Gold slides as dollar rallies whilst China boosts reserves
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Allied Gold (AAUC CN) – Sales jump on higher sales and realised gold prices with guidance reiterated
Barrick Gold (GOLD US) – Quarterly results show rising Nevada costs and sliding production
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Outcome of Capital Raising
Gemfields Group (GEM LN) – Gemfields restarts open-pit mining to recover emeralds at the Kagem mine in Zambia.
Greenheart Gold (GRHT CN) – Initial drilling results from Majorodam, Suriname
Lundin Gold (LUG CN) – Exploration results form Ecuador
Lundin Mining (LUN CN) – Q1 results as focus on developing Vicuna district
KoBold to acquire AVZ’s stake in giant DRC lithium project
Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Construction of civil engineering for additional flotation plant at the Zulu Lithium and Tantalum Project
Tungsten West (TUN LN) – Satisfaction of Part B of convertible loan note and receipt of £0.9m
Gold ($3,340/oz) slides as dollar rallies whilst China boosts reserves
- Gold prices have fallen $100/oz following their post-May Day holiday surge to $3,440/oz.
- The metal saw an influx of Chinese buyers taking opportunity of the dip following their five day holiday.
- However, this buying has slowed, following record high volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
- China added to their gold reserves for the sixth straight month as it continues to diversify its foreign reserve holdings.
- Chinese officials are shoring up the economy, reducing reverse repo rates and preparing for a more entrenched trade war with Trump’s administration.
- Powell noted no hurry to reduce rates in his press conference yesterday, with US 10-year yields climbing, lifting the dollar.
KoBold (Private) to acquire AVZ’s stake in giant DRC lithium project
- Silicon Valley-backed AI-driven exploration company announced yesterday they are approaching a ‘commercial framework enabling the rapid development of the Manono deposit’ with AVZ.
- The agreement sees AVZ ‘selling its commercial interest in the Manono lithium deposit to KoBold for fair value.’
- AVZ and KoBold are working with the DRC government to progress the asset.
- Additionally, AVZ has committed to proposing to the DRC Government a temporary suspension of the ICSID arbitration proceedings.
- The DRC had previously handed part of the Manono mining permit to China’s Zijin.
- KoBold’s proposal enables AVZ to receive compensation, whilst allowing Zijin to develop the northern portion of the Manono deposit. (Bloomberg)
- Rio Tinto has also held talks with Congo and with KoBold to develop part of Manono.
- The DRC and the Trump Administration are currently in discussions over a minerals deal, in return for ‘security’ backing against rebels to the east.
- AVZ reported the Manono MI&I resource at:
- 842mt at 1.61% Li20, 709ppm Sn and 37ppm Ta.
- Roche Dure MI&I Resource at 669mt at 1.61% Li2O.
- AVZ had also released a DFS in 2020 seeing:
- 20 year LOM processing 4.5mtpa at 60% lithia recoveries using DMS only to produce 700ktpa SC6.
- CAPEX estimated at US$546m
- FOB SC6 costs estimated at $350/t, including $230/t in transportation costs.
- Post-tax NPV10 of US1bn and IRR of 33% assuming $495/t SC6 prices.
- Elsewhere in lithium, BYD and Tsignshan have dropped plans to develop lithium processing projects in Chile amid the ongoing price slump. (Bloomberg)
- The Companies had been exploring lithium carbonate processing plants in Chile using SQM feedstock.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.70% | at | 41,114 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.41% | at | 36,929 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.43% | at | 22,790 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.28% | at | 3,352 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +2.7 | at | 4.30 |
Economics
US – The Fed held rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, in line with expectations, for a third consecutive time.
- The FOMC voted unanimously highlighting increasing concerns over inflationary effect of Trump tariffs.
- The “right thing to do is a wait further clarity”, Jerome Powell said.
- Trump announced a series of tariffs on 2 April, although, most were paused for 90 days a week later.
- Yields finished the day lower, albeit, only marginally (-4bp at 4.28% for 10y) while shares indices were slightly up on the day.
UK/US – President Trump to announce its first trade deal later this afternoon with Britain reported to be the first country to have reached an agreement. (FT)
- The deal is expected to be focused on the car and steel industries that were hit with a 25% rate.
- Baseline 10% tariff is likely to remain in place.
- British officials have also been talking with the US administration in an effort to avert future US tariffs on products including pharma and aerospace
- Britain is likely to cut duties on US imports in return with potential reductions to its 10% tariff on car imports as well as levies on meat and shellfish products.
UK – The BOE is expected to cut rates by 25bp later today signalling that another move is likely in June as trade war clouds trade outlook while higher taxes domestically weigh on consumer sentiment.
- If cut in June that would mark first back to back reductions since 2009.
China – Authorities are considering a major overhaul of its property market curbing pre sales.
- Developers may now be required to sell only completed properties effectively reducing avenues of available funding for construction.
- The current pre sales system has been widely blamed for fuelling excess supply in the sector with a number of unfinished projects fuelling public discontent.
- Pre housing crisis that kicked off in 2021 ~90% of new homes were pre sold compared to 74% recorded in 2024.
Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow for his four day visit that coincides with the military parade to be held tomorrow to commemorate the anniversary of the end of the WW2.
Currencies
US$1.1291/eur vs 1.1362/eur previous. Yen 144.43/$ vs 143.17/$. SAr 18.302/$ vs 18.249/$. $1.328/gbp vs $1.335/gbp. 0.642/aud vs 0.648/aud. CNY 7.237/$ vs 7.232/$
Dollar Index 100.085 vs 99.401 previous
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,349/oz vs US$3,391/oz previous
Gold ETFs 88.7moz vs 88.7moz previous
Platinum US$979/oz vs US$987/oz previous
Palladium US$963/oz vs US$973/oz previous
Silver US$32.5/oz vs US$33.0/oz previous
Rhodium US$5,375/oz vs US$5,375/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,405/t vs US$9,480/t previous
Aluminium US$2,394/t vs US$2,395/t previous
Nickel US$15,545/t vs US$15,685/t previous
Zinc US$2,619/t vs US$2,623/t previous
Lead US$1,949/t vs US$1,933/t previous
Tin US$31,705/t vs US$31,775/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$61.4/bbl vs US$62.9/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices edged lower after the Federal Reserve held US interest rates steady and Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariffs could lead to higher inflation and unemployment.
- The EIA estimated US inventory w/w draws of 2mb to crude and 1.1mb to diesel, partly offset by a 0.2mb build to gasoline stocks, with refinery utilisation up 0.4% w/w to 89%.
- European energy prices are stable ahead of a vote on more relaxed gas storage rules, as EU natural gas storage levels rose 2.4% w/w to 41.6% full (vs 51.3% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 470TWh.
- Harbour is planning a 25% reduction in headcount (250 jobs) at its Aberdeen-based UK HQ to align with lower investment levels in light of the continued challenging domestic fiscal and regulatory environment.
- Genel announced that talks between the KRG and Iraqi Oil Ministry regarding the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline are ongoing, but no material progress has been made since March and the timing of a restart remains uncertain.
- Centrica now expects the Rough storage division to record an operating loss at the top end of the £50-100m range as constructive discussions continue with the UK Government to secure a regulatory support mechanism that unlocks £2bn of investment to increase capacity and ultimately convert it into a hydrogen- storage facility.
Natural Gas €34.6/MWh vs €34.6/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $69.8/lb vs $69.8/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.6/t vs US$99.8/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.5/t vs US$469.8/t
HCC FOB Australia US$187.5/t vs US$188.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.0/t vs US$104.8/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$57,065/t vs US$56,966/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,760/t vs US$8,877/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$735/t vs US$755/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$373/mtu vs US$363/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$287/t vs US$287/t
Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,513/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg
Battery News
Toyota expect 21% profit decline on the back of global uncertainty
- In an announcement today, Toyota has said it expects profit to decline by 21% for this financial year.
- The company cited weakness of the US dollar and the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs as main factors for the estimated decline in profit.
- Toyota, who are the world’s largest automaker, anticipates new levies on US imports will cost them approx. $1.24bn across April and May.
- However, the company believes currency movement would have the greatest impact on its full year forecast, at $5.15bn.
- The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs has seen the dollar weaken, and many industry experts believe they will trigger price increases in the US, leading to a downturn in consumer sentiment.
Toyota are not the only automaker to have already experienced the impact of Trump’s tariffs
- Ford is set to raise the price of its Mexico-produced models, including the Mustang Mach-E, Maverick and Bronco Sport, by as much as $2,000.
- Volvo are also expected to cut 5% of jobs at its South Carolina plant, citing the new tariffs.
CPCA estimates China NEV wholesale up 42% yoy for April to 1.14m
- The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) has estimated that total NEV sales reached 1.14m units in April, up 42% yoy and 1% from March.
- China’s vehicle sales always start the year slowly, particularly in January and February, with a number of holidays
- We will keep an eye out for official figures as this year could see another hugely successful year of EV sales in China, despite the rest of the world seeing a significant slowdown.
Company News
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 0.0% | 0.2% | Freeport-McMoRan | -2.4% | 2.7% |
| Rio Tinto | 0.1% | 0.2% | Vale | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| Glencore | -0.7% | 2.4% | Newmont Mining | -1.1% | 2.5% |
| Anglo American | -1.3% | 0.6% | Fortescue | -0.7% | -1.2% |
| Antofagasta | -1.5% | 2.2% | Teck Resources | -2.7% | 0.2% |
Allied Gold (AAUC CN) C$5.8, Mkt Cap C$2.0bn – Sales jump on higher sales and realised gold prices with guidance reiterated
- Total sales totalled 132koz at $1,811/oz AISC (1Q24: 85koz at $1,597/oz) with portfolio assets breakdown including:
- Sadiola 92.0koz $1,799/oz (1Q24: 45koz $1,597/oz);
- Bonikro 21koz $1,582/oz (1Q24: 21koz $1,879/oz);
- Agbaou 19koz $2,125/oz (1Q24: 19koz $2,125/oz).
- Revenues $346m (1Q24: $175m) reflecting stronger sales volumes helped by destocking at Sadiola and realised gold prices.
- EBITDA $103m (1Q24: $29m).
- PAT $15m (1Q24: -$6m).
- Guidance reiterated for 375-400koz at $1,690-1,790/oz AISC with production to be weighed towards 2H in a 45%/55% split.
- Cash position stood at $232m as of quarter end with a further $67m raised post 1Q25.
- Heding programme launched with zero cost collars for 15.5kopzm in gold production between June 2025 and March 2026 and locking in gold prices in the ~$3,050-4,000/oz range.
- Kurmuk Gold Project development works ongoing with first production on track for mid-2026.
- The mine to run at 240kozpa and $950/oz AISC over LOM.
- Sadiola Phase 1 Expansion commenced 4Q24 with production to start 4Q25.
- Expansion involves installing additional crushing and grinding capacity dedicating one of the lines to treating fresh rock.
- Post expansion the plant to treat up to 5.7mtpa with 60% of fresh ore and operation running at 200-230kozpa before Phase 2 is implemented.
- Phase 2 involving expansion to 10mtpa is expected to start construction late 2026 and commissioning late 2028 taking Sadiola run rates to 300kozpa (40kozpa in first four years) reducing AISC to $1,200/oz.
Barrick Gold (GOLD US) $19.4, Mkt cap $34bn– Quarterly results show rising Nevada costs and sliding production
- Barrick reported attributable EBITDA of $1.4bn, down from $1.7bn prior quarter but up from 1Q24.
- Free cash flow reported at $375m vs $501m in 4Q24.
- Company produced 758koz over the quarter vs 1,080koz prior quarter.
- Realised gold price at $2,898/oz vs $2,657/oz prior quarter.
- AISC reported at $1,775/oz vs $1,451/oz.
- Copper production at 44kt vs 64kt prior quarter, AISC reported at $3.06/lb, same as prior quarter.
- Debt steady at $4.7bn, cash also steady at $4.1bn.
- Management expects costs to ‘trend lower over the rest of the year’ on higher production, improvements at Nevada Gold Mines.
- Bristow highlights that Barrick is also ‘building a substantial copper business which will be a meaningful contributor to growing production volumes in the coming years.’
- As regards Mali, where Barrick’s top asset Loulo Gounkoto is currently shuttered, Bristow stated that ‘it’s frustrating that it’s not operating because this country really needs that contribution… {but} we are very much engaged in discussions. I never give up.’
- LouloG Ounkoto produced 723koz last year.
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 12.5p, Mkt cap £4.8m– Outcome of Capital Raising
- Beowulf, developing the high-grade iron ore project Kallak in Sweden, reports the outcome of their equity raise.
- The Placing has raised a total of £1m gross through the issuance of 8,981k new shares.
- The rights issue has raised £1.2m gross.
- The retail offer raised gross proceeds of £0.12m.
- Proceeds will be used to repay the SEK10m bridging loan financing and will provide funding through to early 2026 as Beowulf progresses the delivery of the Kallak PFS.
- Management notes that further funding will be required, and the Company is exploring opportunities to ‘attract strategic partners and investors, both at the corporate and asset level.’
Conclusion: Beowulf’s equity raise supports the progression of the high-grade Kallak iron ore project towards the delivery of the PFS. Additionally, the Company is advancing the GAMP graphite project with vital environmental permitting. Both high-grade iron ore concentrate and graphite anode materials are facing secular tailwinds from the green transition, West Australian grade depletion and increasing geopolitical tensions driving the diversion of raw material supply chains away from China. Beowulf is well positioned to benefit from these trends.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining
Gemfields Group (GEM LN) 4.25p, Mkt Cap £50m – Gemfields restarts open-pit mining to recover emeralds at the Kagem mine in Zambia.
(Kagem emerald mine ownership 75% Gemfields, 25% Zambia IDC)
- Gemfields reports that it will restart focussed open-pit mining to recover more premium emeralds at the Kagem mine in Zambia.
- “Kagem suspended all mining from 1 January 2025 to focus on processing ore from Kagem’s significant ore stockpile utilising the upgraded processing plant.”
- “Emerald production from the processing plant in 2025 so far, in terms of carats recovered, has been in-line with the Company’s expectations, producing a lower proportion of higher-quality or premium emeralds than direct open-pit mining methods.”
- “Kagem’s recent auction results, including the encouraging commercial-quality auction results released on 30 April 2025, has increased management confidence in the current emerald market and the decision has therefore been taken to recommence mining of two key production points in the Chama pit, with minimal waste mining, to recover premium emeralds for Kagem’s future higher-quality auctions.”
- Gemfields recently reported the sale of ~2.4m carats representing US$16.4m worth of emeralds at auction in Jaipur at end April.
- 32 lots of emeralds were sold vs 36 lots offered with an average price of US$6.87/carat marking a notable improvement on the commercial-quality auction last September 2024.
- Gemfields withdrew very low-quality material, weighing 112,000 grams and representing 18.5% of the total weight offering is reported to have delivered a positive improvement in overall pricing vs the US$4.47/carat seen in September.
- Mining: The Kagem mine is a very interesting operation. The mine moves an extraordinary amount of waste material to get to areas which are rich in emeralds.
- The friable ore in each of these emerald-rich reaction zones between the metabasites and pegmatites where hydrothermal fluids have led to the formation of emeralds are carefully mined by hand under the oversight of tight security.
- The recovered stones are then cleaned, sorted and stored for auction.
Conclusion: The return to focussed mining appears to be driven by some uncertainty in the scale of demand for emeralds and an element of prudent caution. Management are looking for stronger indications before returning to full-scale mining.
*The analyst has formerly visited the Kagem emerald mine and process facilities in Zambia
Greenheart Gold (GRHT CN) C$0.9, Mkt cap C$133m – Initial drilling results from Majorodam, Suriname
- Greenheart reports drill results from their programme at the Majorodam gold project, Suriname.
- The Company report reconnaissance RC drilling results, with three ‘highlight’ holes among six holes returning anomalous intercepts.
- Highlights include:
- MAJR25-003: 13.0m at 4.37g/t Au from 53m
- MAJR25-009: 13m at 0.4g/t Au.from 1m
- MAJR25-010: 30m at 2.06g/t Au from 96m
- MAJR25-014: 5m at 0.33g/t Au from 16m
- MAJR25-015: 40m at 1.49g/t Au from 24m
- MAJR25-017: 5m at 0.6g/t Au from 2m
- 20 RC holes have been completed over 2,138m across five fences.
- Gold mineralisation hosted within units comprised of mafic volcanics, volcaniclastics and fine grained clastic sedimentary rocks.
- At Igab, Company notes ‘numerous anomalous areas’ from ridge and spur soil sampling, with an extensive soil sampling survey now underway to define targets.
- At Lemon Tree, to the southwest of the Igab licence, trenching has returned 31m at 1.36g/t Au.
Lundin Gold (LUG CN) C$60, Mkt cap C$15bn – Exploration results form Ecuador
- Lundin Gold announce exploration results from their near-mine exploration programme around the Fruta del Norte mine.
- The Company notes high-grade intercepts from the conversion programme at FDN South, confirming the deposit’s continuity.
- Including: FDN-C25-196: 72.8g/t over 8m from 76m (includes 1,320g/t over 0.4m), FDN-C25-204: 40.6g/t Au over 13.9m from 44m, FDN-C25-198: 48.8g/t Au over 6.45m from 146m.
- Studies are underway to integrate FDNS into FDN’s 2026 long-term mine plan
- At FDN East, the company notes high-grade results for growth potential.
- Including: UGE-E-25-248: 14.3m at 7.1g/t Au from 230m and 4.6g/y Au over 23m from 321m.
- At Trancaloma, Company sees the potential for a copper-gold porphyry system at surface.
- TRL-2024-220 intersected 0.41% Cu, 0.10 g/t Au, 1.51 g/t Ag, and 14.21 ppm Mo (0.50% CuEq1) over 858.10m from 0.0m, including
- Company sees potential for additional porphyry targets near Trancaloma.
- At Bonza Sur, Lundin confirms the mineral envelope and potential for further extension.
- BLP-2024-205: 162m at 1.1g/t Au form surface
- BLP-2025-267: 58m at 2g/t Au from 75m (including 5.4g/t Au over 19.2m)
- The Company has now expanded the 80,000m programme to a minimum of 108,000m.
- Conversion drilling has been expanded from 15,000m to 25,000m, with near-mine exploration expanded from 65,000m to 83,000m.
- Management sees a ‘growing pipeline of targets around Fruta Del Norte’
Lundin Mining (LUN CN) C$11.8, Mkt cap C$10.1bn – Q1 results as focus on developing Vicuna district
- Lundin Mining produced 76.8kt Cu over the quarter, and 32koz Au, on track for guidance.
- EBITDA of $388m reported and $337m of adjusted operating cash flow, revenue of $964m.
- Copper cash costs of $2.07/lb, to lower end of guidance.
- Company realised $1.4bn from sale of European assets and is targeting $220m in annual shareholder returns.
- LUN is focused on their 50/50 JV with BHP to develop the Vicuna district.
- Net debt currently at $1.7bn, with cash at $342m.
Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.032p, Mkt Cap £14m – Construction of civil engineering for additional flotation plant at the Zulu Lithium and Tantalum Project
- Premier African Minerals reports the start of civil engineering works for the additional float plant along with orders for the inserts to the existing cleaner cells.
- Work is due to start at Zulu in the coming week with delivery and commissioning of the inserts due in June and final installation of the additional spodumene circuit in Q3.
Tungsten West (TUN LN) – 3.7p, Mkt cap £7m – Satisfaction of Part B of convertible loan note and receipt of £0.9m
- Tungsten West reports the satisfaction of terms in respect to Part B of its convertible loan note and has received £0.9m of Tranche G.
- Tranche G which totals £2.8m is designed to provide for the continuation of work on studies towards a robust plan and economic model, which the Company has substantially completed.
- “The full feasibility study, if required, will be published in Q2 2025.
- This will lead to a financing round in H2 2025 which will enable the Company to ramp up towards the recommencement of tungsten and tin production in H2 2026.”
- Tungsten prices:
- Tungsten ore 65%min WO3 EXW China prices have risen 7% to CNY153,500 from CNY143,000 over the past month as China restricts the availability of tungsten exports.
- Tungsten APT 88.5%min prices in Rotterdam have jumped 5.5% to US$385/mtu from US$365/mtu over the past month.
- Tungsten APT 88.5%min prices FOB China have also risen 4% to US$372.5/mtu from US$357.5/mtu.
Conclusion: Tungsten demand is principally driven by machine tools using tungsten carbide in cutting bits, metal products, high-strength steels and chemicals. While China cut export quotas it has also cutback on mining quotas for tungsten concentrates indicating a move towards limiting production to internal demand.
*The analyst has formerly visited the Hemerdon tungsten mine. An SP Angel Mining analyst built and commissioned the Los Santon tungsten mine in Spain.
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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35-39 Maddox Street London
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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