Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, eEnergy, Eurasia, Europa, Georgina, GCM, Getech, Hamak, Mobico, Sage, Tracsis.
The broad market tone remains surprisingly resilient. Oil has pushed higher amid renewed Middle East tension, yet the main equity indices are still edging up rather than rolling over. That is an encouraging backdrop, although every chart has a level where the bullish case stops working.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Major Indices: Still Pushing Higher
FTSE 100: 11,000 remains the upside prize
The FTSE 100 is working its way up inside the rising channel drawn from March. The optimistic target had been a move above 11,000 by the end of next month, but the present momentum leaves an outside chance of reaching it sooner.
The key levels are straightforward:
- Upside target: just above 11,000 at the top of the rising March channel.
- Nearer support: 10,750, the old initial July resistance level.
- Deeper support: 10,615 around the falling March channel.
With oil rising and the index still firm, the market is showing more underlying strength than might have been expected. A sharp reversal, or rug pull, would put 10,750 back into focus first.
DAX: A bear-trap reversal, but 25,300 must hold
The DAX looks a touch more grounded. It produced an unusual bear-trap gap reversal from below the 50-day moving average and is still, just about, holding the top of the gap around 25,300.
As long as that area holds, the next test is July resistance around 25,900. The better outcome would be a move towards 26,300, the upper boundary of the rising March channel, by the end of next month. RSI at 56 leaves room for the market to rise, even if the latest three candles are not exactly thrilling.
If the market loses its footing, the favoured downside destination is the lower edge of the channel near 24,800.
Dow: Back above 52,000
The Dow has regained the important 52,000 level after a bear-trap move below it. The gap closed on Friday, followed by a break through resistance, so the immediate technical picture has improved.
- Core support: 52,000.
- First upside objective: 54,000 at the top of the April rising channel.
- Best-case projection: 54,500 by the end of next month.
- Downside risk: 51,500, the floor of the April channel.
For 54,500 to become realistic, a proper reduction in Middle East tensions would probably help. For now, remaining above 52,000 is the main requirement.
Crypto: Bitcoin Holds Its 50-Day Line While Ethereum Builds a Flag
Bitcoin: The 50-day moving average is doing its job
Bitcoin is attempting to bounce from a rising 50-day moving average, which is exactly the positive continuation setup needed here. The low of the day remained above that rising average, rather than breaking down through it.
- Initial resistance: 67,800 at the October resistance line.
- Upside target: 71,700 at the 200-day moving average.
- Major support: 61,000.
RSI has pushed back above neutral 50, which adds weight to the bounce argument. The chart is fiddly enough to keep people looking for a collapse below the 50-day line, but that very scepticism may be disguising a recovery. A break below the average would be a warning, while 61,000 appears to be the hard support below.
Ethereum: An extended bull flag in a quiet range
Ethereum has spent the last couple of weeks stuck in a fairly dull range between 1,850 and 1,950. However, it is above a rising 50-day moving average, and the repeated RSI rebounds above 50 since the beginning of the month are healthy signs.
The working view is that this is an extended bull flag. A break through 1,970 would confirm the breakout idea, with the 200-day moving average at 2,122 as the upside target. While the price holds above the rising 50-day line near 1,763, dips towards that average can be treated as buying opportunities in technical terms.
Gold and WTI Crude: Diverging Commodity Signals
Gold: Below 4,030, the path still points lower
Gold has weakened despite heightened Middle East conflict. That sounds counterintuitive, but when fear rises, holders can sell gold precisely because it is a store of value and a liquid source of cash.
The key technical issue is the failure to remain above the recent breakout level at 4,030, which marked the break of July resistance. RSI has repeatedly failed below neutral 50 since the middle of May. That leaves the chart vulnerable to a move down towards 3,900, October support.
There may still be the occasional sharp upward spike to make life uncomfortable for bearish positions, but the underlying technical bias remains lower until the chart can recover 4,030 convincingly.
WTI crude: A 200-day bounce points towards the gap
Crude oil has received a geopolitical push higher and has bounced above a rising 200-day moving average. That creates the possibility of a move to fill the gap near $87.
- Confirmation level: an end-of-day close above the 50-day average at about $81.55.
- Upside objective: $87, the gap-fill target.
- Fallback support: $75.81 at the 200-day moving average.
RSI has bounced from 50, so the technical bias is currently more towards filling the gap at $87 than dropping away. The 50-day line remains the immediate level to clear.
Small-Cap Charts:
- Eenergy Group: W-shaped turnaround with RSI confirmation: eEnergy has a W-shaped turnaround pattern. The more interesting detail is that the second price low came with a much stronger RSI reading, a positive divergence suggesting selling pressure may be fading. An end-of-day close through 3p resistance would improve the picture materially. Above that, the 50-day moving average near 3.8p is the target for the end of next month. It is a liquid-looking recovery setup, but the 3p close is the trigger to watch.
- Eurasia: Bear trap reversal with 3.3p in sight: Eurasia has bounced in a bear-trap gap reversal from the 50-day line, which itself appears to be turning higher. The last two candles have been clean, and the chart is shaping up for a break of the February resistance line. As long as 2.46p holds, the recovery argument remains valid. The shares have also avoided the usual stream of negative noise so far, which is a welcome change.
- Europa Oil & Gas: Above two rising averages: Europa Oil & Gas has bounced above both the rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That is a continuation signal, reinforced by an extended RSI uptrend from February and a developing golden cross. The immediate resistance is 1.9p. A breakout would put 2.9p in view by the end of next month, provided the price remains above the 50-day average at 1.63p.
- Georgina Energy: 10p nearly reached, 8p is now the key: Georgina has broken both its resistance line and its triangle around 6.5p. The original target was 10p, and the shares have already reached 9.75p, which is close enough to count as a solid effort. The February resistance has been retested, so there may be more in the tank. The bullish view remains intact while the shares stay above 8p. If the price can clear 10p, the upper parallel projection points towards 14p, potentially by the end of next month or into September. That is a more ambitious scenario, so 8p is the line in the sand for now.
- GCM Resources: A potential intermediate rally after a disappointing pullback: GCM is trying to break above its 50-day moving average at around 4.1p. If that break holds, the next objective is the 200-day moving average at 6p plus by the end of next month. After the pullback from the February peak, this is not yet a full recovery story. It does, however, look capable of producing an intermediate rally.
- GETECH Group: Golden cross recovery setup: Getech, formerly GTC, is a chart that was missed earlier in the move, but the golden cross this month remains significant. The top of the broad rising channel is near 3.8p.
- Near-term support: 2.9p.
- Recovery target: 3.8p.
- Best-case next target: 5.1p, the old support area, if 3.8p breaks.
The shares suffered a dramatic decline during 2024, so this remains a recovery situation rather than a chart with no baggage. Nevertheless, the technical structure has improved.
- Hamak: A gold explorer with a history of short-lived spikes: Hamak has moved on from its Bitcoin treasury adventures and is now being viewed as a gold exploration play. The shares have gapped through the 50-day moving average at 0.71p, opening the way towards 1.1p, the top of the falling trend channel. There is one major caveat: the chart has produced plenty of one-day wonder spikes in the past. The bullish setup only has credibility if the price can remain above 0.71p. A return below that line would resemble the failed rallies seen in January, April and May, so there may be a few battle-scarred bulls around.
- Mobico Group: Break through 26.5p puts 34p to 35p on the table: Mobico has broken above resistance at 26.5p, helped by a strong company update with revenues and other results moving sharply higher. The technical target is 34p to 35p, potentially by the end of next month and possibly sooner if momentum persists. If the shares can get through 34p quickly, the next projected level is around 47p. That is the level to keep on the chart for future reference, but 34p to 35p is the first job.
- Sage: A breakout in a company not known for excitement: Sage may not be the most glamorous chart, but it has broken its 200-day moving average at £9.40 for the first time since at least last summer. That gives an initial target of £10.40 by the end of next month. The more encouraging feature is the rise through an unfilled upside gap while the 50-day average is rising. It suggests the move has legs, provided the price stays above the 200-day moving average.
- Tracsis: V-shaped bull flag attempts another move: Tracsis has fallen back, but it is having another go, which is generally a constructive sign. The chart resembles a V-shaped bull flag, with a gap through the 50-day moving average at £3.32. Holding above that 50-day line, together with an RSI rebound above 50, gives more confidence in a move towards £4.20 by the end of next month. The catalyst is not obvious from the chart alone, but technically the setup remains constructive while those support conditions hold.
The Levels That Matter Most
The recurring theme across these charts is simple: bullish structures are appearing, but they need their moving-average supports and breakout levels to remain intact. The market is offering plenty of upside targets, from the FTSE 100 above 11,000 to Bitcoin at 71,700 and crude at $87, but none of those targets are guaranteed.
For the major indices, the key test is whether resilience can continue despite elevated geopolitical risk. In crypto, the 50-day averages are doing the heavy lifting. In the small-cap space, several charts are showing bear-trap reversals, golden crosses and breakout attempts, but support levels need to be respected.
The best charts are the ones where price, moving averages and RSI are all moving in the same direction. Where that alignment disappears, the bullish case needs to be reassessed quickly.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
