Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, ADM, Ascent, Alkemy, Acuity, CapAI, Cizzle, Cindrigo, Ceres Power, One Media, Rome Resources, Seraphim, and Xeros.
The market setup going into the end of April is not exactly pretty. Across the major indices, commodities and crypto, there are some obvious pressure points, and in a few cases, the charts are starting to look distinctly awkward.
That said, there are still pockets of resilience, and several small-cap names are shaping up far better than the wider market.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
FTSE 100: slipping into a dangerous area
The FTSE 100 is not in a great place. The key issue is that the 50-day moving average is now falling, and price has broken below the floor of the rising trend channel that had been in place since October.
That leaves the market looking vulnerable. The first meaningful support below current levels comes in around 10,080, which marks the initial support from March. If that gives way, the chart starts to open up to a more uncomfortable scenario.
The real concern would be a move towards the floor of the falling trend channel from February, which points down towards 9,700. That area would also bring the 200-day moving average into play. The FTSE managed to bounce from that zone last month, but this time around there is no guarantee it will be so forgiving.
It is also a very binary market at the moment. Good geopolitical news, especially around Iran, and equities could take off. But for now, with stocks under pressure and oil moving higher, the backdrop is distinctly unfriendly.
DAX: still holding on, but only just
The DAX still has a technical case for staying constructive, but that case rests heavily on one level: the 50-day moving average at 23,900.
For the moment, the index is just about hanging on above that line. If it fails, the next target looks to be 23,700, which also lines up with the April gap area. On the upside, the best-case scenario remains a move back towards 24,700, which would fill the gap from early March.
The encouraging feature here is momentum. Despite the wobble, the RSI remains above the neutral 50 level. So if you are trying to make the bullish argument, there is still some technical support for that view, at least while the index stays above the 50-day line.
Dow: range-bound, with 52,000 still the optimistic target
The Dow is still managing to hold inside a relatively tight mini-range. Price action is sitting between roughly 48,800 and just under 50,000.
If the market can break higher, the top of the channel or triangle from November suggests a possible move towards 52,000 next month. That is the upbeat scenario.
More likely in the near term, though, is a retest of the 50-day moving average at 47,800 before any serious attempt at further progress. So this is not a broken chart, but it may still need one more washout before it can reset properly.
Bitcoin: recovery holding up better than many expected
Bitcoin continues to hold up surprisingly well. The rebound from the beginning of February has lasted longer than many would have expected, and that in itself is a positive sign.
The most important feature on the chart is that support has held above the old 75,000 resistance. That former ceiling is now acting as a platform. If Bitcoin can break 80,000, which marks the top of the February channel, the next target becomes the 200-day moving average at 84,400.
On the downside, dips towards the sharply rising 50-day moving average at 72,000 are still being viewed as buying opportunities. Momentum is helping the bulls here too, with the RSI at 59, comfortably above neutral.
Ethereum: trying to break out of its falling channel
Ethereum is in a more delicate position, but there are signs of improvement. The market is having a go at breaking out of the falling trend channel, with the key line coming in around 2,260.
If price can clear that area properly, the next obvious target is the top of the broader February channel at around 2,550.
The danger area is around the 50-day moving average at 2,200. If Ethereum slips back through that level, the breakout attempt starts to look shaky.
The encouraging element again is momentum. There has been an RSI rebound through the 50 area, which gives the chart a better look than it might otherwise have. Even so, the broader setup from February to April resembles some previous formations that resolved to the downside, so this remains one to treat with care.
Gold: fading quickly
Gold has gone from looking stable to looking weak rather quickly. The hope had been that 4,600 would hold as the floor of the recent range, but that is now slipping away.
The market is back near April support at 4,550, and if that level breaks, it becomes difficult to avoid a retest of the 200-day moving average at 4,265.
Technically, this has some resemblance to the FTSE setup. In both cases, there has been a failure around the 50-day moving average, and both charts are beginning to point towards a potential meeting with the 200-day line.
That does not mean the two markets are related, only that their chart structures currently share an uncomfortable similarity.
WTI crude oil: motoring higher
WTI crude oil is doing the opposite of gold. It is motoring higher and has already pushed above $92.
The near-term expectation had been a move towards $105, and the chart still supports that kind of move. If there is an end-of-day close above $105, then the next leg could extend towards $115 or higher.
For now, the market appears to be trading in a $98 to $105 zone. Earlier in the week there was an RSI rebound through the 50 level, and that signal has worked nicely for the oil bulls.
Even if there is a near-term rug-pull, it is difficult to see this market falling much below the floor of the rising trend channel from January, which comes in around $88.
Small-cap stock
ADM Energy: all about the 200-day line: ADM Energy remains one of those “mission impossible” charts where the next move is difficult to pin down, which admittedly makes it more interesting. The old gap floor at 0.45p is important support. What the chart really needs now is an end-of-day close through the 200-day moving average at 0.48p. If that happens, there is a decent chance of a retest of the 0.8p area, which marked the intraday spike high.
Ascent Resources: coiled up for a move: Ascent looks like a coil spring. Price is sitting near the top of its channel at 0.7p, and a break above that keeps alive the possibility of 1p by the end of next month. The technical backdrop here is constructive. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both rising. A golden cross appeared earlier this month. The chart remains positive while holding above 0.6p
Alkemy: back in business after the bear trap: Alkemy did not quite make it to the hoped-for £5 level, although 466p was not a bad effort. More importantly, the shares appear to be back in business after a bear-trap gap reversal from below the 200-day moving average at 290p. The minimum upside target from here looks to be the 50-day moving average at 360p. That is the level to watch over the next week or two.
Acuity RM: gap higher potential if support holds: Acuity is one of those stories that has been promising a lot for quite some time. From a charting perspective, though, it may finally be coming together. The shares are moving off the floor of a rising trend channel, with an unfilled gap to the upside. The first target is the 200-day moving average at 0.92p. Above that, the chart points towards 1.2p by the end of next month. Ideally, the stock holds above the 50-day line at 0.8p in the meantime.
CapAI: a punchy chart: CapAI continues to look very good indeed. The initial target had been the top of the falling trend channel at 1.45p, and the shares have almost hit that already with a high around 1.445p. What stands out now is the sideways consolidation above a rising 50-day moving average. That suggests a low is in place. While the shares remain above the post-December resistance at 1.3p, the chart supports a fresh leg higher, potentially to 2.7p by the end of next month. It is a punchy target, but it is also a punchy chart.
Cizzle Biotechnology: quietly constructive: Cizzle may keep a relatively low profile, but the chart is improving. The shares have delivered good bounces above a rising 50-day moving average and above recent resistance at around 2.5p. That leaves the door open to at least 3.4p by the end of next month.
Cindrigo Holdings: bear-trap reversal suggests upside: Cindrigo has put in a bear-trap gap reversal from below February support at 5.2p, and that gives the chart a much better tone. Above that level, the next target is the 200-day moving average, with scope for a move as high as 9.75p by the end of next month. There is also an initial target around 7p.
As long as the shares hold above the 50-day moving average at roughly 5.75p, the bias remains to the upside.
Ceres Power: momentum still strong: Ceres Power has been flying. The second near-term target was above 460p, while the next major level being looked for was 600p. The stock reached a high of 603p, so that target has effectively been met. For now, the upside momentum remains intact while the shares stay above recently broken resistance at 560p. The next target will need recalculating, but the trend is clearly still bullish.
One Media: breaking resistance at last: One Media is not exactly a market darling, but the chart is beginning to look more interesting. The shares have broken recent resistance around 4p. Above that, the next level to watch is the top of the falling trend channel at 4.9p. If momentum continues, this could finally be the period when the stock gets a bit of time in the sun.
Rome Resources: finally shaping up: Rome Resources is starting to look as though it may actually be on its way. The chart has a number of constructive features. The shares are now above the top of the falling trend channel, with resistance around 3.4p having been overcome. That opens the way towards the top of the rising trend channel from September, as high as 6p by the end of next month. If that target is achieved, it would be an impressive chart outcome.
Seraphim Space: still very strong: Seraphim remains one of the stronger-looking names on the list. Recent resistance at 199p has been broken, and the chart now points towards the upper parallel of the rising trend channel from September. That gives a target of 292p by the end of next month.
Xeros Technology: edging towards a golden cross: Xeros is not a stock that gets a lot of attention, but the setup is improving. The shares are breaking recent resistance in the 1.69p to 1.7p area. From there, the chart targets the top of the range at 2.4p by the end of next month. The reasoning is straightforward enough: the 50-day moving average is rising, and even the 200-day line appears to be starting to rise as well. That suggests the shares are moving towards a golden cross, with the bullish case remaining valid while price stays above the 200-day moving average at 1.54p.
Final market read
The broader tone is mixed, but the headline markets are not especially comfortable here. The FTSE and gold both look vulnerable, the DAX is hanging on but only just, and the Dow still seems likely to need another test lower before it can build properly.
By contrast, oil is strong, Bitcoin is holding up better than expected, and several of the smaller-cap charts are quietly improving with rising moving averages, breakout attempts and, in a few cases, golden-cross setups.
So while the macro picture is messy, there is still plenty to work with if you are following relative strength and chart structure closely. At the moment, selectivity matters more than ever.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
