Malcy’s Blog – Oil price, Savannah Energy, Petrofac, President Energy, Getech & Coro Energy

WTI (August) $109.57 +$1.95, Brent (August) $115.09  +$1.97, Diff -$5.52 +2c

Author @mgrahamwood

USNG (July) $6.50 +28c, UKNG (July) 168.0p -2.0p, TTF €125.50 -€8.83

Oil price

A bizarre playground type incident happened at the G7 meeting, sleeves rolled up M Macron slid up behind Sleepy Joe and conspiratorially whispered in his shell like. As for what he said, thanks to live microphones and sharp footage it went like this…

‘I spoke to MBZ (leader of UAE) apparently the UAE are producing their maximum and the Saudis are close to maximum production and can only produce another 150,000 b/d until after 6 months’.

What to read into this? With Sleepy Joe scheduled to visit MBS (leader of the KSA) next month maybe Macron wanted to lever on behalf of Iran and maybe Venezuela to get more oil into the market.

He should know that the Saudis in particular export much less in the summer due to domestic power surges as the population get air conditioning and will up their exports come September or maybe it was just one big spoof.

Elsewhere the price rose as Libya and Ecuador production fell away and with still no EIA stats on gasoline prices or inventories due to computer crashes we will wait for market data.

Savannah Energy

Savannah Energy PLC, the British independent energy company focused around the delivery of Projects that Matter in Africais pleased to announce that Accugas Limited, the Company’s 80% indirectly owned subsidiary, has commenced gas sales to TransAfam Power Limited (“TAPL”) in relation to the provision of gas for use at its power plants in Rivers State, Nigeria.

As previously announced on 6 June 2022, Savannah signed an interruptible gas sales agreement  with TAPL to supply up to 35 MMscfpd daily for an initial three-month period, with the option to extend for a mutually agreed period. The plant is connected to the Accugas network via the Nigerian Gas Company pipeline from Ikot Abasi.

Andrew Knott, CEO, Savannah Energy, said:

“I am delighted to report we have already begun first gas sales to TAPL, having signed an agreement at the beginning of this month. This will be the third customer we have commenced new gas supply to in the past month. We have now signed and operationalised GSAs with power plants comprising around 24% of the country’s thermal generation capacity (up from 14% at the same time last year) demonstrating our dedication to the Nigerian industry and being the energy partner of choice.”

Vincent Ozoude, MD/CEO, TransAfam Power Limited, commented:  

“We are pleased that the gas supply from Accugas Limited to our plant has commenced. This, as earlier mentioned, will support in boosting our plant capacity recovery programme and improving power generation to the country.”

Speaking on the development, the President, Transcorp Group, Mrs Owen Omogiafo, said:

“The commencement of the gas supply by Accugas Limited to our subsidiary TransAfam is in line with our strategic intent of increasing power generation in Nigeria, noting the role of energy in the nation’s development. We remain committed to optimising our installed capacities across our various plants, as leaders in the sector.”

This is more good news from Savannah as the agreement signed only earlier this month has already led to gas sales to TAPL. Indeed as CEO knott says, SAVE has ‘operationalised GSAs with power plants comprising around 24% of the country’s thermal generation capacity (up from 14% at the same time last year)’

Petrofac

Petrofac has issued the following pre-close trading update for the six months ending 30 June 2022.

 

  • Trading and expectations in line with guidance provided in the AGM statement
  • Given the improved macro environment, E&C is expected to secure strong order intake in the second half and deliver backlog growth year on year
  • Continued robust performance and order intake in Asset Solutions; on track to deliver full year EBIT margin of 5-6%, in line with guidance
  • Strong IES performance driven by higher production and stronger oil price
  • Well positioned with a healthy Group pipeline scheduled for award in the next 18 months
  • Net debt of US$345 million(4) and liquidity of US$507 million(5) at 23 June 2022, with net debt expected to reduce in the second half

Sami Iskander, Petrofac’s Group Chief Executive, commented:

“We have made good progress in the first half of the year to position the business strategically to capitalise on the expected multi-year upcycle ahead, supported by a strong energy price environment and ambitious growth plans from clients in our core markets.  Bidding activity in E&C is high and Asset Solutions has secured a strong order intake in the year to date.  IES has delivered a significant increase in production and is benefitting from high oil prices.  As previously reported, first half financial performance has been adversely impacted by delays and cost-overruns in our small and mature existing E&C portfolio.

“Looking forward, we expect Asset Solutions and IES to continue to deliver strong performance. Notwithstanding the short-term challenges in the existing E&C portfolio, we continue to expect the second half of 2022 to mark an inflection point for a sustained period of growth in backlog. We have a healthy 18 month Group bidding pipeline and we expect to grow the E&C backlog in 2022 and to secure significant new orders in 2023, underpinned by opportunities in the UAE and offshore wind.”

I continue to believe that Petrofac is on the way back and whilst they emphasise it is a 2023 recovery there are green shoots in 2H 2022. Indeed, Petrofac and Hitachi Energy, a market and technology leader in transmission, distribution and grid automation solutions, have entered into a collaboration to provide joint grid integration and associated infrastructure to support  the rapidly growing offshore wind market, a market we all know is full of growth. 

I expect more contract news with gains across the board but as one perspicacious analyst put it at the meeting, not just winning numbers but bidding work that will make money. Indeed in the E&C division the pipeline is of the order of $53bn, split $14bn:$39bn this year and next. 

The shares have been all over the place running up by 60p in April and May and has lost 40p of that this last month. I remain totally convinced that the lack of investment in oil and gas in recent years that has mainly caused this latest hike will have to be reversed and Petrofac will be amongst those benefiting from the change.  

President Energy

President has announced its audited results for the year ended 31 December 2021 and a 2022 update and outlook.

Peter Levine, Chairman, commented:

“The year under report was very significant for President and has resulted in a welcome return to net profit after tax after considering all depreciation and impairments as well as the spin-out of Atome Energy from the Group.

“Excluding depreciation, the core business in Argentina delivered significantly increased operational profits year on year with adjusted EBITDA multiplying nearly four-fold together with materially increased Group free and net cash generation.

“Strategically major events occurred in the year. The farm-out of our Paraguay exploration asset to the State energy Company of Taiwan was closed and we will be drilling the first high impact exploration well there later in the year. The spin out and IPO of Atome Energy, our green energy company was successfully completed at the very end of the year with some £20 million of added value generated for our shareholders from both a dividend in specie and the subsequent healthy rise in Atome’s share price where its market capitalisation is more than President’s despite the latter still owning approximately 28% of Atome.

“With the benefit of new drilling in Argentina just starting to be felt, oil prices rising in our core activity areas and the prospect of continued new strategic initiatives in both our core hydrocarbon businesses and new alternative energies through our new subsidiary, Green House Capital, we view the future with quiet confidence”.

President has returned to net profit and of course the Atome Energy IPO went well although it was generously priced, to go as it were. Chairman Peter Levine rightly questions the logic of the value of President versus Atome which in my view yet again proves that the former is massively undervalued if any proof was needed. 

Argentina is still looking good with reduced opex and higher receivables, and along with high impact exploration later this year potentially substantial upside is potentially very exciting. 

Getech

Getech has reported that it has signed a 5-year extension to a multi-faceted geospatial services contract with a customer of its transitional petroleum division. The new contract has a total value of £1.65 million.

Services provided by Getech will include the design, implementation and management of geospatial operating systems that are essential for aboveground safety, environmental protection, and security on a large and complex asset.

Adjusting the end-2021 order book position for contracts that have since converted to revenue in H1 2022, this new contract delivers significant growth in the value of Getech’s current total order book – adding material recurring revenue over the next five years.

Getech’s Chief Executive Officer, Dr Jonathan Copus, commented:

“As the world works to deliver a sustainable and secure path to decarbonisation, it is essential that transitional petroleum activities are conducted to the highest ESG standards. The 5-year extension of this geospatial contract will see Getech continuing to contribute to the safe, efficient, and environmentally responsible delivery of an internationally important piece of energy infrastructure.

Our industry-leading geospatial products and skills help our customers integrate, visualise, and analyse key business data, which they use to improve operational efficiency, derive new insight, and enhance decision making. These benefits are valuable across the energy transition.

In our target growth markets of critical minerals, storage, geothermal, and hydrogen, we are using this expertise to build our sales pipeline and to locate, develop and operate our own portfolio of low carbon assets.

With the investment in natural resource supply diversification a global priority, we consider Getech to be well positioned to deliver transformational growth for our shareholders.”

This is a meaningful contract for Getech with its long term and significant value of some £1.65m. The company will use its expertise to design, implement and manage the geospatial operational systems with regard to safety, environmental protection and security of the asset. 

This contract has other attractions in that it will add to revenues over the duration and uses existing technologies and skills already in place at Getech. Like other shares in the sector it has performed poorly and is some 40% from the peak, deals like this can only help recover some of that lost performance.

Coro Energy

Coro has announced its final results for the year ended 31 December 2021.

 FY 2021 Highlights 

·    Acquired an early stage South East Asian renewable energy portfolio with an initial focus on the Philippines

·    Established basic operating infrastructure in the Philippines and initiated planning and permitting activities

·    Continued progress toward commercialising the Mako gas field (Duyung PSC, Coro 15% interest), with the Duyung PSC operator focused on key commercial workstreams including preparation of an updated Plan of Development and signing binding Gas Sales Agreement

·    Raised net proceeds of approximately US$5.5m through a placing and open offer to fund the Group’s low carbon energy investments

·    Announced a new partnership in Vietnam with Vinh Phuc Energy to develop rooftop solar projects and initiated a 3MW pilot including signing a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement for the pilot

·    Mark Hood joined as Chief Executive to bring clean energy experience to the Executive team

Post Period End

·    Successful restructuring of the Company’s €22.5 million Eurobond, now maturing April 2024

·    Relaunch of the Company’s producing Italian gas portfolio against the backdrop of recent structural changes in European gas prices

James Parsons, Chairman, commented:

“Coro Energy plc is a micro cap company with gas production, gas reserves and a growing clean energy portfolio. Underpinned by its strong Italian production and four institutional lenders, Coro’s shareholders are exposed to a leveraged play on the oil price.

Our strategy remains to monetise the Duyung PSC, use the Italian cash flows, which more than covers the Company’s G&A costs, and invest selectively in South East Asian renewables and high graded Italian production enhancement opportunities.

Recent volatility in energy markets have presented huge opportunity to Coro with the rebirth of the Italian portfolio alongside a significant uplift in the core NAV of its position in the Duyung PSC. It is in this context that we are delighted to present our annual report and accounts to shareholders.”

Like many other energy shares, after a very good run from Christmas to Easter the wheels have come off and nothing they can say or do is going to change that, a shame because this is a sprightly set of finals.

Justifiably so as they have added renewables in Vietnam and the Philippines and after years of uncertainty the jury is still out on keeping Duyung. G&A costs are now ironically being financed by the Italian assets which are throwing off cash after the sale fell through and which will now be ‘high graded’ with any remaining cash going into renewables. 

Coro are in good shape and the shares should make back the recent falls as the strategy is getting together and in particular the South East Asian prospects look good. 

The opinions expressed here are those of the author

Author @mgrahamwood

Disclaimer: Malcy’s Blog is provided for general information about the international oil and gas industry and the companies that operate within it. It does not constitute investment advice and Malcy does not buy or sell shares, warrants or bonds in any company written about within the blog. Information is taken from publicly available sources and any comment is that of the author who does not take any third party comment in the blog


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