEO Bert Monro says ‘four holes don’t make a deposit’ but that they have ‘reduced our uncertainty’.
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 20.5p, Mkt Cap £309m – Gold offtake agreement for Andacollo
Initiation Note 21/07/26 – BUY – 89p CLICK HERE
- Galantas Gold reports an agreement with Ocean Partners for the sale of doré and refined gold from its Andacollo gold project in Chile.
- Under the agreement Galantas Gold will sell “100% of the refined gold and silver contained in doré or other acceptable semi-refined product produced from Andacollo Gold … [to Ocean Partners for] … an initial term ending on the expiry of three full calendar years after the commencement of commercial production”.
- “The Agreement also permits the Seller to request advance payments from Ocean Partners subject to a maximum of US$10.0 million outstanding against future production and subject to the value of recoverable metal on the heap leach pads”.
- The company has previously indicated that it expects to resume production at Andacollo in Q1 2027 ramping up to a steady-state output of ~13kozpa from the 1.5moz ‘Indicated’ gold resource and an additional 4.5moz resource.
*SP Angel act as Broker to Galantas Gold
Mkango Magnetic Materials* (MKA LN) 37.5p, Mkt Cap £120m – SEC F-4 approval declared with the deal EGM vote due 25 November
BUY
- Mkango reports that the US SEC declared MKAR’s Form F-4 effective on 4 November.
- The SEC review related to the registration of the SPAC merger with MKAR and Crown PropTech Acquisitions (CPTK) ahead of the Nasdaq listing.
- CPTK started mailing the definitive proxy statement/prospectus to its shareholders to vote on the business combination.
- EGM is scheduled for 25 November.
- Nasdaq listing remains pending shareholder approval of the deal, minimum cash post redemptions and regulatory listing approval.
- MKAR would hold the Songwe Hill REE project in Malawi and the proposed Pulawy separation plant in Poland (both designated as Strategic Projects under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act).
- Magnet recycling business developed by Mkango and CoTec (Maginito, HyProMag, Remloy) remains outside of MKAR.
- Share are up 15% this morning in London.
Conclusion: The MKAR merger deal clears another regulatory hurdle with SPAC shareholder to vote on the deal 25 November on course for the eventual Nasdaq listing of upstream and midstream REE operations. The listing marks a major value catalyst for the Group with Mkango remaining a major shareholder (~80%) in the separately listed MKAR.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Mkango Magnetic Materials
Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.003p, Mkt Cap £2.7m – Revised timetable for resumption of plant operations at the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe
- Premier African Minerals, which had previously indicated that the planned resumption of plant operations at its Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe was expected during October, reports today a revised timetable with the restart now expected “during the week commencing 16 November 2026”.
- Earlier this year, indications of a July restart were revised with an “October announcement … [that] … the Board … [had] … elected to move away from the original strategy of building a larger run-of-mine (“ROM“) stockpile before recommencing processing, instead prioritising an initial operating campaign using the material already available at Zulu”.
- While the company confirms that “the principal engineering works and process modifications required ahead of the restart are substantially complete … [it also reports] … certain labour-related challenges in Zimbabwe, particularly the workforce arrangements necessary to support the recommencement of operations”.
- “Whilst these matters have presented some practical constraints, our senior management and supervisors have made considerable progress, ensuring that the critical engineering works and operational preparations have continued to advance. We remain constructively engaged with the relevant parties and are optimistic that the necessary arrangements will be finalised shortly”.
Tungsten West (TUN LN) 33.75p, Mkt Cap £437m – High Court approves Capital Reduction
- Tungsten West reports that the High Court has “sanctioned the proposed cancellation of the amount standing to the credit of the Company’s share premium account … [which] … was approved by shareholders … at the Annual General Meeting on 29 September 2026”.
- Tungsten West’s announcement clarifies that the capital reduction “will enable the Company to pay dividends and make other distributions to shareholders of the Company in the future” while it adds the caveat that “there can be no assurance that the Company will make any such distributions or returns of value or as to the timing or amount”.
Viridis Mining & Minerals (VMM AU) A$3.2, Mkt Cap A$550 – Binding take or pay Solvay offtake
- Viridis signed a binding long-term offtake with Solvay for refined MREC from the Colossus REE Project (Brazl).
- The take-or-pay contract covers the period from 2028 to end-2034.
- The start date is the earlier of Commercial Operations Date (COD) or 1 January 2029.
- The agreement includes a five year renewal period.
- The contract covers seven payable REE contained in the MREC product (NdPrDyTbSmYGd).
- Minimum MREC volumes represent ~70% of forecast Colossus production across the initial term with Solvay holding a right of first offer (ROFO) over all remaining production through to 31 December 2034.
- Price floor agreed for magnetic REOs (NdPrDyTb) with minimum committed volumes, subject to Viridis delivering into the contract, estimated to generate ~US$915m post payabilities over the take or pay period (2029-2034).
- Exact price floor levels are not disclosed with other REOs (SmYGd) not subject to floor arrangements.
- Since June 2026, Viridis supplied MREC samples from the Demonstration Plant in Pocos de Caldas for testwork at Solvay’s La Rochelle separation facility in France.
- A separate licensing and technical services agreement (LTSA) with Solvay is contemplated for producing the higher-value refined MREC in Brazil.
- The offtake will assist Viridis in finalising debt project funding after completing the DFS (August 2026 / ~US$450m capex) and up to $120 strategic equity investment.
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Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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