Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Ascent, Corpus, Eleco, Genflow, Great Western, GenIP, Hardide, Incanthera, Karelian, Kosmos, Scancell, and Seraphim.
For the main indices, the question is whether the recent weakness is already done. In crypto, Bitcoin still looks relatively resilient while Ethereum has more work to do. Gold remains stuck in an awkward holding pattern, and crude is trying to turn geopolitics into a cleaner breakout.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: trying to bounce from channel support
The FTSE 100 is attempting to stabilise from the floor of a rising trend channel. That support looks to come in somewhere between 10,280 and 10,330, with the market hovering around the 10,300 area.
The key near-term trigger is the 50-day moving average, which sits around 10,430. An end-of-day close above that level would improve the picture materially and suggest the recent soft patch has run its course.
If that happens, the next obvious target is the top of the recent range near 10,650.
So the FTSE setup is simple enough:
- Support: 10,280 to 10,330
- Breakout trigger: 10,430 on a closing basis
- Upside target: 10,650
DAX: stronger than the FTSE
The DAX continues to look more buoyant than the FTSE. After the sell-off, it has already reclaimed the 50-day moving average, which is around 23,900.
That leaves the top of the recent range at 24,800 as the obvious upside objective. There is not much need to overcomplicate this one. The market has recovered a key technical level and, importantly, the RSI has remained above 50 throughout the month. That is a better look than the FTSE, which did break below its own 50-day line.
There is also a gap level around 23,800 which looks likely to be filled as part of this recovery phase.
Dow: consolidating just below the big breakout level
The Dow is currently consolidating in a fairly tight range between roughly 48,800 and just under 50,000.
The big level here is obvious. A break above 50,000 would open the way towards a 52,000 target by the end of next month, based on the November resistance projection.
On the downside, the preferred scenario is that the index holds above 47,800, where the 50-day moving average lines up with a broken February resistance line. That area should now act as support.
Bitcoin: testing the top of the recovery channel
Bitcoin is still struggling at the top of the recovery channel that has been in place since February. That naturally raises the question of whether this is simply a pause before another push higher, or whether the market is already topping out for a move lower.
The difference between now and the weaker action seen earlier in the year is that this recovery has been stronger. There is also a sharply rising 50-day moving average, while the 200-day moving average at around 84,000 is not far away.
The near-term levels to watch are:
- Breakout trigger: close above 80,000
- Upside target: 84,000
- Worst-case support: 50-day moving average at 71,900
For now, Bitcoin still has a constructive look unless it is hit by a proper rug-pull back towards that 50-day line.
Ethereum: still lagging Bitcoin
Ethereum is in a weaker technical position than Bitcoin. The struggle continues at the top of a falling trend channel that has been in place since August, and unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum is still some distance from the top of that structure.
The main upside markers are:
- Top of falling channel: 2,540
- 200-day moving average: 2,761
Those remain the targets while Ethereum can hold above its 50-day moving average at 2,194.
There are signs of strain, including a break of the uptrend line in the RSI window, but on its own that is not enough to call a full move lower. A clean break below the 50-day line would be a more convincing bearish signal.
Gold: range-bound and looking a bit tired
Gold is still trapped in a range, with support around 4,600 and resistance around the 50-day moving average at 4,856. That upper level also coincides with the top of the falling trend channel that has been in place since the end of January.
Given the size of the broader bull market in gold, the current action is not especially impressive. Still, while the metal stays above 4,600, there is at least the chance of retesting the 4,856 area.
If support gives way, the next major level is much lower at the 200-day moving average of 4,259.
WTI crude oil: geopolitics pushing the market higher
Crude oil remains one of the more interesting commodity charts, especially with the latest geopolitical issues adding momentum.
The working range had been 92 to 105, and for now that still looks like the right framework. There has been a small breakout within the broader range this week, and that points to an initial move towards 105.
An RSI rebound through 50 helped the bullish case and has already started to deliver on the upside.
The main support on any setback is the 50-day moving average at 88.67. If the geopolitical premium fades, or if there is some form of peace dividend, that is the area where the market would be expected to find support.
Small-cap stock charts to watch
Ascent Resources: quietly improving: Ascent Resources has been doing rather well without too much noise. The share price is moving back towards a retest of the area above 0.7p, with the broader target at 0.93p, based on the upper boundary of the rising trend channel from September. That target may even prove conservative if momentum improves. A break of the 0.7p area could open the way towards 1p. For now, the bullish view remains valid while the stock holds above 0.6p.
Corpus Resources: second attempt at the 200-day line: Corpus is not exactly a market favourite, but the chart is at least becoming interesting. The hope is that this second attempt at clearing the 200-day moving average at 0.015 proves successful. If it does, the target becomes the top of a broadening triangle at 0.028 by the end of next month. Ideally, the shares should remain above the 50-day moving average at 0.013, and there has also been a supportive RSI rebound through 50.
Eleco: gap through the 50-day line changes the picture: Eleco has suddenly become one of the better-looking setups after gapping through the 50-day moving average. This is exactly the sort of move that can reset sentiment quickly. With an RSI 50 rebound supporting the move, the next target is a break of 135p, which marks the top of the channel from last June. Above that, the chart points towards 160p by the end of next month.
Genflow: newsflow helping the recovery case: Genflow has had a decent announcement and the chart is trying to force a move through the upside gap area at 2.25p. If that level gives way, the shares could move as high as 3.5p by the end of next month. This is one of those setups where the chart and the company news are finally starting to work together.
Great Western Mining: support respected, upside back in focus: Great Western Mining has been talked about as a possible future market favourite, and the chart is still encouraging. The shares have found support at the old target of 2.75p. While that level holds, the focus turns to 4.15p by the end of next month. In chart terms, this is one of the cleaner examples of an old target turning into a new base.
GenIP: bullish divergence and a rising channel: GenIP has had supportive distribution news and the technical backdrop is constructive as well. The chart shows a classic rising trend channel base, and there is also bullish divergence in play. While the shares remain above the 50-day moving average at 9.89p, the upside target is the top of the range and the top of the channel at 13p by the end of next month.
Hardide: contracts keep landing and the chart keeps responding: Hardide continues to benefit from a steady stream of contract wins, and that is feeding straight into the share price and the chart pattern. The stock has been in a rising trend channel since December, with the top of the channel now pointing towards 52p. That target could be reached as soon as the end of next month, provided the shares stay above former resistance at 35p on a closing basis.
Incanthera: bullish divergence despite lower lows: Incanthera is one of the more interesting turnaround-style charts. Although the shares have made lower lows during April, the RSI is holding at roughly the same level seen back in June last year. That creates a potential bullish divergence. The first target is naturally the 50-day moving average at 1.8p, but if the stock avoids making fresh lows, there is scope for a move as high as 3.2p by the end of next month.
At the moment, it does not look like new lows are imminent, which keeps the recovery case alive.
Karelian Diamond: heading back towards the triangle target: Karelian is pushing back towards its triangle-top target of 1p. If that level is broken, the next objective becomes the upper parallel of the resistance line at 1.55p by the end of next month. The main condition is that the shares hold above 0.8p. As long as they do, the chart remains on the right side of neutral.
Kosmos Energy: pressing against triangle resistance: Kosmos is also sitting up near the top of a triangle pattern, with resistance around 226p. A break above that would target the upper parallel of the pattern at 328p. The preferred timing is by the end of May, although allowing until the end of June would be the more cautious approach.
Scancell Holdings: FDA-related news gives the chart a lift: Scancell has had supportive FDA-related news and the chart has responded positively. The initial target is 14.7p, and above that the upper parallel points to as much as 18p. The constructive view holds while the stock remains above the 50-day moving average at 12.6p. Again, an RSI rebound above 50 adds weight to the bullish reading.
Seraphim Space: space remains hot: Space-related shares are still very much in favour, and Seraphim is participating in that move. The stock has already reached the previous target around 225p. Above that, the next upside objective is the upper boundary of the rising trend channel at 290p by the end of next month. Ideally, the shares should now stay above 200p to keep the momentum intact.
The common thread across the charts
A few themes are repeating across the market:
- 50-day moving averages matter. Many of these charts are either reclaiming them, testing them, or using them as support.
- RSI rebounds through 50 are showing up regularly, particularly in the stronger setups.
- Channel tops and range highs are the main targets, rather than wildly ambitious upside projections.
- Relative strength matters. The DAX looks stronger than the FTSE, and Bitcoin looks stronger than Ethereum.
That gives the market a fairly practical feel right now. This is less about making heroic predictions and more about respecting the levels. If key resistance breaks, there is room for decent upside. If support goes, several of these charts would quickly turn much less attractive.
For now, there are enough constructive patterns on the board to suggest that recent weakness in parts of the market may be close to ending, but the confirmation still needs to come from price.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
