Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Anglesey Mining, African Pioneer, First Class Metals, Genel, Goodwin, Helix, IG Group, London Bitcoin, Oxford Biomedica, Seraphim, Sunrise, Tekcapital.
Markets remain in something of a waiting room while the situation around Iran develops. The lack of a decisive catalyst has left several major indices holding firm near support, while gold has improved sharply and crypto continues to drift sideways.
The main theme is simple enough: key support levels are holding in many places, but momentum is uneven. That makes discipline around breakout and breakdown levels especially important.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Key Takeaways
- FTSE 100 support near 10,830 keeps a move towards 11,000 in play.
- Gold has improved sharply and could target its 200-day average near 4,500.
- Bitcoin remains range-bound between 61,000 support and 67,000 resistance.
- Tekcapital, Helix and Genel need breakouts to confirm their recovery scenarios.
Major Market Charts
FTSE 100: Support Holds While 11,000 Remains the Prize
The FTSE 100 is finding support around 10,830 to 10,835. That is encouraging while the market waits for clarity on geopolitical developments, even if the usual rule applies: when uncertainty drags on too long, it can start to go wrong.
The upside focus remains on 11,000. A sustainable move above that area would open the way towards 11,400, the upper boundary of the rising trend channel in place since late February. That would be the best-case target for the end of next month.
On the downside, the ideal outcome would be for the index to remain above 10,760, the initial July resistance level. It may be optimistic to expect no move below that point at all, but it remains an important line in the sand.
DAX: Strong Weekly Performance, With 26,000 Acting as Near-Term Support
The DAX has put in a strong performance during the week, although momentum has eased a little more recently. The previous end-of-month target at 26,300 has already been met.
As long as the market continues to behave itself, the next upside target is around 27,300 by month end. Support near 26,000 is currently holding, which keeps the near-term technical picture relatively healthy.
If things turn sour, the retracement area to monitor is late-July resistance around 25,600.
Dow Jones: Holding Above Former Resistance, But Momentum Is Less Convincing
The Dow has effectively reached the ambitious projection based on the November resistance line. The market came close to 54,800, making the previously optimistic target look rather less fanciful than it did.
The immediate technical requirement is for the Dow to remain above the old resistance area at 53,200. If that level holds, a further push towards 55,000 remains on the cards.
There is one warning sign. The index made a higher high while the Relative Strength Index made a lower high. That negative divergence can be an early indication that an interim top is forming. The key is to stay above the latest gap around 53,000. A fall back below that level would weaken the current bullish setup.
For background on this momentum measure, see Investopedia’s explanation of the Relative Strength Index.
Bitcoin: Still Caught in a 61,000 to 67,000 Range
Bitcoin has been rather disappointing in the sense that it has not done very much in either direction for close to three weeks. That said, it remains above a rising 50-day moving average and is just on the constructive side of the RSI 50 level.
The immediate upside objective is a retest of post-June resistance around 67,000. It would be a surprise to see a great deal more than that in the short term.
Support sits at the early-July low around 61,000. Until either boundary gives way, Bitcoin remains a range trade between those two markers.
Ethereum: A Last Chance to Build on Improving Technicals
Ethereum is being given one more chance to show some life. It has moved above a rising 50-day moving average around 1,794, while the RSI is in the mid-to-upper 50s. That is generally a constructive zone from which an upside move can develop.
The best-case target is the 200-day moving average near 2,060. Reaching that level by month end would be a very encouraging outcome, but the market remains relatively subdued for now.
Gold: A Transformational Improvement
Gold has delivered the strongest technical improvement among the major charts this week. While it holds above recent support around 4,220, the path points higher.
The next major objective is the 200-day moving average, currently near 4,493 to 4,500. At the current pace, that level could be reached by the end of the month.
A continued advance in bullion would also be a welcome boost for gold shares, which often move ahead of the underlying metal when sentiment starts to turn.
WTI Crude Oil: The 50-Day Average May Cap the Bounce
WTI crude has been dancing either side of its 200-day moving average. Because that longer-term average is rising, the expectation was for a move towards the 50-day line near 79.84. So far, that scenario appears to be playing out.
However, the market is still awaiting definitive news from the Middle East, and the RSI remains below its neutral 50 level. That suggests the 50-day average could be the practical upside limit for now.
Below support around 74.50, there remains a risk of one final dip towards $70, even if oil later stages a much stronger move towards the $100 area. The level to watch closely is therefore 74.50.
UK and AIM Share Charts
- Anglesey Mining: Building Above Broken Resistance: Anglesey Mining has staged a decent recovery, with both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages rising. The shares have broken above a resistance line from December at roughly 4.75p and are trading above the 200-day average, just below 5p. The important point is to remain above the June breakout area at 5.6p. The longer that level holds, the stronger the case becomes for a retest of the old December resistance zone and a possible move towards 9p to 10p by the end of next month.
- African Pioneer: Consolidating Constructively: African Pioneer has made good on its recovery and is finding support above the old 1.6p target. The shares remain within a broader range between 1.6p and 2.4p. The technical picture becomes more encouraging the longer the price stays above 2p. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising, while the RSI has bounced above 50. That gives the chart a firmer foundation than it has had for some time.
- First Class Metals: Support at 2p Offers a Recovery Opportunity: First Class Metals suffered a near-vertical decline from the beginning of last month, which explains why the chart has remained under close attention. The positive development is that the shares appear to have found support at 2p, a level dating back to January. As long as 2p remains intact, the first recovery target is the 50-day moving average around 3.12p. That could be achievable by the end of the month, or sooner if momentum improves.
- Genel: Triangle Breakout Points Towards 65p and Possibly 68p: Genel has been surprisingly resilient given the softness in oil. The shares have reached the top of a triangle formation around 59p. A breakout above that area points initially to 65p, where resistance from December comes into play. Given the current strength of the shares, a move towards 68p by the end of the month, or even sooner, is possible.
- Goodwin: A Strong Rally, But Key Levels Must Hold: Goodwin has had plenty of thrills and spills. The major spill came in March, when the rug was pulled, but the current picture is a rising trend channel from that month. The top of the channel lies near £250. The longer the shares can hold above the initial March support area around £216, the greater the chance of reaching that target. There is a complication. The shares are currently below that support level and need to remain above more recent broken resistance around £194. Following the pullback and gap fill, it may be that much of the available rally has already occurred after the sharp recovery from the April and May support area.
- Helix: Production Could Be the Crucial Catalyst: Helix looks encouraging. The shares gapped higher and have held that gap, which is a positive sign. A break above recent resistance at 26p would generate an end-of-month target of around 31p. The company has also produced the magic word: production. In the helium sector, companies can often attract attention simply by promising helium rather than delivering it. Actual production is therefore the sort of development that could make the technical move more meaningful.
- IG Group: Oversold, But Still Facing a Crucial Support Test: IG Group has fallen like a stone, leaving shareholders and management with little to celebrate. The immediate issue is whether the shares can hold the main £12 to £13 support area. If that zone fails, there could be another leg lower towards the turn-of-the-year support range around £11 to £12. The major uptrend line also comes in near £11.20, making that area a potential buying zone for those prepared to wait for a technical base. The more encouraging feature is the RSI, now around 13. That is as oversold as the shares have been since 2023, when the previous major rally began. It does not guarantee an immediate bounce, but it does suggest that the downside may be becoming increasingly stretched.
- London Bitcoin: A Break Above 1.7p Would Improve the Picture: London Bitcoin is attempting to break out of a falling trend channel. The shares are doing reasonably well, but the key resistance level is 1.7p. A move above 1.7p would raise the prospect of a gap fill towards 2.2p by the end of next month. The company will need to build on its recent positive Nevada news if that chart recovery is to gain proper momentum.
- Oxford Biomedica: Watch 487p After the Initial Sell-Off: Oxford Biomedica gave shareholders an unwelcome shock, but the price action suggests the initial sell-off may have been overdone. The shares broke above the initial resistance level at 487p. An end-of-day close above 487p would put 510p to 520p into play, representing roughly half of the overnight gap down. Given how far the shares had already retreated from their £9-plus peak, the sharp reaction may have reflected market makers pushing the move too far. The 487p area is now doubly important: former intraday resistance should become support, and a close above it is needed to keep the recovery scenario alive.
- Seraphim Space Investment Trust: 181p Is the Immediate Test: Seraphim Space Investment Trust fell sharply following news around a potential SpaceX IPO. The chart now comes down to whether the shares can clear the 50-day moving average around 181p. A move through that level, either immediately or during the following week, would point towards 208p to 210p. That is the top of the rising trend channel that has been in place since December.
- Tekcapital: A Gap Higher Is a Useful Early Sign: Tekcapital has been a complete dog for some time, but the chart is beginning to show early recovery potential. The shares gapped higher and then bounced above that gap around 4.25p, which is constructive. The initial target is 5p, although that would only take the shares to the top of the downtrend. A decisive end-of-day or weekly close above 5p is required to open the path towards the 200-day moving average near 7.8p by the end of next month. That 7.8p area is the ultimate upside target if the downtrend can be broken. Conversely, a move back below 4p would negate the bullish scenario, despite the bullish RSI divergence that has developed into the recent turnaround.
What Matters Most From Here
Several charts are at important decision points. The FTSE needs to preserve its footing above the 10,760 to 10,830 area, the Dow needs to avoid falling back through 53,000, and Bitcoin remains trapped until it can escape the 61,000 to 67,000 range.
Gold is the standout improver, with 4,220 providing the key support level beneath a possible move towards 4,500. Oil remains more uncertain, with 74.50 the level that needs to hold if a deeper retest of $70 is to be avoided.
Among the smaller shares, the strongest setups are those where the price is holding above broken resistance, maintaining a gap higher, or approaching a clear breakout trigger. As ever, a target only matters while the support level underpinning it remains intact.
Technical analysis is a tool for assessing price behaviour and risk, not a guarantee of future performance. A useful primer on the role of moving averages is available from Investopedia’s moving average guide.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
