Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, ACG Metals, CMC, Ethernity, GSTechnologies, Kooth, Raspberry PI, Sintana, Shearwater, United Oil & Gas.
Markets are sitting at an interesting point. In several cases, price has spent long enough moving sideways that the next meaningful move could be more decisive than many expect. Some charts are trying to break higher, some are still trapped in sluggish ranges, and a few remain outright weak.
Here is the latest technical picture across the major indices, crypto, commodities, and a selection of smaller stocks.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: trying to clear the logjam
The FTSE 100 is still the first chart to watch because it looks as though it may finally be ready to push through the ceiling that has held it back. The key level is around 10,580 on an end of day closing basis.
If the index can get above that, the next target becomes the April resistance area near 10,700, which could come into play early in July. In a stronger scenario, there is room for a move towards 10,900 by the end of next month. That is certainly an ambitious target, but after a lengthy traffic jam in price action, a sharper upside move would not be a surprise.
Momentum is also improving. The RSI has pushed back above the neutral 50 area, which often acts as an early clue that buyers are regaining control.
For now, the bullish view remains intact while the FTSE stays above the 50 day moving average at 10,389. A sustained break below that is not the current expectation.
DAX: still needs the breakout
The DAX has bounced from the floor of the rising trend channel that has been in place since March. That at least keeps the broader constructive setup alive.
The issue is that the index still has to deal with resistance left over from last month. If that barrier gives way in early July, the chart opens up towards the top of the March rising channel, which points to roughly 26,350 by the end of next month.
That target may look optimistic given how efficiently the DAX has gone nowhere recently, but technically that is still the upside framework.
Dow: consolidating near the highs
The Dow remains in consolidation mode, but importantly it is consolidating near the top of its range rather than unraveling.
The immediate level to track is the upper edge of the mini channel around 51,600. A break above that would put the recent spike high near 52,500 back in play. Beyond there, the November resistance line projection comes in around 53,800 by the end of next month.
On the downside, the worst case for now appears to be a retest of the 50 day moving average just above 50,000. Ideally, the Dow holds above the floor of the June channel and continues to grind upward.
Bitcoin: still on the wrong side of the big level
Crypto remains the weak area of the rundown, and Bitcoin has not done enough to change that assessment.
The market is still below 60,000, and it has not even managed to reclaim the resistance line dating back to May, which comes in around 61,000. As long as price remains below that area, the chart continues to lean lower.
The current setup points to the floor of the wedge formation around 52,000 by the end of next month. That is the bearish scenario still in play unless Bitcoin can produce a proper upside break.
Even if that bullish break arrives, the upside expectation is modest at this stage, with 65,000 acting as the obvious resistance level.
Ethereum: weaker than Bitcoin
If Bitcoin looks uncomfortable, Ethereum looks even more vulnerable.
The key damage on this chart is the move below the February low at 1,753. While Ethereum stays under that level, the risk remains that it drifts towards the floor of the falling trend channel from last August.
That channel currently points to roughly 1,300. The longer Ethereum remains beneath 1,753, the more seriously that lower target has to be taken.
Gold: soggy, but there is one support line worth respecting
Gold has lacked spark recently. It has been soft, hesitant, and generally uninspiring.
The one encouraging feature is that the market has continued to respect a support line dating back to January. That area sits around 3,910 to 3,920, and it has been tested multiple times.
While gold holds above that line, there is room for a move towards near term resistance at 4,100. Even so, that is the limit of the optimism for now.
If there is no end of day close above 4,100, it remains possible that gold slips back towards 3,900 or lower over the near term.
WTI crude: stuck around $70
Crude oil is another market lacking direction. Price is hanging around the $70 area, which is more psychologically noticeable than technically important.
From a charting point of view, support is near $68, marking the floor of the gap left from the end of February. Resistance comes in at the 200 day moving average around $74.07.
There is not much more to say about the chart than that. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory, which creates a slight bias toward a short term rebound, potentially up to the 200 day line.
Small caps and stock setups
Celsius Resources: recovery attempt needs confirmation: Celsius has suffered a nasty slide since February, and although there has been an attempt to improve the picture, it has not yet delivered enough to count as a proper recovery. The safer approach is to wait for an end of day close above the 50 day moving average. If that happens, the chart could target the 200 day moving average near 0.61p. Until then, there is still a risk that the bounce runs out of steam.
Defense Holdings: rangebound after the pullback: Defense Holdings managed to retreat from the 1.8p area, which had been the technical target from the earlier setup. Since then, the shares have looked largely rangebound. The next positive signal would be an end of day close above the 50 day moving average at 1.22p. That would put the 200 day moving average at 1.64p on the radar for the end of next month.
Empyrean Energy: worth handling with caution: Empyrean is one of those charts that makes every rally feel suspect because almost every previous attempt has ended badly. There is some support from the base of the rising trend channel around 0.04p. If the shares can manage an end of day close above the 200 day moving average at 0.057p, then the next target would be around 0.08p. Even then, this remains a stock with a habit of disappointing, so any bullish case has to be treated carefully.
UVtronic: strong bounce off the 200 day line: UVtronic has delivered one of the sharper rebounds in the batch. The key technical feature is the bounce above a rising 200 day moving average, which is usually a constructive signal. While the shares stay above the gap support around 250p, the target becomes the 50 day moving average at 342p by the end of next month. The strength of that bounce makes this one more interesting than many of the other names on the list.
Neo Energy Metals: rangebound, but improving: NEO has essentially been stuck in a range, but there are signs that it may be trying to improve. Both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages are rising, which gives the chart a steadier underlying tone. The shares recently tried to clear the 50 day moving average at around 0.90p. If they can get through that level properly, the top of the channel from December comes into view, with a possible move as high as 1.20p by the end of next month or perhaps sooner.
Ondo InsurTech: still grinding higher: Ondo has not been moving in a straight line, but the broader recovery effort is still there. The latest candle is encouraging, having opened near the low and pushed towards the high. The shares are also trading around a previous target near 6p. As long as they can hold above that area, the next target becomes 10p by the end of next month.
Pensana: one of the better setups on the day: Pensana has not been especially exciting for a while, and the chart explains why. Even so, the latest action has improved the picture. The shares are bouncing from the falling trend channel, and the RSI has pushed above the neutral 50 level, which is a useful momentum shift. The level to beat is recent resistance at 89p on an end of day close basis. Above that, the top of the channel points to around 104p, potentially by the end of next month.
Renalytix: arguably the standout chart: Renalytix looks among the strongest technical contenders in the current group. The chart already looked good previously, and it now looks even better.
There are several reasons for that:
- A rising trend channel base is in place.
- The chart shows a step-like progression higher.
- There has been consolidation above a rising 50 day moving average near the lows.
That combination often produces one of the more interesting setups from a charting perspective, especially in terms of upside potential. While the shares remain above recently broken resistance at 2.1p, the target becomes 3p by the end of next month, and possibly sooner.
Sunda Energy: ugly chart, but bullish divergence offers a lifeline: Sunder has been difficult to love. The recent price action has been poor, and the last gap down did not help matters. That said, there is bullish divergence on the chart, which can sometimes hint that the worst of the selling is beginning to exhaust itself. For now, the modest recovery target would be a move back toward the top of the gap at around 1.8p. Even if that level is reached, it would not automatically mean the shares are out of trouble, but it would at least represent a bounce from a very weak backdrop.
The broad message across the charts
The main indices still look more constructive than crypto, with the FTSE, DAX, and Dow all leaning toward upside break scenarios if resistance levels can be cleared. Gold and crude remain messy and rangebound, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are still the problem charts.
Among the smaller stocks, the more interesting technical setups appear to be in names showing improving momentum after long periods of weakness. In particular, charts that are holding above rising moving averages or breaking former resistance levels are the ones worth the closest attention.
For now, it is all about whether these markets can turn tightening ranges and repeated support tests into actual breakouts. If they do, the next month could be much livelier than the last one.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
