SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 4th December 2023 - Share Talk

SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 4th December 2023

Gold powers through $2,100/oz on outlook for Fed rate cuts

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Preliminary metallurgical results from Parys Mountain

Ecora Resources (ECOR LN) – Four Mile Legal Ruling in favour of Ecora Upheld

Golden Metal Resources (GMET LN) – Company describes the potential scale of its Garfield project in Nevada

Premium Nickel Resources (PNRL CN) – Debt financing increase and equity placing to fund Botswana nickel exploration

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Expansion of the N American aluminium business through US$700m joint venture with dominant producer of secondary metal

Tata Technologies (TATATECH INR) – IPO sees shares more than double as India strives to improve air quality in cities

Thor Energy (THR LN) – Downhole gamma logging show shallow uranium mineralisation at the Groundhog project in Colorado

Tirupati Graphite (TGR LN) – Agreement with convertible loan noteholders

Wishbone Gold* (WSBN LN) – Red Setter project shows gold mineralisation over 3km strike length with follow up drilling planned for 2024

Gold prices push higher following sharp Treasury rally on dovish Powell speech

  • Gold prices jumped to $2,140/oz this morning in the futures market.
  • Spot prices have been climbing to $2,070/oz, with the disparity suggesting likely forced short covering this morning.
  • The market reversed course last week and started pricing in further rate cuts on a series of dovish Fed comments.
  • Powell noted that policy was ‘well into restrictive territory,’ following Waller’s dovish take earlier, pushing yields lower and weighing on the dollar.
  • Swaps suggested a 50% chance of a rate cut in March and 100% chance by May.
  • Gold moves inversely to Treasury yields, which have fallen across the curve over the past two weeks.
  • The 10 Year yield slid to 4.2% having hit 4.98% in October.
  • ETF holdings have provided support to gold prices, following consistent outflows over the year.
  • Net long positions from hedge funds have been ramped up as speculators look to take advantage of the recent fervour.
  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East, with further Houthi attacks over the weekend, are adding to gold’s ‘war premium.’
  • We remain bullish gold and undervalued gold miners going into 2024 but suggest short term caution given the extended move higher, heavy bullish positioning and potential for a dollar rally.

Copper prices ease from highs after Panama supply concerns and lower TCRC fees

  • Copper prices pushed higher to $8,650/t on Friday’ risk off rally before paring gains to hold $8,500/t.
  • The move higher was a combination of a lower dollar on Powell’s comments and sustained supply concerns.
  • Cobre Panama has closed following persistent disruption – the mine produces 1.5% of global copper.
  • Additional treatment charge agreements with Chinese smelters, agreeing on 9% fee cuts, are also pointing to lower concentrate supply.

Lithium prices continue to slide as short positions against Pilbara Minerals hit A$2bn

  • Lithium carbonate prices have fallen to $14k/t in China, down 20% over the past month.
  • Spodumene prices are also lower, sliding to $1,440/t.
  • Bulge bracket banks have been lowering their price outlooks on rising supply from Australia and Zimbabwe alongside slowing EV demand.
  • Goldman Sachs expect a 202kt surplus next year and UBS are suggesting potential $800/t spodumene prices.
  • We are more constructive on prices at these levels given the marginal nature of Chinese lepidolite production in Jiangxi, an expected slowdown in DSO from Zimbabwe and an end to the battery makers’ destocking cycle.
  • The short seller attack on Pilbara Minerals, operator of Pilgangoora, continues.
  • Over 20% of the issued shares are currently sold short, with A$980m sold short over the past six weeks.
  • The company is the most shorted on the ASX, with the AFR suggesting that the South Korean short selling ban has pushed lithium bears to target liquid Australian plays.
  • Australia’s largest pension fund has been accumulating a long position in the stock recently, noting that ’lithium prices are currently deflated and now starting to breach the top end of the current cost curve.’

New materials discovered using AI programme GNoME

  • Google DeepMind has developed an AI tool called GNoME which it has used to calculate some 2.2m new crystal structures.
  • The programme has calculated the structures of some 380,000 stable materials which should produce some very interesting materials for engineers to work with.
  • The GNoME programme predicted some 2.2m technologically viable materials of which 380,000 are seen as relatively stable.
  • The Open Quantum Materials and WBM databases contain some 48,000 stable crystals. GNoME expands the number of stable materials known to humanity to 421,000.
  • The next stage will surely be to work out which crystal structures might improve on existing materials in high-value applications and what minerals will be used to create them.
Dow Jones Industrials +0.82% at 36,246
Nikkei 225 -0.60% at 33,231
HK Hang Seng -1.09% at 16,646
Shanghai Composite -0.29% at 3,023

Economics

US – Treasury bond yields dropped further on Friday on the back of what markets considered as dovish comments by Fed Chairman Powell.

  • Jerome Powell said that rates were “well into restrictive territory” suggesting that further rate hikes are unlikely.
  • Markets are now betting on when the next rate cut is expected with latest estimates for the first cut to come as early as May for a total of five 25bp cuts in 2024.
  • 10-year bond yields fell to the lowest since September and ~80bp since hitting 5.0% in October.
  • NFPs and labour earnings report due this week will be watched closely for signs of the state of the labour market.
  • NFPs are expected to come in at 180k, up on 150k in October with labour earnings at 0.3%mom, compared to 0.2%mom the previous month.

China – Evergrande liquidation will be delayed until next month in a surprise court decision providing the troubled developer more time to seek a restructuring plan, FT reports.

  • Passenger car sales rose +17% yoy to 1.39m vehicles. Sales rose, +4% yoy to 18.66m units by 26th November with some cities offering subsidies on EVs
  • Property sales fell 20% yoy in November in top 30 cities. Property sales fell 40% yoy in October.
  • Some cities are offering reduced deposits for second property purchases to lift the market

Germany – Weak trade was released this morning with a drop in within EU trade outweighing an increase in shipments to the US and China.

  • Exports (%mom) -0.2 v -2.5 September (revised from -2.4.) and 1.1 est.
  • Imports (%mom): -11.2 v -1.9 September (revised from -1.7) and 0.8 est.

Turkey – Inflation continued to run high in November as the central banks ratchet interest up to bring it down.

  • Inflation came in at 62% during the month, up on 61% in October.
  • The central bank raised rates by 5pp to 35% late last month for a fifth time since June.

Venezuela/Guyana – The referendum in Venezuela supported the nation’s claims on an oil-and-mineral rich region of the neighbouring Guyana.

  • Guyana described the referendum as a pretext for “annexation”.

Currencies

US$1.0869/eur vs 1.0894/eur previous. Yen 146.91/$ vs 148.06/$. SAr 18.707/$ vs 18.796/$. $1.267/gbp vs $1.265/gbp. 0.664/aud vs 0.662/aud. CNY 7.137/$ vs 7.144/$.

Dollar Index 103.38 vs 103.38 previous.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$2,068/oz vs US$2,043/oz previous

Gold ETFs 85.9moz vs 86.1moz previous

Platinum US$927/oz vs US$933/oz previous

Palladium US$984/oz vs US$1,013/oz previous

Silver US$25.18/oz vs US$25/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,400/oz vs US$4,450/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$ 8,498/t vs US$8,495/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,192/t vs US$2,195/t previous

Nickel US$ 16,495/t vs US$16,685/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,483/t vs US$2,458/t previous

Lead US$ 2,120/t vs US$2,114/t previous

Tin US$ 23,800/t vs US$23,595/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$77.9/bbl vs US$80.7/bbl previous

Natural Gas €42.060/MWh vs €43.275/MWh previous

Henry Hub Gas US$2.70/mmBtu vs US$2.77/mmBtu last Friday

  • Crude oil prices fell as the US Baker Hughes rig count was up 3 units to 625 rigs last week (-159 or 20% y/y), with oil rigs up 5 to 505 units (-122 y/y), gas rigs down 1 to 116 units (-39 y/y) and miscellaneous rigs down 1.
  • Trans Mountain announced its 890kb/d expansion project in Canada was 96% complete at end-3Q23, with less than 16km of pipeline to install and commercial service anticipated towards the end of 1Q24.
  • At COP28, 50 of the world’s largest oil & gas companies representing 40% of global oil production have signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonization pledge, promising to slash methane emissions from hydrocarbon production.
  • RWE (51%) signed an agreement with the Masdar (49%) to develop a 3G wind project in the UK North Sea, with construction of the Dogger Bank South starting in 2025 and full capacity reached by late 2031.

Uranium UXC US$81/lb vs US$80.25/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$130.5/t vs US$130.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$578.4/t vs US$576.2/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$113.8/t vs US$133.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$134.0/t vs US$133.3/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$322.0/t vs US$322.0/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,420/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$66,269/t vs US$67,554/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$14,080/t vs US$14,631/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,440/t vs US$1,460/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,043/t vs US$1,046/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$300/mtu vs US$300/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$620/t vs US$620/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.1/lb vs US$6.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 25.25/kg vs US$25.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$315/t vs US$314/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$75.7/t vs US$75.9/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$325.0/t vs US$325.0/t

EV & Battery news

Li-ion battery cell and pack prices continue to fall

  • Lithium-ion cell prices have fallen to $107/kWh on a volume weighted basis from $535/kWh in 2013 (BloombergNEF).
  • Total battery pack prices have fallen to $139/kWh on the same basis with the cost of the balance of the pack falling to $32/kWh this year from $245/kWh in 2013.
  • Cell prices rose to $128/kWh 2022 from $115/kWh in 2021 due to higher raw material prices.
  • We expect battery pack costs to continue to fall from today’s $32/kWh as innovation and rising production volumes reduce unit prices.
  • A $50/kWh Li-ion battery pack costs around $1,600 + $5,350 = $6,950 according to BloombergNEF.
  • Given the relative simplicity of electric motors vs combustion engines we would expect the cost of production of EVs to fall below that of ICE vehicles sometime soon.

European power grid problems slow EV charging growth

  • The European Commission has announced plans to overhaul the electricity infrastructure across Europe to meet new renewable energy demands.
  • The Commission expects EU power demand to rise 60% from this year until 2030.
  • It is estimated that $637bn will need to be spent on the necessary upgrades – this equates to a 64GW increase of cross-border transmission. (Reuters)
  • The 27-member bloc has 93GW of cross-border power connectors currently.
  • Deficiencies in the grid are slowing the rollout of EV charging networks across Europe – Spain has around 1600 charging stations, but 800 are yet to be connected to the grid.
  • Permits for establishing EV charging stations are slowing growth down – the process for setting up a fast EV station has risen to an average of two years from six months in the last few years.
  • Earlier this year, the EU adopted laws to install fast chargers by 2030 every 60km along designated road networks for passenger cars and every 100km for heavy-duty vehicles.

BYD stay above 300,000 for November, but growth has slowed

  • The automaker recorded 301,903 NEV sales in November, 31% yoy growth, but flat from October’s 301,833 units.
  • BYD has seen growth in overseas markets, up 148.65% yoy with 30,629 EV sales.
  • The company is also China’s second largest battery manufacturer and saw installation capacity of 16.945GWh in November.

Company News

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 1.53p, Mkt Cap £6.1m – Preliminary metallurgical results from Parys Mountain

  • Anglesey Mining reports that preliminary metallurgical tests on mineralisation from the White Rock and Engine Zones at its Parys Mountain project in north Wales has shown that either dense-media separation (DMS) or X-Ray Transmission (XRT) sorting as a preliminary pre-concentration step are effective.
  • The test sample (340kg), comprising a blend of material from the two zones “similar to the contribution that is expected to be delivered from the mine in the early years of production” showed that DMS generates a 35% rejection of the mass at the cost of a 5.2% loss in contained metal while XRT rejects 29% of the mass for a loss of 3.0% of the metal content.
  • Chief Executive, Jo Battershill, said that the results demonstrate that “the assumptions used in the 2021 PEA are potentially on the conservative side … [and that] … overall metal recoveries appear to be better than expected, particularly for both copper and gold”.
  • He explained that “Successful pre-concentration has many benefits ranging from increased feed grade into the processing plant, lower volumes of tailings for disposal and the potential to build smaller, lower cost processing infrastructure”.
  • Mr. Battershill said that Anglesey Mining will “investigate the relevant capital and operating costs for each option to determine which is the most optimal route to move forward with in the planned Pre-Feasibility Study”.

Conclusion: The latest metallurgical test results indicate pre-sorting of the ore may provide opportunities to reduce capital costs at Parys Mountain.  We look forward to the results being incorporated in the pre-feasibility study with interest.

Ecora Resources (ECOR LN) 91.7p, Mkt cap £231m – Four Mile Legal Ruling in favour of Ecora Upheld

  • The Court of Appeal of the Supreme Court of Western Australia has upheld the original, judgment by the Supreme Court of Western Australia in Ecora’s legal dispute with Quasar Resources which owns and operates the Four Mile uranium mine.
  • Ecora holds a 1% net smelter return / royalty over the mine
  • Ecora and Quasar have been engaged in a legal dispute since 2016 over the level of allocable charges being applied to calculate NSR revenue subject to the Group’s royalty entitlement.
  • The Supreme Court of Western Australia ruled that no costs incurred at the mine or at the Beverley plant, should be applied as permitted allocable charges.
  • Following the initial ruling, the Group received a settlement payment of approximately A$6m.
  • Ecora expects to release ~A$9.3m including interest to the income statement in Q4.
  • Ecora has also been awarded its legal costs of both the trial and of the appeal.

Golden Metal Resources (GMET LN) 7.88p, Mkt Cap £6.6m – Company describes the potential scale of its Garfield project in Nevada

  1. Golden Metal Resources has indicated that its Garfield project in the Walker Lane mineral belt of Nevada hosts both porphyry and skarn type copper/silver/gold mineralisation contains a high grade copper zone extending over an area of 1,500m x 500m where rock samples exceed 1% copper.
  2. The company says that, based on 32 rock sample “across the entire Project: >1% copper results returned over an area of approximately 3000 x 1500m (open in multiple directions)”.
  3. CEO, Oliver Friesen, said that “our 100% owned Garfield Project has the potential to host a material copper deposit”.
  4. He described that although “Previous exploration work demonstrated an extensive copper footprint at Garfield … the latest findings have far exceeded the Company’s expectations … [and said that finding] … extensive high-grade copper mineralisation across this footprint size points to the exceptional opportunity Garfield represents to Golden Metal Resources”.

Conclusion: Early stage exploration at Garfield is yielding promising results.  We look forward to follow-up exploration to provide confirmation that they can translate to resource potential.

Premium Nickel Resources (PNRL CN) C$1.42, Mkt Cap C$173m – Debt financing increase and equity placing to fund Botswana nickel exploration

  • Premium Nickel have announced the issue of shares and an amended debt financing for its Selebi nickel project in Botswana.
  • The Company is offering 11.765m shares at $1.2/share to raise $14.1m.
  • They are also increasing the principal amount of an outstanding loan from $15m to $20.9m, for additional gross proceeds of $5m.
  • EdgePoint will support its existing stake in the equity placing.
  • The Term Loan additional amount will bear an interest rate of 10% pa and will mature in June 2026.
  • An additional 700k warrants will be issued to the lender, at an exercise price of $1.4375.

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 5,439p, Mkt cap £70bn – Expansion of the N American aluminium business through US$700m joint venture with dominant producer of secondary metal

  • Last week, Rio Tinto announced the completion of a US$700m transaction with North America’s largest secondary aluminium producer, the Toronto-based Giampaolo Group, giving it a 50% interest in the Matalco business which combines “the strengths of North America’s largest primary and secondary aluminium producers to meet the growing demand from manufacturers for low carbon materials”.
  • “The investment will expand Rio Tinto’s aluminium business in the US, where demand for recycled aluminium is forecast to increase by more than 70% from 2022 to 2032, driven by the transportation, construction, and packaging sectors”.
  • The announcement confirms that “Matalco will remain the operator of the joint venture’s six facilities in the United States and its Canadian site, which together have a capacity to produce approximately 900,000 tonnes of recycled aluminium per annum” and that “Over the last five years, Matalco more than doubled its production capacity”.
  • Rio Tinto says that the transaction continues its “investment in building its supply of low carbon aluminium in North America. Previous investments include $1.1 billion to expand the use of its AP60 technology at its Arvida aluminium smelter in June 2023 and $29 million to establish new recycling capabilities at the Arvida smelter in August 2022, both in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec.
  • Explaining that the Matalco joint-venture gives “Rio Tinto a leading position in the rapidly growing North American recycled aluminium market … [Chief Executive, Jakob Strausholm, said that] … We look forward to working in partnership with Giampaolo Group to support the drive to net zero by expanding recycled production and providing closed-loop recycling solutions to help our customers reduce their carbon footprint”.
  • Chris Galifi, CEO of the Giampaolo Group, said that collaboration with Rio Tinto “showcases our dedication to continuously evolving our production of high-quality, low-carbon aluminium”.

Conclusion: Rio Tinto is expanding its North American aluminium business through a joint venture with the largest regional producer of recycled aluminium.

Tata Technologies (TATATECH INR) INR1,198. Mkt cap INR486bn (US$5.8bn) – IPO sees shares more than double as India strives to improve air quality in cities

  • Tata Technologies shares performed well last week following their IPO in India.
  • The technology arm of Tata Motors provides engineering and technology services to auto, aero and heavy machinery manufacturers.
  • The IPO was offered at INR 500 with the shares more than doubling on the first day of trading to a high of INR1,400
  • There has been a record 201 IPOs in India this year as the market gains from improved economic activity.
  • India is moving fast to electrify its transport system driven by excessive pollution.
  • In Calcutta, the air quality index it 330-420 last week causing some to remain indoors.
  • The city estimates some 16,000 deaths this year from air pollution along with a cost of $2.3bn.

Thor Energy (THR LN) 1.6p, Mkt Cap £4.3m – Downhole gamma logging show shallow uranium mineralisation at the Groundhog project in Colorado

  • Thor Energy reports that it has completed a 23-hole programme of reverse-circulation (RC) drilling totalling 2,737m within its wholly owned Wedding Belland Radium Mountain prospects in the historic uranium/vanadium mining Uravan District of SW Colorado.
  • Results of downhole gamma logging of 7 holes located along strike from the old Groundhog mine showed uranium mineralisation including;
    • An intersection of “0.5m @ 3186ppm (0.32 %) eU3O8 from 76.2m” in hole 23WBRA-011; and of
    • “0.8m @ 1954ppm (0.20%) eU3O8 from 67.4m” in hole 23WBRA-016; and
    • 0.3m @ 3362ppm (0.34 %) eU3O8 from 90.22m” in hole 23WBRA-019; and
    • An intersection of “6885ppm (0.69 %) eU3O8 from 82.66m” in hole 23WBRA-020
  • Confirmation assays to support the gamma logging (eU3O8) results and the vanadium content are underway. We do not know the average widths of mineralisation previously mined, however at widths down to 0.3m, dilution may feature in future mineral resource estimation.
  • The results follow a previous announcement, last month, of
    • A 0.6m interval averaging 0.17% U3O8 from 63.1m depth in hole 23WBRA-012; and
    • A 0.3m interval averaging 0.11% U3O8 from 61.3m depth in hole 23WBRA-013; and
    • A 0.8m interval averaging 0.20% U3O8 from 67.4m depth in hole 23WBRA-016.
  • The drilling programme targets “the Salt Wash Sandstone Member (sandstone/mudstone) of the Morrison Formation … [which is described as] … the primary lithology for historic uranium and vanadium production in the Uravan Mineral Belt”.
  • As well as the drilling at Groundhog, an additional 7 holes were drilled at the Rim Rock mine area with the remaining 9 holes of the programme at an “underexplored area with no historic workings” known as Section 23 located southeast of Groundhog.
  • Managing Director, Nicole Galloway-Warland, said that the results “confirm our expectations that we would achieve shallow high-grade uranium from the drilling program … [and that they highlight] … the significant potential and exciting growth opportunities of our Wedding Bell and Radium Mountain uranium projects”.
  • The company plans further infill and extension drilling aimed at delivering a resource estimate in 2024.

Conclusion: Initial drilling and gamma-logging results from the campaign in SW Colorado confirm the presence of uranium mineralisation in a previously mined geological horizon in an area of historic mining.  Confirmatory assays to back up the logging are underway and we await further news of the company’s plan to deliver a mineral resource estimate next year.

Tirupati Graphite (TGR LN) 14.6p Mkt Cap £17m – Agreement with convertible loan noteholders

  • Tirupati will issue an additional 1,285,952 shares to holders of their outstanding convertible loan notes.
  • The Company issued 3m @ £1 convertible loan notes in May 2019 and an additional 3m notes @ £1 in August 2022.
  • The notes carry interest of 12% pa and there were £2.8m worth outstanding as of closing balance 31st March 2023.
  • The new agreement will see the issue of shares valued ‘as close as possible to the amount owed to noteholders based on an issue price of 17.1p.’
  • The outstanding loan notes will also increase the interest payment for July to an annualised rate of 16% for the H1 period.
  • Management thanks the ‘flexibility and patience’ of the noteholders.
  • The Company is ramping up production in Madagascar of flake graphite, however operations have been disrupted by lower-than-expected head grades and depressed flake graphite prices.

Wishbone Gold* (WSBN LN) – 1.83p, Mkt Cap £4.5m – Red Setter project shows gold mineralisation over 3km strike length with follow up drilling planned for 2024

See link for recent note: CLICK FOR PDF

  • Wishbone Gold reports that its exploration and modelling of the Red Setter project in the Paterson Range of WA has shown “a significant gold system with a mineralised strike over 3km.
  • The company repeats its previous, October, announcement that an initial six reverse-circulation (RC) drill holes have been completed and explains that the RC rig has been demobilised with a second stage of diamond drilling involving drilling ‘tails’ “to target depths of 400m-500m with a diamond drill expected to be undertaken next year.
  • The company highlights results from the preliminary phase of the drilling including:
    • An intersection of 18m at an average grade of 0.49g/t gold from a depth of 308m in hole WRSDD-0015, including a higher grade section of 5m averaging 1.2g/t gold from 319m depth; and
    • 14m at an average grade of 1.00g/t gold from a depth of 266m in hole WRSDD-0008, including 7m at an average grade of 2g/t and 0.38% copper from 273m depth with the first metre from 273m averaging 6.4g/t gold and 0.69% copper; and
    • 25m at an average grade of 0.28g/t gold and 0.11% copper from a depth of 195m in hole WRSDD-0006; and
    • 10m at an average grade of 0.48g/t gold from a depth of 117m in hole WRSDD-0011
  • Drilling also encountered narrower intersections in other holes though the true-widths of the mineralisation has not yet been reported, possibly reflecting the relatively early stage of the exploration and number of drill-hole intersections available so far.
  • The company says that its “drilling to date … [has] … shown minor silicification and veining with trace sulphides … [and] …. Minor elevated Cu … which may be related to the hydrothermal system intersected last year to the immediate north of this drilling.
  • As well as the diamond drilling phase next year, Wishbone Gold says that “When these holes have reached their target depths they will be testing new geophysics targets from airborne MMT, ground ANT and IP surveys completed earlier this year”.
  • Referring to possible geological similarities between Red Setter and the Telfer mine located only 10km to the north-east of Red Setter”, Chairman, Richard Poulden, said that “We look forward to continuing this drill programme once the diamond drill rigs mobilise to site next year”.

Conclusion: Initial promising results from the RC drilling will be tested at depth next year by deepening the holes with diamond drilling.  We await that phase with interest for further insight into the geological context which the company says is analogous to the nearby Telfer gold mine.

*SP Angel acts as a Broker for Wishbone Gold

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

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35-39 Maddox Street London

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices  
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt LME
Oil Brent ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore NYMEX
Thermal Coal Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal SSY
RRE Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite Asian Metal

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Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%


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