Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Avacta, Bezant, Coil, Filtronic, Guardian Metal, Mila, Neo, Pantheon, and Phoenix Copper.
The market tone has shifted again, with overnight weakness in oil feeding into the index picture and a few important technical levels now mattering a lot more than they did only a few sessions ago. Some charts are stabilising, some are still wobbling, and a handful of small caps continue to look surprisingly constructive.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Here is the state of play across the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, WTI crude, and a selection of UK shares, including Avacta, Bezant, Coil, Filtronic, Guardian Metal, Mila, Neo, Pantheon, and Phoenix Copper.
FTSE 100: back through the 50-day line, but keep expectations measured
The FTSE 100 has benefited from the overnight drop in the oil price, and technically that has helped push the index back through the 50-day moving average at 10,327.
That matters because the market has spent a good deal of time bouncing from the lower boundary of the broader rising channel that has been in place since October. That floor comes in around 10,190, and it has repeatedly provided support.
If the FTSE can now secure an end-of-day close above the 50-day line, the next obvious area to look at is the May resistance zone near 10,500. That is the near-term upside objective. Looking much beyond that may be a little premature for now.
The momentum backdrop has improved too. The RSI is back above 50, sitting just under 52, which gives bulls something to work with. If sentiment improves further and geopolitical pressure eases, there is a case for a move as high as 10,800 by the end of next month. That is the more optimistic scenario and clearly depends on the Iran situation either fading or being resolved.
On the downside, the key warning sign would be an end-of-day close back below 10,190. If that gives way, the next support levels to monitor are 10,150 and then around 10,080, which marks initial March support.
DAX: still avoiding the deeper pullback
The DAX continues to hold up rather well. There had been concern that a retreat to the 50-day moving average might be needed, but that was avoided, which is a respectable effort given the backdrop.
The 50-day line is around 23,749, and as long as the market remains above that rising average, the path of least resistance still looks higher. In the near term, there is room to trade within the range up to the May resistance area near 25,200, which also coincides with the top of the February gap down.
If the DAX can hold above the 50-day line, then a retest of the highs around 25,500 remains on the table. The more ambitious upside target is around 26,000, which lines up with a projected June 2025 resistance line.
Dow Jones: a little untidy, but momentum still favours the upside
The Dow has not yet fully absorbed the benefit of lower oil prices, so the chart is still a touch neutral in the very short term. There is also a question mark over the uptrend line from March, which appears to have been broken around 49,700.
To restore the stronger bullish picture, the index really needs to reclaim that area. If it does, the broader target remains the November resistance line projection near 52,700 by the end of next month.
If there is a sharper pullback, the first significant cushion is the 50-day moving average near 48,000. Ideally, however, the market stays above recent support around 48,700.
The encouraging part is momentum. The RSI is comfortably above 50, which usually suggests the index is more likely to head higher than to roll over dramatically.
Bitcoin: hanging on above the 50-day line
Bitcoin has begun to flirt with the idea of a move back towards the February support area, but so far it has done enough to stay constructive.
The key level is the 50-day moving average at 75,850. As long as Bitcoin remains above that, there is still a live chance of a push towards the 200-day moving average at 81,270.
If the chart can build from there, the best-case scenario is a move to 90,000 plus by the end of next month. The problem, for now, is momentum. The RSI is still below 50, around 45, which means it is too early to declare victory.
In practical terms, the market may still need a proper test of the 50-day line rather than the near-miss seen so far. If that support survives, the bullish case remains alive.
Ethereum: trying to hold the floor of the uptrend
Ethereum has eased back to the lower boundary of its rising channel from February, with that floor around 2,110.
While the price stays above that area, there is scope for a rebound towards the 50-day moving average at 2,262. That is the immediate recovery objective.
If the market cannot recover quickly above the 50-day line, the chart remains vulnerable to a deeper move towards the main support area near 1,900, which could still come into play later this month or in June.
Gold: a disappointing setup for now
Gold is not looking especially convincing at the moment. The market is toying with the uptrend line from October, which comes in around 4,580, but for now it is trading below that area.
While gold stays under that uptrend line, the risk is for a retreat towards the 200-day moving average at 4,355. That is now the key downside magnet.
The 50-day moving average at 4,707 is falling sharply, which adds pressure. On top of that, there is the possibility that gold remains trapped in a falling trend channel from January, and the recent RSI failure above 50 does not help.
In short, it is not a particularly attractive setup right now. If the market does recover, the best upside objective would be the top of that channel around 4,900, but that would require an end-of-day close back above the 50-day moving average.
WTI crude oil: trapped between resistance and key support
Crude oil has effectively run into a ceiling at the resistance line from March near 105.80. Until that breaks, the market remains vulnerable to another test lower.
The obvious downside area is the 50-day moving average and the floor of the channel from January, both converging around the important 97.60 level.
That leaves crude in a fairly clear technical range for now:
- Support: 97.60
- Resistance: 105.80 to 106.00
Stocks in focus
Avacta: rebound from old resistance keeps the bulls interested: Avacta has spent plenty of money, but the chart itself has held together better than some might have expected. The shares have bounced from the old resistance area around 80p, and that former ceiling now looks like useful support. Above 80p, the target remains the top of the rising channel, which points to around 95p. That could be seen by the end of this month, though allowing until the end of June is the more sensible approach. All told, the market still appears to have a soft spot for Avacta.
Bezant: gap strength and a rising 200-day line: Bezant continues to look constructive. The 200-day moving average is rising, and after the gap higher last month the shares have actually been too strong to come back and fill it. That is usually a sign that buyers are still in control. The floor of the gap sits at 0.0707p, and while the stock stays above that level, the target is 0.12p by the end of next month. The RSI has also moved back above 50, adding to the positive case. For those who prefer confirmation, a cautious strategy would be to wait for an end-of-day close above the 50-day moving average just over 0.08.
Coil Therapeutics: wedge breakout with signs of accumulation: Coil Therapeutics is not a chart that gets a great deal of airtime, but technically it has become more interesting. The shares have broken out of a falling wedge, and the candles since the 23rd of April have been notably strong. In particular, sessions opening near the low and closing near the high suggest somebody may be accumulating stock. The initial upside objective is just under 14p, which is where the 200-day moving average sits. That target remains in play while the shares hold above the 50-day moving average at 8.75p.
Filtronic: a standout chart with more upside while 410p holds: Filtronic remains one of the more eye-catching setups. Several targets have already been met over the past month or so, including moves through roughly 230p, 250p and 330p. The next leg has been shaping towards 450p. Even so, the chart still appears to have room left in it. As long as the shares hold above recent resistance around 410p, the focus shifts to the top of the black rising channel from March, which projects as high as 560p by the end of next month. Above 410p, the technical bias remains firmly upward.
Guardian Metal: back in business after a dip below channel support: Guardian Metal dipped a little further than expected, sliding below the floor of the rising trend channel around 215p. However, support eventually appeared around the old March low, and the subsequent gap higher has improved the tone again. An end-of-day close above the 50-day moving average at 252p would strengthen the recovery case. If that happens, the shares look capable of returning to the highs and perhaps pushing beyond them. The target area is 320p to 330p over the next month or so, corresponding to the top of the December rising trend channel.
Mila: a punchy chart with a punchy target: Mila could turn into the next chart that catches traders by surprise. The technical base is there: The 50-day moving average is rising – The 200-day moving average is rising. The shares have bounced above the rising 200-day line at 1.39p. While the stock stays above that level, the target is the top of the range and the top of the channel from July, pointing to as high as 2.06p by the end of next month. It is an aggressive call, but then again it is quite an aggressive chart.
Neo Energy: still room after the early call below 0.60p: Neo has already rewarded attention from lower levels, having been highlighted below 0.60p, but there still appears to be more in the tank. The chart is working its way towards the top of the triangle pattern that has been building since December, and that projects to around 1.3p by the end of next month or possibly sooner. The RSI rebound from 50 supports the move and keeps the technical picture healthy.
Pantheon: oil strength has helped, but can momentum continue?: Rising oil prices have lifted Pantheon along with much of the sector, and the shares have already moved through the previous target around 16p. The next upside objective is 20.5p by the end of next month, which matches post-December resistance on the chart. The key question now is whether the stock can keep extending after that initial oil-led boost.
Phoenix Copper: an early recovery, but still a wild card: Phoenix Copper is the speculative wild card of the list, and probably too wild for many. Even so, there are some early signs of recovery. The 50-day moving average is rising, and there is also an uptrend line developing in the RSI window. For now, the immediate aim is a return to the top of the range at around 1.25p. If that breaks, the next target would be roughly half the distance of the old gap between 1.2p and 2p, implying a move towards 1.6p next month. That said, any more ambitious recovery would probably need some meaningful funding news behind it.
Final technical take
The broad market picture is mixed but not broken. The FTSE 100 and DAX are trying to regain their footing, the Dow still has momentum on its side, and crypto is at a point where support levels need to do their job quickly.
Gold looks weak unless it can reclaim key moving average resistance, while crude is still boxed into a defined trading range. Among the smaller stocks, there are several charts worth noting, especially where price action is being confirmed by rising moving averages, RSI support and unfilled bullish gaps.
For now, the best setups are the ones where price is holding above rising trend support and momentum is beginning to improve. The ones to be wary of are the charts where the 50-day line is falling, RSI is failing at 50, or support is only just holding by a thread.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
