Bitcoin has a 51% chance of falling to $75,000 at some point before 30 September 2026, according to bettors on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket, as higher US interest rates weigh on risk assets.
The same market assigns Bitcoin a 70% chance of reaching $80,000 at some point before the end of September 2026, suggesting traders expect considerable short-term volatility rather than a clear directional trend.
Bitcoin was trading just below $77,000 on Friday, 18 September, more than a third below its record high of around $126,000 reached in October 2025. The cryptocurrency briefly fell to about $75,240 following this week’s Federal Reserve decision.
The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and indicated that one further rate increase could take place before the end of 2026, while signalling no rate cuts until 2027.
Higher interest rates can put pressure on Bitcoin and other speculative assets by increasing returns available from lower-risk investments and supporting the US dollar.
Despite the sell-off, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reportedly attracted around $987 million of net inflows during early September 2026, suggesting institutional demand has not disappeared.
For the remainder of September 2026, Polymarket bettors assign an 18% chance of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 before 30 September and an 11% chance of falling to $70,000 before the same deadline.
For investors, the prediction-market pricing therefore applies only to the remaining days of September, rather than representing longer-term Bitcoin forecasts. With Bitcoin already trading close to $75,000, monetary policy and broader risk sentiment remain the principal near-term drivers.
