Zak Mir and Clem Chambers of Anewfn.com in conversation on market positioning, geopolitical risk, and trading tools.
Clem says he has held through the recent downturn, looking to capture autumn rebounds. They also discuss UK takeover activity targeting mid-tier blue chips, with Clem buying into Recruitment stocks in small positions spread across the sector.
Clem also described how the Iran hostilities have raise oil prices, pushed gold down, and governed Bitcoin flows. He goes on to describe the need for reindustrialisation and AI to boost Europe and America. This scenario drives commodity and tech demand going forward.
I have got a lot right in the markets recently, but that does not mean it has been painless. Getting out at the right time is one thing. Getting back in at the right time is another.
When markets were heading lower, I had the familiar dilemma: sell, potentially miss the recovery, or sit through the punishment and allow the positions to work over time. I chose to hold through the summer weakness. My chin has taken a few blows, but that is part of the game.
The important point is that a few strong holdings can make an enormous difference when the wider market feels grim. Names such as Guinness House Co, EasyJet and PayPal have helped offset much of the general malaise.
There is a broader lesson here. You can successfully trade in and out of a position, yet still end up worse off than if you had simply held a good business through a temporary decline. Trading is not just about being right on the exit. It is about being right on the re-entry too.
The UK Market Is Being Strip-Mined
Takeover activity in the UK is relentless. One company after another is being picked off, because British valuations look extraordinary compared with American valuations.
US companies in certain sectors may trade on very high sales multiples. Meanwhile, perfectly respectable British businesses can be available at a fraction of their sales. If you are an overseas buyer, a larger listed group or private equity fund, that gap is hard to ignore.
It is not generosity. It is simply an obvious commercial opportunity.
Britain has been losing businesses, technology companies and established brands for years. You can complain about it endlessly, or you can ask the more useful question: who could be next?
The Most Likely UK Takeover Candidates
The most attractive targets are often what I would call second-line blue chips. They are established companies with real operations, recognisable brands, decent market positions and a history of making money, but they are not so large that a buyer cannot absorb them.
They can appeal to several potential acquirers:
- Larger strategic companies seeking a useful subsidiary or a bolt-on acquisition.
- Sector rivals looking for a merger that creates scale.
- Private equity buyers attracted by low valuations and underlying cash generation.
EasyJet is an obvious type of company in that category. Recruitment firms can fit the pattern too. A struggling former blue chip, or a solid second-line blue chip trading at a depressed valuation, is exactly the sort of hunting ground where takeover interest tends to emerge.
Hays is one company that caught my eye. PageGroup and Robert Walters are others in the same broad recruitment area. These are not fashionable AI dreams. They are long-established businesses that know their industry, have survived multiple cycles and have been marked down very heavily.
Why I Bought Recruitment Stocks
The recruitment sector had charts that looked as though the businesses were heading for zero. That is what got my attention.
The bearish story was straightforward: AI will displace recruiters, companies will hire directly, hiring has weakened since the exceptional post-pandemic period, and therefore it is all over for the sector. But it is almost never that simple.
Recruitment is a real business. Employers still need people. Candidates still need jobs. Labour markets go through cycles, and when sentiment becomes universally negative, share prices can discount a great deal of bad news.
I looked at the charts across Robert Walters, Hays and PageGroup. They were all showing the same deep decline. My thought was simple: watch for the point where they stop falling, begin moving sideways and show that conditions are not deteriorating as rapidly as everyone expects.
Then PageGroup indicated that trading was not quite as bad as feared. The shares moved, and the other recruitment stocks followed. That is a familiar market pattern.
These are smaller and less liquid companies than I would normally use for a full-sized position, so I did not take my usual allocation in one name. Instead, I bought smaller positions across the sector.
- Hays
- PageGroup
- Robert Walters
That gave me a small recruitment portfolio rather than an oversized bet on one share.
The key attraction is that these are proper companies. They have been operating for a long time, they make money, and they understand their trade. When a business like that has been priced as though the world is ending, you should at least pay attention.
Economic Activity Is Not Optional
There is a lot of discussion about people struggling to find work, and there are real difficulties in the labour market. Young people can struggle to get a start. Older people can find themselves excluded too. But there is also a mindset problem.
If someone will pay you to do something useful, there is value in doing it. Stack shelves. Deliver pizzas. Drive a cab. Walk dogs. Mow lawns. Build something. Sell something. Learn a trade. Make a film. Write music. Take a practical opportunity and turn it into the next one.
I met a cab driver with a beautiful performance car. He restored porcelain. He could glue together a valuable piece of porcelain, earn thousands of pounds, then spend the drying time driving his cab. That is economic activity. It is not glamorous in every moment, but it works.
People often say they cannot get work, but the question is whether they are willing to do the work that is available while building towards the work they really want.
If you study film for three years, make films. A modern smartphone is a more capable filmmaking tool than the equipment used for many classic productions. There is no excuse to finish a film course with no body of work, no experiments, no public output and no evidence of what you can do.
Stop moaning. Get off social media. Make yourself useful. Economic activity compounds.
Even a small payment matters. If somebody pays you for a song, an article, a service, a repair or a job you did well, that is not trivial. It is proof that you can create value. Build on it.
Iran, Oil, Gold and the Logic of a Siege
Geopolitical markets are always difficult, but there is a basic question worth asking: what is the actual strategy?
In the Iran conflict, there are only a few broad options. You can run away, invade, or impose a siege. Running away is politically difficult. A full invasion is extremely difficult and may only happen if events spiral badly. That leaves the siege.
A siege is not necessarily constant bombardment. One day there may be military action, another day sanctions, blockades or pressure on supply routes. The objective is to contain, weaken and isolate an opponent over time.
The strategic logic is to reduce Iran’s ability to move oil, acquire supplies and exercise influence through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. If alternative pipelines and supply routes reduce the importance of Hormuz, Iran becomes less able to use the chokepoint as leverage.
That does not make the situation neat or predictable. It means the likely shape is a long, grinding confrontation rather than a quick resolution.
Why the Nuclear Issue Matters
The essential issue is nuclear proliferation. It is not simply about whether a weapon can fit on a long-range missile. A nuclear device does not necessarily need to arrive by missile to be catastrophic.
Making a compact, missile-deliverable weapon is technically demanding. But a larger device moved by ship or concealed in a container is a different kind of risk. That is why preventing proliferation has been a strategic priority for decades.
Once a country gets a nuclear weapon, the situation changes permanently. Other regional powers may feel compelled to acquire one too. The consequences spread rapidly, and the number of potential flashpoints multiplies.
Countries that gave up nuclear capabilities or inherited arsenals have seen how security guarantees can become uncertain. That is precisely why nuclear weapons create such a dangerous incentive structure. Possession can deter attack, but each additional nuclear state raises the risk for everybody else.
Why Oil Is Not Automatically Exploding Higher
If oil is not moving sharply higher despite conflict, the market may be telling you something. The simplest explanation may be that traders see the situation as contained, managed or ultimately solvable through infrastructure and a prolonged economic squeeze.
If the expectation is that transport routes can be replaced, supply can be redirected and the conflict becomes a siege rather than a regional explosion, oil does not have to continue rising indefinitely.
A major escalation or a full invasion could change that quickly. It could also support gold. But absent that kind of escalation, the market may see more grinding pressure than an immediate energy shock.
Why Gold and Bitcoin Can Fall During Conflict
People often assume that war automatically means higher gold and higher Bitcoin. It is not that simple.
Countries under severe economic and military pressure need to pay for equipment, supplies and other things that go bang. That means selling assets. Gold can be sold. Bitcoin can be sold. If pressured states need funding, liquidation can become a source of supply.
That is one reason why gold can fall even when the geopolitical background appears frightening. It is not necessarily a contradiction. It may reflect urgent sellers.
China’s Role as a Gold Settlement Hub
China has become central to trade for sanctioned countries because it is the workshop of the world and a major supplier of goods. If a country does not want to receive dollars that might be seized, and does not want to rely on the international banking system, gold becomes useful.
The arrangement is conceptually straightforward:
- A sanctioned country supplies oil to China.
- China buys and holds gold, potentially in a designated vault arrangement.
- The sanctioned country uses the gold balance to pay for Chinese goods, equipment or supplies.
- Gold provides a settlement mechanism outside the usual dollar and international payments systems.
Gold can be moved physically if necessary. It does not require the same international financial infrastructure as currency payments. That makes it a practical reserve and settlement asset for countries that worry about sanctions or asset seizures.
China, therefore, is not just a buyer of commodities. It is increasingly a workshop, supplier and financial intermediary for a large part of the world.
Reindustrialisation, AI and the Big Investment Model
I like to have a model. My trading model and my investment model are not the same thing.
My trading model is simple. When a company I like falls sharply, I may buy more. If it rebounds, I can trade the additional purchase. If it continues falling, I own more of a business I already wanted to hold. That is how I approach sharp declines in shares such as Ocado.
The larger investment model is the reindustrialisation of the United States and Europe, alongside the AI race.
Western economies cannot permanently hollow out their industrial base, run persistent trade deficits and assume nothing follows. When you buy huge amounts of imported goods with financial claims, eventually the people receiving those claims can buy your assets.
That is what is happening when overseas buyers acquire British companies, major property and famous brands. It is the long-term effect of a balance of payments problem.
If the West does not rebuild productive capacity, it risks becoming a cargo cult economy: consuming the output of other nations while gradually losing the ability to make essential things itself.
AI Requires Electricity, Industry and Materials
There is no second place in AI. If another country has vastly superior AI capabilities, industrial capacity and energy supplies, it gains a major advantage in productivity, technology and military capability.
China has vastly more electricity generation capacity than America. AI runs on electricity. Data centres run on electricity. Semiconductor manufacturing, robotics, industrial automation and advanced infrastructure all run on electricity.
That means competing seriously requires serious investment in:
- Energy generation and grids
- Commodities and raw materials
- Data centres and AI infrastructure
- Robotics and automation
- Technology and industrial production
- Onshoring and supply-chain resilience
If the United States, Europe, Japan and the UK decide they must compete, they will have to go all in. That requires enormous capital spending. It is not a small policy adjustment. It is an economic transformation.
The Bull Case: A Wartime Economy Without the Bloodshed
If the West truly commits to reindustrialisation and technological competition, there will be huge sums of money made on the right side of that trade.
Commodity demand rises when nations build factories, power plants, grids, data centres, defence capacity and industrial infrastructure. Technology, AI and robotics companies benefit from the investment cycle. Energy becomes strategically important again because it is the foundation of everything else.
This has the character of a wartime economy without the direct bloodshed. That sort of economy can create persistent inflationary pressure.
It may not be obvious today. It may not be obvious tomorrow. But inflation can emerge gradually:
- Prices rise a little.
- Then they rise a bit more.
- Demand for materials and labour grows.
- Governments spend more on industrial capacity, security and infrastructure.
- The inflationary process becomes difficult to ignore.
If the political commitment to competition holds, the major themes are clear: commodities, energy, AI, robotics, technology and reindustrialisation.
If the West instead decides to surrender its industrial role and rely on globalisation as it was, then the trade looks very different. Commodity demand could weaken, onshoring could fade, and the competitive AI push could lose urgency.
My view is that Europe has begun turning the corner, albeit slowly. America has clearly recognised the challenge. Japan also has little choice but to respond. The question is not whether the process will be smooth. It will not be. The question is whether the strategic reality has become too obvious to ignore.
The Real K-Shaped Economy
There is a K-shaped economy, but not necessarily in the usual sense of the wealthy getting richer while everyone else gets poorer.
The real divide is between people who are economically active and those who are economically passive.
Some people genuinely cannot be economically active because of illness, disability or difficult circumstances. That is where support matters.
But if you can act, build, learn, trade, work, create, invest or start something, do it. The opportunities are there for the people who make themselves part of the economy rather than merely waiting for the economy to rescue them.
Do not expect trickle-down economics to quench your thirst. Put yourself where the money, information and opportunities are.
Using Real-Time Market Tools to Gain an Edge
Economic activity in markets means having the right information. If you are trying to trade with delayed prices and no visibility of market depth, you are effectively driving through the rear-view mirror.
Anewfn.com has been built to provide the kind of toolkit I want for my own trading. The central idea is simple: give private investors access to serious tools without making them pay £1,000 a year.
What Is Available on Anewfn.com
- Free UK real-time Level 2 data
- Free real-time UK share prices
- Real-time gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices
- US prices for market monitoring, though these are delayed
- Real-time top lists and filters
- Market-cap filtering to focus on the size of companies that interest you
- Streaming intraday charts, with more charting development to come
- Customisable watch lists and portfolios
- Shareable portfolios that can be made public
Level 2 matters because it allows you to see the market structure. You can identify displayed orders, place orders around available liquidity, use hidden orders where appropriate and react to what is actually happening rather than relying on a delayed snapshot.
Without Level 2, you cannot operate with the same precision.
If an important takeover announcement changes a share price before the market opens, a 15-minute delay is no use to you. Real-time information is the difference between knowing where a share opened and finding out what happened long after the opportunity has passed.
Find the Shares That Fit Your Strategy
Top lists and market-cap filters are particularly useful because they reduce noise.
You may want to exclude companies above £100 million. Someone else may only want companies above £1 billion. The point is that you can narrow the market to the names that suit your own method, rather than wasting time on companies you would never buy.
You can also share a watch list that reflects your current positions and interests. That allows others to see what you are monitoring, whether that includes recruitment stocks such as Hays, PageGroup and Robert Walters, or holdings in US shares.
The system is being developed as a next-generation toolkit for UK market participants. It is built from the same principle that drove earlier market-data platforms: if you want to compete, you need proper tools.
Use the Tools, Do the Work, Stay Active
I build market tools because I use them to make money. The tools are there to give private investors a better chance of operating properly in the UK market.
Most people will not use them. Most people do not want to look too closely at the gift horse, even when it is free. They will trade on delayed data, without Level 2, then wonder why better-equipped participants consistently have the advantage.
That is their choice.
My view is that anyone who wants to be economically active should have access to the best available information. The market rewards preparation, curiosity, speed, discipline and a willingness to act when others are still complaining.
Do not go to a gunfight with a knife when you can have a bazooka.
Use real-time data. Look for mispriced businesses. Understand the macroeconomic forces driving commodities, energy, AI and industrial policy. Keep your eyes open for takeover targets. Most importantly, be economically active.
