The Iran Conflict: State Backed Insider Dealing
As part of the extensive research that I carry out for every weekly article, I looked up when insider trading became illegal. The general answer is that it was initially made illegal in the US in the wake of the Stock Market Crash of 1929, in the 1930s. However, both there and in the UK, the laws in their current form only came to be from the 1980s. Therefore, before that time presumably one could knock oneself out on leaking bid stories, profits warnings et al. What is and always has been interesting about insider trading is that it has tended to focus primarily on stocks, and primarily on those who make money on information not generally available. But it does kind of depend on the result. If someone says that there will be a bid for company X at 100p versus 50p now, and it happens, then you are in trouble if you acted on it. If there is no bid and instead a profits warning meaning you lose you shirt, more fool you.
Fortunately, for insider traders it would appear that in the 2020s things have moved on, courtesy of the Trump administration and its Iran conflict. It is far more difficult and unusual to manipulate major majors such as bonds, gold, crude oil. That is of course, unless you are a central bank, government, or major investment bank / hedge fund, when it is relatively straightforward. This is what we appear to be seeing as far as Trump / Crude Oil at the moment. There was certainly a suspicion in the initial phases of the second term when all things digital assets were being promoted, that ahead of “buy Bitcoin” pronouncements, Bitcoin was already on its way higher.
As far as the story of the Iran conflict is concerned, as far as the markets were concerned it started weeks before the February 28. The price of Crude Oil had a slow, but steady melt up from the start of the year. And in some cases minutes before key announcements and events the price has fallen and risen as if there were people in the know. As The Guardian has noted, traders have placed $1bn successful trades on oil. Of course, The Guardian does not like anyone making money. The question perhaps is whether getting lucky on the oil price is something which can be or should be investigated and punished with the full force of the law, or whether it actually can be?
This Week’s Stocks
I have charted IQE (IQE) shares from the lows of the year, a company which given its day job as a global supplier of advanced compound semiconductor wafer products and material solutions, has had its day in the sun. Indeed, it has been months in the sun. This is in contract to relatively recent commentary on the company which questioned its viability. How wrong that was. But perhaps the reason that the shares have gone ballistic is because the market was “facing the wrong way” as far as demand for the company’s products, especially at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. What will be interesting after the Iran conflict is if we will finally learn to make sure supply chains are not dependent on crackpots, tyrants, and lunatics. In a similar vein to IQE, we saw shares of EnSilica (ENSI) finally do what I wanted them to do and be the “next Broadcom (AVGO). Well not quite yet. But a leading X – erati did give the fabless, application-specific chipmaker a positive nod on Friday. This was after the company announced that its shares have been approved to trade on the OTCQX Best Market in the United States on Wednesday. Clearly this initiative worked. The shares were still in the low 50p’s early on Friday when I published my Charting Rundown, looking for 70p by the end of next month. In fact, the shares hit 69.5p by the end of the day.
I was perhaps somewhat unfair to ITM Power’s (ITM) strategic collaboration with Rheinmetall being rather too well anticipated by the market, given that the electrolyzer / green hydrogen specialist has been saying for weeks how well it is doing and expects to do. Well, what do you expect when you are first tapped on the shoulder by the UK government and then NATO?
Unlike some companies who do not necessarily want a large shareholder to be CEO, Kazera Global (KZG) a diversified mining investment company recently did the right thing, and the share price has responded accordingly, rising 50% on the week. This happened in the wake of Dr. Johan Hattingh has been appointed to the Board of the Company as an Executive Director (Technical Director) with immediate effect, following the successful completion of standard regulatory due diligence.
After raising £6m last month it has been clear that Light Science Technologies Holdings plc (LST), the technology and manufacturing business providing solutions to issues including global food security and fire safety, has been in fightback mode at least as far as the share price is concerned. On Friday the company announced that it will release its audited results for the year ended 30 November 2025 on Friday 24 April 2026, as well as an online analyst meeting. Can’t wait.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
