Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Cizzle, CellBX,CML Microsystems, Delta Gold, Exchange XR, Genedrive, GSTechnologies, Guardian Metal, Kendrick, Nanoco, RUA, Strategic Minerals, Wildcat.
There is plenty going on across the major indices, crypto, commodities and small caps, but the broad picture is actually not that complicated. In several places, price is sitting at key inflection points. Some markets are holding trend support well enough to keep bullish hopes alive. Others are chopping around in ugly consolidations where discipline matters more than conviction.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
What follows is the key technical setup across the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, WTI crude oil, and a batch of UK small caps that are either setting up nicely or threatening to misbehave.
FTSE 100: still respecting the main rising channel
The FTSE 100 has remained relatively loyal to the floor of the rising trend channel that has been in place since October. That matters, because despite the weakness of the last few months, the market is still broadly respecting the longer-term uptrend.
The area to focus on is 10,180. As long as the index can hold above that zone, the near-term target is a retest of the 50-day moving average at 10,381.
There is still a falling trend channel in play from February, so upside progress is not completely straightforward. The top of that shorter-term channel comes in around 10,550, which means the likely opening range for the start of next week is:
- Support: 10,180
- Resistance: 10,550
The caution flag is the RSI, which remains below the neutral 50 level. That leaves open the risk of a breakdown through 10,160, and if that happens the next obvious destination is the 200-day moving average at 9,848.
For now though, the main rising channel remains intact, and until that changes, the benefit of the doubt still goes to the upside.
DAX: messy price action after a bull trap
The DAX is a bit of a mess at the moment. The price action has the feel of a two-day bull trap, and more specifically it resembles a two-day island reversal. That is not the prettiest setup in the world.
Initial support sits at the 200-day moving average around 24,100. If that fails, the worst-case near-term move would be a retreat to the 50-day moving average at 23,798.
Even so, there is one constructive feature here: the RSI is still above neutral 50. On that basis, the expectation is that the 200-day line should cap any losses for now. It is not a beautiful chart, but it is not a total write-off either.
Dow: a block at 50,000, but the bigger trend still points higher
The Dow remains fairly predictable in one respect: 50,000 has become a brick wall, while the floor of the current range is around 48,800. Beyond that, predictability is in short supply.
There are plenty of voices suggesting that equities and oil are not priced appropriately given the wider geopolitical backdrop, but from a pure charting perspective the setup is still constructive. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising.
That keeps the door open for a clean break above 50,000 and then a move towards the resistance line projection from November, which points as high as 52,500 by the end of next month, possibly sooner.
Without the current geopolitical noise, this would look very much like a textbook mid-move consolidation before another leg higher.
The bearish alternative is more modest for now. A retreat to the 50-day moving average at 47,875 would be the worst-case immediate scenario.
Bitcoin: edging higher towards the 200-day line
Bitcoin is still grinding higher, sitting near the top of the rising trend channel that has been in place since February. It is not exactly exploding, but it is edging up in a way that keeps the upside pressure on.
The next major level is the 200-day moving average at 82,700. At the moment, that looks like a magnet. Even if Bitcoin were to hit that level and then immediately fall back, the chart still suggests it is likely to be tested first.
On the downside, there are two support areas worth watching:
- 50-day moving average: 73,893
- Recent price support: around 78,000
The preference is for support to hold closer to the recent lows near 78,000 rather than forcing a full retreat to the 50-day line.
Ethereum: lagging Bitcoin, but still in decent shape
Ethereum has been a laggard compared with Bitcoin, but it is not doing too badly. Price remains above the rising 50-day moving average at 2,234, and it has not needed to test that line since the start of last month.
The first obstacle is resistance around 2,400. If Ethereum can clear that, the next upside target is the top of the post-February channel, which points to about 2,545 by the end of the month.
If things turn lower instead, then the key breakdown level for the channel is 2,080.
So this remains a chart where patience is required. It is lagging, yes, but it is not broken.
Gold: breakout attempt needs proper confirmation
Gold has managed to break out of its falling trend channel, although the exact channel boundaries can be drawn in a couple of ways. That means there is still a bit of interpretation involved.
The important thing is that a proper bullish break really needs an end-of-day close through the 50-day moving average at 4,900. That has not happened yet.
A move through 4,782 could be the trigger for a run at 4,900. If that happens, the market would at least have a chance to prove the breakout has legs.
On the downside, the main support line from October sits around 4,540. That remains the bigger structural support.
The encouraging part is that the RSI is above neutral 50, so the preference is for gold to push towards 4,900 first and only then worry about whether it fades again.
WTI crude oil: still a rocky ride, with bias to the downside
Crude oil remains volatile, but at the moment the roughness is mostly on the downside. The key resistance area was around 99.00, which had already acted as resistance on the way up and then did the same again into the end of the week. The actual rejection zone around 98.64 was impressively precise.
Below that, the immediate focus is on:
- 50-day moving average: 94.37
- Floor of the rising trend channel: 94.00
In broad terms, this looks like a 90 to 99 market for now. If price breaks back below the 50-day moving average, then the risk shifts towards the mid-80s.
With the RSI now below the neutral 50 level, the bias is more towards a test of 90 than a break through 99.
Small-cap stock charts worth watching
The most interesting action is often in the smaller names, and there are several charts here that are either setting up well or already moving hard.
Cizzle Biotechnology: living up to the name: For once, the shares really are sizzling. The initial target is 3.4p, and beyond that the chart points to 4.75p by the end of next month. The recent break above 2.88p has improved the setup significantly. The suggestion from the price action is that somebody in the market is expecting good things.
CellBX Health: gap higher, then constructive reset: CellBX has broken through recent resistance after an upside gap and subsequent gap fill. That sort of pattern can often produce a stronger base because the stock proves it can hold the move rather than simply spike and vanish. Above the 50-day moving average at 0.93p, the target is the top of the broadening triangle from January at 1.3p, with that move expected by the end of next month or sooner.
CML Microsystems: classic sideways shuffle above a rising 50-day line: CML Microsystems has slipped into small-cap territory with a market cap of around £48 million, which puts it squarely in play here. The stock is above broken resistance at 254p, and the technical target is the top of the broadening triangle at 370p by the end of next month. Ideally, price now stays above the 200-day moving average at 268p. The more interesting feature, though, is the pattern of consolidation above a rising 50-day moving average. This is the classic sideways shuffle. It is one of the best breakout signals around, particularly when it comes to the size of the eventual move. The stock is already responding in the right way.
Delta Gold: momentum chart with serious upside: Delta Gold remains one of the more eye-catching setups. It already delivered the sideways move above a rising 50-day moving average back in the low 40s at the end of March, and that laid the groundwork for the surge to 125p. Now the shares are racing towards the February resistance projection at 170p. The strength of the candles is hard to ignore, with repeated open-low, close-high sessions that suggest very aggressive buying. Above 170p, the top of the rising trend channel from March points to 200p and even as high as 235p by the end of June. As long as price remains above the channel floor from earlier this month near 144p, the path of least resistance remains higher.
Exchange XR: punchy chart, punchy target: This is one that has already featured recently, and it is worth another look. The chart appears to be building a small bull flag around the 50-day moving average at 23p. Above that, the target is the top of the broadening triangle base at 49p by the end of next month. It is an ambitious target, but this is also an ambitious chart. The key condition is that the stock stays above recent broken resistance at 22p.
Genedrive: still a dog, but trying to break out: Genedrive has been a complete dog for a long time and has not exactly stopped being one since the autumn. That said, there is at least a glimmer of technical interest now. The shares look to be breaking through recent resistance at 1.1p. Above that, the target becomes 1.8p, in line with the top of the rising trend channel stretching back to September. It is an interesting setup, though one obvious caveat remains: fundraises permitting.
GS Technologies: quantum computing gets the market interested: GS Technologies shows just how much can be done with an 85% rise. Whether the market fully understands the business is another matter, but the buzzwords are certainly in the right place. Quantum computing and fintech remain market catnip. Technically, the stock has broken the 50-day moving average around 0.28p, and above that the target is the top of the falling trend channel at 0.49p by the end of this month, perhaps sooner.
Guardian Metal: an unwelcome disappointment: Guardian Metal is one of the few charts here that has genuinely disappointed. Since listing years ago, the shares have mostly rewarded bullish patience, but this time the picture has weakened. The stock has fallen out of the rising trend channel, with the floor of that channel around 215p. That opens the door to a retest of March support around 187p. What makes this move more concerning than previous pullbacks is that the 50-day moving average, which had reliably underpinned earlier dips, now appears to be flattening out. That change in slope is worth respecting.
Kendrick: back to life after a bear trap rebound: Kendrick is doing the opposite of letting anyone down. The stock has come back strongly after a bear trap rebound from below the 50-day moving average at 2.75p. The top of the channel points to 4.25p, and that target could be reached by the end of this month or sooner, especially while price remains above 3.5p.
Nanoco: serious-looking breakout: Nanoco is hard to ignore when the chart starts looking like this. The key move has been the breakout through major resistance around 6.2p. Above that, the target becomes the top of the broadening triangle base at 10p by the end of next month, and possibly sooner. What makes the setup more compelling is that the price move is being supported by a longer-term RSI uptrend running back to September. Everything is lining up rather neatly.
RUA Life Sciences: upside extension after channel breakout: RUA Life Sciences has pushed through the top of its rising trend channel at 21p. Once a stock escapes the top of a trend channel, the next step is often to project a parallel upper boundary, and in this case that gives a target as high as 31p this month. The ideal scenario is simply that price holds above 20p while making its way towards the 30p-plus region.
Strategic Minerals: rebound from the 50-day line: Strategic Minerals looks as though it is being well supported in the market. The chart improved after the stock bounced from the 50-day moving average on Friday. The next hurdle is recent resistance around 5.75p. Above that, the top of the rising trend channel from October points to 8p by the end of next month. The chart is already trying to get moving, even if someone else ends up taking the credit later.
Wildcat Gold: violent rebound and a golden cross setup: Wildcat Gold had a bruising week, but the response on Friday was emphatic. The shares finished the day up 46%, which is not a bad way of sticking two fingers up to the bears. The original upside objective was 0.1p, which would take the market cap above £3 million. With the company only needing £2 million to be on Aquis, there is a fair case for further upside if that level is cleared. Above 0.1p, the next target is 0.16p by the end of next month. Only a move back below the 200-day moving average at 0.067p would seriously delay the upside case. Until then, the chart suggests Wildcat Gold is on its way.
Final thoughts
The major markets are mixed but not chaotic. The FTSE 100 is still trying to honour its broader uptrend, the Dow is congesting beneath a huge round number, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain constructive enough to keep upside targets in play. Gold is trying to turn higher properly, while oil looks more vulnerable than bullish for now.
Among the small caps, the strongest charts are generally the ones showing either a clean breakout from established resistance or that reliable sideways shuffle above a rising 50-day moving average. That theme comes up again and again because it works. When a stock consolidates without giving much back, and does so above a rising average, it often means the next move can be much bigger than expected.
There are a few warning signs in the mix, most notably Guardian Metal and, to a lesser extent, the more speculative names where financing risk never disappears. But overall, there are still plenty of charts here with enough structure to justify bullish targets over the coming weeks.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
