Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Ascent, Aptamer, Active Energy, Bezant, BSF, Cindrigo, Exchange XR, Forgent, MedPal, Marechale, Oracle Power, Quantum Helium, Valereum.
Markets closed the week with a more fragile tone than many would have liked. A few of the major indices are wobbling near key moving averages, crypto remains trapped in uninspiring ranges, gold still looks heavy, and crude is trying to stabilise after a test of long term support.
On the small cap side, there are still a number of charts showing signs of life, especially where price action is tightening above rising moving averages or where failed breakdowns are starting to turn into recovery setups.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
FTSE 100: slipping below the 50-day line
The FTSE 100 ended Friday on a weak footing, and the key technical damage was the close below the 50-day moving average near 10,405.
That leaves the index vulnerable to a retreat toward early June support, with 10,240 the first obvious area to watch over the next few sessions. The geopolitical backdrop has not helped sentiment either, particularly with the renewed tension around Iran and Israel.
If the selling gathers pace, the lower end of the recent range comes in around 10,100. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average just above 10,000 marks a more serious support zone and effectively a worst case near term chart destination.
For now, the hope is simply that the FTSE does not drift too far from the 50-day line and can steady itself before deeper support is tested.
DAX: resistance at 25,000 still in the way
The DAX continues to struggle beneath near term resistance around 25,000. As long as it remains capped there, the risk is a pullback toward the floor of the rising channel and the 50-day moving average near 24,400.
Even with that short term caution, the broader idea is still that the index could eventually break higher and reach the upper end of the March channel, with 26,300 a possible target by the end of next month.
The key condition is straightforward. The DAX needs to stay on the right side of the 50-day moving average. The RSI is sitting in the mid-50s, which at least suggests the market has not given up on another push higher.
Dow: backing away from the top of the channel
The Dow has also lost a bit of momentum after fading from the top of its channel near 52,200. That opens up the possibility of a move back toward late May resistance, now acting as support, around 50,800.
Ideally, that should be enough to contain any near term weakness. If the market can hold that zone and regain traction, the more optimistic target remains the November resistance line near 53,400 by the end of next month.
Bitcoin: still stuck in a broad holding pattern
Bitcoin is not giving much away at the moment. Price remains boxed in between support around 59,000 and resistance closer to 67,000.
Until that range breaks, there is not a great deal to get excited about. The RSI is also failing to help the bullish case, having stayed below the neutral 50 level since the middle of last month.
That means the downside risk inside the falling trend channel is still alive. If the market weakens further, the lower edge of that channel points toward 48,000.
That is not the scenario bulls will want to focus on, but from a chart perspective it remains a valid risk while Bitcoin continues to trade below momentum neutrality.
Ethereum: same problem, weaker structure
Ethereum looks much like Bitcoin, only with a slightly more awkward setup. The broad range sits roughly between 1,500 and 1,850, straddling the February support zone around 1,753.
For anyone looking for a bullish turn, the RSI needs to get back above 50. Without that, rallies are vulnerable to being sold into, particularly near the recent highs toward 1,850.
The falling trend channel is still dominant. A modest test of the lower band is possible, but the wider implication of the channel leaves open the possibility of a move back toward 1,000 if weakness persists.
That may sound aggressive, but given the scale of the decline channel, it is not outside the bounds of the current chart structure.
Gold: rallies still look like selling opportunities
Gold briefly responded to Middle East calm, but with that calm fading, the metal looks vulnerable again. The technical bias is still bearish, and attempts to recover are not yet convincing.
Recent resistance sits near the old May support at 4,360, and that level may continue to hold as a ceiling for a while. On the downside, the next area of interest lies around 3,980 to 3,880.
Momentum is a problem here. The RSI has repeatedly failed in the mid-40s, which is classic behaviour for a weak market. Until that changes, gold remains exposed to further slippage and stop loss hunting beneath the obvious support areas.
WTI crude oil: trying to bounce from the 200-day moving average
Crude oil at least has something constructive to work with after bouncing from the 200-day moving average. That support came in around 73.80, with Friday’s low just underneath at 73.58.
A one-touch rebound from a major long term average often carries technical significance, and in this case it raises the prospect of a recovery toward the top of the latest gap, around 83 dollars.
That said, support has to hold. A daily close below the 200-day line, currently near 73.79, would weaken the recovery case and open the door to a gap fill toward 68 dollars over the next four to six weeks.
Small cap chart ideas
Ascent Resources: Ascent has the look of a classic washout and reversal attempt. The move back toward the year lows around 0.32p may have been the final shakeout before a stronger rally. The setup now points to a break of 0.55p as the trigger for a move toward at least 0.72p, which is the top of the channel stretching back to last September. At this stage, the expectation is that the shares should hold above 0.37p. More cautious traders may prefer to wait for the RSI to push back above 50 before getting involved.
Aptamer Group: Aptamer has not been a pleasant chart to revisit, and the damage over recent months is obvious. Even so, there are faint signs that a base may be developing at the floor of the falling trend channel. There is some bullish divergence in the momentum picture, which gives a little encouragement. If the recovery develops, the target would be the top of the channel and the 200-day moving average near 0.80 pence, potentially by the end of the summer. The more cautious route is to wait for a daily close back above the 50-day moving average at 0.57 pence.
Active Energy: Active Energy continues to produce regular updates, including progress linked to the Middle East, and there may be some reflection of that in the chart. The key positive is the close above a rising 50-day moving average near 0.10 pence. While that support remains intact, the chart favours a move toward the top of the channel around 0.15 pence as soon as the end of next month. The picture would improve further if the 200-day moving average began to slope upward rather than flattening out.
Bezant Resources: Bezant looks one of the stronger setups in the group. The shares are working toward another test of resistance around 0.17p, with 0.18p a realistic target even before the end of this month if current support holds. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising, and the RSI has spent most of the past month rebounding above 50. That is usually the kind of background you want to see in a strengthening chart. If the move extends, the next higher level to keep in mind is 0.23p, which lines up with the upper parallel from the longer term trend structure dating back to mid-2022.
BSF Enterprise: BSF remains one of the market’s battleground names, and the chart still has a range-bound feel to it. The recent bounce came around the old November and December support zone near 0.9 pence, which gives that level some credibility as a trading floor. As long as the shares stay above that area, there is scope for a move to fill the gap toward 2 pence between now and the end of next month. That is a punchy upside call, so the conservative approach is to wait for a break above recent resistance at 1.25 pence to confirm momentum is returning.
Cindrigo Holdings: Cindrigo is starting to look much stronger, helped by positive recent news flow and solid price action. The 50-day moving average is rising close to the lows, and the candles have been notably strong. Three sessions in a row have shown the same pattern: opening near the low and closing near the high. That sort of repeated buying pressure is rarely accidental. There has also been a failed attempt to fill the old gap down toward 4 pence, with price bouncing back above that area. Taken together, that points to a potentially strong recovery, with 9 pence a reasonable objective by the end of next month or into August.
Exchange XR: Exchange XR keeps appearing on the radar because the chart is still grinding higher in a fairly orderly way. The shares are stepping up above a rising 50-day moving average in that classic sideways, then higher pattern. If resistance at 0.27p gives way properly, the next move could carry the shares up toward 0.43p by the end of next month.
Forgent: Forgent has attracted plenty of volume, even if price did not exactly reward that attention on Friday. The important level here is the 50-day moving average near 0.016p, which effectively acts as the line in the sand. As long as the shares remain above it, the top of the revised channel points toward 0.024p.
Medpal AI: One of the more satisfying charts lately has been MedPal, largely because it has actually done what the setup suggested it might. The first target around 4.5 pence was achieved, and the shares are now back above that level. Friday’s price action was especially strong, with the shares opening at the low and closing at the high. That is exactly the sort of candle you want to see when a breakout is trying to establish itself. Above 4.4 pence to 4.5 pence, the next target comes in at 6.6 pence by the end of next month.
Marechale Capital: Marechale continues to develop in an encouraging way. The chart is shaping into a V pattern followed by a bull flag, which is often a useful continuation structure. While the shares hold above recent resistance around 7.25 pence, the breakout case remains live, with 10 pence as the next target, ideally by the end of this month.
Oracle Power: Oracle Power has been off the radar for a while, but the chart has become interesting again. There has been a key reversal to the upside, and price has also bounced from the rising 200-day moving average near 0.045 pence. That gives the chart a more constructive feel. Above that support, the next key event would be a break through 0.06 resistance. If that happens, the shares could progress toward 0.10 pence later in the summer. The usual caveat with Oracle Power is that periodic fundraising has a habit of undermining momentum, so that remains a practical risk even when the chart improves.
Quantum Helium: Quantum Helium is one of the more attractive charts on both a technical and fundamental basis. Price has moved back to the base of a rising trend channel around 0.029p, and that area is acting as support. From there, the chart suggests a possible move to fill the gap up to 0.04p by the end of next month. The setup also has the feel of a bear trap gap reversal, which tends to strengthen the recovery case. It also helps that the company has already dealt with its fundraising and recently delivered encouraging operational news, including confirmation of helium and commercial oil.
Valereum: Valereum is another stock that has spent time under pressure, but the chart is beginning to repair itself. The recovery has been a slow sideways to higher move, and there is evidence that the old support around 2.2 pence is trying to hold again. The immediate requirement is a daily close above the 50-day moving average. Even before that, the break through recent resistance at 2.4 pence and the strong candles suggest that 3.25 pence is a reasonable initial target. The RSI is already back above 50, currently around 53, which adds a little more weight to the turnaround idea.
What stands out across the charts
A few themes are repeating themselves across this market backdrop:
- Major indices are near key support, especially the FTSE and DAX around their 50-day moving averages.
- Crypto remains range-bound, with neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum doing enough to restore bullish momentum.
- Gold still looks vulnerable, with RSI behaviour continuing to lean bearish.
- Crude is at an important inflection point, bouncing from the 200-day line but still at risk if that support gives way.
- Several small caps are improving through rising moving averages, failed breakdowns, bullish candles, and range break setups.
Final take
The broad market picture is mixed rather than outright bullish. There are enough warning signs in the indices and in crypto to stay disciplined, but there are also selective opportunities where individual charts are setting up well.
In this type of environment, the cleaner setups tend to be the ones worth focusing on. Rising 50-day moving averages, RSI reclaiming 50, strong close of day candles, and breaks above recent resistance are still doing the heavy lifting.
For now, the key is to keep an eye on support holding where it should, and to give more respect to charts that are quietly improving while the wider market remains uncertain.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
