SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 20th April 2023

Gold hovers around $2,000/oz on sticky inflation concerns

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) BUY – CLICK FOR PDF – Historic and binding agreement signed with Anglo American on Zambian joint venture

Centamin (CEY LN) – 2023 guidance confirmed as Sukari delivers solid Q1 performance

Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – CEO describes progress on the sale of La India.

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – BGS report concludes Galantas Gold areas may host Critical Raw Materials

Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Drilling result from the Ramses target

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – £195.5k investment by Chair and Salary Sacrifice Issue

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Record Q1 iron ore shipments from the Pilbara as Chinese steel makers push blast furnace capacity.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 17.9p – Public consultation period completion

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Lubuila Copper Project update and start of 2023 Zambian exploration season

URU Metals* (URU LN) – Zeb Nickel starts airborne geophysics over Zeb project area

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) – Update on $1.64bn project financing

Gold – $1,999/oz – Gold subdued below $2,000/oz mark as traders look for clues in Fed comments

• Gold prices have failed to break through $2,000/oz again following the Fed’s release of its Beige Book survey.
• The survey revealed marginally higher levels of recession concerns from Fed members, supporting gold’s appeal.
• However, the market has reduced its expectations for Fed rate cuts over the next six months, with a 25bp hike in May all but priced in.

Tesla to slash EV prices further as margins slide

• Elon Musk stated that Tesla has ‘taken a view that pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice’ as opposed to ‘a lower volume and higher margin’ model.
• Operating margins for Tesla fell 11.4% in Q1 vs 19.2% for the same period in 2022.
• Tesla expects to deliver 1.9m EVs in 2023.
• The price of a Model 3 in the US has fallen $7,000 since December.

Iron ore pares gains as Chinese demand remains weak and Rio boosts supply outlook

• Iron ore prices continue to suffer from weak Chinese demand, with Beijing sticking to its crackdown on ‘unreasonable’ price speculation.
• China is currently in its peak construction period, although this is not reflected in steel prices, signalling a lack of demand for new projects and ineffective stimulatory measures.
• Rio is also set to keep supply buoyant, ramping up shipments in Q1 as its new Australian mine accelerates production.

Major lender ICBC Standard Bank warns over Chinese commodity demand rebound

• ICBC Standard Bank, a venture between major lenders in China and Africa, has noted that a full demand recovery in China will require more sustained service sector growth.
• Its head economist notes that ‘scarred’ consumption from households remains a primary concern.

Mining pushes Ghana to beat economists’ growth expectations

• Ghana’s GDP grew 3.7% vs expectations of 2.6%.
• The improvement was driven by 13.4% growth in the quarter, yoy.
• Ghana’s Cedi strengthened again on te news, whilst the yield on Ghana’s $1bn 2026 eurobonds fell to 50.9%.

 Economics

China – Commercial lenders kept lending rates unchanged in line with earlier decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged as the latest GDP data showed an improving growth momentum, Bloomberg reports.

• The one year prime rate was kept at 3.65% for the eighth consecutive month while a five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was left unchanged at 4.3%, also in line with estimates.
• 1 Year Loan Prime Rate: 3.65% v 3.65% March and 3.65% est.
• 5 Year Loan Prime Rate: 4.30% v 4.30% March and 4.30% est.

Japan – Exports continued to contract on volume basis with declines in the EU and the US accelerating.

• Overseas shipments in volume terms were down 8.1%yoy in March with all major regions posting declines including the US (-9.2%), the EU (-12.7%), Asia ex China (-10.8%) and China (-20.6%).
• On a positive side, the pace of declines in exports to China seems to be slowing down while lower energy costs and a stronger yen helped to bring trade deficit to the lowest in a year.
• Exports (%yoy): 4.3 v 6.5 February and 2.4 est.
• Imports (%yoy): 7.3 v 8.3 February and 11.6 est.
• Trade Balance (JPY bn): -755 v -898 February and 1,295 est.

UK – Markets are now fully pricing in two more 25bp hike in May and June with a potential for another one later in the year taking the benchmark rate to 5.0%.

• Expectations for further tightening increased after inflation data released earlier in the week came in higher than expected.

 Currencies

US$1.0955/eur vs 1.0971/eur yesterday. Yen 134.50/$ vs 134.58/$. SAr 18.194/$ vs 18.201/$. $1.243/gbp vs $1.247/gbp. 0.672/aud vs 0.672/aud. CNY 6.886/$ vs 6.891/$.

Dollar Index 101.95 vs 101.78 yesterday.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,999/oz vs US$1,995/oz yesterday

Gold ETFs 93.4moz vs US$93.4moz yesterday

Platinum US$1,085/oz vs US$1,071/oz yesterday

Palladium US$1,603/oz vs US$1,632/oz yesterday

Silver US$25.20/oz vs US$25.00/oz yesterday

Rhodium US$7,900/oz vs US$7,900/oz yesterday

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 8,900/t vs US$8,939/t yesterday

Aluminium US$ 2,432/t vs US$2,415/t yesterday

Nickel US$ 25,340/t vs US$25,695/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 2,764/t vs US$2,845/t yesterday

Lead US$ 2,144/t vs US$2,146/t yesterday

Tin US$ 27,210/t vs US$27,350/t yesterday

Energy:           

Oil US$81.9/bbl vs US$84.4/bbl yesterday

• Crude oil prices edged lower as the EIA reported a 4.5mb US crude inventory draw last week, offset by a 1.3mb gasoline build and little change to distillate stocks, with refinery utilisation increasing 1.7% to 91%.
• European energy prices with EU natural gas storage levels rose 1% w/w to 56.6% full (vs 36.4% 5-year average), with builds in France and Italy accounting for over half the 7TWh increase to 638TWh.

Natural Gas US$2.224/mmbtu vs US$2.358/mmbtu yesterday

Uranium UXC US$51.00/lb vs US$51.00/lb yesterday

Bulk:

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$117.3/t vs US$117.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$583.0/t vs US$586.2/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$132.0/t vs US$132.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$184.5/t vs US$183.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$286.0/t vs US$286.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$34,930/t vs US$34,930/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$68,977/t vs US$68,936/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,307/t vs US$23,293/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,410/t vs US$4,410/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,353/t vs US$1,355/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$323/mtu vs US$323/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$780/t vs US$780/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 8.9/lb vs US$8.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 36.25/kg vs US$36.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$345/t vs US$345/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$101.2/t vs US$100.0/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$415.0/t vs US$415.0/t

Battery News

CATL – CATL develop new high-capacity battery for aviation

• CATL, the world’s largest lithium-ion battery manufacturer (~40% of EV battery sales) has developed a safe and qualified Li-ion battery for aviation.
• The company also aims to start production of a semi-solid state ‘condensed matter’ battery for electric vehicle uses.
• While we do not know the exact chemistry of the new ‘condensed matter’ batteries we suspect they may be similar to the OXIS Energy’s 450Wh/kg, also for aviation.
• The new 500Wh/kg battery has a condensed electrolyte along with new anode and separator materials.
• Currently EV batteries run at under 300Wh/kg.
• If CATL is able to manufacture its new batteries at close to the cost of current battery packs then it could develop a significant advantage within the Li-ion battery industry.
• We are seeing news on potential new battery developments on a very regular basis suggesting that battery technology will advance significantly over the next few years, though it will take longer for accreditation and for automotive manufacturers to adopt new battery chemistry and technology.

Company News

Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) 4.32p, Mkt Cap £53m – Historic and binding agreement signed with Anglo American on Zambian joint venture

BUY – CLICK FOR PDF

(Arc holds 67% of Unico Minerals Limited with 33% held by Kopara Investments. Arc effectively holds 72.5% of Zaco, 66% of Handa in Zambia and 66% of Cheyeza license)

(Arc holds 75% in Alvis-Crest (Proprietary) Limited which holds two licenses in the Kalahari Copper Belt, known as Virgo covering >210km2, around 10km south east the recently commissioned Khoemacau Copper in Botswana.)

• Arc Minerals report the signing of a binding joint venture agreement with Anglo American on its exploration assets in Zambia.
• Under the joint venture Anglo American will invest up to $88.5m, including up to $14.5m in cash to earn a 70% interest.

• Arc, through its subsidiary Unico will retain a meaningful 30% stake in any exploration discovery within the joint venture.
• Anglo American has the right to retain 51% ownership by funding US$24m of exploration within 3½ years and phased cash payments of US$14.5m.
• The Joint Venture Agreement, including related investments and all cash payments, remain subject to certain conditions precedent being satisfied, including normal regulatory approvals in Zambia.
• We understand all parties want to finalise the transaction as soon as possible and for drilling to begin at the start of the imminent dry season.
• Under the jv agreement $3.5m of cash is due on closing with further payments of $1m on each of the next three anniversaries with a further $8m to be paid at the end of the period.
• When the first phase is complete, Anglo American will have the right to retain an additional ownership interest of 9% to raise its ownership to 60% with another $20m of exploration spend within 2 years of Phase I and an additional 10% by funding $30m within 2 years of the Phase II.
• Anglo appear to have a definite plan for development of copper to the west of Zambia inspired by Dave Wood, the discovery manager for Anglo in Zambia.

Conclusion:  Arc has worked with Anglo American’s geological team and lawyers towards the signing of Anglo’s first exploration joint venture in Zambia since Anglo left Zambia and the Konkola Copper Mine in August 2002.

The historic agreement marks the return and restoration of relations between Anglo American and the Zambian government. The settlement is a meaningful event for both Zambia and Anglo American with both parties working to ensure mutual respect and cooperation.

The sheer scale of investment, as indicated in the jv agreement, should enable Anglo to fully explore Arc’s, large and highly prospective package of licenses in the West of Zambia. Arc’s licenses are in the Domes region of the Zambian copperbelt which supports the giant Kamoa, Sentinel, Lumwana and Kolweizi copper mines. Arc claims two significant early discoveries at Cheyeza East and Muswema North.

We can see other majors following Anglo American into Zambia and other highly prospective regions as they ramp up exploration in order to discover the next generation of copper and nickel mines. While automotive manufacturers struggle with efforts to thrift valuable commodities the world still looks to be a very long way short of the metal tonnages required to meet the demands of the EV revolution.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker. An SP Angel analyst has driven across the Zambian copper belt, flying the British flag, to visit Arc’s licenses West of Solwezi.

Centamin (CEY LN) 105.1p, Mkt Cap £1,233m – 2023 guidance confirmed as Sukari delivers solid Q1 performance

• Centamin reports that its Sukari mine in Egypt produced 105,875oz of gold at a cash cost of US$937/oz and all-in-sustaining costs of US$1,348/oz.
• The company maintains its 2023 production and cost guidance of 450-480,000oz at cash costs in the range US$840-990/oz and all-in-sustaining costs between US$1,250-1,400/oz.
• The production comes from the processing of 3mt of ore at a grade of 1.2g/t gold (Q1 2022 -2.95mt at a grade of 1.07g/t) and represents a 14% increase on the 93,109oz produced in Q1 2022.
• The “higher production volumes YoY were driven by increased underground productivity as mining rates ramped up following the transition to owner mining in the Sukari underground during H1 2022”.
• We see that underground ore production of 236,000t “represented a 53% increase in ore tonnes YoY and a 13% increase in grade YoY” confirming the success of the change to owner operation.
• Centamin confirms the strength of its financial position saying that it held “cash and liquid assets … [of] … US$155 million as at 31 March 2023”.
• The company confirms that it is continuing metallurgical test-work and evaluation of the appropriate process route as part of its pre-feasibility assessment of the Doropo project in Cote d’Ivoire.  The PFS is expected to be completed in June 2023.
• Commenting on its exploration of the Eastern Desert licences in Egypt, Centamin says that it has identified five targets “in the Nugrus block following closer spaced geological soil sampling and mapping … [and that it intends] … to commence drill testing the targets later in Q2, with initial assay results expected from Q4”.

Conclusion: Q1 production from Centamin’s Sukari mine vindicates last year’s decision to move to owner operation in the underground mine with a more than 50% increase in underground ore tonnage,  Underground sources are still under 10% of the total ore production but should form an increasing proportion over time.

 Condor Gold* (CNR LN) 33.5p, Mkt Cap £61m – CEO describes progress on the sale of La India.

CLICK FOR PDF

• Condor Gold’s CEO, Mark Child has discussed the progress of plans to sell its La India gold project in Nicaragua in an interview with Commodity TV at the Gold Forum in Zurich.  The interview is available on https://youtu.be/HMEX1ApmbbQ.
• Mr. Child says that there are 9 non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) in place and that the company has hosted three site visits by interested parties and has secured 4 non-binding letters of intent.
• Condor Gold is now seeking to advance to the process to the point where 2 or more parties enter binding agreements as a means of generating “competitive tension” in the bidding process.
• He also discusses the positive impact of gold prices around the US$2,000/oz level on a project base case assessment conducted using a US$1,600/oz price and says that the higher gold price could generate an additional US$200m EBITDA for the development of an open pit gold mine at La India at the La India open-pit which is expected to deliver an after-tax NPV5% of US$86.9m and IRR of 23%  from the investment of US$105.5m to mine a probable ore-reserve of 602,000oz of gold and 1.25moz of silver over an 8.4 years mine life at La India.
• Mr. Child comments that, in addition to the principal open pit development, which is “construction ready” and fully permitted, the project contains two additional satellite pits, also permitted, capable of increasing output to around 120,000oz pa and underground resources which could lift production further to around 150,000oz pa.
• He also points out that timing remains subject to uncertainty as interested parties conduct due-diligence but expresses optimism that a transaction can be concluded this year.

Conclusion: Condor Gold’s plans to sell the La India project in Nicaragua have attracted interest from nine parties under non-disclosure terms and are now moving towards the identification of those prepared to make binding offers.  Given the construction-ready status of the La India project, the recent increase in gold prices should provide additional impetus to the process and spark interest in the wider exploration potential of Condor Gold’s land holdings in the district.  We await further news and advise interested investors to view the full interview.

*SP Angel acts as a broker to Condor Gold

 Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 24.5p, Mkt Cap £27m – BGS report concludes Galantas Gold areas may host Critical Raw Materials

• The Company highlighted results of the latest report produced by the British Geological Survey (BGS) on “Potential for Critical Raw Material (CRM) Prospectivity in the UK”.
• The BGS identified areas of prospective geology to potentially host CRM deposits that may improve nation’s security of supply for those materials.
• In particular, the report suggested that two areas where Galantas is currently active including mid-County Tyrone, Northern Ireland, and the area around Loch Maree near Gairloch, Scotland, are prospective for such CRMs as graphite, antimony, bismuth, molybdenum, tellurium, cobalt, manganese, gallium, germanium and indium.
• A copy of the report may be found here: https://ukcmic.org/reports/ukcmic-potential-for-critical-raw-material-prospectivity-in-the-uk-cr23024.pdf

Conclusion: The BGS study highlights the underexplored nature of certain parts of the UK, particularly in terms of the CRMs, offering a potential for a mineral discovery and an opportunity to improve domestic security of CRMs supply with two areas where Galantas is active featured in the report.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold

 Greatland Gold (GGP LN) 8.15p, Mkt Cap £400m – Drilling result from the Ramses target

• Greatland Gold reports a drilling intersection from a single hole completed at the Ramses target area which is located within its wholly-owned Rudall licence area 20km SE of its flagship project at Havieron within the Paterson region of WA.
• Hole RAD-002 intersected 18.25m at an average grade of 22.0g/t gold from a depth of 924m to the end of the hole at 942.25m with the hole terminating in mineralisation “due to drilling limitations”.
• The intersection includes a single metre assaying 393g/t gold at 926m depth, implying that the remaining 17.25m averaged around 0.5g/t.
• The hole was drilled towards the SE at an angle of 80⁰.
• Managing Director, Shaun Day, said that “While recognising the high-grade intercept is at depth, the strong gold mineralisation and supporting pathfinder geochemistry in consistently altered and veined basement sediments continues to highlight the outstanding prospectivity within Greatland’s tenement package and the Paterson Province in general”.
• He also said that the “results, together with our continual improvement in understanding of the covered basement geology, stratigraphy and structure, increase our confidence in the prospectivity of the region, and our ability to vector towards intrusion related and other styles of mineralised systems on our extensive ground holdings”.
• The company explains that “The presence of steep dipping veining within the mineralised zone increases the potential that the mineralisation extends to the top of the basement at approximately ~550m below surface. For context, the Havieron deposit occurs at ~420m below surface … [and says that it intends to follow up with] … further structural and geochemical work along with a downhole electromagnetic survey of hole RAD002 to identify any off-hole conductors … [and] …  refine the potential for the mineralisation to extend to a shallower position within the basement”.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.18p, Mkt cap £4.8m – CLICK FOR PDF –  £195.5k investment by Chair and Salary Sacrifice Issue

• Oriole’s Non-Executive Chair, Eileen Carr, has raised the Company £195.5k via a subscription, taking her holding to 5.33% of the issued share capital.
• 115,000,000 new ordinary shares will be issued at 0.17p/share, equivalent to the mid-price of Oriole’s stock yesterday.
• The additional funds will be used for working capital as the Cameroonian field season coming to an end.
• Working capital will be utilised to accelerate Oriole’s project-level funding strategy for its Eastern CLP licence.
• Eileen notes that the investment in Oriole ‘demonstrates my commitment to the success of Oriole and underlines my belief in the team and our assets.’
• In addition to the subscription by Eileen, the Company’s Board will be issued 7,655,885 in line with the previously announced salary sacrifice scheme.
• The Board has now committed to salary sacrifice totalling £133.5k of gross salaries, and the scheme will now increase the Board’s holding to 8.34% of Oriole’s share capital.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 5,461p, Mkt cap £69bn – Record Q1 iron ore shipments from the Pilbara as Chinese steel makers push blast furnace capacity.

• Rio Tinto reports record Q1 iron ore shipments of 82.5mt (on a 100% basis) which it says were “16% higher than the corresponding period of 2022, and a first quarter record, with stronger mine production and a drawdown of stocks”.
• The company produced 79.3mt or iron ore and says that it saw an 8% increase in iron ore prices over the quarter as “Chinese steelmakers ramped up their blast furnace capacity utilisation rates to more than 90%, a seasonal record”.
• Iron ore imports into China “hit a record 309 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2023, effectively unchanged from the volume imported during the prior quarter and 9% more than the first quarter of 2022”.
• Rio Tinto confirms that the ramp up of the new Gudai Darri iron ore mine “continues to progress well”. We understand that, at full capacity, Gudai Darri is expected to produce 43mtpa.
• The company is maintaining its current guidance of 320-335mt of iron ore shipments in 2023.
• Mined copper production of 145,000t matched that of Q1 2022 with a 36% decline in the contribution from Kennecott as a result of “the combined impact of record snowfall in the period and the failure of the conveyor belt that links the mine to the concentrator in March” offset by increased contributions from Escondida (up 6%) and Oyu Tolgoi which increased by “41% from the first quarter of 2022 due to concentrator maintenance in the prior period and higher copper head grades (0.49% vs. 0.40%)”.
• Rio Tinto confirms that Oyu Tolgoi achieved its “First sustainable underground production … during the period with 0.7 million tonnes of ore milled from the underground mine at an average copper head grade of 1.36%, and 9.6 million tonnes from the open pit with an average grade of 0.43%”.
• The copper concentrator at Kennecott is “expected to operate at reduced rates until the third quarter of 2023”.
• Rio Tinto is amending its copper guidance for 2023 to the range 590-640,000t from the previously reported 650-710,000t.
• Copper prices “rose 7% over the quarter to $4.05/lb, driven by a shift in sentiment associated with improved expectations on copper demand from China after the end of its zero-Covid policy … [while] … mine supply disruptions in Chile, Peru, Panama and Indonesia provided support to prices”.
• Bauxite output of 12.1mt from Weipa was 11% lower than in Q1 2022 due to “higher-than-average rainfall during the annual wet season … [as well as] … equipment downtime at both Weipa and Gove”.
• Rio Tinto says that it is maintaining “our bauxite production guidance at 54 to 57 million tonnes as we implement plans to recover lost production at both sites through the remainder of the year”.
• The ramp-up of smelter capacity at Kitimat helped deliver a 7% increase in aluminium output compared to Q1 2022 of 0.8mt. Guidance remains intact at 3.1-3.3mt for 2023.
• Commenting on the market for aluminium, Rio Tinto reports that the “LME cash aluminium price declined by 1% over the quarter, although the average price of $2,395/t was 3% higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. Global ex-China aluminium demand ended 2022 on a weak note, while China’s aluminium demand has improved over the quarter. Chinese reported inventories have declined steadily since their peak in early March, and hydropower constraints due to low reservoir levels in Southern China have prevented any smelter restarts”.
• Rio Tinto explains that “during the first quarter, whilst the global economy remained resilient … supported by an improving Chinese economic outlook, strong labour market and spending data in the US, and falling gas prices in Europe. However, inflation remains persistently high in the western world, and the risk of further rate hikes on the global economy remains”.
• Exploration during Q1 “focused on copper in Colombia, Chile, Zambia, US and Kazakhstan, lithium in the US and diamonds in Angola” and is continuing for nickel in Canada and in Finland.
• Work continues to progress the environmental permitting at the Resolution copper project in Arizona while drilling and community engagement progressed at the Winu copper project in WA.  Negotiations continue at Simandou while Rio Tinto is progressing consultations with “all stakeholders” at its Jadar lithium borate project in Serbia.
• Commenting on the highlights, Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm confirmed that Rio Tinto remains “focused on disciplined growth in materials the world needs for the energy transition, delivering first sustainable production from the underground mine at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and progressing early works on the Rincon lithium project in Argentina. We advanced the Simandou high grade iron ore project in Guinea with our partners, and entered into an agreement for a joint venture to unlock La Granja in Peru, one of the largest undeveloped copper projects in the world”.

Conclusion: Iron ore shipments reached record Q1 levels as steel-making bounces back in China. Rio Tinto is maintaining its 2023 production guidance across all commodities except copper where the Kennecott concentrator is expected to operate at reduced capacity until Q3.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 3.7p, Mkt Cap £62m – Public consultation period completion

BUY – 17.9p

• The Company completed an extended public consultation period regarding development of the flagship Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal.
• Project design review by the Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA) continues including updated permit application documentation and all the feedback from local stakeholders.
• The is looking forward to the APA’s DIA decision by 31 May this year.

Conclusion: The company cleared another milepost as the project is going through a permitting process with the DIA decision reiterated for the end of May.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and  Broker to Savannah Resources

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.17p, Mkt cap £3.1m – Lubuila Copper Project update and start of 2023 Zambian exploration season

• Tertiary Minerals provides an exploration update on its Zambian exploration season, highlighting the beginning of the 2023 Zambian field season.
• At Lubuila in Zambia, Tertiary has selected a soil sampling contractor and is engaging in tribal and community work this week.
• The team will collect 300 soil samples on a 400m by 400m offset grid and will use pXRF to analyse the samples in real time.
• The programme will target untested areas of the Lower Roan Group lithologies, which are the primary hosts of economic copper mineralisation in Zambia’s Copperbelt.
• Lubuila has provided encouraging aeromagnetic imagery and marks Tertiary’s first round of exploration this season in Zambia.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

URU Metals* (URU LN) 100p, Mkt cap £1.66m – Zeb Nickel starts airborne geophysics over Zeb project area

(URU Metals holds a 73.81% interest in Zeb Nickel Corp. URU Metals acts as a technical advisor to the project)

• ZEB Nickel Corp. a listed subsidiary of URU Metals reports the start of an airborne geophysical survey over the Zeb Project with data due sometime in July.
• The idea is to better understand the geology and geological structure of the Zeb Project area, the distribution of known nickel and related elements including copper, platinum, palladium and rhodium.
• Drilling shows higher-grade sulfide nickel zones such as 1.67% Ni-cu-PGEs over 2.25m.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) A$5.98, Mkt cap A$858m – Update on $1.64bn project financing

• Vulcan is seeking a 65:35% debt-equity split for its $1.64bn Phase One CAPEX for the Zero Carbon Lithium Project.
• The Company has approached several government-backed Export Credit Agencies via its debt financial advisor, BNP Paribas.
• Vulcan reports a subsidiary of the French national investment bank Bpifrance, has confirmed its project’s eligibility for the Bank’s Guarantee of Strategic Projects program.
• The project is also eligible for Italy’s Export Credit Program and a Canadian ECA has also shown interest in the project.
• Vulcan is aiming to complete the debt/equity financing process by Q1-24.

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474

 Sales

Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins ([email protected]).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expec