Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude Oil, BMV, Block, Delta Gold, Gfinity, hVIVO, Hamak, Mobico, Orosur, Altona, T42, Wildcat, and Zenith.
Some of these setups are still only potential breakouts. Others already look as though the market has made up its mind. Either way, this is a good point to separate the charts that are merely stabilising from the ones that may be setting up for a stronger move into late April and May.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Major indices
FTSE 100: pushing back towards resistance
The FTSE 100 is heading back towards recent resistance in the 10,650 area. That is the near-term hurdle. An end of day close above that red resistance line would improve the picture materially and could open the way back towards the highs.
What is notable here is where the index sits within its range. With both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages rising, the market is effectively leaning towards a more optimistic geopolitical outcome. That may be a punchy assumption, but it is what the chart is implying.
On the support side:
- 10,444 marks the 50-day moving average and the obvious first support
- The lower boundary of the rising trend channel from October comes in around 10,336
If the market can hold those levels, the broader uptrend stays alive. At the top of that rising channel, there is room as high as 11,200, although that would likely need a far calmer backdrop in the Middle East than has been the case for some time.
DAX: another attempt at the moving average barrier
The DAX is having another go at the area around the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, centred near 24,100. If that zone gives way, the next objective is a gap fill up to 24,500, potentially later this month.
On the downside, the floor of the recent gap at 23,400 looks important and already showed signs of working as support. The market came close to that level and bounced, which gives the setup some credibility.
One of the more encouraging technical signals here is the RSI 50-plus rebound. When RSI bounces cleanly from above the neutral 50 line, it often points to renewed upside momentum rather than just a dead cat bounce. In this case, it supports the idea that the DAX may continue higher, at least through the 200-day line and towards that second gap from last month.
Dow: breakout from the falling channel
The Dow has done what was needed by breaking out of its falling trend channel, with the key level around 48,300 now cleared on a closing basis.
That shifts the focus towards the old February resistance area just under 49,800. A move into the 49,700 to 49,800 zone by the end of the month looks plausible if the breakout sticks.
From here, the main requirement is to hold above the 50-day moving average at 48,000 on an end of day close basis. Even if there are intraday dips, ideally those should remain above the 200-day moving average near 46,800.
Crypto
Bitcoin: finally shaking itself awake
Bitcoin has started to revive and the key development is the break above the falling trend channel that has been in place since October. The breakout level was around $72,000.
Above that, the chart targets become:
- $75,000
- $79,000, which marks resistance on the way down
There are a few reasons the move looks technically credible. First, there have been two RSI 50 rebounds, including one earlier in the month and another from above the neutral 50 zone. Second, the 50-day moving average is rising, which had already started to hint at a turnaround.
As long as Bitcoin remains above $72,000, the market has scope for more upside. If there is a rug pull, the first favoured destination would be the 50-day line at $69,400.
Ethereum: improving, but not clear yet
Ethereum is not quite as advanced as Bitcoin. It has broken out of a converging triangle, with the key level around $2,380, but it still has work to do before clearing the top of the broader falling trend channel.
The next resistance is around $2,440, which marks the upper edge of that channel dating back to August. If Ethereum can push through there, then the more ambitious target is the 200-day moving average near $2,902.
That may look a long way off from current levels, so the immediate job is simpler: get into the $2,430 to $2,440 zone and prove that the falling channel is finally being left behind.
Commodities
Gold: still rangebound, but trying to turn up
Gold remains in a range, but the tone is beginning to improve. The ceiling is still defined by the 50-day moving average and the top of the falling trend channel, both clustered around 4,903.
An end of day close above that area would be the signal needed to open the way towards 5,200 plus, which corresponds to March resistance on the way down.
Support now appears to be coming in around 4,600, or a little above. The chart has also been helped by RSI moving back above 50, which suggests momentum is shifting the right way. On balance, it looks as though gold may get back on the right side of 5,000 relatively soon.
WTI crude: still living inside the range
Crude oil has been rocky, but the broad picture still looks like a range trade rather than a trend move. The key channel floor sits around $95, which aligns with the working view that the market is oscillating between $95 and $105.
If that support breaks, then the lower range becomes $95 down to $85. That sort of downside extension would probably need some tangible progress on peace talks.
For now, though, the chart is still behaving as a range rather than a breakdown.
Small-cap stock charts
Bluebird: recovery gathering momentum: Bluebird has produced a decent recovery and the move has started to build on itself. The shares have broken recent resistance at 0.09p and also moved through the first target at 0.15p. The next level to watch is 0.32p, especially while the price holds above current support around 0.19p. Even in a less aggressive scenario, a retest of 0.15p could simply be a reset before another push towards 0.32p.
Block Energy: finally having its day: Block Energy looks as though it is finally getting the recognition the chart has been hinting at. The target near the top of the channel at 1.8p looked optimistic not long ago, but the shares have now reached that area. The current setup suggests: Support should now come in around the old January resistance at 1.4p. There is potential for a move up towards 1.9p. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising, and the break through resistance is a bullish signal in its own right.
Delta Gold: from Aquis star to AIM hopeful: Delta Gold has been one of the standout performers of the year to date. The chart remains strong, but there is still one key hurdle to clear. The shares need an end of day close above the old March resistance around 68p to 69.5p. If that happens, the next target is as high as 84p. The technical case is solid enough. The turnaround was signalled by a bounce above a rising 50-day moving average, which is often a very reliable continuation signal, and the RSI 50-plus rebound adds to that constructive picture. In the meantime, recent resistance at 60p should now act as support.
Gfinity: relief after messy price action: Gfinity has had rather untidy trading around the 200-day moving average at 0.057p, but the good news is that the shares now look to have pushed through that zone. After already meeting an initial target area, the chart now points towards 0.09p by the end of next month. Ideally, the shares stay on the right side of 0.06p. Again, one of the more constructive details is the presence of a couple of RSI 50-plus rebounds, suggesting the move has more behind it than simple short covering.
hVIVO: emerging from the wilderness: After what has felt like a couple of years in the wilderness, hVIVO may finally be on the way back. The latest move above the 200-day moving average puts the focus on the top of the rising trend channel from last summer, which comes in around 10.5p. That is the target by the end of next month, provided the shares remain above recent swing lows at 7.1p on an end of day close basis.
Hamak: bear trap rebound with some bite: Hamak is starting to show a bit more life. The shares have pushed through the 50-day moving average at 0.96p and there is a visible wall of RSI support behind the move. That leaves the top of the falling trend channel at 1.46p as a possible destination by the end of next month. It is certainly a punchy call, but it is also a relatively punchy chart. The move has the look of a bear trap rebound after the break below February support at 0.94p.
Mobico Group: unloved, but technically improving: Mobico may not be attracting much excitement, but the chart is trying to improve. The target here is the top of the falling trend channel at 30p, potentially by the end of next month, while support holds around 20p. The shares have already broken the 50-day line around 22p, and that leaves room for a stronger spring recovery if momentum starts to build.
Orosur: trying to clear October resistance: Orosur is setting up for a possible breakout through the resistance line from October around 22p. If one wants to be fussy, the 50-day moving average at 22.3p is the cleaner level to watch. An end of day close above that zone would support a best-case move towards 30p by the end of this month. The RSI has pushed above 50 for the first time since early February, which is encouraging. So too is the fact that the price is moving higher above a sharply rising 200-day moving average.
Altona: right at the barrier: Altona is now pressing against the February resistance line at around 3.75p. That is the level that needs to give way on an end of day close basis in order to open up the possibility of 5p plus by the end of next month. As long as the shares stay above the channel floor around 3.2p, the setup remains constructive.
T42: one target hit, next one in sight: T42 has already reached the initial target around 4.75p. The next step is an end of day close above that level, which would then put the spotlight on 2024 resistance near 6p by the end of next month. The key support to keep an eye on is the old broken resistance at 3.6p. Holding above that is probably the most important part of the setup now.
Wildcat: explosive move after the name change: Wildcat has had a very strong few sessions and the recent name change has only added a bit more colour to the story. The shares are up more than 100% over five days, which is a fairly direct answer to the cynics. Technically, the move through the 200-day moving average at 0.069p is significant. The initial target remains 0.086p. Even if there is a pullback after that, the ideal outcome is for the shares to remain above the 50-day line at 0.055p. If 0.086p is cleared, there is not a great deal of resistance until around 0.13p.
Zenith: chart brightens after Tunisia development: Zenith rounds things off on an increasingly interesting note. Following acknowledgement from the Republic of Tunisia regarding some of the company’s oil claims, the overall situation looks brighter. From a chart perspective, the next target is 11.22p, while the shares remain above the old March resistance at 8.7p, which has now become support.
What stands out across the board
A few themes keep repeating across these charts:
- End of day closes above resistance matter more than intraday spikes
- Rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages are giving several markets a stronger backdrop
- RSI rebounds above 50 are showing up repeatedly and often marking continuation rather than just relief rallies
- Old resistance turning into support remains one of the cleanest signs that a breakout is genuine
At index level, the FTSE, DAX and Dow are all trying to edge higher, though each still has its own proof point to deliver. In crypto, Bitcoin looks more convincing than Ethereum for now. Gold is improving but still needs a proper close above resistance. Oil remains a range trade unless and until peace headlines force a repricing.
Among the small caps, the more interesting names are the ones where resistance has already been broken and moving averages are rising underneath price. That tends to be where momentum has the best chance of becoming a trend rather than fading after a few sessions.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
