SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Friday 16th January 2026

Gold and Silver rise to fresh highs, lifted in Asia by retail buying and ETF investment

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls: – SP Angel ranked No1 for Precious Metals in the 2025

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Drilling underway at Manna Hill

First Majestic Silver (AG CN) – Los Gatos acquisition supports higher silver production

Harena Rare Earths* (HREE LN) – Investment by RAB Capital

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN – Kamoa-Kakula meets revised guidance, 380-420kt guided for 2026

Kinross Gold (KGC US) – Internal project pipeline supports 2mozpa target

Rome Resources (RMR LN) – Progress report on Bisie North drilling

China Lunar New Year – Tue, 17 Feb 2026

Gold (US$4,604/oz) and Silver (US$92/oz) rise to fresh highs lifted in Asia by retail buying and ETF investment

• Gold hit a new peak of $4,685/oz at 23:02 last night driven higher by Chinese investors and ETF buying
• Gold ETFs 99.5moz vs 99.4moz previous
• Gold bullion continues to see premium prices in China on demand for the Lunar New Year celebrations which start on Tue, 17 Febueary.
• In India dealers are reported to be offering discounts of around $12/oz to official peak prices lower than last week’s premium of $6/oz as demand slips at higher prices (Reuters)
• Silver prices hit a new peak of just over $95/oz at around 1am before settling back to $92/oz
• Silver ETFs 852.7moz vs 855.1moz previous

Nickel (US$18,200/t) slides from 12 month highs as Indonesia guides on ore production quotas

• Nickel prices rallied sharply through January from $14,500/t to $18,800/t as Indonesia cracked down on mining operations.
• Indonesia had halted mining permits amid concerns over environmental damage and low margins.
• Indonesia has been a major cause of nickel’s weak price over the past few years.
• Bloomberg reported yesterday that the Government is set to issue quotas of 250-260mt of nickel ore in 2026.
• 2025 had targeted 379mt.
• This has resulted in expectations of tighter markets into 2026 given higher domestic production needs for ore.
• Indonesia currently produces c.70% of global nickel supply.

IG TV – Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly:  https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn

Currencies

US$1.1613/eur vs 1.1632/eur previous. Yen 158.01/$ vs 158.69/$. SAr 16.379/$ vs 16.413/$. $1.340/gbp vs $1.344/gbp. 0.670/aud vs 0.669/aud. CNY 6.968/$ vs 6.969/$.

Dollar Index 99.29 vs 99.17 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,604/oz vs US$4,604/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.5moz vs 99.4moz previous

Platinum US$2,352/oz vs US$2,355/oz previous

Palladium US$1,760/oz vs US$1,808/oz previous

Silver US$91.1/oz vs US$89.7/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 852.7moz vs 855.1moz previous

Rhodium US$10,100/oz vs US$10,100/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,909/t vs US$13,015/t previous

Aluminium US$3,137/t vs US$3,153/t previous

Nickel US$18,200/t vs US$18,280/t previous

Zinc US$3,265/t vs US$3,290/t previous

Lead US$2,078/t vs US$2,077/t previous

Tin US$50,000/t vs US$53,530/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$63.8/bbl vs US$64.2/bbl previous

• US Henry Hub prices edged lower afters the EIA reported a below consensus estimate 71bcf w/w draw to 3,185bcf (-90bcf exp), with storage inventories now 1.0% above last year’s level and 3.4% above the five-year average.
• The Leviathan project partners have reached a Final Investment Decision (FID) to expand the production capacity of the field from 12bcm to ~21bcm/annum, which is budgeted to cost $2.36bn and includes drilling three additional offshore wells, adding additional subsea infrastructure, and enhancing the treatment facilities on the offshore Israel Leviathan production platform.
• EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW) has decided to write off €1.2bn associated with the proposed 3GW Mona and Morgan offshore wind projects in the UK Irish Sea after failing to be awarded CfDs in this week’s AR7. The Company also identified deteriorating conditions such as significant cost increases across the supply chain, higher interest rates and ongoing project implementation risks.

Natural Gas €34.4/MWh vs €32.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.1/lb vs $83.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.4/t vs US$107.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.8/t vs US$465.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$232.0/t vs US$232.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.5/t vs US$110.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$97,942/t vs US$96,497/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,688/t vs US$22,686/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,050/t vs US$2,050/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,158/mtu vs US$1,138/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$107/lb vs US$106/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.1/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,127/t vs US$1,126/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EV & Battery News

WSJ reports that Ford in discussion with BYD for battery supply

• Ford is in talks with China’s BYD to potentially buy batteries for use in some of its hybrid vehicles, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
• Discussions are ongoing and no agreement has been reached, but one scenario being explored is Ford sourcing BYD batteries for markets outside the US.
• The move comes as Ford struggles with weakening EV demand and is shifting focus toward cheaper models and hybrids
• If concluded, the deal could give Ford access to lower-cost battery technology and help it compete with Chinese rivals.
• The talks have already drawn political criticism in the US, with at least one trade adviser warning about supply-chain and national-security risks from deeper ties with a Chinese supplier.

Company News:

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.05p, Mkt Cap £39m – Drilling underway at Manna Hill

• Cobra Resources reports that drilling is now underway at its Manna Hill project in South Australia.
• The company has permits for up to 50 holes and the Stage 1 drilling programme is expected to comprise up to 15 holes (~3,000m) to test:
  • The “depth and strike continuity of existing Blue Rose Skarn mineralisation where the last hole drilled intersected 48m @ 2.3% Cu and 0.79 g/t Au from 11m”; and
  • The “Neptune Rose Skarn – A ~1.2km chargeability anomaly”; and
  • A porphyry target at Black Baccara defined by geophysics an including a “conductive and chargeable pipe structure, interpreted as a conjugate fault that intersects the skarn unit”.
• Today’s announcement explains that this initial drilling is expected to take two weeks and that assay results are expected to be available in March.
• Further drilling will be dependent on the results from the initial work.
• The company has previously explained that it has a “12-month option to acquire the Manna Hill Project” where the IP has shown two large scale chargeability anomalies in an area “where existing drilling has intersected skarn hosted copper-gold mineralisation across 1.6km of strike immediately adjacent to a geophysical anomaly interpretated as a porphyry intrusion”.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, described Manna Hill as “a significant opportunity for Cobra … [and said that the drilling is] … targeting a scalable copper discovery”.

Conclusion: Drill testing of IP anomalies at the Manna Hill project in South Australia is now underway with results from the initial phase of the programme expected in March.

First Majestic Silver (AG CN) C$28.27, Mkt Cap C$10bn – Los Gatos acquisition supports higher silver production

• Silver major First Majestic reported 31moz AgEq produced over FY25, up 43%yoy.
• This included 15.4moz Ag, 147koz Au, 57mlb Zn, 32.3mlb Pb and 902klb Cu.
• Q4 production of 7.8moz AgEq broken down into:
  • Los Gatos: 2moz AgEq
  • Santa Elena: 2.3moz AgEq
  • San Dimas: 2.4moz AgEq
  • La Encantada: 1moz AgEq
• First Majestic guides for 2026 at:
  • 13-14.4moz Ag, 116-129koz Au, 34-38mlb Pb, 52-58mlb Zn and 1.1-1.3mlb Cu
  • Consolidated AgEq AISC of $26-28/oz.
• CAPEX for 2026 guided at $212-236m.
• 266,000m of exploration drilling planned, with 117,000m targeted at San Dimas, 78,000m at Santa Elena and 61,000m at Los Gatos.

Harena Rare Earths* (HREE LN) 1.97p, Mkt cap £11m – Investment by RAB Capital

• Harena Rare Earths plc reports the completion of an investment of £450,000 by RAB Capital into Harena at £0.015/s.
• Harena is evaluating the Ampasindava ionic clay rare earth project in Madagascar.
• Ampasindava is an ionic clay deposit similar to the majority of supply from China and is seen as a major non-Chinese strategic asset hosting heavy rare earths including NdPr for magnet production.
• The deposit offers potential for low-cost heap leaching using ammonium sulfate which is environmentally preferable.
• Management are progressing through advancing through metallurgical testwork to take the project through to full feasibility.
• The company will have 592,651,018 shares.

*SP Angel act as  broker to Harena

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) C$16.42, Mkt Cap C$23.3bn – Kamoa-Kakula meets revised guidance, 380-420kt guided for 2026

• Ivanhoe Mines, who operate the Kamoa Kakula mine in DRC, report 2025 production results and provide 2026 guidance.
• Kamoa Kakula produced 389kt Cu across all three phases over the year, milling 14.2mt at 3.15% Cu with 86% recoveries, with 3kt produced in the slag concentrator.
• Ivanhoe had revised guidance to 380-420kt.
• Q4 production stood at 133kt, with 3.7mt milled at 4.1% Cu and 87% recoveries.
• Kamoa-Kakula guidance for 2026 reiterated at 380-420k.
• 2027 Kamoa-Kakula guidance reiterated at 500-540kt Cu, returning to 550kt over the medium and long term.
• Ivanhoe reports the stage 2 dewatering programme is complete, with stage three now underway, expected to continue into 2Q26.
• Kipushi recorded 203.2kt Zn production over 2025, with Q4 production rising to 61kt vs 53kt prior quarter.
• Kipushi is guided for 240-290kt Zn production over 2026.
• Platreef Phase 1 concentrator is advancing, with Shaft 3 due ready for hoisting early 2Q26, with concentrator expected to be in steady-state by mid-year.

Kinross Gold (KGC US) $33.25, Mkt Cap $40.0bn – Internal project pipeline supports 2mozpa target

• Kinross Gold reports it is proceeding with three major growth projects, Round Mountain Phase X, Bald Mountain Redbird 2, and Curlew in Washington.
• Management expects the three projects to help maintain the Company’s 2mozpa production target.
• Round Mountain Phase X:
  • Extends mine life with 1.4moz AuEq at Round Mountain
  • Incremental production of 140kozpa to 2038
  • AISC expected at $1,680/oz AuEq
  • NPV5 of $1.9bn and IRR of 67% at $4,300/oz Au
• Curlew:
  • 100kozpa from 2028 via a restart of the Kettle River mill processing Curlew underground deposit ore
  • First production in 2028
  • AISC expected at $1,726/oz
  • Post-tax NPV5 of $1.2bn and IRR of 44% at $4,300/oz
• Bald Mountain Redbird 2:
  • Extending mine life at Bald Mountain via Redbird 2 and five satellite deposits containing 643koz of production
  • Extends mine life into early 2032
  • AISC of $1,466/oz and post-tax NPV5 of $1bn and IRR of 58%.
• Combined IRR expected at 55% and incremental post-tax NPV5 of $4.1bn using $4,300/oz.
• Red Bird 2 supports a mine life extension of Balt Mountain, with AISC expected at $1,466/oz.
• Phase X and Curlew target higher-grade underground ounces at lower capital intensity.
• CAPEX of $425m in 2026 is guided, funded by internal cash flows.
• Total global CAPEX for 2026 guided at $1.5bn.

Rome Resources (RMR LN) 0.22p, Mkt Cap £15m – Progress report on Bisie North drilling

• Rome Resources reports that drilling is underway. at its Bisie North exploration project in DRC.
• Two rigs have been deployed, and the first two holes of the programme have been completed with a third hole approaching target depth.
• Initial results reported today show that hole KBD-019 at the Kalayi prospect encountered “significant tin mineralisation between 129 metres and 135 metres” before termination of the hole at ~190m depth. A 26m wide zone within this intersection included “disseminated cassiterite between 114.0 metres and 140.7 metres depth, supporting the continuity of mineralisation at Kalayi”.
• Hole MADD-034 at the Mt Agoma prospect was completed at 94m depth and Hole MADD-035, which is being drilled from the same collar location, “is currently at approximately 190 metres depth and progressing within the main Mont Agoma mineralised zone”.
• The drilling follows the initial mineral resource estimate (MRE), which was announced in October, showing a CIM compliant ‘Inferred’ estimate of 3.16mt at an average grade of 1.45% copper, 0.19% tin, 2.72% zinc &14.3g/t silver at Mont Agoma plus an additional 0.33m inferred tonnes at an average grade of 1.36% tin at Kalayi.
• Chief Executive, Paul Barret, said that “the intersection of a tin-rich zone at depth … [at Kalayi] … is consistent with the Company’s structural model and … [supports] … expectations for high-grade extensions beneath the known mineralisation”.
• He confirmed that “Drilling at Mont Agoma is also progressing well as we move toward the deeper parts of the system where we believe tin grades may strengthen”.

Conclusion: Drilling is underway at Bisie North to follow up the initial MRE released in October.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

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Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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