Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude, Arkle, BMV, Ceres Power, Connecting Excellence, 80 Mile, Kazera, Quadrise, Sunda, THG.
Thursday’s theme is simple: price is trying to stabilise, but the bigger index levels and “line in the sand” support zones are still doing most of the talking. When markets rally, traders watch whether they can hold the recent support. When markets fall, they watch whether the next major moving average or channel floor actually stops the decline.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
FTSE 100: reclaimed support, then oil dragged the mood back
The FTSE 100 managed to bounce back above an earlier March support level on a closing basis, with a key reference at 10,082. That gave a “maybe upwards” signal rather than “definitely downwards”.
But the move didn’t hold. Price has since given back the improvement, and the market remains vulnerable as long as it’s not clearly reclaiming resistance.
Levels traders are watching
- Immediate support: 9,839 (end of day close basis). A loss here opens the door to further weakness.
- Next downside area: the 200-day line at 9,632.
- Upside trigger: regain 10,080 (then you can start thinking about a move towards the 50-day line at 10,354).
- Near-term friction: there appears to be a “block” just above 10,100, so rallies may struggle unless that supply clears.
DAX: abandoned baby-style gap and downtrend pressure
The DAX has been “gapping up and down” recently, and the latest action shows a gap up followed by a gap down. Candlestick-wise, that combination resembles an abandoned baby type situation, which traders typically treat as a warning that the clean directional move can fail quickly.
The near-term focus is support. If support breaks, you don’t just get “a bit more red”. You get momentum to the next structural floor.
Levels to know
- Support today: around 22,300.
- If lower: the next floor is channel territory, currently heading towards around 21,500.
Dow: blocked by the 200-day line, risk still points down
The Dow has been edging towards its 200-day moving average at 46,600, but the market is currently stuck under it. That matters because the “directional odds” shift depending on whether the index can close through that longer-term line.
With other markets setting the tone earlier, the risk is that the Dow slides back down towards the channel floor.
Upside and downside signposts
- Downside risk: 44,600, the floor of the falling trend channel from December.
- Bullish requirement: an end of day close through the 200-day line to open the path towards the 50-day moving average (mentioned around 46,600 to 46,000 area) and possibly higher towards the top of that December channel.
- Current state: price appears “blocked” by the 200-day line, so bulls have work to do.
Bitcoin: calm vs equities, but RSI back under 50 is a warning
Crypto has been relatively steady compared to equities. Bitcoin is moving either side of its 50-day moving average, which sits around 68,800 (the blue line on the chart).
While Bitcoin remains above that line, traders have a route to the top of the channel near 75,000. If the market rolls over, 65,000 is the more immediate “median low” support area.
The bigger concern is momentum. The RSI has pushed back below RSI 50, and if price breaks the relevant RSI uptrend line (around the low-40s on the RSI scale), that can act like a trigger for a move down towards 65,000 or even lower.
Ethereum: broken RSI uptrend and the 1,900 area becomes key
Ethereum is weaker today and the drop is more meaningful than a casual dip. The RSI uptrend that was holding the market above the hope zone has been broken.
There is still some hope if Ethereum can hold above roughly 2,041, but the discipline is clear: an end of day close below 2,041 changes the outlook quickly.
Key numbers
- Support / hope zone: 2,041 (watch for end of day closes).
- Next area if it breaks: 1,900.
- Upside: the top of the near-term falling trend channel around 12,310, but that looks far away given current price action.
Gold: recovery attempt after the “rugpull”, but the 200-day line is the real anchor
Gold’s picture is framed as a market trying to recover and regroup after a nasty recent drop. There’s a block at old support, with attention around the 4,550 region.
While price remains under that block, gold has a chance of testing the 200-day moving average around 4,108. The key point is that the expectation is not for gold to collapse much further soon. Instead, traders are looking for support around that 200-day area.
WTI crude oil: range trade, but geopolitical risk keeps the ceiling flexible
WTI is settling into a familiar kind of range: mid 80s to lower 90s. Despite down days, there have still been blue candles recently. That detail matters because it suggests buyers are stepping in even when headlines look bad.
The constructive condition here is holding above the floor of a rising trend channel from January, around $86. If that holds, traders are looking higher, potentially towards $110 by roughly the end of next month, depending on how geopolitical “shenanigans” evolve.
Bottom line: indices are still fighting over major trend and moving-average levels. Crypto is comparatively calmer, but RSI turning points in Bitcoin and Ethereum are the kind of “small change” that can lead to big follow-through. On the AIM watchlist, the best setups tend to be the ones with both structure (channels, triangles) and momentum logic (RSI divergence and “close above” triggers).
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
