Trump’s Trade War Bill Is Coming Due, Warns TD Bank
The hidden price tag of Donald Trump’s trade war hasn’t hit America’s wallet yet — but it’s coming, says banking giant TD.
Thomas Feltmate, director at TD Economics, argues that goods inflation is about to kick higher as more companies push rising tariff costs straight onto consumers. Translation: everyday items are about to get more expensive.
For the Federal Reserve, that means walking a tightrope. Cut interest rates enough to jolt life back into a cooling jobs market, but not so much that they accidentally pour fuel on the inflation fire.
“We see the Fed delivering on three quarter-point cuts by year-end, with the first coming at next week’s meeting,” Feltmate predicts.
So why hasn’t the pain shown up yet? TD says businesses were given breathing space early on — exemptions, carve-outs, and the chance to stockpile goods before tariffs really bit. Many firms even switched suppliers overseas to dodge the squeeze.
But that grace period is ending. With Trump’s administration slapping tariffs of 10–41pc on more than 60 countries since August 7 — and fresh sector-specific tariffs in the pipeline — TD warns the days of muted price rises are “nearing the end of their runway.”
In short: the trade war hangover is only just beginning, and consumers could soon be paying the tab.
