SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 19th May 2025

Copper holds steady as Chinese trader builds $1bn bullish position

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY, 296p – Gilar first production declared

Atlantic Tin (Unlisted) – Bidder and director statements issued urging shareholders to accept A$98m offer from  Xingye Gold

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) – Lead engineering appointed to progress the MCB project, Philippines

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) – A$4.6m raised

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Media speculation

Marimaca Copper (MARI CN) – Drilling results from Pampa Medina, Chile

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) – 2024 results confirm intention for initial gold production from the La India project in Nicaragua in Q4 2026.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – High-grade gold intercepted at Mbe

Xanadu Mines (XAM AU) – A$160m cash offer from consortium

Copper ($9,488/t) holds steady as Chinese trader builds $1bn bullish position

• Bian Ximing, who made a fortune in pPVC pipes and then reportedly made $1.5bn profit on gold has moved to accumulate >$1bn in copper.
• Bian who owns Zhongcai Futures Co., holds the largest net long position in copper in the SHFE with ~90,000t in copper futures.
• Bian reversed his short position in November and appears to be betting on new demand from Chinese government stimulus and the ongoing expansion in grid capacity.
• US copper premiums have been drawing copper away from the LME and SHFE awaiting news of the US Section 232 investigation and Trump tariffs.
• Traders were looking for a potential 25% tariff to follow tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.
• US copper premiums have fallen in recent weeks from $1,500 to around $600/t as Trump rolled back on his tariff demands.
• SHFE inventory has fallen to 116,753t on Friday from 268,337t at the Chinese new year as metal was diverted into the US to beat expected new tariffs.
• LME and SHFE officials will be wary of the potential impact of the news of Bian’s long position if the market starts to move against him.
• Remember the Nickel crisis when the LME halted the run on nickel after Mr ‘Big Shot’, Xiang Guangda of Tsingshan suffered a theoretical $11bn loss on nickel short positions.
• The LME cancelled nickel market trades worth around US$4bn at the time, sparking a series of law suits against the LME.

Gold ($3,244/oz) rises as Moody’s downgrades US Government credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa in the expectation of a larger US budget deficit

• Gold prices have bounced off recent weakness, rising from $3,144/oz.
• US Treasuries continue to sell off, with 10 year yields rising over 4.5%, supported by Moody’s downgrading of US credit.
• This has supported gold as an alternative haven asset, with investors shunning US debt over concerns of fiscal headroom with rising deficits.
• Gold has struggled amid profit taking following its sharp rise to $3,500/oz in April amid Trump’s tariff roll-out and subsequent roll-back.

Economics

US – Yields are on the rise after Moody’s cut US sovereign credit rating on rising budget deficits and state debt on Friday.

• The rating was cut to Aa1 from Aaa making Moody’s the last of the three major credit agencies to downgrade it.
• The outlook was changed from “negative” to “stable”.
• “Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs,” Moody’s said on Friday.
• S&P and Nasdaq futures are trading more than 1% lower this morning.
• The US dollar index fell -0.75% today to 100.37 with US futures falling and longer-dated treasury yields rising close to 5%.

Treasury Secretary Bessent argued that the maximum tariffs will be reimposed following a 90 day pause if countries do not negotiate “in good faith”.

• Comments would suggest the current administration would want the pace of new trading deals to pick up.

China –Industrial production climbed stronger than expected in April while consumption disappointed suggesting authorities might need to do more to support waning demand.

• Protracted property crisis, deflationary pressure and worries over unemployment weigh on consumer confidence, Bloomberg writes.
• Property sales and real estate investment dropped at a stronger pace during the month.
• Ne home prices declines also picked up.
• Industrial Production (%yoy, Apr/Mar/Est): 6.1/7.7/5.7
• Retail Sales  (%yoy, Apr/Mar/Est): 5.1/5.9/5.8
• FAI (%yoy YTD, Apr/Mar/Est): 4.0/4.2/4.2
• Property Sales (%yoy YTD, Apr/Mar/Est): -1.9/-0.4/NA
• Property Investment (%yoy YTD, Apr/Mar/Est): -10.3/-9.9/-10.0
• New Home Prices (%mom, Apr/Mar/Est): -0.12/-0.08/NA

Currencies

US$1.124/eur vs 1.121/eur previous. Yen 144.89/$ vs 145.80/$ previous. SAr 17.982/$ vs 18.080/$ previous. US$1.334/gbp vs $1.328/gbp previous.

US$0.643/aud vs 0.642/aud previous. CNY 7.213/$ vs 7.210/$ previous. Dollar Index 100.37 vs 101.04 previous. 

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,230/oz vs US$3,204/oz previous.

Gold ETFs 88.7moz vs 88.4moz previous.

Platinum US$988/oz vs US$994/oz previous.

Palladium US$973/oz vs US$962/oz previous.

Silver US$32.6/oz vs US$32.3/oz previous.

Rhodium US$5,425/oz vs US$5,500/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,505/t vs US$9,492/t previous.

Aluminium US$2,462/t vs US$2,465/t previous.

Nickel US$15,544/t vs US$15,605/t previous.

Zinc US$2,691/t vs US$2,684/t previous.

Lead US$1,996/t vs US$1,991/t previous.

Tin US$32,726/t vs US$32,790/t previous.

Energy:           

Oil US$65.1/bbl vs US$64.3/bbl previous.

• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 2 to 576 units last week (-28 or 5% y/y), with oil rigs down 1 to 473 units (-24 y/y) and gas rigs down 1 to 100 units (-3 y/y), as the Permian Basin lost 3 rigs to 282 units (-30 y/y).
• The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources expects the state’s rig count to decline by 4 to 27 units and the number of frac crews to fall by 2 to 12 units by August as operators respond to weaker oil prices.

Natural Gas €35.1/MWh vs €34.9/MWh previous.

Uranium Futures $71.6/lb vs $71.6/lb previous.

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.8/t vs US$101.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.5/t vs US$469.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$189.5/t vs US$190.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$102.5/t vs US$101.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,216/t vs US$60,207/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,768/t vs US$8,809/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$685/t vs US$685/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,112/t vs US$1,113/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$398/mtu vs US$388/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.4/kg vs US$24.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$287/t vs US$287/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Battery News

IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 shows positive signs despite uncertainties

• According to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the sale of EVs is on track to surpass 20m vehicles in 2025.
• These sales figures would see EVs account for over 25% of cars sold worldwide.
• Sales exceeded 17m in 2024, accounting for just over 20% of global car sales.
• In the first three months of 2025, EV sales were up 35% yoy, with many markets recording a record Q1.
• EVs are expected to exceed 40% of the global auto market by 2030.
• Uncertainties over global economic growth and the evolution of trade and industrial policies could affect the outlook.
• However, EV sales are continuing to grow thanks to their increasing affordability, according to the report.

Company News

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 129p, Mkt Cap £147m – Gilar first production declared

BUY – 296p

• The Company commenced production at Gilar Au/Cu Underground Mine, Azerbaijan.
• Mining is carried at the higher grade zone 4 with copper/gold grades reported consisted with the mining plan.
• The target is to run the mine at 50-60ktpm once operations fully ramp up.
• Zone 4 hosts 2.6mt at 1.78g/t gold and 1.47% copper within the larger Gilar mineral resource of 6.1mt at 1.30g/t gold and 0.88% copper.
• Gilar ore to be first processed with agitation leaching to extract gold followed by flotation to produce copper concentrate.
• Gedabek processing facilities are located only 7km away from the mine with ROM material trucked to the plant.

Conclusion: Launching production at Gilar marks another asset developed from a greenfield discovery to an operating mine and delivered by the team with higher grade ore sourced from the underground operation to be major contributor to production profile accounting for >50% of copper/gold production at Gedabek in FY25.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Anglo Asian Mining

Atlantic Tin (Unlisted) – Bidder and director statements issued urging shareholders to accept A$98m offer from  Xingye Gold

• Statements have been issued this morning by the directors of Atlantic Tin and from the Bidder Xingye Gold, a subsidiary of Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver and Tin Mining.
• Atlantic Tin, formerly Kasbah Resources, recently acquired the former El Hammam tin mine from Managem. This next to Atlantic’s Achmmach tin project.
• Processing capacity at El Hammam which includes a two-stage crushing plant, milling, flotation, thickening and filtering in place as well as power, water and communications may be used to process ore mined underground at Achmmach into a tin concentrate.
• Production was expected to start in 2026 building up to a sustained mining and processing rate of 900,000 tpa of ore.
• It will be interesting to see how Xingye Gold proceeds with the project.
• China has been struggling to source tin and tungsten ores and concentrates from Myanmar due to the ongoing conflict and more recently after the massive earthquake
• A further 5.4 magnitude earthquake hit Myanmar yesterday as aftershocks continue.

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) 0.33p, Mkt Cap £10.2m – Lead engineering appointed to progress the MCB project, Philippines

• Celsius Resources reports that it has appointed Ausenco for the FEED (Front End Engineering Design) of its Maalinao-Caigutan-Biyog (MCB)Copper-Gold Project located on Luzon approximately 320km north of Manila.
• The company confirmed that the “combined FEED and Feasibility Study update is expected to be completed within a six-month period” and that the award of the US$1.9m contract “was made possible through the signing of the Bridge Loan Agreement with Maharlika Investment Corporation …, which provides up to USD 10 million in funding” to the project.
• The project hosts a December 2022 “JORC compliant Mineral Resource Estimate … [of] … 338 million tonnes @ 0.47% copper and 0.12 g/t gold” with a planned mine life of 25 years treating 2.25mtpa of ore. to produce an average of around 16,000tpa of copper and 19,000oz pa of gold.
• A 2021 study on the project described an initial investment of US$253m delivering a post-tax NPV_8% of US$464m and an IRR of 31%. The study was based on assumed copper price of US$4:00/lb (~US$8,800/t – currently ~US$9,490/t) and a gold price of US$1,695/oz (currently ~US$3,200/oz).

Conclusion: Recent funding for the MCB project has facilitated the appointment of engineering company, Ausenco, to progress design and feasibility studies for the project. We look forward to the conclusion of this phase, expected within six months, for insight into the technical and financial characteristics of the project in the current higher commodity price environment.

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) 37p, Mkt cap £102m – A$4.6m raised

• GreenX Metals report the raising of A$4.6m (7.1m) shares at A$0.65, 31.5p/s from new and existing investors.
• Management also report the starting of an airborne geophysical survey over historic copper mines and prospects in the Tanneberg region.
• GreenX, with its Tannenberg project in Germany, was selected by BHP as an area of focus for the 2025 BHP Xplor program along with seven other companies..
• The survey which is funded by the BHP Xplor program will run ~600 line-km of high-resolution helicopter-borne magnetic and radiometric measurements.
• The idea is to identify deposit-scale faults as well as the extent of historical underground workings.
• The geophysical survey has been designed in collaboration with the BHP Xplor team and local German service providers
• Management hope to identify faulting which is thought to act as significant control on mineralization.
• The survey should also help to show the historic underground workings into the Kupferschiefer style sediment hosted copper deposits.
• Kupferschiefer mineralization is found in sediments associated with black shale formations in Central Europe and appears relatively shallow and potentially high-grade at Tannenberg.
• Copper is sediment-hosted and occurs along with silver and other metals, and whilst traditionally   associated with organic-rich shales, at Poland’s prolific KGHM mines  95% of the copper reserves are hosted  in the limestone and footwall sediments above and below the shale – and it is these stratigraphic units that form the new exploration target at Tannenberg
• Cash, the company should now have around A$7m of available cash

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.35p, Mkt Cap £71m – Media speculation

(Hainan Mining holds a 51% stake in KMUK which holds the Bougouni Lithium Project in Mali with Kodal holding 49%. Mali will hold 35% of the jv company with KMUK)

(Kodal Minerals Plc now, effectively, hold 49% of 65% of the Bougouni project with Mali holding 35% through LMLB and 65% of LMLB held by the Kodal jv with Hainan Mining within KMUK)

• Kodal Minerals reports on media speculation relating to the delay in the receipt of the export permit for spodumene from the government of Mali.
  • “Discussions with the Government of Mali on finalising the export permit for spodumene concentrate produced at Bougouni are continuing as planned and it is expected the permit will be received in the near future.”
• Kodal has processed a stockpile of >27,000t of spodumene concentrate ready for export. We believe this grades around 5.5%
• All other operations continue as normal as the mine ramps up to full production through the Phase 1 DMS process plant.
• Kodal management engaged early with the Government of Mali in relation to the new Mali 2023 Mining Code reaching an amicable settlement earlier this year.
• All payments have been made under the new code with government officials now finalising their respective duties in relation to all other aspects of the project.
• The licence has now been transferred to the Mali mining company, LMLB ‘Les Mines de Lithium de Bougouni’.
• The Government can appoint 4 directors,  one from the Ministry of Finance, one from the Ministry of Mines and two independents with LMLB having up to 12 directors.
• KMUK, the Kodal, Hainan jv currently has four directors but can add further if required.

Conclusion:  We believe the government of Mali is supportive of the development of Bougouni and will issue an export permit shortly.

*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.

Marimaca Copper (MARI CN) C$4.69, Mkt cap C$474m – Drilling results from Pampa Medina, Chile

• Last week, Marimaca Copper reported recent drilling at its Pampa Medina project, which lies 26km from the flagship Marimaca oxide project in Chile.
• Within an overall intersection of 242m at an average grade of 0.65% CuT (total copper) from a down-hole depth of 252m in hole DMD-01 the announcement highlights
  • An intersection of 68m at an average grade of 1.20% CuT from 298m depth, including 20m at a grade of 2.25% from 298m depth and 32m averaging 1.03% from 332m; and
  • A deeper intersection of 74m averaging 0.84% CuT from 420m, including 40m at a grade of 1.07% from 420m depth.
• Marimaca Copper says that the results are from oxide material and that assay results from deeper sulphide mineralisation are still awaited
• The latest drilling in hole SMD-01 probed to “950m to investigate the potential for repeating manto-mineralized units at depth in primary mineralization … [and] … confirms the material extension of the sediment-hosted ‘manto-style’ mineralization”.
• Samples from a second hole, SMD-02, which “presented a surprise intersection of polymetallic mineralization, which we had not previously considered” are currently being prepared for analysis.
• Marimaca’s VP Exploration, Sergio Rivera, said that the “scale and intensity of mineralization at Pampa Medina Norte continues to impress us. We now think the system has good potential for stacked mantos which, based on our review of historical drilling data, could be extensive across the broader Sierra De Medina project area”.
• The wider Pampa Medina project is described as “a manto-style copper deposit dominantly hosted in Jurassic-Triassic sedimentary units … underlaying … a Upper Paleozoic complex of metasediments and intrusions. Copper is found predominantly in oxide species dominated by atacamite, chrysocolla and both secondary and primary chalcocite”.
• Hole SMD-01 is located “approximately 400m north of the northern margin of the known deposit at Pampa Medina … [where] … Historical drilling… was generally limited to a depth of 400m, potentially too shallow to intersect the chalcopyrite-bornite dominant manto mineralization found in SMR-01, confirmed and potentially extended at depth by SMD-01”
• Hole SMR-01, which was announced in January, was drilled north of the defined Pampa Medina deposit, yielding highlights of:
  • 400m at 0.49% Cu from 250m in oxides, including
    • 102m at 1.2% Cu from 250 and 18m at 5.1% Cu from 320m.
• Mr. Rivera said that Marimaca Copper believes “that we are still in the very early days of the Pampa Medina story and the consolidation of the area has allowed, for the first time, the development of our overall thesis that Pampa Medina and its surroundings represents a single, large scale mineralized system which could be highly complementary to the MOD” (Marimaca Oxide Deposit).

Conclusion: Early-stage drilling results from Pampa Medina suggest that mineralisation may be more extensive both laterally and at depth than previously thought.

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) 7.9p, Mkt Cap £203m – 2024 results confirm intention for initial gold production from the La India project in Nicaragua in Q4 2026.

• Metals Exploration reports 2024 after-tax profit of US$25.6m (2023 – US$119.2m) generated from the production of 83,897oz of gold from the Runruno mine in the Philippines at an all-in-sustaining cost AISC) of US$1,135/oz (2023- 85,194oz at a cost of US$1,126/oz).
• Mine production resulted from the processing of 2.15mt of ore (2023 – ) at an average grade of 1.34g/t gold (2023 – 1.42g/t) at an average recovery rate of 90.5% (2023 -88.7%).
• The company explains that “FY2024 the cash generated from operations was US$96.7 million (FY2023: US$72.3 million). This enabled the Group to complete the repayment of the Group’s external debt in June 2024” and reports a closing cash balance of US$31.2m offset by current debt of US$6.9m.
• Production guidance for 2025 is in the range 70-75,000oz with AISC costs expected between US$1,225—1,325/oz.
• Today’s announcement highlights the acquisition of Condor Gold, completed in January 2025 and confirms Metals Exploration’s intention to bring Condor Gold’s 2.2m oz La India project in Nicaragua into “production in Q4 2026”.
• The company describes moves towards accomplishing this objective including:
  • The recruitment of a Spanish speaking operating team and the development of dialogue with Government and host communities, local artisanal miners in Nicaragua; and
  • The review of mineral resource and reserve estimates including the design of “a gold resource extension and verification drill programme and issuing tenders to undertake the proposed drill programme, which commenced in Q2 2025”; and
  • The acquisition of “second hand gold ore processing and concentrating plant” which is currently “being shipped to site from North America and is scheduled to land in Nicaragua in Q3 2025”; and
  • Work to finalise the process flow sheet; the appointment of project engineers and “Issuing in-country contracts for the La India earthworks, concrete and fuel supply”.
• Describing an annual production target of 145,000oz pa of gold from La India by FY 2027, Non-Executive Chairman, Steven Smith explained that “La India will provide cashflow at an opportune time, replacing that from Runruno as the Company approaches the end of mining operations there. We will be utilising existing and future cash generated from Runruno to fund the construction of the La India project, thereby reducing dilution for shareholders”.
• Chief Executive, Darren Bowden, also described progress with the company’s exploration projects in the Philippines at Abra, around 200km north of Runruno on Luzon, where mapping, geochemical and geophysical surveys “have outlined two key highly prospective copper-gold porphyry targets, Manikbel and Donenglay”.
• The Dupax exploration project, located within 20km of Runruno by road, “has the potential to extend ore processing operations at Runruno after ore feed from the Runruno … tenement is exhausted. The potential ore feed from Dupax could utilise the existing Runruno process plant infrastructure and be re-purposed to accommodate a different type of ore feed”.

Conclusion: Since acquiring Condor Gold and its’ advanced La India project in Nicaragua, Metals Exploration has moved rapidly with initial production now expected in late 2026 and production of 145,000oz of gold targeted in 2027.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.25p, Mkt Cap £9.7m – High-grade gold intercepted at Mbe

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• Oriole has announced additional drilling results following last week’s intercept of 87m at 1.36g/t Au from Mbe, Cameroon.
• Today the Company announces assay results from hole MBDD009 with highlights including:
  • 11m at 0.5g/t Au from 67m
  • 1m at 2.99g/t Au from 119m
  • 1m at 1.06g/t Au from 124m
  • 2.00m at 25.77g/t Au from 147.10m
• The hole was drilled 160m to the west of MBDD008 (87m at 1.36g/t Au).
• The drilling has now extended the width of the mineralised corridor on this particular fence line to over 400m.
• Oriole’s Mbe Phase 1 drilling programme has now delivered 137 mineralised intersections over 0.2g/t Au cut off.
• The drilling programme is currently 60% complete with 13 holes drilled to date and hole 14 currently in progress.
• Oriole intends to publish a JORC Exploration Target in 3Q25, followed by a maiden, pit-contained MRE in 4Q25.

Conclusion: Today’s results boost Oriole’s exploration team’s thesis that Mbe hosts wide zones of lower-grade, bulk-style gold mineralisation with high-grade zones throughout. The 1m at 51g/t Au intercept announced today is the highest gold grade to date and further boosts the Company’s expectation of delivering a maiden MRE in 4Q25.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Xanadu Mines (XAM AU) A$0.08, Mkt Cap A$154m – A$160m cash offer from consortium

• Xanadu Mines, which holds 50% in the large Kharmagtai copper-gold project in Mongolia, has announced a cash offer at A$0.08/share.
• The offer comes from Bastion Mining, which is a consortium of Boroo and Xanadu Director Ganbayar Lkhagvasuren.
• Baroo is a private mining investment group which currently operates the Lagunas Nore gold mine in Peru and holds various assets in South America.
• The offer price of A$0.08 represents a 57% premium to Xanadu’s Friday closing price, valuing the Xanadu equity at A$160m.
• Bastion will also enter into a subscription agreement for 286,829,633 Xanadu shares at A$0.06/share for JV funding and working capital.
• Kharmagtai holds 2.2bnt MRE at 0.2% Cu and 0.15g/t Au.
• A recent PFS, delivered in September, showed a 29yr LOM with average annual copper production of 75kt and 165kozpa gold production.
• The PFS outlines an open pit, low strip operation using sulphide flotation and CIL.
• Post-tax NPV8 of US$930m, IRR of 21%, pre-production CAPEX of $890m, using copper price of $4.1/lb, gold price at $2,100/oz.
• The PFS delivery triggered the transition of JV operatorship to Zijin.
• Xanadu had required a ‘viable funding solution’ before approving the budget for the next phase.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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