Gold trades around $4,150/oz as Treasury sell-off continues and the dollar holds firm
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Amaroq (AMRQ LN) – Production ramps up with 25-35koz guidance reiterated, FTSE 250 Index inclusion
Andrada Mining (ATM LN) – Latest drilling at Lithium Ridge identifies new zone of mineralisation
CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) – Pilot trial validates the Laguna Verde flowsheet and delivers 99.75% lithium carbonate
East Star Resources (EST LN) – Drilling about to start at the Rulikha Exploration target, Kazakhstan
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – IRH non-binding all cash offer received
White Cliff Minerals (WCN AU) – Latest drilling from the Danvers target, Nunavut
Gold ($4,135/oz) trades around $4,150/oz as Treasury sell-off continues and the dollar holds firm
- Gold prices are now down more than a fifth since the US-Iran conflict began in February.
- The sell-off in US Treasuries continues, with longer-dated yields hitting fresh 24-year highs.
- The dollar continues to hold close to its strongest level this year, with a French bond sell-off pulling the euro lower.
- Fed officials continue to play down an October hike, with traders pricing only a ~20% chance.
- Minutes from the September meeting are due on Wednesday.
- Gold ETFs flat at 101.0moz, with silver ETFs falling 0.6moz to 803.1moz.
Barrick secures 15-year mining licences for North Mara in Tanzania
- Barrick, who hold 84% of North Mara in Tanzania, report a 15-year licence renewal.
- Unit’s first-half attributable output fell 47% to 68koz.
- AISC rose 79% to $2,283/oz.
- However, 2026 guidance is unchanged at 200-230koz.
- That leaves 132-162koz to come in the second half.
- Barrick is studying upgrades to clear bottlenecks and expand the North Mara-Bulyanhulu complex.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.18% | at | 51,268 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.05% | at | 70,684 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.75% | at | 24,220 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.31% | at | 3,842 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -2.1 | at | 5.28 |
Currencies
US$1.1215/eur vs 1.1200/eur previous. Yen 158.18/$ vs 157.72/$. SAr 16.610/$ vs 16.707/$. $1.322/gbp vs $1.322/gbp. 0.697/aud vs 0.695/aud. CNY 6.706/$ vs 6.706/$.
Dollar Index 102.18 vs 102.30 previous.
Economics
Gulf oil flows ex Iran climbed to over 80% of pre war levels in September (Reuters)
- Shipment of crude, condensate, and refined fuels including LPG averaged 19.2mbbl, according to Vortexa data.
- That compares to an average of 23.6mbbl in the year before the start of the war.
- Gulf producers are reported to have adapted to attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping by relying on so-called dark transits switching off tankers’ tracking devices.
- Brent is sub $100/bbl this morning.
France – 10y bond yields pulled back after hitting a high of nearly 5% on Friday on fiscal concerns and political uncertainty.
- Government push to enact an unpopular 2027 deficit-cutting budget through a divided parliament is driving investors out of French debt into Bunds.
- The French/German 10-year spread is at its widest since the 2010-12 debt crisis.
Spain – Snap elections called for 29 November
- PM Pedro Sanchez’ decision was announced after parliament last week rejected his housing decrees.
- The bet is that nationwide protests over housing affordability can mobilise the left behind him.
- Socialists (PSOE) led by Sanchez trail in nearly every poll with a fragile governing coalition in place.
- Polls point to the opposition PP plus far right Vox at a combined 203 of 350 lower house seats vs 112 for PSOE and partner Sumar.
Brazil – Local stock market closed +12% yesterday (Ibovespa) as Flavio Bolsonaro beat predictions taking the lead with the second round now planned for later this month (25 October).
Indonesia – National mineral exchange is set to open on 1 January 2027
- Indonesia’s financial regulator OJK is drafting the technical rules for its Mineral and Strategic Commodities Exchange.
- The exchange is targeted to begin operating on 1 January 2027.
- OJK took over supervision from the futures regulator Bappebti on 17 September.
- The new rules will set out how the exchange, its clearing house and its custodians operate.
- They will also cover who can broker trades and which products can be listed.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,135/oz vs US$4,157/oz previous
Gold ETFs 101.0moz vs 101.0moz previous
Platinum US$1,709/oz vs US$1,726/oz previous
Palladium US$1,165/oz vs US$1,178/oz previous
Silver US$60.8/oz vs US$61.5/oz previous
Silver ETFs 803.1moz vs 803.7moz previous
Rhodium US$9,000/oz vs US$9,000/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,420/t vs US$14,340/t previous
Aluminium US$3,134/t vs US$3,123/t previous
Nickel US$15,595/t vs US$15,685/t previous
Zinc US$3,735/t vs US$3,711/t previous
Lead US$1,878/t vs US$1,863/t previous
Tin US$54,400/t vs US$54,075/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$99.5/bbl vs US$101.4/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices edged lower on further signs of increasing crude oil flows out of the Middle East, as Saudi Aramco CEO commented that it would take up to two years to rebuild inventories drawn down during the Middle East conflict.
Natural Gas €76.0/MWh vs €74.4/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $89.7/lb vs $89.8/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$91.6/t vs US$91.2/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$479.2/t vs US$479.2/t
HCC FOB Australia US$263.0/t vs US$262.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$149.0/t vs US$148.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$39,245/t vs US$39,245/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$110,268/t vs US$110,268/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$19,161/t vs US$19,161/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,735/t vs US$1,735/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,875/mtu vs US$1,875/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,925/mtu vs US$2,925/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$243/lb vs US$243/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.1/kg vs US$26.1/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$183/t vs US$183/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,952/t vs US$2,952/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,171/t vs US$1,171/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,275.0/kg vs US$4,275.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$450.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.0/lb vs US$33.0/lb
EV & Battery news:
Renault to invest over €10bn in France over five years on EVs and affordable cars, CEO says
- Renault Group will invest more than €10bn in France over the next five years in EVs and more affordable cars, CEO François Provost said in a France Inter radio interview, conditional on the social and political context allowing it.
- This follows €13bn invested in France over the past five years to reshape Renault’s industrial footprint around EVs.
- Renault produced 500,000 cars in France in 2025 and expects output to rise by at least 25% in 2026, due to rising EV demand.
- Electric cars reached a record 42% of new car registrations in France in September, according to the report, with demand boosted by the spike in fuel prices since the start of the Iran war.
Company news:
Amaroq (AMRQ LN) 123p, Mkt Cap £432m – Production ramps up with 25-35koz guidance reiterated, FTSE 250 Index inclusion
- The Company released a brief quarterly production update for the Nalunaq Gold Mine, Greenland.
- The mine delivered ~12koz in 3Q26.
- Stronger production helped by better recoveries following commissioning of the flotation circuit earlier in summer.
- That takes gold production YTD to ~21koz.
- 2026 guidance reiterated at 25-35koz.
- Separately, the Company to be added to the FTSE 250 Index from October 8 helping demand from index tracking funds.
Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 6.85p, Mkt Cap £145m – Latest drilling at Lithium Ridge identifies new zone of mineralisation
- Andrada Mining reports drilling results from a further 23 holes at the Lithium Ridge prospect in Namibia.
- The results are the fifth batch of results from the programme which is “being advanced under a strategic earn-in partnership with SQM International (“SQM”), one of the world’s leading lithium producers”.
- Today’s announcement confirms the down-dip continuity of lithium-bearing pegmatites as well as the “structural thickening of the targeted pegmatite swarms” and that the drilling has identified “consistent high-grade mineralisation within a newly identified pegmatite that occurs outside the LR trendline” which a map accompanying the announcement appears to show lying northwest of the main trend.
- The announcement also confirms the presence of “pervasive” tin and tantalum “across the pegmatite bodies, with localised zones such as 0.25 m at 1.03% Sn and 227ppm Ta in hole LRD061, 0.95 m at 0.57% Sn in LRD074, and 0.36 m at 604 ppm Ta in LRD045”.
- Among the results highlighted in today’s announcement are:
-
- A 9.03m wide interval at an average grade of 1.64% Li2O, 0.21% tin and 101ppm tantalum from a depth of 63.83m in hole LRD-042; and
- A 34.90m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.02% Li2O, 0.13% tin and 91ppm tantalum from a depth of 184.42m in hole LRD-045; and
- A 10.66m wide interval at an average grade of 1.13% Li2O, 0.09% tin and 30ppm tantalum from a depth of 0.90m in hole LRD-060; and
- An 11.35m wide interval at an average grade of 1.16% Li2O,0.14% tin and 49ppm tantalum from a depth of 34.16m in hole LRD-066.
- It also confirms that “Six drill holes, namely, LRD058, LRD065, LRD076, LRD082, LRD095, and LRD101, either did not intersect significant pegmatite lithologies or intersected intervals that did not meet the minimum reporting economic cut-off threshold”.
- Welcoming the positive “high-grade intersections … [which, he said are] … confirming that we are still uncovering the full potential of the Lithium Ridge licence … [CEO, Anthony Viljoen said that the latest drilling also confirms] … that newly identified pegmatites beyond the main mineralised trend at Lithium Ridge also contain substantial lithium mineralisation”.
Conclusion: The latest drilling results from Lithium Ridge has identified a new mineralised pegmatite as well as continuing to demonstrate the down-dip continuity of lithium mineralisation within the main trend zone.
CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) 7.25p, Mkt Cap £26.5m – Pilot trial validates the Laguna Verde flowsheet and delivers 99.75% lithium carbonate
- CleanTech Lithium, who are developing the 15,000tpa Laguna Verde lithium project in Chile, report pilot trial results.
- The trial processed 24m3 of brine at Lanshen’s pilot plant in Santiago, replicating the PFS design.
- Lithium adsorption yield and capacity at the DLE stage beat the PFS benchmarks.
- A DuPont FilmTec nanofiltration membrane rejected 99.8% of magnesium and 95.0% of calcium.
- Lithium recovery through the membrane ran at 98.3%, also ahead of the PFS baseline.
- An ion exchange polishing stage then cut calcium and magnesium below 1mg/l.
- Reverse osmosis and forced evaporation recycled over 90% of desorption water into the DLE circuit.
- Forced evaporation ran with no salt precipitation reducing potential scaling risks.
- The Company produced 5kg at laboratory scale, with three samples assaying 99.69-99.75% Li2CO3.
- Alex Stewart Laboratory ran the analysis and all three cleared the 99.6% battery grade mark.
- The project now moves towards a definitive feasibility study, with the PFS completed in March.
- CEO Ignacio Mehech said the trial ‘supports the PFS modelling under continuous pilot-scale operating conditions.‘
East Star Resources (EST LN) 9.4p, Mkt Cap £54m – Drilling about to start at the Rulikha Exploration target, Kazakhstan
- East Star Resources reports that it has mobilised a drilling rig for an initial 5-hole programme (~1,500m) at its Rulikha copper project in East Kazakhstan.
- The drilling aims to “verify historically logged mineralisation … across two target areas … [and will be funded under the September 2026 agreement with the Kazakh company, Nova Limited] … at no further cost to East Star”.
- The agreement with Nova provides that East Star “is fully carried to production, at which point it will hold between 25% and 35% of the producing mine”.
- In November 2025, an independent consultant identified a JORC compliant target of between 15-23mt in the grade range of 1-2% copper at Rulikha which is described as a “Soviet-era …Deposit”.The consultant recommended follow up measures including “Verification/twin drilling of Vein 1 and upper lens system … [as well as] … Infill drilling to confirm continuity and reduce spacing … [and] … Metallurgical sampling”.
Conclusion: Initial drilling, aiming to confirm historic results, is about to start at the Soviet era Rulikha deposit in Kazakhstan. East Star Resources is fully funded to production at Rulikha as part of its September 2026 agreement with Nova Limited.
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 233p, Mkt Cap £218m – IRH non-binding all cash offer received
- The Company received a non-binding cash offer from International Resources Holdings.
- No price or terms were disclosed.
- The team said that it had note press speculation and confirmed they are in discussions with IRH.
- The Company cautioned there can be no certainty that a firm offer will be made.
- IRH is an Abu Dhabi mining and trading group with interests across Africa, and its board is headed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a brother of the UAE president.
- Under Irish Takeover Rules, IRH has until 5pm November 17 either to make a firm offer or walk away.
- The Company produces ilmenite, rutile and zircon at the Moma Mine in Mozambique.
- The offer follows another approach in March 2025 led by Oryx Global Partners and former MD Michael Carvill that offered all-cash 530p/sh that was rejected at the time.
- The consortium withdrew in June 2025 after failing to agree on valuation.
- Separate media reports quoted Carvill that he is not involved or not aware of any fresh bid interest in Kenmare.
- Kenmare produced 430kt including 273kt ilmenite in 1H26 generating $149m in revenues (-11%), $4.4m in adjusted EBITDA (-91%yoy) and $34.1m in loss after tax; net debt stood at $175.8m as of 1H26.
- The stock was up nearly 45% this morning.
White Cliff Minerals (WCN AU) A$0.027, Mkt Cap A$91m – Latest drilling from the Danvers target, Nunavut
- In an announcement to the ASX today, White Cliff Minerals reports that recent drilling at its Danvers 1 target within the Rae Copper project in Nunavut, Canada has shown visible copper mineralisation at depth beneath the historic envelope of sediment-hosted mineralisation.
- Infill drilling, in hole DAN26-047, “designed to infill … [a] … 200m gap at Danvers 1” intersected 76.5m at an average grade of 2.01% copper and 5.72g/t silver from a depth of 49.5m with “further assays pending”.
- White Cliff Minerals explains that the results from DAN26-047 “reinforces the continuity of the southwest-plunging high-grade zones within the Danvers 1 core”.
- The company says that “This interpretation will guide follow-up drilling along the wider trend, where individual step-out holes currently provide only an initial test of the strike extensions”.
- The company says that drilling “has continued at Danvers 2 and 3 and to the northeast of Danvers 1 where Phase 1 drillholes often exceeded 650m spacing along strike”.
- A map included in today’s announcement shows the Danvers 2 geophysical target located southwest of Danvers 1 and the Danvers 3 ‘Central’ target located west of Danvers within a general NE trending HTEM anomaly extending over around 6.5km along the Teshierpi Fault Zone.
- The results of the 2026 drilling are contributing to the geological model and “improving the Company’s understanding of the scale and controls of the copper system”.
- Exploration within the wider Rae project area includes the commissioning of an airborne magnetic, gravity and radiometric geophysical survey “to cover an extensive 70km strike length … to sharpen geological interpretation and further vector targeting across this large-scale copper system”.
- The planned geophysical survey includes “the Thor and Rocket targets, where 2024 surface rock sampling identified high-grade vein and breccia systems” and will help to guide target selection for future drilling.
- Managing Director, Troy Whittaker, said that the recent drilling at Danvers 1 reinforces the company’s understanding of the “continuity between neighbouring holes and … [reinforces] … our understanding of the southwest-plunging high-grade trend … [providing] … a clearer basis for targeting the richest parts of the system”.
Conclusion: The recent drilling at the Danvers target in northern Canada is verifying the continuity of mineralisation at depth and providing insights into the geological setting to sharpen future drill targeting.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 1.6% | 3.7% | Freeport-McMoRan | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Rio Tinto | 1.1% | 2.1% | Vale | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| Glencore | 1.3% | 4.5% | Newmont Mining | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Anglo American | 0.6% | 5.4% | Fortescue | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Antofagasta | 1.7% | 6.9% | Teck Resources | -1.0% | 4.2% |
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
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Analysts
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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