Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Abingdon, Amigo, Cadence, Delta Gold, EnSilica, EnergyPathways, Filtronic, Headlam, Hydrogen Utopia, Light Science, Seraphim, Smarter Web, and Westmount.
The market theme at the moment is fairly straightforward. A lot of charts are sitting at decision points, and the technicals are doing a decent job of separating the stronger setups from the weaker ones.
On the index side, there is still a cautious tone. Crypto is trying to improve materially, gold is slipping towards support, crude remains firm above the key $100 area, and a number of smaller stocks are beginning to produce some attractive breakout and recovery patterns.
Here is the rundown.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: the falling 50-day average is still in charge
The FTSE 100 had a decent candle at the end of last week, but the bigger technical picture remains under pressure. The key problem is that the RSI failed at the neutral 50 level, and that failure has effectively handed control back to the bears.
On top of that, the falling 50-day moving average, currently around 10,444, has also capped the market. That leaves the index vulnerable to another test of the lower boundary of the trend channel that has been in place since October.
The main levels to watch are:
- 10,200 as the near-term area in focus
- 10,000 as psychological support
- 9,829 near the 200-day moving average in a worse-case scenario
There was support around 10,080 back in March, so that 10,000 zone is not just round-number psychology. It has chart relevance too.
For the negative spin to be cancelled, the FTSE really needs an end-of-day close above the 50-day line. If that happens, the upside target becomes the top of the falling trend channel from February, which comes in near 10,580.
DAX: RSI rebounds are keeping the upside case alive
The DAX has been a bit less dramatic, but it is still hovering around an important technical area. The market is trading either side of the 200-day moving average near 24,100, which makes this one of those charts where the next meaningful move probably comes after a proper break rather than more drifting around the middle.
Support levels are fairly clear:
- 23,700 around the recent gap floor
- The 50-day moving average just below
On the upside, the market would ideally retest the 24,800 spike high seen last month.
That said, with oil where it is, the DAX may find it harder to produce that kind of rally quickly. The encouraging part is momentum. There have been two RSI 50 rebounds in recent sessions, and that usually implies that the next move has a better chance of being higher rather than lower.
Dow: stuck in range, with oil not helping sentiment
The Dow did not have a great session, and part of that may simply be the uncomfortable mix of elevated oil prices and stretched equity expectations. It is difficult to get too relaxed about a market pushing towards 50,000 while oil is above $100 a barrel.
For now, the Dow remains boxed inside its recent range:
- 48,800 to 50,000 is the immediate band
- 47,800 near the 50-day moving average offers secondary support
- 52,000 is the upside resistance target, corresponding to the top of a broadening triangle from November
A push to 52,000 probably needs some sort of broader geopolitical improvement. Without that, this still looks like a range market rather than a trend market.
Bitcoin: above 80,000 and finally looking like the bears are losing control
Crypto has started to get people interested again, and not without reason. Bitcoin has pushed through the 80,000 level, and that break matters because it also takes price through the top of the rising recovery channel that has been in place since February.
That combination suggests the bears are finally being squeezed out of the picture.
The initial target from here is the 200-day moving average at 83,400. That level is particularly important because Bitcoin has not been back above it since late October or early November. In practical terms, it is the main line in the sand for deciding whether the broader market should be viewed as bullish or bearish.
The supporting signals are there too:
- Multiple RSI 50 rebounds, including three clear ones recently
- A rising 50-day moving average
- A clean recovery structure from the lows seen earlier in the year
That does not guarantee a straight-line move, but technically this is a much healthier-looking Bitcoin chart than it has been for some time.
Ethereum: improving, but still lagging Bitcoin
Ethereum has been less bullish than Bitcoin, perhaps by a week or two. Even so, the chart is improving.
The key development is a breakout from the falling trend channel that had been in place since August, with price pushing through the 2,250 area. That opens up scope for a move towards 2,540, which marks the top of the rising February trend channel.
There has been a slightly messy move around the RSI 50 level, almost a little bear trap below that area, but importantly Ethereum has managed to remain above its 50-day moving average. That tends to favour continuation on the recovery rather than a fresh collapse.
The obstacle is obvious:
- 2,400 is a chunky resistance zone
If Ethereum can clear 2,400 quickly rather than grinding into it slowly, the recovery case will look much stronger.
Gold: drifting towards support and possibly towards a buy-the-dip area
Gold continues to slip. The earlier idea that 4,600 might hold as support is fading, and the chart now looks more interested in the 4,500 area, which ties in with late March support.
If 4,500 does not hold, the next obvious destination is the 200-day moving average at 4,289.
That is worth noting because dips towards the 200-day line have historically offered decent opportunities in this market. Gold has not been below that long-term average for many months, in fact not really since the early part of 2024. On that basis alone, any retreat towards the 200-day area may attract dip buyers again.
So while the short-term action is soft, the medium-term technical context still suggests that weakness into major support could become an opportunity rather than a disaster.
WTI crude oil: above $99 keeps the bullish range alive
Crude oil is still ratcheting higher and, crucially, remains on the right side of the $100 a barrel region. The support zone had been identified around prior resistance from late April, roughly $99, and that remains the line to watch.
The way this market has been trading, a $10 range tends to be the operating pattern. So if the support is 99, the working upside zone becomes roughly 99 to 109, with the market presently sitting around the middle of that band.
The scenarios are simple:
- Above 99, the market keeps the bullish bias
- Above 110, the next upside target is 120
- Below 99, a rug pull could send crude down towards the 50-day moving average at 92
At the moment, the bulls still have the better of it.
Stock charts
A number of individual names are shaping up well, particularly among the smaller-cap and more speculative end of the market. Several have either reached prior targets or are breaking through important resistance.
Abingdon Health: Has retested the previous target near 10.12p. With that level under its belt, the next target remains 14p, ideally by the end of this month. The key condition is simple enough: stay above 10p.
Amigo: Is trying to force its way through the 3.1p level. Why that level has become so important is another question, but technically it matters. Above 3.1p, the target is the top of the channel near 5p, potentially by the end of next month, while the shares hold above the 50-day moving average at 2.6p. The RSI is also behaving well, bouncing at and above the neutral 50 level, which adds weight to the bullish case.
Cadence Minerals: Has not been in focus for a little while, but the chart is improving. The stock has broken out through recent resistance around 5p. Above that, the target becomes the top of the channel, potentially as high as 8p by the end of next month, which is probably the more realistic timeframe. Ideally the shares now remain above the channel floor at 4.6p. Another encouraging feature is the repeated RSI 50 bounces since the beginning of March.
Delta Gold: One of the strongest announcements of the day came from Delta Gold, and the chart had already been moving in the right direction. 84p at the top of the January channel has already been hit. The next level, around 130p, came from the upper parallel of that move – bove 130p, the target extends towards 170p by the end of next month. For the bullish setup to stay healthy, it would help if the shares remain above the top of today’s gap at 120p. Better still, they hold above the recently broken resistance around 123p.
EnSilica: Has recovered nicely and now has a very constructive-looking chart. The standout feature is the unfilled gap to the upside through recent resistance, and that is usually a strong technical signal. Through 78p, the target becomes 94p by the end of this month, possibly sooner if momentum continues at the current pace. This is one of the cleaner small-cap setups around.
EnergyPathways: Is interesting because the price tends to move ahead of news, and it has done so again. Despite the strong price action, there was no actual announcement on the day, which may mean the market is positioning for something meaningful. The technical picture has improved on a break of recent resistance around 6p. That gives a potential move towards the top of the channel at 8.7p. The original target had been the end of this month, but at this rate it could arrive sooner. There is also a wider best-case scenario that revisits the September spike above 10p, provided the price can remain above roughly 6.6p.
Filtronic: Has already done a lot of heavy lifting. It has not only met the initial targets near 229p and 250p, but also reached the third target around 335p, and even overshot it. The immediate question now is whether the shares can stay above 335p and then retest the £4.00 level by the end of this month. If there is a pullback first, then a retest of the £3.00 area, effectively the gap floor, would not be surprising before any further move higher.
Headlam Group: Has responded well to recent chart coverage and remains constructive. The shares are above the old March resistance at 46p, and while that level holds, the target is the top of the broadening triangle from September at 67p. This is a straightforward breakout continuation story.
Hydrogen Utopia: With its jet fuel angle, is pressing against a major resistance zone around 3.3p. What is needed here is an end-of-day close above 3.3p. If that arrives, the chart opens up towards the top of the channel from this time last year at roughly 4.75p, potentially by the end of next month or sooner. The safety net is the 50-day moving average at 2.7p. As long as the shares stay above that, the chart remains recoverable.
Kodal Minerals: Has had weak price action despite production-related developments, but the chart now shows something much more interesting: a bear trap island reversal. In practical terms, the shares gapped down at the end of last month and have now gapped back up, trapping the bears. Combined with the reversal from below March support at 0.28p, that is often a powerful signal. Above 0.28p, the target is the top of the range at 0.47p by the end of next month, potentially sooner.
Light Science: Also has a bear trap island reversal look to it. The shares gapped down in March and have now gapped higher again, this time helped by contract news. As long as the price remains above the latest gap floor at 1.6p, the target becomes the resistance line from October, up towards 2.6p by the end of next month. It is a punchy call, but it is also a punchy setup.
Seraphim Space: Has found support where you would want it to, around the old resistance zone near 190p. That sort of support at former resistance is exactly what a healthy recovery looks like. Above that, the next target is a retest of the top of the price channel at 225p. The more ambitious target is up towards 290p over the course of the summer, perhaps by the end of August. Either way, the progress since the end of last year has been encouraging.
Smarter Web: Is not for the faint-hearted, but it was up 10% and is presumably getting some assistance from the move in Bitcoin. If this were a more conventional stock, the conclusion might be that it is heading for the stars. Allowing for the name involved, the working target is still an impressive 47p by the end of this month, corresponding to the top of a broadening triangle from February.
Westmount: Finishes the list with another chart that is quietly strengthening. After a sideways shuffle above a rising 200-day moving average, the shares have now broken the 50-day moving average at 3.75p. The best-case target is 7p by the end of next month, provided the stock holds above the floor of the rising trend channel at around 3.5p.
The RSI action has also been strong, staying above 50 in recent weeks, which supports the bullish reading.
What matters most right now
If there is one recurring theme across these charts, it is that RSI 50 behaviour and the major moving averages are doing a lot of the work.
Where RSI is rebounding from 50 and prices are holding above rising 50-day or 200-day averages, the setups generally look constructive. Where RSI is failing at 50 and prices are getting capped by falling averages, caution is still the better option.
That leaves the market split into two camps:
- Indices and gold still look vulnerable or at least hesitant
- Bitcoin, oil, and a cluster of smaller stocks are showing improving momentum and clearer upside patterns
For now, that is probably the cleanest way to frame the landscape. Respect the support levels, keep an eye on the moving averages, and do not ignore a good RSI 50 rebound when it appears. Quite a few of the better trades start exactly there.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
